Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[Sandy]

1 hour ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

I agree. With Bahk's gimpy knee and age, and with Nijman becoming an unrestricted FA next year, the T position is at critical. I'll be looking for the Packers to pick up one of the top Ts at 15. Paris Johnson is my fav, but I'd settle for Jones or Wright. 

I'm all for o-line in the first this year, but I'm of the belief that PJJ will be gone in the top 10 and that there is some credibility to the work ethic rumors cropping up around Wright. So I'm pretty sure the pick comes down to which of Jones or JSN are there, and if both are gone we'll trade down.

Edited April 21, 2023 by Sandy

[smetana34]

41 minutes ago, R T said:

A week ago, the over/under on total number of WR's in the first round was 4.5, they have lower it to 3.5. Still, plenty of room from 1 WR in the first round for you to cash.

NFL Betting Odds & Lines: 2023 Draft - Pick Number | DraftKings Sportsbook 

Free money. Good thinking. Can't use Draft Kings in WI. I'll find a way around it though

[R T]

4 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

Free money. Good thinking. Can't use Draft Kings in WI. I'll find a way around it though

I got in with the under 4.5 about 10 days ago, feeling pretty confident with that ticket right now. 

[incognito_man]

52 minutes ago, squire12 said:

curious to what you and others would need from JSN over the first 4 years of his career to make the pick worth it at 15?

would any of the below be enough?

• 1 year of 1200 yards (around 70/game) // 90 rec // 9 TD's
• 2 years of over 1000 yards //  75 rec // 7 TD's
• 3 years of over 800 yards //  60 rec // 5 TD's

Hard to say without knowing the opportunity cost of the other premiums that were available and how slot WRs acquired much later also perform.

I find it really unlikely JSN will outperform a number of other later selected WRs to justify that pick. 

[squire12]

15 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Hard to say without knowing the opportunity cost of the other premiums that were available and how slot WRs acquired much later also perform.

I find it really unlikely JSN will outperform a number of other later selected WRs to justify that pick. 

you can say that about just about any player in any draft. 

so who are the later round projected WR you feel could outperform JSN?  or are you playing it safe and taking the field?

[beekay414]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

He's just flat out not worth that pick IMO

Flat out wrong IMO 🙃

Edited April 22, 2023 by beekay414

[incognito_man]

9 minutes ago, squire12 said:

you can say that about just about any player in any draft. 

so who are the later round projected WR you feel could outperform JSN?  or are you playing it safe and taking the field?

Yeah no schit you can ha. Trying to reduce "was this a good pick" into a simple stat question is elementary. That's the point. There's a lot of variables involved and a slot WR is not worth that pick with what's sure to be better value players available. 

[squire12]

1 minute ago, beekay414 said:

Flat out wrong IMO

so what is the return on investment that would make JSN worth it at pick 15?  over the course of his rookie contract (4 years) what are the thresholds you think he needs to hit?  I posted some above 

[squire12]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

Yeah no schit you can ha. Trying to reduce "was this a good pick" into a simple stat question is elementary. That's the point. There's a lot of variables involved and a slot WR is not worth that pick with what's sure to be better value players available. 

if it is elementary, then it should be reasonably easy.  stating that there are more variables involved implies that it is not elementary.  

what would make other players better value?  is it mainly positional over WR?

[Uffdaswede]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

so what is the return on investment that would make JSN worth it at pick 15?  over the course of his rookie contract (4 years) what are the thresholds you think he needs to hit?  I posted some above 

Not to butt in, but as I thought about it, it may not be as simple as numbers. (Yeah, nerds, I said it!) If a receiver torches other teams under typical coverages, the defenses may be forced to roll resources that way, allowing other offensive opportunities. So the numbers may regress to just pretty good, but the total impact is more than just numbers.

Just a thought about how impact receivers are impactful. 

[beekay414]

9 minutes ago, squire12 said:

so what is the return on investment that would make JSN worth it at pick 15?  over the course of his rookie contract (4 years) what are the thresholds you think he needs to hit?  I posted some above 

60 yards a game over the course of his rookie deal. Won't do bulk numbers because of injuries and other factors but 60 yards a game is about 1000 yards of production in a 17 game season. 

[incognito_man]

9 minutes ago, squire12 said:

if it is elementary, then it should be reasonably easy.  stating that there are more variables involved implies that it is not elementary.  

what would make other players better value?  is it mainly positional over WR?

Reducing a decision of "is he worth the pick" to receiving stats is elementary.

Actually determining if he was worth it involves a lot more variables.

[squire12]

1 minute ago, beekay414 said:

60 yards a game over the course of his rookie deal. Won't do bulk numbers because of injuries and other factors but 60 yards a game is about 1000 yards of production in a 17 game season. 

agree on the bulk stats.  I think 1 or 2 boom years in years 3/4 may make it a worthwhile pick

[incognito_man]

JSN is also now a bigger injury risk. Bulk stats matter.

[squire12]

4 minutes ago, Uffdaswede said:

Not to butt in, but as I thought about it, it may not be as simple as numbers. (Yeah, nerds, I said it!) If a receiver torches other teams under typical coverages, the defenses may be forced to roll resources that way, allowing other offensive opportunities. So the numbers may regress to just pretty good, but the total impact is more than just numbers.

Just a thought about how impact receivers are impactful. 

fully agree.  but that is aspect is also hard to judge unless you have insight into how other teams /defenses are adjusting coverages specifically to a player.