QB or Not QB-That is is Question

[Just Want A Title]

This year's QB class has lost a bit of luster compared to how folks were evaluating some prospects early in the draft.  It would be a pretty big reach to describe Jared Goff as a franchise QB.  At some point the Lions are going to have to find a long-term answer at QB who can work with Jameson Williams, Amon Ra St Brown and company to create a dynamic passing game.  That said:

Free Agency/Trade:  I don't see any legitimate options that are better than Jared Goff.  Even if Baltimore let Lamar Jackson test the market, he is not a deep-ball QB.  Re-treads like Jimmy G or Geno Smith won't cut it either.  We might be able to upgrade our back-up QB but that is about all that can be realistically expected.

Draft:  Whether it be this year or next year, the draft seems like our only realistic option.  There isn't a super-clean prospect like Trevor Lawrence in this draft:  Thoughts on the the various prospects:

Bryce Young:  He has everything you look for except for size.  Listed at 5'11" and 195 Lbs, you have to wonder if he can hold up to the rigors of the NFL game

CJ Stroud:  He has good size, great mechanics and very good production.  The question is whether or not he is more of a system QB who may not have a lot of success when the play breaks down and he is forced to improvise to make a play.  The track record of recent Ohio St QBs in the NFL has to give evaluators a reason to be a little more cautious.

Will Levis:  He has all of the physical tools you look for and shows good toughness but his production is inconsistent.  There were some pretty obvious mistakes made by his receivers throughout the year and his O-line play wasn't great.  That may have contributed to the inconsistency.  Is that what was holding him back or was he a bit over-hyped at the beginning of the season?

Michael Penix Jr:  He is a good runner and has solid accuracy on short as well as intermediate routes but his accuracy wanes when he throws deep passes.  His size is solid being listed at 6'3", 215.  Does he have the upside that is similar to Jalen Hurts?  Can his so-so accuracy on long-balls be coached up?

Anthony Richardson:  He has great size, runs the ball well and has great arm-strength.  However, his mechanics seem inconsistent and that creates accuracy issues.  His athletic tools are elite.  However, it seems like he is still a better athlete than QB at this point with a high boom-bust potential.  If he puts things together he could be a franchise QB for sure but if he doesn't his path to success could lie as a WR/TE.  Staying in school for anther year would be best for his development but someone will draft him high because of his tools/potential

Cameron Ward:  He is a little short but otherwise has good physical tools.  He is a good runner when things break down but doesn't make as many plays outside the pocket as a passer as you might think.  Most of the knocks on his game, other than his height, can be coached up.  At least is seems that way to me.

Max Duggan:  He doesn't get a lot of press because he plays for TCU but has developed nicely as a prospect.  He has decent size being listed at 6'2" and 210 Lbs.  It isn't great and probably will need to add some weight to deal the physical demands of playing in the NFL.  That said, he is a good runner with good arm strength.  He has shown he can make throws to all levels of the field.  He can make plays as a runner and make throws outside the pocket when a play breaks down.  He is an experienced starter with consistently good accuracy.  

Bo Nix:  He had a good year playing for Oregon after transferring to Oregon from Auburn.  He has decent size and does well on short as well as intermediate throws.  He has solid mobility and moves the chains with his legs.  The question with him is which QB is he:  The one who put up middling numbers at Auburn or the one who has played really well at Oregon?

It seems like we will have draft picks that will allow us to take any approach we want.  We will have a couple of first rounds pick to use on one of the prospects is evaluated to be worth that pick.  Having two second-round picks picks will give us the flexibility to use a one of those on a developmental QB.  without neglecting the rest of the roster.  

Personally, I think the Lions will pass on a QB in the first round.  I could definely see the Lions drafting Michael Penix Jr, Cameron Ward (if he declares), or Max Duggan outside the first round.  The most likely first-round QB would be Will Levis but I could see Brad Holmes swinging for fences with Anthony Richardson because his upside is huge.  Thoughts?

 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Just Want A Title
Forgot something

[Sllim Pickens]

Key guys you missed below:

Hendon Hooker - Mobile QB with a great arm strength and accuracy.  Not the quickest to read plays but can make plays with his legs if needed.  He has been over 65% every year as a starter and at nearly 70% this year with over 9.5 yards per attempt which means he isnt throwing a bunch of screens to get there.  Does have a tendancy to take sacks which is somewhat concerning on his vision and feel in the pocket. Biggest issue is his age, being 25 which is 2 years older than Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields who both have 2 years of NFL experience at 23.  

Tanner McKee - Great size at 6'6" and 230lbs.  Solid arm with really good accuracy but playing with no NFL talent around him.  Has solid mechanics and footwork which lead to that great accuracy and ability to lead WRs allowing YAC. Very similar to Levis IMO with concerns over production but wondering if its an outdated offensive system and talent around him or if its his abilities.  Given his WRs 

Grayson McCall - Solid size at 6'3" 220 and has really great stats at a small school.  Has had a down year for him with a 68.9% completions down from 73% last year and his yards per attempt dropped under 10 from 11.5 last year.  Some concerns with deep ball accuracy  but has the arm strength to go deep.  Also is a threat in the run game with 4.6 speed and some shiftiness. Should at least be a solid backup with his accuracy and ability to read defenses. 

Jaren Hall - Another older prospect at 25 and also concerns of being a system guy given Zack Wilson was a top pick in that system.  Solid accuracy and arm strength but often throws off his back foot and is inaccurate when pressured leading to bad throws.  Not the best decision maker but exciting when he gets out of the pocket. 

 

 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

I think given how Goff has played this year, he has again done enough to not force us to go QB.  If the right QB drops to us and our staff falls in love, grab him and we can cut or trade Goff.  I have a feeling someone would gladly pony up some picks for him at this point given what he has shown even if its just a 3rd or something similar.   His contract/cap hit is not amongst the top 10 in the league anymore after this year which makes him a lot more desirable to a team like Tampa who may be in need of a replacement if Brady retires.  But I would be content on building the D around him and giving him a full year with Jameo. Also getting healthy on the O line and building more depth would help a ton.  

Draft wise I like Stroud a lot this year.  His accuracy to all parts of the field and quick decision making are very transferable abilities.  He had a bad game against UM but still made a couple amazing throws in that game and honestly all QB prospects have bad games on their resume.  

If not Stroud, grab someone in the mid rounds to improve our backup situation and maybe we hit on a Hurts or Dak type and at worst make it so we aren't hopeless if Goff goes down. 

I do think one of the biggest things to evaluate with these QBs is their leadership ability and drive to be great.  Its hard to find given they all are telling teams what they want to hear but the drive to be great and having a chip on their shoulder seems to push the greats to be great. If not you end up with Zach Wilson's and Jamarcus Russell's.  

[Just Want A Title]

13 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Key guys you missed below:

Hendon Hooker - Mobile QB with a great arm strength and accuracy.  Not the quickest to read plays but can make plays with his legs if needed.  He has been over 65% every year as a starter and at nearly 70% this year with over 9.5 yards per attempt which means he isnt throwing a bunch of screens to get there.  Does have a tendancy to take sacks which is somewhat concerning on his vision and feel in the pocket. Biggest issue is his age, being 25 which is 2 years older than Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields who both have 2 years of NFL experience at 23.  

Tanner McKee - Great size at 6'6" and 230lbs.  Solid arm with really good accuracy but playing with no NFL talent around him.  Has solid mechanics and footwork which lead to that great accuracy and ability to lead WRs allowing YAC. Very similar to Levis IMO with concerns over production but wondering if its an outdated offensive system and talent around him or if its his abilities.  Given his WRs 

Grayson McCall - Solid size at 6'3" 220 and has really great stats at a small school.  Has had a down year for him with a 68.9% completions down from 73% last year and his yards per attempt dropped under 10 from 11.5 last year.  Some concerns with deep ball accuracy  but has the arm strength to go deep.  Also is a threat in the run game with 4.6 speed and some shiftiness. Should at least be a solid backup with his accuracy and ability to read defenses. 

Jaren Hall - Another older prospect at 25 and also concerns of being a system guy given Zack Wilson was a top pick in that system.  Solid accuracy and arm strength but often throws off his back foot and is inaccurate when pressured leading to bad throws.  Not the best decision maker but exciting when he gets out of the pocket. 

 

 

 

I left the players above off the list because they have some significant question marks:

- Herndon Hooker is an older prospect and suffered an ACL tear in in final college game

- It is tough to classify Grayson McCall, who I like as a prospect, as anything but a developmental QB because he played at Coastal Carolina

- Jaren Hall for all of the reasons you pointed out

- Tanner McKee has great size but hasn't shown much mobility.  Is this year's Stanford team bad in spite of his talent or is he part of the problem?  

[Sllim Pickens]

8 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

I left the players above off the list because they have some significant question marks:

- Herndon Hooker is an older prospect and suffered an ACL tear in in final college game

- It is tough to classify Grayson McCall, who I like as a prospect, as anything but a developmental QB because he played at Coastal Carolina

- Jaren Hall for all of the reasons you pointed out

- Tanner McKee has great size but hasn't shown much mobility.  Is this year's Stanford team bad in spite of his talent or is he part of the problem?  

Most of the guys you listed all have huge question marks too, its why they aren't top 5 rated players. Anthony Richardson has more question marks than anyone IMO at QB and has shown nothing as a QB IMO other than tools, which most of these guys have. 

Leaving McCall off because he is at a small school is crazy given Trey Lance, Josh Allen, Malik Willis, and Bailey Zappe have been drafted the last few years and others like Taylor Heinicke and Mike White are having enough success to at least be solid backups.  Talent is talent, and can translate no matter the size of school.  

Injuries suck but Hooker was still a great QB and can be a solid backup or better when he recovers.  He likely wouldn't start year 1 anyways. 

McKee has the tools just as Richardson does and Richardson has far more talent around him.  He has significantly better numbers as well even though they arent great.

 

[Just Want A Title]

Bo Nix had another good game against Oregon St so that adds to his storyline.  Bo Nix and Max Duggan could rise quite a bit as the draft evaluation progresses.

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think given how Goff has played this year, he has again done enough to not force us to go QB.  If the right QB drops to us and our staff falls in love, grab him and we can cut or trade Goff.  I have a feeling someone would gladly pony up some picks for him at this point given what he has shown even if its just a 3rd or something similar.   His contract/cap hit is not amongst the top 10 in the league anymore after this year which makes him a lot more desirable to a team like Tampa who may be in need of a replacement if Brady retires.  But I would be content on building the D around him and giving him a full year with Jameo. Also getting healthy on the O line and building more depth would help a ton.  

Draft wise I like Stroud a lot this year.  His accuracy to all parts of the field and quick decision making are very transferable abilities.  He had a bad game against UM but still made a couple amazing throws in that game and honestly all QB prospects have bad games on their resume.  

If not Stroud, grab someone in the mid rounds to improve our backup situation and maybe we hit on a Hurts or Dak type and at worst make it so we aren't hopeless if Goff goes down. 

I do think one of the biggest things to evaluate with these QBs is their leadership ability and drive to be great.  Its hard to find given they all are telling teams what they want to hear but the drive to be great and having a chip on their shoulder seems to push the greats to be great. If not you end up with Zach Wilson's and Jamarcus Russell's.  

I agree with you on Jared Goff.  He is a solid QB who seems to work well with Ben Johnson.  If he can reach any kind of comfort-level with DJ Chark on deep balls that would be a huge plus for the offense and defense.  

[Karnage84]

I don't like the person but Spencer Rattler could be on the rise if he declares. He's had some big wins to finish out the last couple weeks. 

[Just Want A Title]

2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't like the person but Spencer Rattler could be on the rise if he declares. He's had some big wins to finish out the last couple weeks. 

He has had a bit of a roller-coaster career.  On the plus-side, his early struggles could be due the fact that maybe he was rushed into a starting QB role that he wasn't ready to handle.  There was a lot of pressure at Oklahoma.  

[Sllim Pickens]

2 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

He has had a bit of a roller-coaster career.  On the plus-side, his early struggles could be due the fact that maybe he was rushed into a starting QB role that he wasn't ready to handle.  There was a lot of pressure at Oklahoma.  

His first year as a starter was great. 68% completions, 28/7 TD/INT ratio. His second year he threw some INTs early but was still completing 75% of his passes but his biggest issue was mental and the fact that Caleb Williams was there breathing down his neck.  So when an opportunity arose, they moved on from him.  This year has been more disappointing than last year IMO so won't really let a couple games sway the big picture on him.  He has some tools but I wouldn't risk more than a mid to late round pick on him.  He does have some upside and tools but just hasn't produced since his sophomore year and the mental side of playing QB has to be a strength to make it in the NFL.   

[Louis Friend]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Draft wise I like Stroud a lot this year.  His accuracy to all parts of the field and quick decision making are very transferable abilities.  He had a bad game against UM but still made a couple amazing throws in that game and honestly all QB prospects have bad games on their resume. 

Stroud is still my QB2 to Young QB1. The Michigan game doesn't define his entire collegiate career, nor should it. He didn't even play poorly. They were out coached. I really didn't like the play call for them in the second half.

Strouds biggest strength is his accuracy. His vision, feel for the game, and ability to pinpoint passes is not easily duplicated. He also has the ability to run but doesn't seem to want to. And that's one of the reasons I like Young more.

I've been calling for a mobile QB for years now. I got mocked for wanting Jalen Hurts so badly during the draft process. I think it's something Ben Johnson could bring out in Stroud, which would open up his game so much more. 

[Lions017]

100% you go QB if you have anyone with a high enough grade. 

This is the time. Goff is not the answer. He's fine, but he's expensive and we know what he is. Get someone cheaper with more upside. 

This is the year. We have the draft capital, we have a good offense and line, and we even have Goff there to keep a rookie from being thrown to the wolves. 

The only reason to pass is if you really don't like any of the prospects and/or you just can't trade up to get one. 

Please, don't **** around with drafting a guy on day two or three and crossing your fingers. Those guys have minuscule hit rates. If you want a QB, you take them early. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Lions017

[LionArkie]

33 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

100% you go QB if you have anyone with a high enough grade. 

This is the time. Goff is not the answer. He's fine, but he's expensive and we know what he is. Get someone cheaper with more upside. 

This is the year. We have the draft capital, we have a good offense and line, and we even have Goff there to keep a rookie from being thrown to the wolves. 

The only reason to pass is if you really don't like any of the prospects and/or you just can't trade up to get one. 

Please, don't **** around with drafting a guy on day two or three and crossing your fingers. Those guys have minuscule hit rates. If you want a QB, you take them early. 

Who's your guy if you were to take/get one?

[Karnage84]

35 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

100% you go QB if you have anyone with a high enough grade. 

This is the time. Goff is not the answer. He's fine, but he's expensive and we know what he is. Get someone cheaper with more upside. 

This is the year. We have the draft capital, we have a good offense and line, and we even have Goff there to keep a rookie from being thrown to the wolves. 

The only reason to pass is if you really don't like any of the prospects and/or you just can't trade up to get one. 

Please, don't **** around with drafting a guy on day two or three and crossing your fingers. Those guys have minuscule hit rates. If you want a QB, you take them early. 

If a team like the Panthers offers us up a haul for either Stroud or Young, I think I'd still take it. 

ex. Trey Lance trade

• 2021 1st (#12)
• 2022 1st
• 2022 3rd
• 2023 12st

Both guys have enough question marks that I don't feel 100% comfortable about their NFL futures. 

Carolina #5 = 1700 points

Detroit via LAR #3 = 2200 points (-500 points)

A potential deal could look like

• Carolina receives #3 overall
• Detroit receives #5 overall + #36 + #132

We would wind up picking (as of right now) in the first two rounds:

• #5
• # 13
• #36
• #44
• #61

That could land us players in the realm of (2022 draft prospects) beyond the first round:

- Breece Hall (#36)

- John Metchie/David Ojabo/Jaquan Brisker

- Bryan Cook/James Cook

All quality players with a number of them playing meaningful snaps. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Karnage84

[Lions017]

1 hour ago, LionArkie said:

Who's your guy if you were to take/get one?

I'm by no means a QB Guru or film expert. From what I've read Young/Stroud are both very good prospects. Maybe neither becomes a megastar, but if they can hit that Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins level and just be a bit better than Goff then that's still super valuable, especially since they'll be cheap for quite a while. 

Levis and Richardson are intriguing too, since they're the more toolsy types and we can afford to have them sit for a minute.