2023 Off-season Talk

[jetfuel34]

8 hours ago, NJC33 said:

 

My biggest concerns with Carr, put into perspective in a glaring way.. 

He's a boxscore QB. In a vacuum his numbers look great, but compiling empty stats in a losing effort doesn't mean anything. Kirk Cousins has been criticized for it his entire career, and rightfully so, he can't figure out how to win big games. Some guys can't. People who didn't watch Flacco this season told us he was our best option - absurd, and yet you can understand why seeing 300yds/game might create a misleading perception.

My opinion of Carr has never coincided with the stats he's accumulated, likely because when I've watched the Raiders play (big games), he's fallen flat. Again, similar to how I view Cousins.

I did a bit more digging.. there are 25 active QBs who have faced at least 10 opponents that went on to have a winning record, the only ones with a worse win percentage than Carr (.237) are Darnold (.235), Bridgewater (.222), Cousins (.200), Daniel Jones (.187) and Stafford (.132) - of those 5, you can't really count Darnold/Jones (Small sample size, mostly includes their first/second season which is to be expected) and Teddy is a career backup. For comparison, Rodgers and Jimmy G both rank in the top-5.

Cold weather thing is a known issue, but hadn't actually seen his record. 

I'm so tired of the "Carr can't play in the cold." The guy has played little to few games in the cold. You have a small sample size. Then you add the fact he was on some bad Raider teams who for awhile had zero run game. I can flip stats too. Look at the fields he was playing in ie Oakland. The guy was playing on a baseball field for a lot of his games. I bet he would have done a lot better on a regular field. Then like I said before you have heated benches, heat cannons, and other ways. I live in Maine and if I'm playing football here and have all that heat I'm not feeling that cold for the first 10-15 minutes. That is about how long a drive on the field last. 

[Bobby816]

7 hours ago, NJC33 said:

 

My biggest concerns with Carr, put into perspective in a glaring way.. 

He's a boxscore QB. In a vacuum his numbers look great, but compiling empty stats in a losing effort doesn't mean anything. Kirk Cousins has been criticized for it his entire career, and rightfully so, he can't figure out how to win big games. Some guys can't. People who didn't watch Flacco this season told us he was our best option - absurd, and yet you can understand why seeing 300yds/game might create a misleading perception.

My opinion of Carr has never coincided with the stats he's accumulated, likely because when I've watched the Raiders play (big games), he's fallen flat. Again, similar to how I view Cousins.

I did a bit more digging.. there are 25 active QBs who have faced at least 10 opponents that went on to have a winning record, the only ones with a worse win percentage than Carr (.237) are Darnold (.235), Bridgewater (.222), Cousins (.200), Daniel Jones (.187) and Stafford (.132) - of those 5, you can't really count Darnold/Jones (Small sample size, mostly includes their first/second season which is to be expected) and Teddy is a career backup. For comparison, Rodgers and Jimmy G both rank in the top-5.

Cold weather thing is a known issue, but hadn't actually seen his record. 

I can see the concerns some might have. But let's remember that he's hitting FA for a reason. And QBs of this level don't hit FA often. So while he's not elite. He's very good. So if the comparison for him is the elite guys. Than yes I'll agree he's not there. But for me he's 100% right in that area of around 10-15th best QB in this league.

And the stats argument and clutch argument I don't exactly agree with. If we're playing the stats game... how about that Carr has had more game winning drives than any other QB in the NFL since he's entered the league? Is that not clutch? Are those garbage stats? If we're going to play the stats game, let's throw the positive in there as well. Has only missed 3 starts in 9 seasons. Has had 217 TDs to 99 INTs (we're used to nearly every QB we have not even close to those numbers). 65% completion percentage. 92 QBR.

Let's talk about a few other things with him as well. Who has he had around him throughout his career? He didn't get a great WR until this last season and still was producing good seasons. Jacobs wasn't good until this last season. Poor OL most years. The defense he's had with him has been a bottom feeder his whole career. He's had a lot against him. So if we're going to compare him to the likes of Jimmy G... let's not compare them likes it apples to apples. Jimmy has had great players around him, a great OL, RBs and a great D. It's hypothetical I know. But if you put Carr on SF, they're better than the Jimmy version for me. And you put Jimmy on LV and they're even worse.

[Bobby816]

11 minutes ago, jetfuel34 said:

I'm so tired of the "Carr can't play in the cold." The guy has played little to few games in the cold. You have a small sample size. Then you add the fact he was on some bad Raider teams who for awhile had zero run game. I can flip stats too. Look at the fields he was playing in ie Oakland. The guy was playing on a baseball field for a lot of his games. I bet he would have done a lot better on a regular field. Then like I said before you have heated benches, heat cannons, and other ways. I live in Maine and if I'm playing football here and have all that heat I'm not feeling that cold for the first 10-15 minutes. That is about how long a drive on the field last. 

Thank you. Let's talk about preparation. When you live and practice in either LA or LV you cant prepare for the cold. He moves and plays in a cold weather city and is practicing and living in cold weather. He becomes accustomed to it. Not at all worried about him i the cold weather. Totally overblown.

[Bobby816]

I'll try and do a rather quick write up of the pros and cons for each guy and tell you why I have them ranked the way I do.

The way I have them listed is the order I want us to go. 

 

Aaron Rodgers

Pros: And elite QB, knows how to win big games, makes the guys around him better, knows the system and our OC very well, Rarely turns the ball over, offers us the chance to win right now creating a winning environment for these young guys.

Cons: He will cost a good amount of draft capital, IMO he's likely only playing 2 years, so we'd have to pay him for 2 years probably with him not even on the roster.

 

Derek Carr

Pros: Is a very good QB (I have him around the 10-15 range), is a warrior and rarely misses time (has only missed 3 games in 9 seasons), Has more game winning drives than any QB in the last 9 seasons, hasn't ever played with a great defense where he doesn't have to do as much, consistently will give us that 25 TD type seasons or better, still only 31 and in his prime. He will play his whole contract with us. Won't cost us draft capital allowing us to continue the youth movement. Fits the system.

Cons: Likely going to look like he's getting top QB money (this even though I have in cons, for me is a positive, bc once guys like Burrow, Hurts, Jackson and such get paid, he'll be getting paid about where he sits talent wise), He's good, but not elite. Hasn't shown he can play in cold (once again I have this in cons, but don't think this is an issue, when you live and practice in the cold and are adjusted to it, is 100% different than living in LA or LV and practicing there and then going to the cold to play the game). How will he do with the media? He's shown that he 100% will take the blame when things aren't going good, but also doesn't like criticism well.

 

Jimmy G

Pros: Likely wont cost as much as Carr, When he plays has shown to win, Should be a fit for our system, Familiar with some of the staff, Is consistent in his stats. Has playoff experience. 31, so he still has football years ahead of him. 

Cons: Has an injury history, Has never done enough to make a staff think they're good at QB, has only started on average 8 games a season since his 3rd year in the league, He's coming off an injury. Has had relatively great players around him his whole career, both on offense and defense. Where he hasn't had to do a ton to win games.

 

Lamar Jackson

Pros: He's an elite QB, Can hurt teams in so many ways, Has shown he can win. He's young and should have several good seasons ahead of him if he can stay healthy.

Cons: He's going to cost a ton to trade for. Probably at bare minimum 3 1st rounders +, on top of that you likely have to make him a top 3 highest paid player in the NFL, His style is suited for long term success and he wants a fully guaranteed deal, his skill as a passer doesn't match him being good long term (when his legs go, he wont be the same), he's coming off injury, his work ethic has been in question at times. Not sure he fits our system.

 

Ryan Tannehill

Pros: Wont cost a ton (assuming TEN cuts him or trades him away for nothing), has a winning history, is consistent, has ties to our passing game coordinator and OL coach, fits the system.

Cons: He's older so he's a band-aid (will be 35 when the season starts), very average to above average. Hasn't really ever shown he alone can win games, has relied on RBs and D most his career.

 

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Derek Carr

3. Jimmy G

4. Lamar Jackson

5. Ryan Tannehill

 

I don't want us to have any other options... that's why I stopped there. 

[GangGreen420]

9 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Lamar Jackson

Pros: He's an elite QB,

Might be the most overrated QB in the league. He had an elite season 3 years ago, “elite” is the best of the best. I don’t think Lamar or Rodgers are elite today.

[NJC33]

19 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I can see the concerns some might have. But let's remember that he's hitting FA for a reason. And QBs of this level don't hit FA often. So while he's not elite. He's very good. So if the comparison for him is the elite guys. Than yes I'll agree he's not there. But for me he's 100% right in that area of around 10-15th best QB in this league.

And the stats argument and clutch argument I don't exactly agree with. If we're playing the stats game... how about that Carr has had more game winning drives than any other QB in the NFL since he's entered the league? Is that not clutch? Are those garbage stats? If we're going to play the stats game, let's throw the positive in there as well. Has only missed 3 starts in 9 seasons. Has had 217 TDs to 99 INTs (we're used to nearly every QB we have not even close to those numbers). 65% completion percentage. 92 QBR.

Let's talk about a few other things with him as well. Who has he had around him throughout his career? He didn't get a great WR until this last season and still was producing good seasons. Jacobs wasn't good until this last season. Poor OL most years. The defense he's had with him has been a bottom feeder his whole career. He's had a lot against him. So if we're going to compare him to the likes of Jimmy G... let's not compare them likes it apples to apples. Jimmy has had great players around him, a great OL, RBs and a great D. It's hypothetical I know. But if you put Carr on SF, they're better than the Jimmy version for me. And you put Jimmy on LV and they're even worse.

Carr obviously has great numbers, the point was to try and add some context - i.e not all 300yd games are equal. Boxscores tell a different story when you're playing from behind (see Flacco). I can't imagine any of us have watched Carr religiously throughout his career, so naturally opinions are formed quantitatively (looking at his stats), as opposed to to qualitatively (quality of those stats). Again, it's a lot easier to fill a boxscore against poor competition or in a losing effort, which Carr undeniably has done throughout his career.

None of which is to say he's "bad".. but it's notable context not found on the surface.

Credit to him for the game winning drives, but nonetheless, he falls short against good competition. Some really talented QBs never figure out how to win those games and through 9 seasons Carr is one of them. And, we need to stop acting like the Raiders have been equivalent to Stafford's Lions. Carr has played on some really good teams, with prime Amari/Mack, elite OL .. etc. He's also played with very little around him. His defenses have struggled, in part, because of his high volume passing - again, not a criticism, same is true for most QBs like Carr, but it's not a coincidence that great defenses are often paired with run-first offenses and no one mentions that. Regardless, good team / bad team.. He hasn't won with either. 

[xrade]

9 hours ago, NJC33 said:

 

My biggest concerns with Carr, put into perspective in a glaring way.. 

He's a boxscore QB. In a vacuum his numbers look great, but compiling empty stats in a losing effort doesn't mean anything. Kirk Cousins has been criticized for it his entire career, and rightfully so, he can't figure out how to win big games. Some guys can't. People who didn't watch Flacco this season told us he was our best option - absurd, and yet you can understand why seeing 300yds/game might create a misleading perception.

My opinion of Carr has never coincided with the stats he's accumulated, likely because when I've watched the Raiders play (big games), he's fallen flat. Again, similar to how I view Cousins.

I did a bit more digging.. there are 25 active QBs who have faced at least 10 opponents that went on to have a winning record, the only ones with a worse win percentage than Carr (.237) are Darnold (.235), Bridgewater (.222), Cousins (.200), Daniel Jones (.187) and Stafford (.132) - of those 5, you can't really count Darnold/Jones (Small sample size, mostly includes their first/second season which is to be expected) and Teddy is a career backup. For comparison, Rodgers and Jimmy G both rank in the top-5.

Cold weather thing is a known issue, but hadn't actually seen his record. 

Back to the QB being judged on wins and losses I see.  Did Carr also play D and ST?  Were Carr stats against those teams any better or worse than against other teams?  How did CARR play not the whole team?

[xrade]

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

I can see the concerns some might have. But let's remember that he's hitting FA for a reason

Yeah,  McDaniels and his Belichechian ego.  You could say the same for why Rodgers is allowed to seek a trade.

[xrade]

38 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I'll try and do a rather quick write up of the pros and cons for each guy and tell you why I have them ranked the way I do.

I'm not quoting the whole write up, but nicely done.  Now my retort:

Rodgers may or may not still be elite.  Was his season last year his new norm or just an outlier?  If he makes his WR's better then why did he didn't he play better last year?  You dismiss his $ after he is done playing rather casually.  That will be a HUGE problem that too many are ignoring.

Lamar is an elite RUNNING QB.  Lets view his passing for what it really is - average.  Can he be a better passer with better weapons like we have?  Are the Jets willing to pay the cost in draft capital and $ to find out?  As a pessimistic fan (and I have every damn right to be so), Lamar will flame out on this team.  Defenses are getting wise to him and his style of play will NOT last long.  So, he will be an average QB making top $ and hurting our building efforts for a few years.  Yup, lets do it and continue the suckitude.

My rankings:  1.  Carr  2. Jimmy G  3. Tanny  4.  Rodgers  5.  **** it.  Just surrender.

[KingOfNewYork]

Y’all make excuses when y’all like a player or a coach but when y’all don’t like a player or a coach they just suck. Hella annoying honestly. Even the guys I support heavily need to be better and I say that but damn man Derek Carr ain’t Tom Brady, his cold weather numbers are not good and he’s led the Raiders to nothing for 9 years. 

And don’t tell me it’s about winning because it’s not around here. 

[NJC33]

48 minutes ago, xrade said:

Back to the QB being judged on wins and losses I see.  Did Carr also play D and ST?  Were Carr stats against those teams any better or worse than against other teams?  How did CARR play not the whole team?

Lol I’m not judging Carr on wins and losses. I’m trying to contextualize stats knowing I didn’t watch the majority of those games. Maybe Carr is the victim of historically bad luck, or maybe he’s had something to do with it.

Wins and losses may not tell the whole story, or close to it, but unequivocally hold relevance for QBs. There’s an unquantifiable reason for Brady winning 7 times or Cousins persistently losing when it matters — it’s not just talent and/or circumstance of those around them. Call it mentality or the will to win. In 9 consecutive seasons with Carr as the starter, the Raiders haven’t won a playoff game. He’s 14-45 against winning teams. I’m not saying that’s solely a reflection of Carr, but the sample size is more than enough to make me think he’s been part of the problem.

[Bobby816]

56 minutes ago, xrade said:

I'm not quoting the whole write up, but nicely done.  Now my retort:

Rodgers may or may not still be elite.  Was his season last year his new norm or just an outlier?  If he makes his WR's better then why did he didn't he play better last year?  You dismiss his $ after he is done playing rather casually.  That will be a HUGE problem that too many are ignoring.

Lamar is an elite RUNNING QB.  Lets view his passing for what it really is - average.  Can he be a better passer with better weapons like we have?  Are the Jets willing to pay the cost in draft capital and $ to find out?  As a pessimistic fan (and I have every damn right to be so), Lamar will flame out on this team.  Defenses are getting wise to him and his style of play will NOT last long.  So, he will be an average QB making top $ and hurting our building efforts for a few years.  Yup, lets do it and continue the suckitude.

My rankings:  1.  Carr  2. Jimmy G  3. Tanny  4.  Rodgers  5.  **** it.  Just surrender.

Yes I think Rodgers is elite. And quite frankly I don't get the stance that he isn't.

I'll listen to the debate all day of him not being worth the value in a trade bc of his age and not wanting to pay him for 4 years not knowing how long he will actually play.

But to say he's not elite is quite baffling to me.

Last year he played under a new OC (yes I know LaFleur was still there) and several new WRs all while losing an elite WR. I think it just took him a bit to adjust to that (he played better later in the year than he did in the beginning). Factor in that he was playing most the season with a BROKEN FINGER... that's huge as to why his "stats" weren't elite.

Some are acting like his great play was like 5 years ago.

 

These stats are all under Hackett FYI....

 

2021: 13-3, 4115yds, 37TDs, 4INTs, 69%, 112QBR ELITE NUMBERS 

2020: 13-3, 4300yds, 48TDs, 5INTs, 71%, 121QBR ELITE NUMBERS

Both MVP seasons and literally from a year and 2 years ago. This isn't a guy that back in 2017 was good and we hope he still has it. It's a guy that is still at an elite level and instantly makes us a SB contender.

[Bobby816]

16 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

Lol I’m not judging Carr on wins and losses. I’m trying to contextualize stats knowing I didn’t watch the majority of those games. Maybe Carr is the victim of historically bad luck, or maybe he’s had something to do with it.

Wins and losses may not tell the whole story, or close to it, but unequivocally hold relevance for QBs. There’s an unquantifiable reason for Brady winning 7 times or Cousins persistently losing when it matters — it’s not just talent and/or circumstance of those around them. Call it mentality or the will to win. In 9 consecutive seasons with Carr as the starter, the Raiders haven’t won a playoff game. He’s 14-45 against winning teams. I’m not saying that’s solely a reflection of Carr, but the sample size is more than enough to make me think he’s been part of the problem.

Not saying what you're saying at all is wrong but it's relatively eliminating 52 other players, coaches and other things that HUGELY make a difference.

 

He's pretty much never had a good defense in OAK or LV. Not many teams unless you have an absolutely elite QB can consistently win with a bottom feeder defense. So if we're taking wins and losses into context. Everything, not just some things need to be taken into play. Jacobs had a great season this year. Who else has he had as elite RBs behind him his other 8 years? What elite WRs did he have around him besides Adams this year. Carr for me is a victim of a vert good (not elite) QB that's just played on bad teams. Not at all saying he needs elite players around him to be good. Because we've actually seen him be good for his whole career with rleatively little to help him.

 

The idea is that you bring him as a good QB over to us with an elite defense, a good run game and weapons at WR and TE. And you'd have to imagine that equals wins. 

I've said this forever regarding our own team. We just started investing in the offense these last few years. A guy like Geno never stood a chance of being great with us bc what we had around him. Darnold was never given guys around him or a defense. What the situation is around the QB 100% dictates everything. A QB alone shouldn't just make a team a winning franchise. You put Mahomes on HOU and think they're going 14-3 and winning a SB? No chance. He alone maybe brings an extra 2-4 wins that's it. Football is the ultimate team game. And some act like the other 52 guys shouldn't dictate how good a QBs stats and wins and losses record should be.

[xrade]

13 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

Lol I’m not judging Carr on wins and losses. I’m trying to contextualize stats knowing I didn’t watch the majority of those games. Maybe Carr is the victim of historically bad luck, or maybe he’s had something to do with it.

Wins and losses may not tell the whole story, or close to it, but unequivocally hold relevance for QBs. There’s an unquantifiable reason for Brady winning 7 times or Cousins persistently losing when it matters — it’s not just talent and/or circumstance of those around them. Call it mentality or the will to win. In 9 consecutive seasons with Carr as the starter, the Raiders haven’t won a playoff game. He’s 14-45 against winning teams. I’m not saying that’s solely a reflection of Carr, but the sample size is more than enough to make me think he’s been part of the problem.

A part of the problem?  Perhaps.  By that logic anytime a team loses the QB is part of the problem.  However, that is not necessarily so.  We lost a game this year on a punt return TD as time expired.  We lost another by blown coverage against a freakin' TE.  The point is that W's and L's are a team effort.  Period.  Some games the QB loses it and some games some other unit is to blame. 

When fans spout W's and L's for a unit or a player or a coach it is the most lazy way of defining the subject in question.  Say it enough and people start to believe it.  Carr is not the main reason they have not won a playoff game. and no, the are not unequivocally relevant for a QB. Only for a team.

Here is Carr's stats for the 2021 playoff game against the Bengals.  Waller, Renfro and Zay Jones are his top receivers.

Player	Tm	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Lng	Rate	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	Lng	Fmb	FL
Derek Carr	LVR	29	54	310	1	1	3	28	26	69.2	1	20	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

This was his only playoff game.  Cook was QB in the 2016 playoff game.  Not sure why the team not winning in Carr's only playoff game against the eventual SB contenders has even become a thing.

 

 

 

[Rockice_8]

1 hour ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Y’all make excuses when y’all like a player or a coach but when y’all don’t like a player or a coach they just suck. Hella annoying honestly. Even the guys I support heavily need to be better and I say that but damn man Derek Carr ain’t Tom Brady, his cold weather numbers are not good and he’s led the Raiders to nothing for 9 years. 

And don’t tell me it’s about winning because it’s not around here. 

Wins are not a QB stat.  Put Brady on OAK and he isn't the GOAT and probably isn't winning anything either.  Carr dealt with bottom 5 defenses his entire career.  No QB is overcoming that to "win" as you say.  Brady was winning Superbowls scoring under 20 ppg.  He played with top 10 defenses and that was a huge reason for his success.  Brady wins 17-14 and get all the praise because they won.

Put Carr in a better situation and there is no reason to see him have more success in the winning department.  Carr is a top 12-16ish QB that's plenty good to win.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Rockice_8