2023 Off-season Talk

[GangGreen420]

9 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Of course nothing is guaranteed.

So nothing is absolutes. But this whole angle of some that us adding Rodgers doesn't equal playoffs and possible SB run. Is just a hater for reasons they're not saying.

If someone just saw us almost make the playoffs with the worst QB play in the league and don't think that we are at minimum a playoff team with Carr. They're being a hater for reasons they're not saying.

Neither are guaranteed but you take our healthy roster that has younger guys that should only be better getting a QB. To think that doesn't equal a better team is crazy.

It just means people need to keep their expectations in check and the QB isn’t the be all end all.

[Bobby816]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'd be lying if I said I didn't understand where Jets' fans are coming from.  Generally speaking, trading a potential long-term asset for a short-term fix generally isn't a healthy decision for any franchise, but it's more fluid than just Rodgers vs. 13th pick.  Even if you go down the QB spectrum, how much is your franchise impacted.

Lamar Jackson - We're probably talking about a Deshaun Watson-like package (3 FRPs+) plus handing out a mega contract (again think Deshaun Watson).  From a purely on-the-field perspective, Lamar Jackson is the best QB available.  He does things the only QB that probably can claim to have done in the last 20 years is Michael Vick.  But the reality is that he's likely going to have a yearly cap hit of at least $40M/year and he's averaged 12 GP over the last 2 seasons because of various injuries.  If you're giving up 3 FRPs+ for Lamar Jackson, you're expecting him to stay relatively healthy and not miss almost a quarter of the season.  Lamar is easily the highest upside QB available, but he also provides the biggest amount of risk involved given the draft capital needed to acquire him and the subsequent mega-deal you're going to have to sign him to.

Derek Carr - Derek Carr is probably the highest upside of all of the FA QBs, but his track record has been inconsistent at best.  You're still probably paying him really good QB money ($35M+/year), but you're not having to give up draft capital to do so.  In terms of minimizing your risk, he's probably the guy who is most likely to cost the least, but going to need the most out of his supporting cast to succeed.  But again, that's assuming that Carr wants to sign with the Jets, but let's assume that he does.  What has Derek Carr done that makes you believe that he's going to succeed when he wasn't able to do it with the Raiders?

Jimmy Garoppolo - This probably the highest floor of the QBs, but also the lowest ceiling of QBs rumored to be available.  He's probably going to be the cheapest to sign (~$25M/year) and he's not probably going to get a lot in terms of GTD money and he doesn't cost draft capital.  But he's only played in 12+ games twice in his 6 seasons with San Francisco, and the 49ers were a Super Bowl-caliber franchise.  And that team actively traded 2 future FRPs to move up to get a QB to replace him.  To me, that speaks volumes about Jimmy G.  What makes you think that the Jets can do something that the 49ers weren't able to do?

Aaron Rodgers - Might be the Packer fan in me here, but Rodgers is the best value in terms of upside and investment.  If the 2+ FRPs are true, I would agree that's too hefty of a price to pay for someone who might retire next offseason unless that second FRP was conditional.  But if it's a FRP plus some change, that's hard to beat.  We all like to assume that the picks our teams make won't bust, but the reality is the success rate of FRPs is around 50%.

And part of the issue I'm seeing with these discussions here and in the Raiders' forum is the concept that future picks hold the same value as present picks when the reality is that isn't the case.  Any team acquiring Rodgers isn't doing it with the idea that they're going to be bad, they're doing it because they think they're going to be good.  Do you think the Broncos would have traded their pick this year for Russell Wilson if they knew they'd be picking top 5?  No.  But the concept is that you either pay more in the future or pay less in the present.  And you're not going to trade your "extra" picks to get the guy that makes you a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  It's easy to forget that the Jets only finished 2 games out of a playoff spot despite 6 straight games to end the season and dealing with the QB carousel.  The Jets were on pace to win 11 games this year.  The concept that the Jets are a fringe playoff team is comical.

My issue with Jackson isn't so much the draft capital to get him. It's more the money and years committed to him and his style of play. For me Jackson isn't good enough of a passer to still win if he cant run like he is now. And obviously the older he gets and more injuries he gets the slower and less agile he gets. And he doesn't have the arm to make up for that. I think he has success passing bc teams have to respect him running. Once that isn't a threat. I think he becomes rather average. And now you're paying top QB money for an average guy. Of course he can never get injured again. But with his style and size, would anyone wager their savings on that? I doubt it. As a player I love Jackson and would be a happy to get him even of the price was 3 1st and having to pay him. But it's an investment that could go south fast. It's not exactly the same as saying commiting money to a guy like Herbert is a mistake. Because Herberts style is built to last. Jacksons isn't.

 

With Carr I like to take the "x" factors that we have that he never had. We have an elite defense. Meaning that's A LOT less pressure on the QB to score 30 points a game to win. I'll package Jimmy G in with this. Jimmy G for me isn't as talented as Carr. But his  w/l record looks better bc of the team he had around him. A lot of QBs can look above average when they have a great OL, Kittle, Deebo and an elite defense around them. I think you put Carr on this team and we're a playoff team every year battling with the Bills in the division. I think you put Jimmy on this team and we're close to the same. But with his injury history and lack of being proven with A LOT around him... isn't as safe of a bet. Both not costing any draft capital is a huge upside as well and both only 31 with likely several good years ahead of them.

 

Rodgers for me isnt just a make the playoffs target. He's a win the SB target. Thats what the difference for me is.

 

I think recent history has some of us overvaluing our draft capital as well. Keep in mind we've been a franchise now for the last 3 years with loads of picks early in the draft. So I think some are thinking what we're trading away is more than it actually is. As you pointed out the success rate isn't great in the draft. As Jets fans recently we just saw all 4 of our top picks look great as rookies. So it's not easy to look past that. But all you have to go to is 3 drafts ago (same GM) and say would any of us not agree to trade Becton and Mims for Rodgers? That's the equivalent pretty much of us trading a 1st and 2nd this year for Rodgers.

[Bobby816]

8 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said:

It just means people need to keep their expectations in check and the QB isn’t the be all end all.

For us it is though bc of how our roster is built.

Our defense was just elite with the worst QB play in the league. So let's say we lose 2 starters on defense. The offense just being worth a damn and not having the D on the field all game negates that.

We have a great young group of playmakers. You trying to tell me GW couldn't jump to a for sure top 10 WR when he just won OROY with the worst QB play in the league. Moore cant double his stats with the way Carr has used Renfrow and Rodgers has Cobb? That Hall cant be as good as Jones bc he has bigger lanes to run in and agility to catch the ball bc there's a QB that teams have to respect back there?

[doumeyer]

We can talk all day long and nothing is going to change. we are at the mercy of all the NFL teams that need a QB. We have absolutely no leverage at all. The leverage we have is our first-round   pick & they will ask for more. I though our best chance to get Arron Rodgers at 39 years old but he seems to be off the wall now. If Tannehill end's up with the Jets Joe Namath told him he can have the number 12 for his jersey.

[Greene N White]

I would much rather give up 2 first round picks for Lamar than I would for Rodgers. 3 is a bit steep but I think it's worth considering especially because we basically have 4 first rounders from last year.  I really do think Lamar being an injury concern is blown out of proportion. He very rarely gets hit. The one last year was a non contact injury I don't remember if the one this year is or not but he doesn't take a lot of damage.

If we want to become a ground and pound team who plays defense and we have Lamar and Breece in the backfield pounding the ball? The possibilities are endless.

But one Major problem is that I'm not sure if Hackett is creative enough to build an offense around Lamar. 

[GangGreen420]

12 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

For us it is though bc of how our roster is built.

Our defense was just elite with the worst QB play in the league. So let's say we lose 2 starters on defense. The offense just being worth a damn and not having the D on the field all game negates that.

We have a great young group of playmakers. You trying to tell me GW couldn't jump to a for sure top 10 WR when he just won OROY with the worst QB play in the league. Moore cant double his stats with the way Carr has used Renfrow and Rodgers has Cobb? That Hall cant be as good as Jones bc he has bigger lanes to run in and agility to catch the ball bc there's a QB that teams have to respect back there?

Lmao what? I’m not saying any of that.

[Bobby816]

1 minute ago, GangGreen420 said:

Lmao what? I’m not saying any of that.

You're statement was that QB isn't end all be all. But it is actually.

 

Who made the playoffs in the AFC this year? Either QBs that are already elite or on the path to that.

Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, TLaw, Tua.

 

[GangGreen420]

3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

You're statement was that QB isn't end all be all. But it is actually.

 

Who made the playoffs in the AFC this year? Either QBs that are already elite or on the path to that.

Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, TLaw, Tua.

 

K. Where’s Derek Carr at?

[Greene N White]

3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

You're statement was that QB isn't end all be all. But it is actually.

 

Who made the playoffs in the AFC this year? Either QBs that are already elite or on the path to that.

Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, TLaw, Tua.

 

You're 100% right but let's not jump the gun on Tua. 

[Bobby816]

25 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said:

K. Where’s Derek Carr at?

When have you seen me say Carr is elite? I’ve said he’s good.

But you saw how hard it was for us to make the playoffs with an elite defense but awful QB play. It’s just as hard to make the playoffs with a good offense but one of the wriest defenses.

 

It’s quite baffling to see how some are trying to take player x and plug him into x situation and think you still get x player. Thought Stafford erased this for good a year ago. 

[Dr.O]

30 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said:

K. Where’s Derek Carr at?

HE BELONGS TO THE STREETS

[KingOfNewYork]

GG420 really had an elite comeback there. I’m actually jealous I didn’t think of that. 

 

[Rockice_8]

Would love to hear everyone crapping on Rodgers and Carr to explain their plans.  All I hear is a lot of Rodgers will retire so don't want to give up assets for a rental or Carr isn't good enough to move the needle.

What are we doing then? 

[GangGreen420]

27 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

GG420 really had an elite comeback there. I’m actually jealous I didn’t think of that. 

 

I see what you did there

[GangGreen420]

30 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said:

Would love to hear everyone crapping on Rodgers and Carr to explain their plans.  All I hear is a lot of Rodgers will retire so don't want to give up assets for a rental or Carr isn't good enough to move the needle.

What are we doing then? 

The plan should be to sign a capable guy for 1-2 years whether that’s Rodgers at a decent price or Tannehill/someone else and draft a QB again. That’s what I would do, but I don’t run the team.