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2023 Off-season Talk


Bobby816

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Just now, GangGreen420 said:

Carr at 3 is surprising to me

Carr usually gets rid of football quicker because he doesn't like to get hit.  Still he does good job.

Now I hope someone will post about 3rd down conversion rating.   I find one site but it is for team only.  pffttt

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15 minutes ago, JetsandI said:

Carr usually gets rid of football quicker because he doesn't like to get hit.  Still he does good job.

Now I hope someone will post about 3rd down conversion rating.   I find one site but it is for team only.  pffttt

I did see a stat on Carr somewhere that he has the most game winning drives of any QB since he was drafted (may need to fact check that)

I could live with a Carr deal that has a potential out after 2 seasons. I don’t think a trade will happen and he will want to test FA. I still think he ends up on the Titans. The only move I’m completely against at this point is Lamar Jackson.

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8 minutes ago, JetsandI said:

Carr usually gets rid of football quicker because he doesn't like to get hit.  Still he does good job.

Now I hope someone will post about 3rd down conversion rating.   I find one site but it is for team only.  pffttt

Carr completed 58% of his 3rd down passes, 7 touchdowns, 4 picks, took 10 sacks. 

Wilson complete 50% of his 3rd down passes, 4 touchdowns, 4 picks, took 10 sacks. 

Other stats that stand out

Under 2.5 seconds

Carr 61.6%, 11 touchdowns, 7 picks, 80.9 passer rating

Wilson 64.8%, 5 touchdowns, 3 picks, 88.6 passer rating

Trailing

Carr under 2 minutes 41% completions, underr 4 minutes 38% completions

Wilson under 2 minutes 63% completions, under 4 minutes 64% completions

First down

Carr 61%

Wilson 60%

Completed Air Yards

Carr 6.4

Wilson 6.3

Intended Air Yards

Carr 9.3

Wilson 9.2

Air Yards Differential

Carr -2.9

Wilson -2.9

INT%

Carr 2.7%

Wilson 2.8%

Carr beats him out slightly in most areas but the additional passing metrics above show there isn't much disparity. Where Carr helps himself likely is knowing when to hit the checkdown (does wonders for a completion percentage). The biggest difference is Carr simply played more but the numbers are the numbers. Obviously, we'll have a better assessment after watching some film. 

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59 minutes ago, JetsandI said:

Well, we have Saleh and new OC whoever he will be.   How the hell do we know that Carr will work out well with Saleh and new OC?  Oh look at statistic, we are good. Don't worry, blah blah blah.

We don't watch Carr playing game every week and there are a few angry Raider fans who whined so much about his frequency of 3 down and out.  Our Wilson has same problem.

Raider fans angry… no way 😉 

Watch that fan base. Grass isn’t always greener on the other side. They could get in a QB rut like us after they move on from him.

He’s a perfect case of that they don’t know what they had until he’s gone. Now they can very well go out and get another good vet like a Brady, Jimmy G, etc. and be ok. But if they think they go draft a guy and that guy will show that Carr was garbage. Good luck with that unless you’re getting Young or Stroud. Which I doubt. You take anyone of Carrs seasons and they’re literally better than anything we’ve had for years upon years.

Of course who we get as an OC makes a difference on who we target at QB. But yes I firmly believe Carr fits more systems than most the guys for sure available. And if what he did statistically given his situation is his floor. I’ll take that as a high all day. Give him a great D and more than 1 good WR and he should only win and be better.

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42 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said:

I did see a stat on Carr somewhere that he has the most game winning drives of any QB since he was drafted (may need to fact check that)

I could live with a Carr deal that has a potential out after 2 seasons. I don’t think a trade will happen and he will want to test FA. I still think he ends up on the Titans. The only move I’m completely against at this point is Lamar Jackson.

Yes he has I think 33 game winning drives since he entered the league which leads the NFL in that time. He also has only missed 3 games since in the league. So he’s clutch and is available.

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7 hours ago, KimuraGod said:

In regards to JD and Saleh going all out for a qb this year. I assume most of us on here see a ‘playoff or bust’ type of year???

With that being said if we did go down the Carr road….and we did get in the playoffs what would the mandate be for the following year? 

If we sign a guy like Derek Carr he gives us the chance to contend for a playoff spot no question. And a healthy Derek Carr playing 18 games this year would have been the difference this year between making/missing out on the playoffs.
 

But in 2024 after a year in the playoffs could Derek Carr lead us to a SB?! I have huge reservations. I could argue we would still be battling for a playoffs spot and if we did miss out in 2024 would that lead to the sacking of JD and Saleh?! 
 

I hate band aid options for this reason alone….it raises more questions than answers and puts us in no man’s land. I would hope we be brave and make a decision that can lead to a SB than a move that will get us the extra win or two needed to get in the playoffs and flame out. 
 

 

I'm looking at this as an opportunity for us to finally get a top-15 QB to pair with good talent. I don't care about going cheap by tossing out another McCown/Fitzpatrick type of QB anymore. If we miss out on the big names, sure. A QB like Mahomes isn't hitting the market. I want to aim for the best we can get. Get someone we can elevate the offense with for 3years+ in the right scheme. 

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

Carr completed 58% of his 3rd down passes, 7 touchdowns, 4 picks, took 10 sacks. 

Wilson complete 50% of his 3rd down passes, 4 touchdowns, 4 picks, took 10 sacks. 

Other stats that stand out

Under 2.5 seconds

Carr 61.6%, 11 touchdowns, 7 picks, 80.9 passer rating

Wilson 64.8%, 5 touchdowns, 3 picks, 88.6 passer rating

Trailing

Carr under 2 minutes 41% completions, underr 4 minutes 38% completions

Wilson under 2 minutes 63% completions, under 4 minutes 64% completions

First down

Carr 61%

Wilson 60%

Completed Air Yards

Carr 6.4

Wilson 6.3

Intended Air Yards

Carr 9.3

Wilson 9.2

Air Yards Differential

Carr -2.9

Wilson -2.9

INT%

Carr 2.7%

Wilson 2.8%

Carr beats him out slightly in most areas but the additional passing metrics above show there isn't much disparity. Where Carr helps himself likely is knowing when to hit the checkdown (does wonders for a completion percentage). The biggest difference is Carr simply played more but the numbers are the numbers. Obviously, we'll have a better assessment after watching some film. 

Exactly… Carr play smarter than Wilson. And you could argue Wikson regressed in this sense. Started out his rookie year throwing pick after pick. Got hurt and was far from good. But wasn’t turning the ball over like he was. Came back from injury this season and controlled his turnovers while still not looking good at all. And then starts throwing picks his last few games again.

 

Carr has consistency. 

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2 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Exactly… Carr play smarter than Wilson. And you could argue Wikson regressed in this sense. Started out his rookie year throwing pick after pick. Got hurt and was far from good. But wasn’t turning the ball over like he was. Came back from injury this season and controlled his turnovers while still not looking good at all. And then starts throwing picks his last few games again.

 

Carr has consistency. 

I think part of that had to do with his confidence though. It's one thing to sit due to injury vs being benched and then fans groaning at every instance. But that's obviously something we'll never know because only Wilson knows how it impacted him. 

 

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27 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said:

I think part of that had to do with his confidence though. It's one thing to sit due to injury vs being benched and then fans groaning at every instance. But that's obviously something we'll never know because only Wilson knows how it impacted him. 

 

100% I think confidence plays a part. But where is he getting this magical confidence from. Not the fan base. Not the media. Heck not even his teammates.

 

And quite frankly he deserved a lot of what turned on him when he didn’t man up after playing one of the worst games from a QB ever. I mean ever. 

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