Total Control Mock Draft 2023 - Discussion

[ny92mike]

@RTTRUTH

Look at column AL it will show you the subsequent base salary low and high amounts.  I use that when making contracts.

[Trojan]

7 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

I feel like Milton Williams has shown fairly well in the little bit they've let him on the field. They have some established guys in front of him with Fletcher Cox and Hargrave. So my man doesn't get a whole lot of repetitions.

Nice I remember he was a super athlete at the combine and then the little arms. Kinda like the DT the Falcons just took, but haven't heard of him since the combine. I mocked him to the Bengals and then just never followed through looking for him til I just read his name just now.

[MKnight82]

1 hour ago, Trojan said:

Not in order or anything
Trojan's favorite 5 of the first round
1. Houston Texans - CJ Stroud, it's that he took Will Anderson first incentivizing ARI to move down, then he was the one that moved up and got both of his targets for pick #2. Masterfully played imo. 

2.  New Orleans Saints - Trade up for Will Levis, the way these mocks go he'd probably have fallen to them without the trade up, but this mock the Saints don't have Derek Carr and they shot their shot to address QB. Will Levis has a lot of detractors, but he's a first round QB and the trade up to get him is commendable. I hope irl they don't do that to Carr, but I feel like a similar type move by a team without a QB after that early QB run is a realistic move and great for the mock's health.

3. LA Chargers - Bryan Bresee isn't the healthiest most accomplished on the field guy, but he projects into that Jerry Tillery role so well and the Chargers haven't stopped the run in years. Bresee has a huge role to fill on this defense that lost Khalil Mack, and he's gotta be the compliment to Joey Bosa. I think it makes a lot of sense especially late as I think he's grading consensus wise as a late 1 to 2. His injury history and being the Chargers is a scare, but fit and potential is very nice.

4. New York Giants - Quinten Johnston now I don't like this prospect, but a lot of that dislike is as an early first round pick and personal evaluation that isn't consensus. The Giants have a HUGE need at WR (unless they've addressed it in trade/FA) and although one could compare Johnston to Kevin White, Kevin White's worth another shot in the 20 range on upside. You can also compare him to a successful version of a similarish prospect in Demaryius Thomas. If they get more Thomas than White they've done well. 

5. Literally everyone - This comes before my least favorites, and I'm including them here because as I think about it they make sense, they just at the time were the more startling ones to me. This round was exceptionally well done and to me reads as more realistic than some mocks done by somewhat famous personalities. I really enjoyed it and no major major reaches to me. If I can't pick everyone, it's probably Ravens with Bijan Robinson because their run offense is going to be so gross.

Trojan's least favorite 5 of the first round
1. Chicago Bears - Broderick Jones, I kinda liked Braxton Jones at least to the point he wouldn't be the one I'm trying to replace on the last place Bears. First trade down, awesome, but then take Jalen Carter I feel. The second trade down went basically at the drop off point and you're overpaying for that tier of prospect. I like this Jones too, but this is also passing on Jalen Carter. I don't know if their was another trade maybe lined up, but going a bit deeper and getting a WR would have worked as well. Like if Carolina was bidding against a teens team, that teens team could have been pick of the litter WR and potentially more compensation. I don't dislike the prospect, just the place the trade down went and replaced one of the better young Bears is awkward to me.

2. Washington Commanders - Guard and TE aren't super positionally relevant, though both are 1-2 prospects. I don't especially like Kelee Ringo personally, but I understand some do. I feel like if you rearranged the order to CB, TE, then Guard at the tail end I'd like it more and that means I don't have a real issue with the group. Each individually looks worse to me value wise than the group overall. There were some really good options on the table, but they don't really make sense for the Commanders. This makes more sense to me looking at it in context, but when just glancing it's not my favorite as a round one success. 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers - Once again like the prospect, but TE is not what I would have guessed the Steelers would target. A couple picks before Joey Porter Jr., which seems like a perfect fit in the organization. Dad is a Steeler great, played at Penn State, has the physical build you'd describe for what the Steelers are looking for.

4. Arizona Cardinals - I like Skoronski, but like the Commanders ding, guard in the mid-first feels off -- even if he's good -- and he was drafted to play guard in this situation, though reserve tackle bonus points on the redemption side. I feel like after the trade down the Cardinals landed in a sweet spot for what I view as a top need in cornerback -- Witherspoon, Ringo and Porter shortly after with Banks and Cam Smith also being selected in the round. I really liked the trade down after they were super sniped by the Texans for Will Anderson, I just think a pivot to another defensive need where a lot of top prospects were in range would have been nice. I think I may be a little skewed know he drafts John Michael Schmitz next round and passes on defense again. 

5. Philadelphia Eagles - Adebaware seems like a combine superstar, and I get that his athletic gifts could develop into a good pick in the Eagles rotation (and I'll admit I haven't followed enough to know if the DL depth was retained or if the rookie will get a lot of snaps, but I assume he's learning behind Brandon Graham). This is a SB team though and a developmental gamble doesn't seem like boost to get the ring. Long term maybe, and maybe Ade is ready and I am wrong. I just feel like a more ready less combine super star selection could theorhetically made a push to argue for a championship next year. Christian Gonzalez on the other hand was a slam dunk in that respect and a great replacement for losing Bradberry.

 

Washington took three consensus first round talents at its 3 biggest positions of need.  Not sure what else you could ask for than that. 

[ny92mike]

@RTTRUTH

With the 7+ million base it might be easier to restructure his contract.  You only have done one restructure so you've got two more to use.

Extensions aren't the best way to save money for the current year because of the high APY and 30% subsequent rule.

[RTTRUTH]

3 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

@RTTRUTH

Look at column AL it will show you the subsequent base salary low and high amounts.  I use that when making contracts.

So I still can't pull it off, between the Subsequent 30% rule, and the (IMO) crazy average per year amounts these guys want. I would lose money to extend Kenny Moore. 

[RTTRUTH]

Thanks Mike. I just finally figured something out and managed a quality restructure with Braden Smith. Coming to a league office thread near you.

@ny92mike

[Trojan]

9 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Washington took three consensus first round talents at its 3 biggest positions of need.  Not sure what else you could ask for than that. 

I liked all the picks by everyone. I individually was more or less a little surprised when yours were made, but when you traded up and got Mayer the package made more sense than the parts if that makes sense? "I really enjoyed it and no major major reaches to me" on my everyone section. I acknowledged my being lower on Ringo than most, and that it all makes sense. My least favorite or whatever is a pick 5 from 31 good picks.

[ny92mike]

4 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

So I still can't pull it off, between the Subsequent 30% rule, and the (IMO) crazy average per year amounts these guys want. I would lose money to extend Kenny Moore. 

The crazy APY values are there to prevent low ball contract extensions on quality players.  It was something that was happening early on in this mock so this was put in place to prevent that.  

The way I see it, if you're looking to extend a player, that player is probably pretty good.  I do agree that the 30% rule could be structured a bit different where the second year is 40 to 50% and then goes to 30%.  

This mock imo is too friendly when it comes to freeing up cap space; either by J1 cuts, trading, releasing, restructures.  Extensions should be more about your desire to retain him on your roster and less about saving cap space, but that's just my opinion.

[squire12]

7 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

This mock imo is too friendly when it comes to freeing up cap space; either by J1 cuts, trading, releasing, restructures.  Extensions should be more about your desire to retain him on your roster and less about saving cap space, but that's just my opinion.

there are several instances of players on 5th year rookie deals getting extension that serve both to retain the player for the long run AND trim some cap space for the current year.   That is often down with higher base salaries in the 2nd year, that is then used as a restructure to push more money out to future years.  

I think getting a better handle on how NFL contracts are set up for the high priced players is important going forward.

[RTTRUTH]

7 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

The crazy APY values are there to prevent low ball contract extensions on quality players.  It was something that was happening early on in this mock so this was put in place to prevent that.  

The way I see it, if you're looking to extend a player, that player is probably pretty good.  I do agree that the 30% rule could be structured a bit different where the second year is 40 to 50% and then goes to 30%.  

This mock imo is too friendly when it comes to freeing up cap space; either by J1 cuts, trading, releasing, restructures.  Extensions should be more about your desire to retain him on your roster and less about saving cap space, but that's just my opinion.

You aren't completely wrong. One of my biggest complaints with these exercises usually is for example, my team starts with $40,000,000 available cap. Some team who is widely rumored to be cutting "Player A" restructures player A for a massive $14,000,000 cap savings. Now in free agency because I'm playing it realistic some guy who should have no business competing with me financially is taking me way over on one of my primary targets because he has ridiculously artificial cap space.

 

I appreciate you brother, and the amount of thought and work you put into these. 

[RTTRUTH]

But I do kind of like the 40% year two, back down to 30% idea. Fwiw

[ny92mike]

3 minutes ago, squire12 said:

there are several instances of players on 5th year rookie deals getting extension that serve both to retain the player for the long run AND trim some cap space for the current year.   That is often down with higher base salaries in the 2nd year, that is then used as a restructure to push more money out to future years.  

I think getting a better handle on how NFL contracts are set up for the high priced players is important going forward.

I'm aware of this.  Which is why I mentioned altering the subsequent % rule.  

[ny92mike]

5 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

But I do kind of like the 40% year two, back down to 30% idea. Fwiw

pretty sure this is how it was done in the past mocks it just didn't get carried over to this new build.

[ny92mike]

A lot of things to consider with extensions and a single formula just can't cover it all.  I'm sure there are cases where players would accept an extension for far less than the values here, but I don't want to be that person that determines if he'll take less or want more.  I try to leave subjective opinion out of this.  

So rather than trying to guess what the player would accept or not accept, it's just easier for that value to be set high with the logic of if he's good enough to extend he probably is going to want to be paid if given a long term deal.

I wish I had caught the subsequent year rule early but this extension sheet has been nothing but a pain in my *** from the first day.  All this **** will get fixed for the next run.  I mean, I had a few guys look it over and test it out along with myself and so many things got missed.  Really pissed about this and how the APY values got completely screwed up this year.  Just didn't allot enough time to properly build this mock this year and sadly it bit me in the ***.

 

[DTMW78]

2 for 2 this round, 

Foreman and Walker should make for a nice tandem at RB.

Chris Moore is a nice depth piece as wr 3/4