2023 Roster - some thoughts

[KC_Guy]

I tried to compile somewhat of a roster prediction for 2023 as a base for re-sign/draft considerations, working on the OTC roster data and a few assumptions:

• YOUNG practice squad players and ERFA/RFA will be back (with one exception) - the old "big names" are gone though.
• Cap is tight but managable (didn't have a deeper look at it), however, financial leeway is limited.
• There will be a second round of free agent signings AFTER the draft to fill remaining gaps which could see some vets returning I have listed as "not retained".

The guys on the roster are those I consider to be locks for the final 53 if they stay healthy and re-signings occur as I think. The ones listed at "other players" are those who may make it to training camp - after that we will see.

Players in bold are under contract already now, players in italics are 2022 practice squad players.

So what are the big draft needs (in my opinion):

OT - to replace either Brown or Niang in 2024, may be to compete with Niang already in 2023
WR - a replacement for Smith-Schuster, as quality depth is lacking and Toney seems injury prone
OG, TE, RB - another developmental guy with a view to 2024/2025

Edge - Frank Clark's replacement
DT - to add to the rotation. Possibly a high risk, high reward guy
LB - quality depth. However, could be filled with some 2nd tier vet
S - developmental guy, potential heir to Reid
 

I don't see any value pick being used on CB, as they are extremely young there already. Would not be surprised to see a solid vet being brought in (watch out for a former 1st or 2nd rounder being cut while still on his rookie contract!)

-----

black (bold): 2022 player, still under contract

predictions:

violet: 2022 player, contract extended (incl. practice squad players)
orange: 2022 player, contract extended, ERFA/RFA
black (unbold): 2022 player, contract expired (incl. practice squad players)
red: 2022 player, contract terminated or traded off
blue: Free Agency or trade acquisition
green: Draft Pick

all colors, BOLD: under contract for 2023

Offense (25)

RT - D. Smith, Morris
RG - T. Smith, Kinnard
OC - Humphrey
LG - Thuney, Allegretti
LT - Taylor, Niang
 

Other players: Wylie, Reiter, Caliendo, Brown, Wanogho

Remarks: Brown will be franchised again. The team finally moves on from Wylie.

QB - Mahomes II, Gabbert, Buechele

Other players: Henne, Oladokun

Remarks: At age 38, Henne hangs up the cleats. The team brings in another experienced vet as backup in free agency.

RB - Pacheco, McKinnon, Edwards-Helaire
FB -

Other players: R. Jones, Gordon, Ealy, Perine, Burton,

Remarks: the question is whether they see Ealy as a WR or RB. I'll keep him at RB . No need to retain Gordon after he failed to make any impact this year. Perine will be kept, they didn't bring him on board late this year without a reason.

WR - Valdes-Scantling, Ju. Watson
Slot - Moore
WR - Toney, Rice, James

Other players: Smith-Schuster, Hardman, Ju. Ross, Fryfogle, Jo. Ross,
Powell, Kemp, Smith-Marsette

Remarks: They try to retain Smith-Schuster, but he out-prices himself and goes elsewhere. Hardman could return on a team friendly deal, however, I doubt he will.

TE - Kelce, Gray, Fortson, Bell

Other players: Blanton, Bushman, Franks

Remarks: Franks spent the year on IR, but they rerally seemed to like him. So he's back.

Defense (23)

DE - Anudike-Uzomah, Omenihu, Kaindoh
DT - Nnadi, Wharton
DT - C. Jones, Cowart
DE - Karlaftis, Danna

Other players: Dunlap, Hoskins, Shelton, Clark, Wise, Herring, Saunders, Thompson, Coburn

Remarks: Looking at the Chiefs' cap situation and his performance, there are two options for Clark: extending his contract on a highly incentive based deal, or departing. He chooses the latter. Nnadi departs for greener pastures on a solid deal the Chiefs are unable to match.

WLB - Gay Jr., Tranquill
MLB - Bolton
SLB - Chenal

Other players: Christiansen,  Harris, Cochrane

CB - McDuffie, Ja. Watson
NB - Sneed
CB - J. Williams, Conner

Other players: Bootle, N. Jones

Remarks: With limited options to crack the Chiefs' 53 man roster, Bootle departs for another team.<- got that one wrong

FS - Edwards, Cook, Bush
SS - Reid, N. Johnson

Other players: Amadi, Anderson, Thornhill

Remarks: I consider Thornhill one of the key targets for re-signing.

Specialists (3)

K - Buttker
P - Townsend
LS - Winchester

Other players: ---

 

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by KC_Guy

[KC_Guy]

Based on the above  .. a mock draft:

30 - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

trade: 62, 122, 167 for 54

54 - Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida (remains to be seen whether he'll play inside or outside)
94 - A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forrest
133 - Joe Tippman, IOL, Wisconsin
197 - Shaka Heyward, LB, Duke
218 - Xavier Henderson, S, Michigan State
220 - Myles Murphy, DT, North Carolina
227 - Bumper Pool, LB, Arkansas (cool name, isn't it? Reminds me of Boomer Grigsby)
250 - Ben Sims, TE Baylor
257 - Jeremy Banks, LB, Tennessee
 

With that draft added, the core roster may look like this- with room for six free agent signings especially on defense (DL/CB):

Offense (24)

RT - Niang, B. Jones
RG - Smith, Tippman
OC - Humphrey
LG - Thuney, Allegretti
LT - Brown, Wanogho

QB - Mahomes II, veteran, Buechele

RB - Edwards-Helaire, Pacheco, McKinnon
FB - Burton

WR - Valdes-Scantling, Perry
Slot - Moore
WR - Toney, Ju. Watson

TE - Kelce, Gray, Fortson

Defense (20)

DE - Dexter, Kaindoh
DT - Saunders, Wharton
DT - C. Jones
DE - Karlaftis, Danna

WLB - Gay Jr., Heyward
MLB - Bolton
SLB - Chenal,  Harris

CB - McDuffie, Ja. Watson
NB - Sneed
CB - J. Williams, veteran

FS - Thornhill, Cook
SS - Reid, Henderson

Specialists (3)

K - Buttker
P - Townsend
LS - Winchester

Edited February 16, 2023 by KC_Guy

[onejayhawk]

With Allegretti and Kinnard we seem to be well stocked at OG. Do you anticipate them letting Allegretti walk? Where is Kinnard in your analysis

Nnadi, Saunders and Wharton are all FA. Only Wharton is RFA. You expect Saunders and Wharton back. Why?

Clark is not a FA. Are we going to cut him after a good season?

Will Thornhill return for one year? If so, will they try to move a CB to FS? Watson and Williams both have the size for it. Sneed has experience. 

The CB pool is so deep I cannot imagine that they don't cast bait, even if it's for a conversion project.

[KC_Guy]

3 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

With Allegretti and Kinnard we seem to be well stocked at OG. Do you anticipate them letting Allegretti walk? Where is Kinnard in your analysis

- Kinnard to me is an unknown. He's not a guy I consider a potential starter once one of Smith (after 2024) or Thuney (after 2025) leaves (they can't pay two OG big money), but he might fill one of the six open slots left. Allegretti stays.

Nnadi, Saunders and Wharton are all FA. Only Wharton is RFA. You expect Saunders and Wharton back. Why?

- As I said: I expect Nnadi to walk to greener (more lucrative) pastures. Saunsers probably will be cheaper to retain. My assumption is (as I said at the top - you have to start somewhere) that all ERFA/RFA will be back at least for next year.

Clark is not a FA. Are we going to cut him after a good season?

- That's my assumption, unless they find someone to trade with.

Will Thornhill return for one year? If so, will they try to move a CB to FS? Watson and Williams both have the size for it. Sneed has experience. 

- I don't think Thornhill will return for one year. As I said - I consider him a priority to retain.

The CB pool is so deep I cannot imagine that they don't cast bait, even if it's for a conversion project.

- I have them drafting a Safety on top. For Cornerback I think they'll look for someone with experience to round out that very young room.

 

Edited February 12, 2023 by KC_Guy

[mayanfootball]

I tried to draft based on KC Guy's needs list. Try this on for size:

30.  Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU

62.  Jaelyn Duncan, LOT, Maryland

94. Chris Smith, Safety, Georgia

122. Jalen Graham, LB, Purdue

133. Zacch Pickens, DT, South Carolina

[RedGold]

Dig the OL, would take this off-season.   Dexter is 100% an interior guy though,  maybe a little light on edge.. but overall I would call that a successful off-season. I don’t think Broderick falls that low, but I like the general baseline of how this went. 

[KC_Guy]

On 2/11/2023 at 11:58 AM, KC_Guy said:

QB - Mahomes II, veteran QB, Buechele

Other players: Henne, Oladokun

Remarks: At age 38, Henne hangs up the cleats. The team brings in another experienced vet as backup in free agency.

 

Called it!

[KC_Guy]

Updated the OP with current PS re-signings.

Missing from the 2022 crew:

WR Kemp, RB Gorbon, S Anderson and Amadi.

I'm somewhat surprised Bootle re-signed with little chance to crack the 53 roster.

[Jakuvious]

21 hours ago, KC_Guy said:

Updated the OP with current PS re-signings.

Missing from the 2022 crew:

WR Kemp, RB Gorbon, S Anderson and Amadi.

I'm somewhat surprised Bootle re-signed with little chance to crack the 53 roster.

I imagine when you're that close to the edge of the roster, you'll take the job security there. And he was called up a few times this year, so he wasn't completely blocked out.

As weird as it sounds, a lot honestly might depend on if Cincy actually has any interest in Chris Lammons, or if they kind of own up to the ruse and just let him go. Otherwise Lammons plus Bush could be a huge void in special teams snaps, and the logical competition would be Bootle, Nazeeh Johnson, and the inevitable lower round DBs we pick next season. Johnson had his two highest snap count games of the year in the two playoff games after Cincy snagged Lammons, and both were all special teams.

[RedGold]

15 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I imagine when you're that close to the edge of the roster, you'll take the job security there. And he was called up a few times this year, so he wasn't completely blocked out.

As weird as it sounds, a lot honestly might depend on if Cincy actually has any interest in Chris Lammons, or if they kind of own up to the ruse and just let him go. Otherwise Lammons plus Bush could be a huge void in special teams snaps, and the logical competition would be Bootle, Nazeeh Johnson, and the inevitable lower round DBs we pick next season. Johnson had his two highest snap count games of the year in the two playoff games after Cincy snagged Lammons, and both were all special teams.

Lammons might have some repercussions coming from the whole LV Vegas incident.   

[Jakuvious]

5 hours ago, RedGold said:

Lammons might have some repercussions coming from the whole LV Vegas incident.   

That is a good point, I forgot about that one.

[onejayhawk]

6 hours ago, RedGold said:

Lammons might have some repercussions coming from the whole LV Vegas incident.   

I am convinced that they went looking for Lammon's replacement in the draft and came up with Nazeeh Johnson. If the playoffs are decent evidence they should have better ST play all around. 

[onejayhawk]

I heard a great line on the radio that makes me think that WR will not be a early draft pick. The Chiefs have become the team where WR go to resurrect their career. 

It's not just JuJu, though he's the obvious example. It's Toney. It's Watson. Once the roadblock named Tyreek was removed, things exploded. now, JuJu gets paid to go elsewhere and Hardman's rookie contract expires. They have openings and a reputation. 

We saw in the AFC Championship what MVS could do. Watson was on a one year deal. They will want to re-sign him but some team may throw a lot of money in front of him. There is going to be room for at least one veteran WR.

On the young side, Toney already an important part of the team but has a reputation of being fragile.  Skyy has had moments but also his newbie issues. We have no idea what Justyn Ross will do but he now has a full year of NFL grade rehab and position training. Sure, add a project but not a premium pick. Save that for TE.

 

[Edge]

We don't having any glaring holes on the roster. Ofc it depends on Clark. We might cut him and would need another DE. Another OT, presumably at RT would be usefull as well and of course we need to draft some WR. Overall, i think we're in a comfortable position to go BPA all over the board. I like that.

[KC_Guy]

54 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

I heard a great line on the radio that makes me think that WR will not be a early draft pick. The Chiefs have become the team where WR go to resurrect their career. 

It's not just JuJu, though he's the obvious example. It's Toney. It's Watson. Once the roadblock named Tyreek was removed, things exploded. now, JuJu gets paid to go elsewhere and Hardman's rookie contract expires. They have openings and a reputation. 

We saw in the AFC Championship what MVS could do. Watson was on a one year deal. They will want to re-sign him but some team may throw a lot of money in front of him. There is going to be room for at least one veteran WR.

On the young side, Toney already an important part of the team but has a reputation of being fragile.  Skyy has had moments but also his newbie issues. We have no idea what Justyn Ross will do but he now has a full year of NFL grade rehab and position training. Sure, add a project but not a premium pick. Save that for TE.

 

If they get one to play on a JuJu-like contract it may happen. Otherwise I think they should use the available cap on Brown and Thornhill. There won't be much room beyond it with th re-signings I anticipated in my 2nd post.