2023 Roster - some thoughts

[RedGold]

12 minutes ago, mayanfootball said:

I used to think so too. But lets face it. This Chiefs offense runs thru PM and Kelce. Gray and Fortson certainly aren't "Kelce"

Drafting Mayer now gives us insurance and gives Mayer time to learn under Kelce's tutelage.

4 yrs ago Kelce was only 29. Father time creeps up surely and at times, unexpectedly. If i'm in the AFC i'd be depressed if the Chiefs drafted the best TE in the draft.

It's like telling Marla Hooch "ok Marla turn around and bat left handed" and watching the boys turn around dejectedly moaning "ohhhhhh".

It is an Andy Reid offense.    I think people HIGHLY underrate that.     How many productive TE's did Andy have prior to Kelce??      Andy is going to gameplan and build his offense off what he has available and what will produce.      If we somehow have a year where we have "average" production at the TE position,  our WR #2 is going to go off because Andy will gameplan around him. 

I'm not going to get into the specifics on the bust rate of TE's...  but I can almost promise you,   most that have drafted TE high thinking  "we have solved our TE issues"  have been sorely disappointed.     It is just not a position that translates well from college to pros,  and you're better off taking a raw guy in the middle rounds based on skills and effort.. than a guy who is refined and put up solid stats in college.

 

 

[kingseanjohn]

I’ll reply to some responses later, but a new thought…

Would you give up a 2nd and 4th for DeAndre Hopkins (based on Julio Jones trade)? He’s on the back end of his career but he’s still producing at an elite level with lesser talent around him.

His cap hits would reportedly be ~19mil in 2023 and ~15mil in 2024 post trade. We could ask to do a new deal first. But those cap hits are low for what he brings.

Hopkins, Toney, Moore, Watson(re-sign), and Ross/ISM/Fryfogle/Powell looks way better than what we have currently — assuming MVS is a cap casualty. 

[Jakuvious]

I know some of this is stating the obvious, but there is no replacing Kelce. There is no getting an heir to Kelce or someone to take over when Kelce retires. When Kelce is gone, there is no replacing him. Someone will start at TE, but Kelce from a production standpoint will mostly be replaced elsewhere in the offense. You're, in all likelihood, going to need to improve at WR, probably get a more reliable type of slot WR, to get those yards and TDs. You will not find another TE who's going to go for 1000+ yards every single season, no matter what draft pick you invest in that position. The number of TEs with half as many yards as Kelce this year was single digits. Your median starting TE is good for like 500 yards and 4 TDs. Noah Gray is good enough for that. He can be a starting TE. But if your outlook is, we need to replace Kelce at the TE position, you have already failed. It's not going to happen. While I do support investing picks before the need already exists, this is one spot that just isn't going to work that way, IMO. You're trying to replace Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson or Ed Reed. You're better off admitting that you cannot find another talent like that, and need to just improve teamwide to make up for it.

[Jakuvious]

5 hours ago, RedGold said:

It is an Andy Reid offense.    I think people HIGHLY underrate that.     How many productive TE's did Andy have prior to Kelce??      Andy is going to gameplan and build his offense off what he has available and what will produce.      If we somehow have a year where we have "average" production at the TE position,  our WR #2 is going to go off because Andy will gameplan around him. 

I'm not going to get into the specifics on the bust rate of TE's...  but I can almost promise you,   most that have drafted TE high thinking  "we have solved our TE issues"  have been sorely disappointed.     It is just not a position that translates well from college to pros,  and you're better off taking a raw guy in the middle rounds based on skills and effort.. than a guy who is refined and put up solid stats in college.

 

 

This.

[KC_Guy]

So, while I didn't intend to do a second Mock draft - I finally did, adding one more assumption to my first one:

Orlando Brown will be tagged and traded for cap reasons. As I have no clue which team may do so I randomly picked a mid first round pick as compensation, actually being Tampa Bay's #19.

 

This is what PFN came up with:

19 - Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern: OBJ's heir. Right side will be manned by one of those OT already on the roster.
31 - B.J. Ojulari, Edge, LSU: Frank Clark's heir
63 - Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech: Rotational piece around all of the DL
95 - Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State: The JuJu replacement
122 - Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State: Depth initially
134 - Carrington Valentine, CB, Kentucky: One more in the bullpen
168 - Clayton Tune, QB, Houston: This may be a surprise, but he was best value here. Cheap backup for some time, may compete with Buechele for the #2 job unless they bring in a vet

Risky approach with a lot of youth at key position, especially at OT. But I wouldn't mind this.

Edited February 24, 2023 by KC_Guy

[Chiefer]

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I know some of this is stating the obvious, but there is no replacing Kelce. There is no getting an heir to Kelce or someone to take over when Kelce retires. When Kelce is gone, there is no replacing him. Someone will start at TE, but Kelce from a production standpoint will mostly be replaced elsewhere in the offense. You're, in all likelihood, going to need to improve at WR, probably get a more reliable type of slot WR, to get those yards and TDs. You will not find another TE who's going to go for 1000+ yards every single season, no matter what draft pick you invest in that position. The number of TEs with half as many yards as Kelce this year was single digits. Your median starting TE is good for like 500 yards and 4 TDs. Noah Gray is good enough for that. He can be a starting TE. But if your outlook is, we need to replace Kelce at the TE position, you have already failed. It's not going to happen. While I do support investing picks before the need already exists, this is one spot that just isn't going to work that way, IMO. You're trying to replace Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson or Ed Reed. You're better off admitting that you cannot find another talent like that, and need to just improve teamwide to make up for it.

Kelce is a first ballot Hall of Famer, you can’t replace that. Luckily Patrick is also a first Ballot Hall of Famer, so it’s gonna lessen the blow. I’m hopeful by Kelces retirement, Patrick will be able to dissect coverages at a higher level then he does now and we’ve found a smart possession guy for him to take advantage of. 

 

[onejayhawk]

4 hours ago, KC_Guy said:

So, while I didn't intend to do a second Mock draft - I finally did, adding one more assumption to my first one:

Orlando Brown will be tagged and traded for cap reasons. As I have no clue which team may do so I randomly picked a mid first round pick as compensation, actually being Tampa Bay's #19.

 

This is what PFN came up with:

19 - Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern: OBJ's heir. Right side will be manned by one of those OT already on the roster.
31 - B.J. Ojulari, Edge, LSU: Frank Clark's heir
63 - Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech: Rotational piece around all of the DL
95 - Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State: The JuJu replacement
122 - Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State: Depth initially
134 - Carrington Valentine, CB, Kentucky: One more in the bullpen
168 - Clayton Tune, QB, Houston: This may be a surprise, but he was best value here. Cheap backup for some time, may compete with Buechele for the #2 job unless they bring in a vet

Risky approach with a lot of youth at key position, especially at OT. But I wouldn't mind this.

The big knock of Skoronski is that he is purely RT if he can play OT at all. Many see him as an elite OG candidate. Paris Johnson is the only NFL ready LT and he will go top 10. 

If we don't re-sign OB Jr--which seems to be the plan--then we have to hire a veteran, play a draft pick who is not yet ready, or find a LT already on the roster. 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by onejayhawk

[onejayhawk]

A good point was made on a blog I heard. L'Jarius Sneed has one yea left on his rookie contract. That means it's time to do a long term deal. 

Contrary to this season, in 2020 there was no Sauce Gardner dominating from day #1. The best CB from the 2020 draft was Sneed and he was taken in the 4th round. He deserves a big pay increase and we should lock him in. Also from that class are Willie Gay and Mike Danna. Either or both may deserve an extension. CEH and Lucas Niang, not so much.

[EMAW_KSU]

On 2/24/2023 at 12:19 AM, kingseanjohn said:

I’ll reply to some responses later, but a new thought…

Would you give up a 2nd and 4th for DeAndre Hopkins (based on Julio Jones trade)? He’s on the back end of his career but he’s still producing at an elite level with lesser talent around him.

His cap hits would reportedly be ~19mil in 2023 and ~15mil in 2024 post trade. We could ask to do a new deal first. But those cap hits are low for what he brings.

Hopkins, Toney, Moore, Watson(re-sign), and Ross/ISM/Fryfogle/Powell looks way better than what we have currently — assuming MVS is a cap casualty. 

Yes, in fact, I’d probably consider giving up our first if we perhaps got another pic back.  To me this is a no brainier, he’s made a couple posts that seem to elude he would be up for it.  The curious thing to me is.  What value could we create.  Would he work his deal to play with PM2 and have a real shot at a ring?

[EMAW_KSU]

A couple interesting thoughts for me. 1. The only way Clark comes back is if we save comparable money.  NFL.com has it at 21 million dollars we would save against the cap by cutting him.  Cut him, get Nuk, draft an Edge…VICTORY.  
 

Or, it looks like J Houston could be a Cap casualty in Baltimore, yet again outplayed Clark.  Could we bring him home for one last run, draft an edge to rotate with Danna and GK?

OBJr. We need him, but gosh it seems like there should be someone better.  Honestly if his price tag is where it was last year, my thought process is tag and trade.  Take the first decent offer and move on.  For what he thinks he’s worth we shouldn’t see him get dominated by every speed rusher.

Needs for me

OT(2), WR, Edge, S, 

[onejayhawk]

17 hours ago, EMAW_KSU said:

A couple interesting thoughts for me. 1. The only way Clark comes back is if we save comparable money.  NFL.com has it at 21 million dollars we would save against the cap by cutting him.  Cut him, get Nuk, draft an Edge…VICTORY.  
 

Or, it looks like J Houston could be a Cap casualty in Baltimore, yet again outplayed Clark.  Could we bring him home for one last run, draft an edge to rotate with Danna and GK?

OBJr. We need him, but gosh it seems like there should be someone better.  Honestly if his price tag is where it was last year, my thought process is tag and trade.  Take the first decent offer and move on.  For what he thinks he’s worth we shouldn’t see him get dominated by every speed rusher.

Needs for me

OT(2), WR, Edge, S, 

Houston did not outplay Clark. He did get more sacks but he was a situational pass rusher, playing less than half the time. Clark played over 70% of snaps and he staff gushes about his leadership. He also came up big in the playoffs again. He's a candidate to restructure. 

If we tag OB Jr again, he will be just under $20 MM. 

This is a good DT draft. We could get Chris Jones some help.

 

[kingseanjohn]

2 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Houston did not outplay Clark. He did get more sacks but he was a situational pass rusher, playing less than half the time. Clark played over 70% of snaps and he staff gushes about his leadership. He also came up big in the playoffs again. He's a candidate to restructure. 

In the regular season Houston outplayed Clark on a per snap basis:

Clark: 15 games - 717 snaps - 13 QBHits - 8 TFL - 5 sacks - 1 FF

Houston: 14 games - 397 snaps - 17 QBHits - 7 TFL - 9.5 sacks - 1 FF - 1 INT

 

Playoffs are debatable since Clark played in 2 more games.

Clark: 3 games - 4 QBHits - 3 TFL - 2.5 sacks

Houston: 1 game - 1 QBHit - 1 TFL -1 sack

 

I'm fully on board with extending/restructuring Clark. But he's nowhere near as efficient as Houston was. And I'm not saying Houston would remain that efficient if he did have the higher snap count. But you can't discount as good or better stats with a lower snap count.

[kingseanjohn]

21 hours ago, EMAW_KSU said:

Or, it looks like J Houston could be a Cap casualty in Baltimore, yet again outplayed Clark.  Could we bring him home for one last run, draft an edge to rotate with Danna and GK?

If Carlos Dunlap is looking to get paid or decides to retire, I'd love to bring Houston back as that veteran rotational guy.

[onejayhawk]

21 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

If Carlos Dunlap is looking to get paid or decides to retire, I'd love to bring Houston back as that veteran rotational guy.

That I can agree with. I would love to see JH retire a Chief. 

[EMAW_KSU]

20 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

If Carlos Dunlap is looking to get paid or decides to retire, I'd love to bring Houston back as that veteran rotational guy.

This is what I’m saying.  Houston in a rotation vs Clark being overpaid.  Clark did show up in the playoffs again.  But was barely visible throughout the season AGAIN.  Where Houston succeeds situationally, I don’t feel like that would be Clark’s strong suit.  Either way I see us drafting for the future, this draft has tons of talent.