hrubes20 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said: Probably a little high, but I'd rather overpay at 3 years than have to commit to a 4-5 year deal. Cubs are said to have a 4 year - 110 million offer out there to him, so it'll have to beat that... At 4 years, I wouldn't want to go more than $115-120 million... That was from Nightengale. You'd be better off disregarding everything he spews out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said: I still dont believe that, the language on that report was so vague "could be willing to go as high as..." To me thats a total stab in the dark by Nightengale, especially since not a single other report of an offer to Arrieta from the Cubs has surfaced. He didnt get to cash in after '14/'15, and has been on the decline since then. He is still a very good pitcher, just no longer an Ace. and at 32, he is probably going for a higher AAV anyway, but there is no reason to go with $33m per year for him. Its not just alittle high, its outrageously high. Its almost $6m more per year than this supposed Max that the Cubs would go to. If you were going to tell me that we toss him that $33m AAV at him for a 2 year deal, sure Im probably listening, but not for more than that. With as slow as this market is, it seems that the players are asking way too much (in the GMs eyes) or else some of these guys would have signed by now. Because with the new artificial cap, no one wants to spend that much. This isnt 4 years ago where money was being tossed around like candy. I still think Arrieta's cap is a 4 year deal. And if he wants to go less than that, he may get as high as a $30m AAV. But not both., Fair enough, so with that being said would you do 3 years - $90 million? I think I would pounce on that. His numbers have likely been in decline due to his workload and the deep playoff runs the Cubs made during that tenure. With him having near a full off-season to recover and the way he takes care of himself physically, I think he's an excellent bounce back candidate. I don't think he'll ever get back to the elite level he was, but I think he can be a very good #2 starter on a playoff team. I'd overpay for that on a short term... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: Fair enough, so with that being said would you do 3 years - $90 million? I think I would pounce on that. His numbers have likely been in decline due to his workload and the deep playoff runs the Cubs made during that tenure. With him having near a full off-season to recover and the way he takes care of himself physically, I think he's an excellent bounce back candidate. I don't think he'll ever get back to the elite level he was, but I think he can be a very good #2 starter on a playoff team. I'd overpay for that on a short term... What makes you think he'd even be close to being receptive to a 3 year deal even if it came with a higher AAV? According to Bruce Levine 6 years, $160M is the "starting point" for Arrieta. Right now, that seems unlikely at best. But even if you knock it down a year and shave some off the AAV that's still 5 years, $125M which seems doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, CWood21 said: What makes you think he'd even be close to being receptive to a 3 year deal even if it came with a higher AAV? According to Bruce Levine 6 years, $160M is the "starting point" for Arrieta. Right now, that seems unlikely at best. But even if you knock it down a year and shave some off the AAV that's still 5 years, $125M which seems doable. I don't think he'd be receptive initially, but I don't think he's going to like where his market ends up. I don't see a team right now giving him a 5 year deal, unless some mystery team swoops in at the last minute. Even Bruce Levine eluded to the fact that Arrieta's market may not be what we all expected, along with list of potential suitors. This market is completely different than what we've ever seen and I think the fact that most FO's now are analytically driven is going to be the downfall for these guys in their mid 30's getting long term deals. We'll see though... I think @StLunatic88 is right on that Arrieta's cap is likely 4 years... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, kgarrett12486 said: I don't think he'd be receptive initially, but I don't think he's going to like where his market ends up. I don't see a team right now giving him a 5 year deal, unless some mystery team swoops in at the last minute. Even Bruce Levine eluded to the fact that Arrieta's market may not be what we all expected, along with list of potential suitors. This market is completely different than what we've ever seen and I think the fact that most FO's now are analytically driven is going to be the downfall for these guys in their mid 30's getting long term deals. We'll see though... I think @StLunatic88 is right on that Arrieta's cap is likely 4 years... I'm still skeptical that a pitcher of Arrieta's stature would take a 3 year deal. I think it's far more likely he takes a 1 year deal than him accepting a 3 year deal. He's going to be 32 years old in a few months, which would put him back in FA around age 35 and nobody is going to commit a significant long-term deal to a 35 year old pitcher, especially if his sign of aging continues to show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tttmikeb Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 (edited) Aren't him and Matt Carpenter old TCU buddies? Get Carpenter to give him a call and convince him to take a discount deal. Edited January 5, 2018 by tttmikeb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I'm still skeptical that a pitcher of Arrieta's stature would take a 3 year deal. I think it's far more likely he takes a 1 year deal than him accepting a 3 year deal. He's going to be 32 years old in a few months, which would put him back in FA around age 35 and nobody is going to commit a significant long-term deal to a 35 year old pitcher, especially if his sign of aging continues to show. If he wants to take a 1 year deal, I think that would be the ideal scenario for us. On the flip side though, if he took a 1 year deal and continued his decline, he could really destroy his value... He's going to be 32 going into the season and has had a decline trend working against him. That's not in his favor. Teams are becoming more reluctant to pay for what guys have done recently vs. what they project moving forward. This wasn't the case 2-4 years ago... Only way I see him taking the 3 year deal is if his market stays consistent going into February and a team gives him a significant AAV. Which I think could be a possibility if this continues to drag out... Maybe a team throws a club option in there for a 4th year... Even if he became a FA again at 35 and was still pitching good and eating innings, there would be teams willing to give him a 1-2 year deal with a good salary just like Cubs did with Lackey... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said: Fair enough, so with that being said would you do 3 years - $90 million? I would be much more inclined to that deal. I still think its a bit too high for where his trajectory is going, but if he could be the veran anchor, and possibly a really good #2 for a playoff run, it would be worth it. 2 hours ago, CWood21 said: According to Bruce Levine 6 years, $160M is the "starting point" for Arrieta That is a pipe-dream and they know it. Arrieta was possibly getting that contract in 2015, not in 2018. Teams are only giving out long term, high dollar deals to the select group of players. Franchise cornerstones, not 32 y/o guys on the way back down from their peak. 1 hour ago, CWood21 said: I'm still skeptical that a pitcher of Arrieta's stature would take a 3 year deal. Arrietta is in a very special circumstance. Honestly, with this new strange FA world, I dont know what he "diserves" anymore, but it is sure to be short of what a pitcher of his statue wants. 1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said: I think @StLunatic88 is right on that Arrieta's cap is likely 4 years... I think he may be the case were we start to see GMs and Agents really start to get creative with Club and Player options. Personally I would give him a 3 year deal that pays him in the $28m AAV range, with that 3rd year being a Player option. If he comes back out in the next 2 years like a house on fire, an he is trending back toward that Cy Young range, then he can opt out a year early to get one more big cash in before he turns 35. Or if he is under performing, he rides out that 3rd year (likely being over paid) and then takes what is out there for him as a 35 y/o middling pitcher. Edited January 5, 2018 by StLunatic88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports the Cardinals signed RHP Preston Guilmet to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league spring training. Guilmet pitched for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball in 2017. The 30-year-old right-hander last pitched in the majors in 2015 for the Rays and Brewers. He has accumulated just 19 appearances in parts of three major league seasons with four teams, combining for an 8.22 ERA in 23 innings. He will battle for a spot in the Cardinals' bullpen in spring training. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Im not opposed to an Arrieta signing. As long as the contract doesn't exceed four years. I'd go either 4/$100 or 3/$90. Something around that range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 So the Blue Jays are acquiring 3B Yangervis Solarte from the Padres. Lot of speculation on Twitter that this could influence Donaldson situation... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 5:57 PM, kgarrett12486 said: So the Blue Jays are acquiring 3B Yangervis Solarte from the Padres. Lot of speculation on Twitter that this could influence Donaldson situation... He can play 2B as well. He'll presumably be their starting 2B, and Aledmys Diaz will be their backup MIF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Rick Hummel had an interesting Q/A session yesterday. He states the same thing that we all hear/see. The current market is at an impasse, as teams are unwilling to go longer-term for players into their 30's and those said players/agents are holding to their guns... He states the Cardinals specifically aren't out of the reliever or starter market, but they are unlikely to offer anyone over a 3 year deal. He mentions they would possibly go 4 years on a starter if the fit/financials were right... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Is this the make/break year for Kolten Wong as the starting 2B moving forward? He had a rebound year last year and put up some good numbers, 2 WAR, .376 OBP and highest OPS of his career. We all know he can make any defensive play/throw at 2B, but still has issues with the routine plays here and there... The injury really hurt him last year, as he was limited to 107 games. He's only had 1 year of playing more than 140 games, which is concerning. I think he needs to stay healthy and put up similar numbers to last year to remain a viable option moving forward at 2B IMO... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 41 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: Is this the make/break year for Kolten Wong as the starting 2B moving forward? He had a rebound year last year and put up some good numbers, 2 WAR, .376 OBP and highest OPS of his career. We all know he can make any defensive play/throw at 2B, but still has issues with the routine plays here and there... The injury really hurt him last year, as he was limited to 107 games. He's only had 1 year of playing more than 140 games, which is concerning. I think he needs to stay healthy and put up similar numbers to last year to remain a viable option moving forward at 2B IMO... It looked like he turned the corner last year. I think he’ll continue that for the foreseeable future. He is a great fit for the 8-hole. It stinks he never lived up to his top of the order potential but he’s still a nice player. I think he’ll be more comfortable with his new plate approach this year and drive the gaps a little more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.