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Is QB Caleb Williams in the god tier of prospects?


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2 hours ago, BetterCallSaul said:

He was not a generational prospect. He was not even considered top 3 QB in his own draft class. Let's not get crazy.

In terms of raw talent and measurements, Josh Allen was a generational prospect. That’s not to say Allen was a unanimous 1st overall pick type of QB prospect by any means. Too many people worried about the level of competition and questioned what contributed to his accuracy numbers. The context for Allen as a prospect was polarizing as well as in comparison to the other QB prospects in his class. The background for which his talent was measured against drove some people away because it was so much less comparable to NFL competition than USC’s with Sam Darnold or even UCLA’s with Josh Rosen. No one could form a consensus on these QB prospects and order them from best to worst with any consistency. Allen wasn’t even brought up as a first round pick in discussions here I remember until very late in the process. But everyone saw and agreed that the raw ability of Allen was superior to anyone in his class and the combination of raw traits that he had was elite amongst the best prospects over the last couple of decades. Arm strength, athleticism, body, and youth were all areas where Allen excels and those areas stood out from the beginning which propelled him to the top 10 of the draft.

As for Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, and Jackson, all of them had things held against them as I said but without the high ceiling that Allen has/had. With Rosen it was personality/age/injury history, with Mayfield it was height/experience/system, with Jackson it was play-style and durability as it related to his size as well as questions about his accuracy/processing and racism may have been a factor. Sam Darnold it was really just fumbles and how is he without “elite talent” surrounding him at USC. I wasn’t particularly crazy about any of them but Josh Allen was the obvious QB prospect with a combination of freakish traits and I think that most people acknowledged that at least despite their hate. In that respect, I saw Allen and still do as a generational prospect.

 

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34 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

In terms of raw talent and measurements, Josh Allen was a generational prospect.

Was Colin Kaepernick "generational" too?
6'5" 233, faster than Josh, better 3 cone, just as big of an arm.

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20 minutes ago, Jeezla said:

Was Colin Kaepernick "generational" too?
6'5" 233, faster than Josh, better 3 cone, just as big of an arm.

He doesn’t have the same size and he throws the ball like it’s a baseball. I see why you compare the two for the point you’re trying to make but I don’t think it’s a good comparison. Allen was drafted 7th overall after all versus Kaepernick who had more flaws and fell to the second round.

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35 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

He doesn’t have the same size and he throws the ball like it’s a baseball. I see why you compare the two for the point you’re trying to make but I don’t think it’s a good comparison. Allen was drafted 7th overall after all versus Kaepernick who had more flaws and fell to the second round.

Flaws are irrelevant. We're talking pure physical tools, and I don't see what Josh has going on for him over Kaep in that department, other than weighing a whole 5 extra pounds. Josh might know how to use his tools better, but they got the same tool belt. And that means Josh isn't "generational". Basically, we all just need to stop using the word generational.

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2 hours ago, Jeezla said:

Flaws are irrelevant. We're talking pure physical tools, and I don't see what Josh has going on for him over Kaep in that department, other than weighing a whole 5 extra pounds. Josh might know how to use his tools better, but they got the same tool belt. And that means Josh isn't "generational". Basically, we all just need to stop using the word generational.

I disagree with your assessment of the two and in general with your opinion about using generational to describe something. I think and see one thing and you think and see another. I think Kaepernick and Allen are working with completely different tool belts as it relates to throwing and running and their mentalities within and towards the sport are different as well. The way each responds or has responded to adversity in different capacities separates them as NFL athletes as well.

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7 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

I disagree with your assessment of the two and in general with your opinion about using generational to describe something. I think and see one thing and you think and see another. I think Kaepernick and Allen are working with completely different tool belts as it relates to throwing and running and their mentalities within and towards the sport are different as well. The way each responds or has responded to adversity in different capacities separates them as NFL athletes as well.

How long is a "generation" in your opinion?

I disagree with your disagreement. Same tools, just different skill levels at using said tools. Cam Newton also had the same tools. Josh is just better at using them.

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1 minute ago, Jeezla said:

How long is a "generation" in your opinion?

I think Vic Fangio recently put it best to describe Allen and relate it to a previous generation QB, John Elway. Fangio said Allen is Elway “on steroids”.

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/josh-allen-new-john-elway-on-steroids-buffalo-bills-qb-scouted-by-miami-dolphins-coach-week-18-showdown-preview-playoffs-broncos

"They are very similar," Fangio said of Allen and Elway. "Different body types, different running styles, but the same problems for sure. Allen is just a beast of a guy. A physical specimen."

Just to reiterate my disagreement with the comparison of Josh Allen and Colin Kaepernick; Fangio hit on something that also occurs to me. The instincts, mentality, and style of running, throwing, and competing matter as much as the height/weight/speed/arm, which I mention and alluded to in the post comparing Allen and Jackson in the same draft class among the other QB’s selected that year in the first round. Kaepernick and Allen’s tools are to me as different as their path to the NFL and their success and the results of their careers.

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16 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

I think Vic Fangio recently put it best to describe Allen and relate it to a previous generation QB, John Elway. Fangio said Allen is Elway “on steroids”.

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/josh-allen-new-john-elway-on-steroids-buffalo-bills-qb-scouted-by-miami-dolphins-coach-week-18-showdown-preview-playoffs-broncos

"They are very similar," Fangio said of Allen and Elway. "Different body types, different running styles, but the same problems for sure. Allen is just a beast of a guy. A physical specimen."

Just to reiterate my disagreement with the comparison of Josh Allen and Colin Kaepernick; Fangio hit on something that also occurs to me. The instincts, mentality, and style of running, throwing, and competing matter as much as the height/weight/speed/arm, which I mention and alluded to in the post comparing Allen and Jackson in the same draft class among the other QB’s selected that year in the first round. Kaepernick and Allen’s tools are to me as different as their path to the NFL and their success and the results of their careers.

You and Vic are talking about finished product Josh Allen, not draft prospect Josh Allen. Forget what these guys did in the pros, and just compare their "tools" heading into the draft. Not much different. Big athletic guys with rocket launcher arms. Trey Lance? Same tools as college Josh Allen, albeit shorter by 2/3". Cam Newton? Same tools. NFL Josh Allen is vastly different from college Josh Allen.

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7 minutes ago, Jeezla said:

You and Vic are talking about finished product Josh Allen, not draft prospect Josh Allen. Forget what these guys did in the pros, and just compare their "tools" heading into the draft. Not much different. Big athletic guys with rocket launcher arms. Trey Lance? Same tools as college Josh Allen.

If you or anyone else looks at Trey Lance and Colin Kaepernick and Josh Allen from college and how they ran and how they threw, regardless of competition, and sees the same thing then I don’t believe they know what to look for or how to interpret what they watch.

And I think Vic Fangio is describing the physicality, athletic nature/arm talent, and style of play of Allen and Elway which both had before being finished products in the NFL. It was a comparison of the two as “dudes” as he put it.

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6 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

If you or anyone else looks at Trey Lance and Colin Kaepernick and Josh Allen from college and how they ran and how they three regardless of competition and sees the same thing then I don’t believe they know what to look for or how to interpret what they watch.

I saw a project in all of them. 

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Just now, DoleINGout said:

Fair enough. I think that is kind of vague and discounts the variety between them as projects but from a more macro perspective I agree they were all projects in a sense.

None of them were close to being finished products coming out of college, but all of them had the physical "tools" that make you fantasize about their ceiling. Huge arm. Athletic enough to run for 50+ any given game day. Enough size to take some sacks and bulldoze someone. They all had accuracy, consistency, field vision concerns.

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To describe this perhaps a little more succinctly, I think Allen is as physically gifted a QB as there has ever been. Any generation that Allen gets compared to to-date, he is a superior human being in terms of all encompassing physical traits. That is just my opinion of the dude athletically. Caleb Williams being described as a generational combination of natural talent and being the closest thing to an NFL-ready Patrick Mahomes that many have prognosticated at one time or another I can’t get on board with because I don’t see it. I don’t think Caleb has elite athleticism, arm talent or elite NFL-readiness in terms of processing, maturity, intangibles, leadership, or the acumen to make him an unquestioned first overall pick/best player in the NFL Draft and I don’t think he has earned those accolades or comparisons. At USC does he “create plays” by scrambling around? Sure! Is he elite at it? Well for a college player yes! Does he show the elite athletic traits doing it? In my opinion no! I see a guy who too regularly breaks from play design and maybe that is a function of poor offensive coordination and play calling but clearly he needs better development. So what is left of Caleb Williams the NFL QB prospect is a guy who isn’t generational in any capacity other than he has talent and was clearly productive at the college level. He has above average traits in many areas where he probably gives a team the opportunity to develop him into a very good starting QB more so than most others at the position in this draft.

A generation in the NFL I would characterize by the distinction in schematic style that is the prevailing majority of teams and can have overlap between the longest tenured person within a position group of the previous schematic style that was the norm and the current. I look at the volume of players generally starting for teams within the construction of a system geared towards their strengths and compare it to the system or rules of what may have previously been most common.

At quarterback for instance, Brady is retired now but he was one of the last remaining active players at the position from when the league was dominated by offenses with drop-back passing from under center before shotgun formations became the norm. Brady in essence represented the last of his generation before Mahomes took over the mantle for a new style of play that overlapped with Brady’s career.

Each generation can be defined by the set of rules that the NFL chooses to adapt and the schemes that accompany those rules. In addition to changes in rules, the traits of the athletic pool from which teams have to choose from dictates the direction organizations invest in. People playing QB today are featured far more often in run-options or designed runs, and concurrently people who play QB seem to excel at running athletically more than before. The emphasis on fitness and mobility in society may be contributing factor in all of this as much as genetics and equal opportunity and greater scouting departments/recruitment at all levels of football.

The game started to slowly change during Brady’s career away from pocket passers who seldom scrambled away or were productive because of it. There were previous scrambling QB’s in other generation before Brady’s but those are outliers remember, not the norm. Modern styles evolve it seems like over every span of 5-10 years as new classes of players are introduced to the league and the type of athletes adapt and flourish depending on the set of rules that are employed by the NFL that shape the direction the game is played in.

Generational as a term is so subjective when describing athletes that in my opinion it can vary position to position, by job title, and by sport. Even if a generation is generally measured across the spectrum of modern day life to be one whole age group of adults, I would agree that using it to describe Caleb Williams is inaccurate as it relates to the QB position since he is not in anyway representative of how the game is played today any more distinctly so than what the NFL already actively acclimates to with it’s prolific QB’s like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and so on. Caleb doesn’t seem to mark any new beginning or transition in featured style at large any more so than people who have come before him and he doesn’t seem like he is set to do it any better than anyone that is currently doing it either.

At the advent of top QB prospects featuring a greater aptitude, ability, and frequency towards mobility outside the pocket in combination with standard pocket passing, we got the likes of Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, and Andrew Luck to name a few. Caleb Williams doesn’t represent (to me) a stark contrast from, higher aptitude than, or speak to a general shift in style of play any greater or dramatically than those aforementioned QB’s did. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels possibly could represent a shift in the style of play of the next generation of QB prospects that the NFL trends towards if that style proves most indicative of success/winning going forward. Mike Vick, Donovan McNabb, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick even might have been early outliers in the previous generations at their position but maybe they were just way ahead of their time and played in the “wrong era” for their skill sets to be optimized for success. Either way, point I’m making is Caleb Williams isn’t anything special or generational in my opinion.

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2 hours ago, Jeezla said:

None of them were close to being finished products coming out of college, but all of them had the physical "tools" that make you fantasize about their ceiling. Huge arm. Athletic enough to run for 50+ any given game day. Enough size to take some sacks and bulldoze someone. They all had accuracy, consistency, field vision concerns.

Yeah I just think if you ask people who watched them play in college they would be able to discern the obvious differences between how they threw, how they ran, and what sort of impact they might have based on how adaptable those differences are between them. Josh Allen in college was the biggest, strongest, ran the most aggressive and freely, in addition to having the liveliest arm which displayed more arc/loft and touch/variation more often than those you’re drawing a comparison to.

Basically, I think Kaepernick’s (and Lance’s) tools were more flawed compared than Allen’s. History has basically shown that to be true since Kaepernick never really developed or flourished as a passer and Allen has. If Kaepernick could process and throw better, period, regardless of the media distraction potential he brought or the leadership flaws he exhibited on the Niners at the end especially, he’d have not been an undesirable free agent. Unfortunately, Kaepernick relied too heavily on his legs, started dealing with injuries, became less effective and didn’t compensate for it with his arm (same goes for Lance) and neither picked up the intricacies required to balance the position as passers.

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