What Goes Into a Pick?

[goldfishwars]

What are some of the factors which go into a pick, that are often under-discussed, beyond need and ability?

I always feel like we are surprised when the actual draft rolls around and sensible mocks are replaced by a more chaotic reality and I think it has something to do with the below (feel free to add your own): 

* There's an upcoming contract situation at a particular spot where a cheaper rookie might replace a veteran in a year's time

* There is a divisional opponent with a particular strength to match up with

* There is a specific skill-set missing on a roster - perhaps triggered by a new coaching staff who needs it to run their scheme effectively

* X player has interviewed particularly well - knows the x's and o's

* X player has interviewed particularly poorly - is immature or shows limited football knowledge 

* X Player is (not) a culture fit

* X player 'feels' like a fit for what the team historically chooses - this could be a simple personality trait attributed to toughness or competitiveness 

* There is a stringent set of arbitrary scouting rules around player size, athletic ability and positional value 

* The front office does not like dealing with the agent of a particular prospect

* There is a front-office power struggle, or the scouting department and decision-makers are unaligned  

* The owner wants the team to be more marketable (exciting)

 

 

 

[sparky151]

Drafting is all about projection. How will a prospect fit into your team? With only 53 roster spots at a time, it's hard to carry players for development down the road. Moving the cutdown from 90 to 53 will probably help teams slide late round draftees through waivers to the practice squad where nobody else can see them. 

My guess is the combine interviews aren't very important. Teams are always trying to trip up the heavily prepared players with goofy or trick questions but it probably doesn't matter much what type of plant or breed of dog a player would be. Dinner with the owners for the elite prospects matters more. No GM wants to take a guy their boss wasn't impressed by. 

Teams also have different philosophies in terms of need vs BPA. A lot of that is influenced by how much job security the personnel guys have. Need will be more important for GMs on the hot seat. 

[RTTRUTH]

The injury none of us hear about pre-draft. It seems there’s 1-2 every year

[jebrick]

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

My guess is the combine interviews aren't very important. Teams are always trying to trip up the heavily prepared players with goofy or trick questions but it probably doesn't matter much what type of plant or breed of dog a player would be. Dinner with the owners for the elite prospects matters more. No GM wants to take a guy their boss wasn't impressed by. 

I disagree.  It is a job interview.  There are too many occurrences of players going up or down based on their interviews.  Aaron Rogers is a famous example where he was late for an interview with the 49'ers and acted like he did not give a poo because he is ARod.  They hated him for it because he was perceived ( correctly) as a a-hole and passed on him causing him to tumble.

[Trojan]

The salary of first round picks aren't similar (the listed at for year 1)

2 picks-@- 7.xxmil
3 picks -@- 6.xxmil
1 picks -@- 5.xxmil
4 picks (top 10) -@- 4.xxmil
5 picks (11-15) -@- 3.xxmil
17 (18 most years) picks -@- 2.xxmil

A team like the Raiders picking early (4.8mil year one hit at pick 7) might consider a trade down while having 2.4mil in cap space. I think most think trade up to 3 for QB at this point, but the money could become a talking point. They also could theoretically be hiding a team need with like Andre James being the cut the makes space of their higher salary players, but having him on roster makes center appear less of a need. Something like Raiders trade down to any team who still rates Jalen Carter as a top two prospect, but picks really low may move to 7 to get him then Raiders take Hendon Hooker late first and someone like JMS at 38. Alternatively, the LV trades to ARI could include Andre James in the trade up as they lack a center and would allow the Raiders space to afford the #3 pick which by itself is more than their cap room allows at the moment.

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, jebrick said:

I disagree.  It is a job interview.  There are too many occurrences of players going up or down based on their interviews.  Aaron Rogers is a famous example where he was late for an interview with the 49'ers and acted like he did not give a poo because he is ARod.  They hated him for it because he was perceived ( correctly) as a a-hole and passed on him causing him to tumble.

That would be a double error then by the 49ers. Making a pick based on punctuality as well as misjudging the talent level between Smith and Rodgers. 

Teams get 15 minutes with a limited number of the hundreds of players at the combine. It's not unusual for a team to draft someone they didn't interview there and who didn't visit the team as part of their 30 visits. No doubt the area scout has talked to the player and his coaches but the GM may not have. 

 

[sparky151]

19 minutes ago, Trojan said:

The salary of first round picks aren't similar (the listed at for year 1)

2 picks-@- 7.xxmil
3 picks -@- 6.xxmil
1 picks -@- 5.xxmil
4 picks (top 10) -@- 4.xxmil
5 picks (11-15) -@- 3.xxmil
17 (18 most years) picks -@- 2.xxmil

A team like the Raiders picking early (4.8mil year one hit at pick 7) might consider a trade down while having 2.4mil in cap space. I think most think trade up to 3 for QB at this point, but the money could become a talking point. They also could theoretically be hiding a team need with like Andre James being the cut the makes space of their higher salary players, but having him on roster makes center appear less of a need. Something like Raiders trade down to any team who still rates Jalen Carter as a top two prospect, but picks really low may move to 7 to get him then Raiders take Hendon Hooker late first and someone like JMS at 38. Alternatively, the LV trades to ARI could include Andre James in the trade up as they lack a center and would allow the Raiders space to afford the #3 pick which by itself is more than their cap room allows at the moment.

I don't think rookie cap hits influence drafting much. Teams will move up or down based on the quality of the player they can get at a particular slot. The price of the slot won't change regardless of who the pick is used on. It's easy enough to clear cap space so a team with a rookie pool of say 5 mil which only has 2 mil of cap space currently will make some moves to gain space and then will sign their rookies without incident. 

 

 

[jebrick]

6 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

That would be a double error then by the 49ers. Making a pick based on punctuality as well as misjudging the talent level between Smith and Rodgers. 

Teams get 15 minutes with a limited number of the hundreds of players at the combine. It's not unusual for a team to draft someone they didn't interview there and who didn't visit the team as part of their 30 visits. No doubt the area scout has talked to the player and his coaches but the GM may not have. 

 

In hindsight, yes, but IT IS A JOB INTERVIEW.  How often do you blow off a job interview.  Act like another name for a mule?  Sometimes, there are consequences and in this case it was about 20 picks.

[Trojan]

14 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

I don't think rookie cap hits influence drafting much. Teams will move up or down based on the quality of the player they can get at a particular slot. The price of the slot won't change regardless of who the pick is used on. It's easy enough to clear cap space so a team with a rookie pool of say 5 mil which only has 2 mil of cap space currently will make some moves to gain space and then will sign their rookies without incident. 

 

 

Then why do people not want Bijan in the top 10? Kyle Hamilton last year, or similar but to a lesser variant -- Tyler Linderbaum? This year TE is likely also effected outside of the Bijan thing. I could see a lot of movement to cluster a lot of TE, RB, S (Branch) into the bottom of the 1st where they at <3mil. I think it's a portion of why a team will reach on a  QB more than others as a backup QB (in the bad scenario) isn't outrageous to make 5-10mil.

edit: part 2, yeah it's easy to clear that space but if the team is gunning to do those moves they could be secretly signalling but not moving the space beforehand. The Raiders specifically aren't budgeted for pick 7. It is budgeted for pick 3 if they include or release Andre James, or it works to trade down where they don't need that space they haven't made.

Edited April 8, 2023 by Trojan

[sparky151]

Not wanting Bijan in the top 10 has nothing to do with his salary. It's based on the diminished value of running backs in the NFL. 50 years ago teams regularly played 2 ball carriers in the backfield. Czonka and Morris or Bleier and Harris had seasons where both gained a thousand yards rushing. Then teams went to one primary ball carrier. Longtime fantasy players remember Priest Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander. Now it's one ball carrier and most teams split carries and only run the ball 40-45% of the time. 

Robinson is better than the RBs who will be on the board in round 2 or 3 but the opportunity cost of picking him early instead of someone who will have a longer career is high. 

 

[BetterCallSaul]

Way too much most times in my opinion. Watch the film. Vet their character. Make sure they fit your scheme and coaches vision. Draft BPA at positions of need, unless there is an insane talent at a non-need position.

Guys overthink stuff IMO. The tricky thing would be trades more than player selections. 

[Hunter2_1]

“How can I f with my fan base this time…”

- Bill 

[MWil23]

Occasionally you’ll see the desire to get that 5th year option in the late first via a trade up.

[ScoDucks823]

On 4/8/2023 at 3:32 PM, sparky151 said:

Not wanting Bijan in the top 10 has nothing to do with his salary. It's based on the diminished value of running backs in the NFL. 50 years ago teams regularly played 2 ball carriers in the backfield. Czonka and Morris or Bleier and Harris had seasons where both gained a thousand yards rushing. Then teams went to one primary ball carrier. Longtime fantasy players remember Priest Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander. Now it's one ball carrier and most teams split carries and only run the ball 40-45% of the time. 

Robinson is better than the RBs who will be on the board in round 2 or 3 but the opportunity cost of picking him early instead of someone who will have a longer career is high. 

 

Agree with the rest of this but I think RB is the one position where rookie salary actually does play a fairly significant role. A top 10 pick salary would make him already a top 5 paid back or something. One huge benefit of having productive rookies/guys on rookie contracts is that their salary is typically lower than their production would warrant. You're not really getting a significant discount on his services until the 2nd half of the first round. So, even if Bijan is immediately a top 5 RB, you're paying him basically what he would get on the free agent market instead of the usual rookie contract discount. 

Not saying it will be a HUGE factor in where he gets drafted, but it would definitely serve as a tie breaker and influence the decision to pick a guy at a position with a bigger disparity between rookie contract and market value