Who are your guys this year?

[NYRaider]

23 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

James Cook- Your time is here bud. Better seize the opportunity. Hes lined up for a top 15-20 RB season. 

I'm kinda meh on Cook this year. Josh Allen has one of the lowest check down rates in the league and they were a middle of the pack team in terms targeting RBs last season. I'm not sure he has the size or physicality to take a ton of carries and I think the red zone touches will go to Damien Harris and obviously Josh Allen himself. I think there's a good chance Harris finishes above him.

[AkronsWitness]

14 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I'm kinda meh on Cook this year. Josh Allen has one of the lowest check down rates in the league and they were a middle of the pack team in terms targeting RBs last season. I'm not sure he has the size or physicality to take a ton of carries and I think the red zone touches will go to Damien Harris and obviously Josh Allen himself. I think there's a good chance Harris finishes above him.

That could be the case, I just think Cook will get the first crack at it and unless he fumbles the opportunity then he will have a good shot to finish around RB12-16

[sammymvpknight]

I understand the appeal with Cook, but I’ve never been a fan of his talent. Running QBs just don’t throw to the RB position…and Allen/Harris will likely steal 75% of the rushing TDs. 

[Sllim Pickens]

On 8/6/2023 at 7:46 AM, sammymvpknight said:

I understand the appeal with Cook, but I’ve never been a fan of his talent. Running QBs just don’t throw to the RB position…and Allen/Harris will likely steal 75% of the rushing TDs. 

I dont think Cook finishes as a top 15 RB but I think he finishes as a top 20-22 RB and is currently being drafted as RB30.  I dont think Harris steals much from him unless he starts out slow and his talent is just greater than Harris.  I get he wont be elite, but he is a very good RB2 IMO and going as late as he is, I am all over him in redrafts and best balls. I also buy low on him now in dynasty leagues if the Cook owner is low on him.  

[NYRaider]

On 8/7/2023 at 1:54 PM, Sllim Pickens said:

I dont think Cook finishes as a top 15 RB but I think he finishes as a top 20-22 RB and is currently being drafted as RB30.  I dont think Harris steals much from him unless he starts out slow and his talent is just greater than Harris.  I get he wont be elite, but he is a very good RB2 IMO and going as late as he is, I am all over him in redrafts and best balls. I also buy low on him now in dynasty leagues if the Cook owner is low on him.  

Harris is super talented and fits the bruiser mold that they've seemed to prefer recently. He was RB14 in 2021 and he was RB15 the first four weeks last season before he got banged up. The pass catching obviously isn't great but if they're really trying to keep Allen healthy by using him less as a runner, Harris should have a ton of opportunities in the red zone. 

[Rainmaker90]

From rounds 5 and on

 

RB

Rashaad Penny- He's going to eat when healthy with this great line. If he's healthy for the playoffs, you're in tremendous shape.

David Montgomery- He's going to get over 200 carries and the goal line opportunities for a good offense and great offensive line. Getting that in rounds 6-7 is a steal.

Antonio Gibson- Lot of bias towards Gibson for last year but he was RB 12 his first two years. He seems like a back Bienemey would love. No more JD McKissoc , so he'll catch a ton this year. Again,  getting him in rounds 6-8 is just a great gamble.

 

WR

Christian Watson-Physical freak who can take it to the house anytime he touches the ball. Love will throw to him deep and in the crossing routes. I expect him to be drafted in rounds 2-3 next year.

 

Dionte Johnson- Target monster with terrible TD luck. Nothing to be said here. Perfect for rounds 5-6

 

Quinton Johnson- LAC is going to throw a ton this year. It's highly unlikely Williams and or Allen goes down. It's smart to get a piece of this offense and he's one of the cheapest pieces that can show out.

 

Sky Moore- Year two In the system. Mahomes is going to get his, and it all can't go to Kelce. It's a worthy gamble.

 

TE

If I cannot get Kelce, Andrews or Pitts

 

Dalton Kincaid- He's basically a WR that's playing with Josh Allen. He will not be asked to do much blocking. 

 

QB 

If I miss out on a top 6 QB with Lawrence being my last one

 

Anthony Richardson- Running QBs have a high floor and a high ceiling. He's going to rush more than Hurts did last year which was 165 attempts. He's probably going to get a lot of rushing TDs too.

[Sllim Pickens]

7 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

From rounds 5 and on

 

RB

Rashaad Penny- He's going to eat when healthy with this great line. If he's healthy for the playoffs, you're in tremendous shape.

David Montgomery- He's going to get over 200 carries and the goal line opportunities for a good offense and great offensive line. Getting that in rounds 6-7 is a steal.

Antonio Gibson- Lot of bias towards Gibson for last year but he was RB 12 his first two years. He seems like a back Bienemey would love. No more JD McKissoc , so he'll catch a ton this year. Again,  getting him in rounds 6-8 is just a great gamble.

 

WR

Christian Watson-Physical freak who can take it to the house anytime he touches the ball. Love will throw to him deep and in the crossing routes. I expect him to be drafted in rounds 2-3 next year.

 

Dionte Johnson- Target monster with terrible TD luck. Nothing to be said here. Perfect for rounds 5-6

 

Quinton Johnson- LAC is going to throw a ton this year. It's highly unlikely Williams and or Allen goes down. It's smart to get a piece of this offense and he's one of the cheapest pieces that can show out.

 

Sky Moore- Year two In the system. Mahomes is going to get his, and it all can't go to Kelce. It's a worthy gamble.

 

TE

If I cannot get Kelce, Andrews or Pitts

 

Dalton Kincaid- He's basically a WR that's playing with Josh Allen. He will not be asked to do much blocking. 

 

QB 

If I miss out on a top 6 QB with Lawrence being my last one

 

Anthony Richardson- Running QBs have a high floor and a high ceiling. He's going to rush more than Hurts did last year which was 165 attempts. He's probably going to get a lot of rushing TDs too.

I like a lot of this list but a few I disagree with:

RB - I am not sure Montgomery gets his 200 touches.  I dont think you can easily swap Swift and Williams for Monty and Gibbs role wise.  This team spent a first round pick on Gibbs and they will use him.  Monty isn't the bruiser goal line guy that Williams was so I wouldnt be so sure he gets goal line touches or sees an equal share of the carries.  We had 480 carries last year with 30 going to Goff and 60 more to 3rd/4th string RBs.  I would see a similar split this year but I see Gibbs getting the 200-225 carries and Monty getting 125-150.  I think Monty is a decent late round grab, especially if you get Gibbs early but I wouldn't count on him week to week. 

WR - I like Rashee Rice more than Sky Moore.  Moore had a chance last year for a ton of targets and didn't take advantage. Rice has had the hype in camp and is a much safer bet IMO to take over JuJu's role in that offense.  He was on of the top rated PFF WRs in college last year and I think he will continue that in KC.  

TE - Kincaid is exciting but also rookie TEs just always scare me.  Knox is still a decent TE and will get targets.  I agree that he is a great late round flier but not someone I want as my TE1 just based on TE history.  Kyle Pitts was supposed to be the same thing but even he is taking time to acclimate to the NFL.  I think a safer later round TE is Kmet.  He started rough last year because of weather and lack of connection with Fields, but as the season went on, he became a favorite target.  I think he will be a top 7-9 TE this year so getting him late is a great value.  There are actually a lot of later TEs I really like that could blow up and move into the top category so I am sort of in the if you don't get Kelce, just wait on TE camp and take a couple lotto tickets like Kmet and Okonkwo.  

QB - The QB position is deep this year.  I love Richardson as you mentioned the running QBs have a higher floor but he still makes me nervous as a QB1.  The good news is you can grab a bunch of solid QBs later to pair with him like Goff, Jones, Russ (I think he bounces back and is a later round steal this year), Purdy, Carr, or Kyler (could be a steal for playoff run).  I have 8 QBs in my preferred group and will never spend on Mahomes, Allen or Hurts so more so 5 guys in my preferred QB range and if I dont get one of them and end up with Cousins or Tua, I am trying to grab Richardson to pair with them.  

[sammymvpknight]

On 8/7/2023 at 2:54 PM, Sllim Pickens said:

I dont think Cook finishes as a top 15 RB but I think he finishes as a top 20-22 RB and is currently being drafted as RB30.  I dont think Harris steals much from him unless he starts out slow and his talent is just greater than Harris.  I get he wont be elite, but he is a very good RB2 IMO and going as late as he is, I am all over him in redrafts and best balls. I also buy low on him now in dynasty leagues if the Cook owner is low on him.  

I think those are very reasonable expectations. 

The James Cook timeline:

Pre-NFL draft: “Cook looks like his brother, only without the skill or size.”

Post-NFL draft: “Dat landing spot! Cook to da moon!”

Rookie minicamp 2022: “Look at that speed and route running! Should I be drafting over Walker?”

Anything with pads 2022: “Is he an NFL RB?”

Non-padded 2023: “James Cook to the moon!”

[Sllim Pickens]

5 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I think those are very reasonable expectations. 

The James Cook timeline:

Pre-NFL draft: “Cook looks like his brother, only without the skill or size.”

Post-NFL draft: “Dat landing spot! Cook to da moon!”

Rookie minicamp 2022: “Look at that speed and route running! Should I be drafting over Walker?”

Anything with pads 2022: “Is he an NFL RB?”

Non-padded 2023: “James Cook to the moon!”

Haha, for sure.  I remember the hype but no way I would have considered him over Walker last year.  But he might outperform him this year if Walker is out too long and Charbonnet excels in his absence causing a true time share. 

I think a lot of people think when you call someone a sleeper it means you think they will be top 10 at their position but I look at it more like where are they drafted in order of their position and where do I think they end up at the end of the year in their position group.  Guys like Swift, David Montgomery, Javonte Williams, Pacheco, Pierce, Connor and Kamara are going ahead of him and I think he will finish ahead of all of them.  And there likely will be an injury or a fall off from someone ahead of him (Miles Sanders, Dobbins, Walker, Akers, Mixon etc) to move him up into the top 20.  

 

[Rainmaker90]

15 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I like a lot of this list but a few I disagree with:

RB - I am not sure Montgomery gets his 200 touches.  I dont think you can easily swap Swift and Williams for Monty and Gibbs role wise.  This team spent a first round pick on Gibbs and they will use him.  Monty isn't the bruiser goal line guy that Williams was so I wouldnt be so sure he gets goal line touches or sees an equal share of the carries.  We had 480 carries last year with 30 going to Goff and 60 more to 3rd/4th string RBs.  I would see a similar split this year but I see Gibbs getting the 200-225 carries and Monty getting 125-150.  I think Monty is a decent late round grab, especially if you get Gibbs early but I wouldn't count on him week to week. 

WR - I like Rashee Rice more than Sky Moore.  Moore had a chance last year for a ton of targets and didn't take advantage. Rice has had the hype in camp and is a much safer bet IMO to take over JuJu's role in that offense.  He was on of the top rated PFF WRs in college last year and I think he will continue that in KC.  

TE - Kincaid is exciting but also rookie TEs just always scare me.  Knox is still a decent TE and will get targets.  I agree that he is a great late round flier but not someone I want as my TE1 just based on TE history.  Kyle Pitts was supposed to be the same thing but even he is taking time to acclimate to the NFL.  I think a safer later round TE is Kmet.  He started rough last year because of weather and lack of connection with Fields, but as the season went on, he became a favorite target.  I think he will be a top 7-9 TE this year so getting him late is a great value.  There are actually a lot of later TEs I really like that could blow up and move into the top category so I am sort of in the if you don't get Kelce, just wait on TE camp and take a couple lotto tickets like Kmet and Okonkwo.  

QB - The QB position is deep this year.  I love Richardson as you mentioned the running QBs have a higher floor but he still makes me nervous as a QB1.  The good news is you can grab a bunch of solid QBs later to pair with him like Goff, Jones, Russ (I think he bounces back and is a later round steal this year), Purdy, Carr, or Kyler (could be a steal for playoff run).  I have 8 QBs in my preferred group and will never spend on Mahomes, Allen or Hurts so more so 5 guys in my preferred QB range and if I dont get one of them and end up with Cousins or Tua, I am trying to grab Richardson to pair with them.  

Williams had 262 carries last year. Idt Montgomery gets that many but 200 is a possibility. I think Gibbs will be primarily a weapon and be a receiver more. 
 

I like Rice too! Honestly , if I miss out on Moore, I probably will pick him or maybe Ross just for the opportunity. 
 

I completely forgot about Knox but I don’t think it matters. I don’t think they take Kincaid off the field. Pitts had a thousand yards his first year with Matt Ryan’s corpse. It’s not likely but it’s in the realm of possibilities if he’s second in targets. 
 

I generally don’t spend on QBs early either. This year I think there’s a spot in round 2 where the players are more 3rd rounders than 2nd, so I will take a QB. 
 

This year I want Herbert or Fields in rounds 5-6

[Sllim Pickens]

46 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Williams had 262 carries last year. Idt Montgomery gets that many but 200 is a possibility. I think Gibbs will be primarily a weapon and be a receiver more. 
 

I like Rice too! Honestly , if I miss out on Moore, I probably will pick him or maybe Ross just for the opportunity. 
 

I completely forgot about Knox but I don’t think it matters. I don’t think they take Kincaid off the field. Pitts had a thousand yards his first year with Matt Ryan’s corpse. It’s not likely but it’s in the realm of possibilities if he’s second in targets. 
 

I generally don’t spend on QBs early either. This year I think there’s a spot in round 2 where the players are more 3rd rounders than 2nd, so I will take a QB. 
 

This year I want Herbert or Fields in rounds 5-6

The Herbert/Burrows/Lawrence/Fields group are my primary targets.  Lamar Jackson is in there too but his injury history scares me some. 

As for Monty, I know Williams got a lot of touches but that was due to Swift being hurt and underperforming as a runner.  The year prior, there was a 50/50 split with both getting 150/151 again with Swift being injured.  Teams that draft RBs in the top 15 use them.  He will get the carries and catches and Monty will be the spell for him.  Again, Williams got a lot of touches in short yardage and red zone areas but Monty isnt a bug bruiser in the same mold.  I think those carries will be split unless one shows a nose for the endzone over the other.   

[SmittyBacall]

On 7/25/2023 at 4:22 AM, brownie man said:

Here are my favorite guys this year. 

Quarterbacks - I like quarterbacks with big upside. 

Sam Howell - I liked how coming out in the draft. He was my QB2 last year. I like him in the offense with Bienamy. He's a end of the draft flier that could have a Geno Smith type season. 

Justin Fields - I love Justin this year. Getting DJ Moore is going to open up that entire offense in a big way. 

Justin Herbert - Kellen Moore coming over and drafting Quentin Johnston will be huge for that offense. I think Herbert might win league MVP this season. 

Runningbacks - I like backs with RB1 upside. 

Javonte Williams - If he comes back healthy I love his outlook in that offense with Payton. 

Breece Hall - Another guy who if he can come back healthy has a great offense to play within as a clear number 1 guy. 

Rachaad White - I dont like his QB situation, but he's undisputed RB 1 right now and I like his pass catching ability. 

Damien Pierce - Another RB 1 guy. I think having a competent offense will give him more scoring opportunities. 

Devon Achane -  He might become the starter at the end of the season, but he's a late round flier that could be starting games by mis season. 

Kenneth Walker - Im taking him as a RB1. Don't let the Charbonte pick fool you. Walker is the guy. 

Roschon Johnson - Another rookie I could see become a starter by midseason. He's got talent and we don't even know for sure how much because of how he played behind. 

Wide Receivers - I'm looking for later guys with WR 1 upside 

DJ Moore - I think Justin will be the best QB he's ever played with, and I think that offense in general will score a good amount of points. I see DJ having maybe his best year. 

Elijah Moore - Another player I see having his best season. Deshaun loves his slot receivers and I think Moore as a late round sleeper is gonna ball out. 

Courtland Sutton - Sean Payton's new Mike Thomas. I'm giving Sutton a look at a trustable WR2. 

Christian Watson -  I think he becomes Jordan Love's WR1 and he could end up as a top 12 WR. 

Calvin Ridley - Another WR1 guy people are sleeping on because he hasn't played. I think he becomes the number 1 option in Jacksonville. 

Garrett Wilson - Another guy whos clear WR1. You can maybe get him round 4 and I think he could end up as a top 5 WR. 

Zay Flowers. - Late flier rookier who could be WR1 in Baltimore by the end of the year. 

Adam Thielin -  I think Bryce is going to force feed him this offseason. I dont think he'll be explosive, but I think he's going to have a very low floor. 

Chris Olave - Another guy who I think will be clear WR1 on his team. 

Tight Ends

Irv Smith Jr - Starting TE in Cinci with a top 5 QB. I like his upside as a TE2

Mike Geiske - With Bill O Brien coming back they have an actual real playcaller. I think Geiske could be a nice sleeper. 

 

 

My number 1 overall guy this year is Justin Herbert with Justin Fields number 2. I think Kellen Moore coming over and DJ Moore will open up both those offenses. 

 

This is a fantastic list. Lots of overlap on "my guys".

[The BILLievers]

Idk about other teams players but from everything I'm reading and hearing from Bills beat writers from summer and the training camp: James Cook & Dalton Kincaid. Especially with their ADP. 

James Cook is the clear lead back and it's not even close at the moment. Damien Harris hasn't had a first team rep all off season and does not have any pass catching ability. The Bills are in shot gun a ton and Cook gives them the flexibility to run the ball or dump it off in the pass game.  The Bills O is not set up for a RB that doesn't have pass catching ability. A lot of praise and expectations have been put on Cook this year by his head coach. 

Dalton Kincaid. People don't want to buy the hype for rookie TE's but he's honestly going to act more like a WR than a TE for this offense. He will be in the slot often and should see around 60% of the snap count. He has looked so fluid and great in the preseason and training camp. I'm calling it, he will be a poor mans Kelce to start his career!

Edited August 25, 2023 by The BILLievers

[holt_bruce81]

Not really “my guy” but I have no idea why Jake Ferguson is going undrafted. Especially knowing Dak’s history with the TE position. Like you could completely punt the position this year and still have an opportunity at a top 12 guy. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by holt_bruce81

[AFF]

On 8/25/2023 at 10:28 AM, holt_bruce81 said:

Not really “my guy” but I have no idea why Jake Ferguson is going undrafted. Especially knowing Dak’s history with the TE position. Like you could completely punt the position this year and still have an opportunity at a top 12 guy. 

I’m eyeing him/Kincaid/Everett if i punt the TE position in my big $$$ league next weekend.