JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Weather this week is so many games could make for alot of upsets. LJax being sick isnt ideal As for my other pool its either Texans or Packers…i was 100% on Texans before looking at weather issues and the line plummeting makes me think there’s something to it. GB is hot but NYG coming off a bye isnt ideal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 On 12/3/2023 at 4:54 PM, JaguarCrazy2832 said: So @Hunter2_1 @Superduperman @Malfatron or anyone else for that matter, any suggestions for Week 14? Obviously the decision is mine so dont feel like you'll influence me and cost me $ Pool 1($3 buy-in, $1000 pool, only 13 remaining assuming Rams, Jaguars and Buccaneers win) I won with LAC this week WASH DALL SF KC MIA BUFF SEA BALT CLEV PITT DET TENN LAC Pool 2($10 buy-in, $343,900 prize pool, 758 remaining after the 1PM games, I already won with Dolphins this week WASH NOR BUFF MINN DET LAR SEA LAC CLEV PITT DALL KC MIA Cincy for pool 1 Balt for pool 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagles23 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 How confident are we in the Ravens or Packers? Down to 7 in an ~ $8k pool. I was going GB until I realized Watson won't play. NYG seem to have some fight in em Love the spot for the Ravens. Weather and all also makes me weary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 22 minutes ago, Eagles23 said: How confident are we in the Ravens or Packers? Down to 7 in an ~ $8k pool. I was going GB until I realized Watson won't play. NYG seem to have some fight in em Love the spot for the Ravens. Weather and all also makes me weary what other options for teams to pick do you have? once you get past week 8-10 in survivor pools, you most likely have used the more clear teams. Also you have more data to go on for making decisions. 1 thing I have used over the years that has served me well in survivor pools/confidence pick pools is team passer rating differential. Using home/away splits and last 3 can help to ID some hidden values. not bulletproof, but can help break some ties 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagles23 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, squire12 said: what other options for teams to pick do you have? once you get past week 8-10 in survivor pools, you most likely have used the more clear teams. Also you have more data to go on for making decisions. 1 thing I have used over the years that has served me well in survivor pools/confidence pick pools is team passer rating differential. Using home/away splits and last 3 can help to ID some hidden values. not bulletproof, but can help break some ties Those two as well as the Texans are the best options for sure. I'm leaning towards saving the Texans for week 17 when the Titans visit them though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 22 minutes ago, squire12 said: what other options for teams to pick do you have? once you get past week 8-10 in survivor pools, you most likely have used the more clear teams. Also you have more data to go on for making decisions. 1 thing I have used over the years that has served me well in survivor pools/confidence pick pools is team passer rating differential. Using home/away splits and last 3 can help to ID some hidden values. not bulletproof, but can help break some ties Using home/away passer rating differential. Hardest part is the big influx of QB injuries skews the team passer rating on offense higher than it would be with a backup. week 8: 13-3 week 9: 12-4 week 10: 8-6 week 11: 9-5 week 12: 9-7 week 13: 8-4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Malfatron said: Cincy for pool 1 Balt for pool 2 Cincy? Man i want them to win but dunno about that. Baltimore is very likely the choice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Cincy? Man i want them to win but dunno about that. Baltimore is very likely the choice Yeah probably too risky, but my gut says a bengals blowout, but i cant prove it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 13 hours ago, Malfatron said: Yeah probably too risky, but my gut says a bengals blowout, but i cant prove it Hope youre right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 21 hours ago, squire12 said: what other options for teams to pick do you have? once you get past week 8-10 in survivor pools, you most likely have used the more clear teams. Also you have more data to go on for making decisions. 1 thing I have used over the years that has served me well in survivor pools/confidence pick pools is team passer rating differential. Using home/away splits and last 3 can help to ID some hidden values. not bulletproof, but can help break some ties 21 hours ago, squire12 said: Using home/away passer rating differential. Hardest part is the big influx of QB injuries skews the team passer rating on offense higher than it would be with a backup. week 8: 13-3 week 9: 12-4 week 10: 8-6 week 11: 9-5 week 12: 9-7 week 13: 8-4 Went back through the stats on passer rating differential and looked at the home/away splits AND the last 3 games and when those 2 values pointed to the same team, results are below week 8: 7-3 week 9: 8-1 week 10: 3-2 week 11: 6-2 week 12: 6-5 week 13: 7-3 Overall 37-16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 of the 4 people in my $3 pool picked Pittsburgh and it wasnt me *heavy breathing* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 Of the 4 people left: 2 Pittsburgh(eliminated) 1 Houston 1 Green Bay I am the Packer pick, i was picking Houston all week but got scared off by the weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Of the 4 people left: 2 Pittsburgh(eliminated) 1 Houston 1 Green Bay I am the Packer pick, i was picking Houston all week but got scared off by the weather. Hey, i told you how to get an auto advance by picking cincy Edited December 10, 2023 by Malfatron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Malfatron said: Hey, i told you how to get an auto advance by picking cincy you're not wrong...but I already wanted Cincy to win for my AFC South division futures, didnt wanna double dip on the back of a backup QB It was always Texans or Packers for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 Texans lose!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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