CJ95 Contract Situation

[onejayhawk]

Once the season starts, Chris Jones will start losing game checks at over $1.6 Million/game. That's a lot of cabbage.

[EMAW_KSU]

19 hours ago, Chiefs_5627 said:

 

 

This is kind of what I’ve been saying.  I certainly don’t want to lose CJ, and I’d surprising how quickly tide has turned on him. Especially considering his post contract was extremely team friendly in structure.  Just hoping time spot is short now.

[onejayhawk]

4 hours ago, EMAW_KSU said:

This is kind of what I’ve been saying.  I certainly don’t want to lose CJ, and I’d surprising how quickly tide has turned on him. Especially considering his post contract was extremely team friendly in structure.  Just hoping time spot is short now.

I am not at all surprised at how fast opinion turned against him. A veteran holding out to avoid preseason heat and injury chances is one thing. Holding out when the games count is something very different. 

The worst thing IMO is that Jones got his Hall of Fame chances back in line last year, but he still needs another big season to seal the deal.

[kingseanjohn]

Using PFR, I got bored and decided to check into what some of the best DTs in recent NFL history have done after the age of 30 since Jones will turn 30 in 2024. Here's what I found. Stats are averaged to a per game basis to help account for various season lengths with only regularly season games included.

 

PLAYER --------------------- AVG PRE-30 --------------------- AVG 30+

Haloti Ngata: 3.37 tackles, 0.19 sacks, 0.39 TFL, 0.58 QBHits ----- 1.79 tackles, 0.16 sacks, 0.25 TFL, 0.35 QBHits

Richard Seymour: 3.23 tackles, 0.35 sacks, 0.58 TFL, xxx QBHits -----2.62 tackles, 0.16 sacks, 0.51 TFL, xxx QBHits

Aaron Donald: 3.25 tackles, 0.78 sacks, 1.19 TFL, 1.83 QBHits ----- 4.75 tackles, 0.63 sacks, 1.04 TFL, 1.29 QBHits

Geno Atkins: 2.40 tackles, 0.50 sacks, 0.69 TFL, 1.17 QBHits ----- 2.32 tackles, 0.36 sacks, 0.43 TFL, 0.75 QBHits

Ndamukong Suh: 3.37 tackles, 0.43 sacks, 0.85 TFL, 1.23 QBHits ----- 2.57 tackles, 0.28 sacks, 0.40 TFL, 0.89 QBHits

Fletcher Cox: 2.94 tackles, 0.38 sacks, 0.50 TFL, 0.97 QBHits ----- 2.48 tackles, 0.35 sacks, 0.48 TFL, 0.73 QBHits

Cam Heyward: 2.66 tackles, 0.38 sacks, 0.58 TFL, 0.80 QBHits ----- 4.62 tackles, 0.52 sacks, 0.72 TFL, 1.26 QBHits

Chris Jones: 2.27 tackles, 0.61 sacks, 0.61 TFL, 1.36 QBHits

 

While I did not double check all of my numbers, Heyward's stats per game did in fact go up that much after hitting age 30. Early in his career he was listed at DE and then moved to DT at age 29. This also coincides with the time frame of TJ Watt's arrival. I'd be interested to hear a Steelers fan's take on that, but I also don't care enough to ask around.

Jones' tackles per game is clearly lower than the rest. His TFL is decent enough but still lower than I expected. His sacks and QBHits only trail Donald and both are clearly above the rest. Seeing that sacks and QBHits are what set him apart from the rest, I looked to see what happens on average after age 30 - excluding the anomaly that's Heyward...

What I calculated is that sacks among this group went down 27% and QBHits went down 32%. Based on Jones' 2022 season that would give him 11 sacks and 20 QBHits. While that's good, is it really 30mil per year good? Granted, he won't be 30 next year so this technically wouldn't apply for another year, if it even applies at all. I will say this does make me more hesitant to want a long term deal with Jones. For the team, I think best case would be for him to play out this year and then tag and trade him prior to next years draft. Unfortunately, he's at the age where paying him 30mil/year just doesn't make sense to me anymore. If he was 25 I would be all for it. I won't fault Veach if an extension is done though -- barring numbers that makes it impossible to keep younger stars.

[EMAW_KSU]

I’ll say this, Jones has had chunks of his career where the guys around him weren’t awesome. See the entire time we overpaid greatly for Clark.  It’d be truly glorious to see our end pull some guys away from him and watch havoc ensue.

[Jakuvious]

10 hours ago, EMAW_KSU said:

This is kind of what I’ve been saying.  I certainly don’t want to lose CJ, and I’d surprising how quickly tide has turned on him. Especially considering his post contract was extremely team friendly in structure.  Just hoping time spot is short now.

Wouldn't really say his last one was team friendly. It wasn't not team friendly either, but was really pretty much just standard. 2nd highest DT contract at the time, 2nd most guaranteed money.

I'm not too surprised by the turn, though. In the end, I think the vast majority of the fans like the players more than the owners. But at a certain point, it switches from the player versus the owner, to the player versus the team. And while we all love the players, at the end of the day, we're fans of the team. Now that the games are real, it feels less like Jones versus Hunt, and more like Jones versus the Chiefs. Because now that's who he's going to be impacting.

I do also think the team has managed the optics of this pretty well, honestly. Haven't seen much reporting that they're not offering him enough, have seen plenty of rumors that he's asking for Donald money.

[Jakuvious]

4 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

What I calculated is that sacks among this group went down 27% and QBHits went down 32%. Based on Jones' 2022 season that would give him 11 sacks and 20 QBHits. While that's good, is it really 30mil per year good? Granted, he won't be 30 next year so this technically wouldn't apply for another year, if it even applies at all. I will say this does make me more hesitant to want a long term deal with Jones. For the team, I think best case would be for him to play out this year and then tag and trade him prior to next years draft. Unfortunately, he's at the age where paying him 30mil/year just doesn't make sense to me anymore. If he was 25 I would be all for it. I won't fault Veach if an extension is done though -- barring numbers that makes it impossible to keep younger stars.

The other problem here, and this may be an issue in the negotiation as well, is that Jones's 2022 season was not his typical season. He had either the best or second best year of his career in basically any stat or metric that you can find. So if we're projecting a hypothetical decline, it might not even be from what he did last year. Because what he did from 2019 to 2021, while still great, was not as great as last year. I know one of the PFF guys has mentioned this a few times on Twitter as well, that part of the issue may be Jones wanting paid as the player he was last year (which was almost Donald level) while KC wants to pay him for who he's been over the last several years (which is more in line with the other DTs that just got paid.)

The age is definitely relevant, though. There are definite trends from Veach on that. We draft very young, particularly with the higher picks. Rashee Rice was a slight divergence there. And we've extended almost nobody into their 30s on long deals with guaranteed money. It's basically Thuney and Kelce, and that's it. Clark's out was just before he turned 30. MVS's out is just before he turns 30. Hill, obviously. Kind of the opposite of Dorsey, where everyone got one more contract than they probably should've.

[EMAW_KSU]

8 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Wouldn't really say his last one was team friendly. It wasn't not team friendly either, but was really pretty much just standard. 2nd highest DT contract at the time, 2nd most guaranteed money.

There’s more to a contract than dollars.  He took a back loaded contact during COVID when teams were strapped. He did get paid well, not arguing that.  But he also gave the team freedom by his structure.

[RedGold]

I will start out by saying I think Jones is a beast and want him back.

I will also say I think there's only 2 seasons in his career where he wasn't overrated by the fanbase just a tad,   and those were the 2 years he wanted to get paid.    He's always been able to collapse the pocket,  but those 2 years... he really dialed in to shut down the offense in full.     So yeah,  he's a beast..   but I'm not at all worried that our FO is hesitant to give him what he wants going into the back end of his career.

 

[mayanfootball]

14 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

 For the team, I think best case would be for him to play out this year and then tag and trade him prior to next years draft. Unfortunately, he's at the age where paying him 30mil/year just doesn't make sense to me anymore.

Exactly !!

You won't see Patrick Mahomes hobble this team like the SELFISH C.J. seems to want to do.

Edited September 1, 2023 by mayanfootball

[Chiefs_5627]

Fwiw: 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-nfl-insider-notes-chiefs-holding-firm-chris-jones-offer-aaron-rodgers-jets-may-done-wheeling-dealing

So where do the Chris Jones contract negotiations presently stand? People I’ve spoken with believe the deal will get done soon and the two sides are not far apart. That being the case, I’m also told the Kansas City Chiefs are standing firm in their most recent offer and may not be willing to budge anymore. 

There has been a lot of criticism within the football and agent community thrown towards Jones and his negotiation team for the way they’ve handled the situation. 

While they want Aaron Donald money, to a person everyone says Jones is not Aaron Donald. NFL agents I’ve spoken to tell me the contract the Chiefs have offered Jones is more than fair. 

Among other criticisms, there’s a feeling Jones is being selfish in these negotiations, an opinion that’s sure to draw pushback from many. The Chiefs have several important players whose contracts must be renewed in the near future. If Jones gobbles up too much salary cap space and the Chiefs can’t sign the other stars, the dynasty in Kansas City may be in jeopardy.

[kingseanjohn]

Another thought, is it possible that Jones' holdout is intentional with the Chiefs? Without him getting an extension, we're over the cap. But since he hasn't reported yet, he doesn't count against the cap. Makes me wonder.

[mayanfootball]

Lock him out, I say. If he doesn't like playing in KC (are you kidding me man? You've got it made in the shade as far as places to choose from!!)

Go earn your d^^^ $ elsewhere. You ungrateful #### !!

[Chiefs_5627]

1 hour ago, kingseanjohn said:

Another thought, is it possible that Jones' holdout is intentional with the Chiefs? Without him getting an extension, we're over the cap. But since he hasn't reported yet, he doesn't count against the cap. Makes me wonder.

I see what you're saying but if wind of that got out, we might as well hand Goodell some high draft picks. Seems awfully risky.

[mayanfootball]

2 hours ago, Chiefs_5627 said:

I see what you're saying but if wind of that got out, we might as well hand Goodell some high draft picks. Seems awfully risky.

I'm sure there's been a good faith effort to sign Chris. The fact that there's "talk" about sizeable money makes me believe this.