2024 Draft

[JIllg]

42 minutes ago, JIllg said:

If he’s there, they are running it in lol

I’m not sure the consensus isn’t overthinking it on Chop, either. He legit has Parson level freakiness with longer arms. Like, he might not need much more polish to be immensely effective. Can’t remember a guy so gifted and productive to the eye test that was thought of this low. But the fail case is he isn’t quite freaky enough and can’t figure out how to get hands off him, I guess.

[J-ALL-DAY]

5 hours ago, Forge said:

The pick will be Chop. I feel it in my bones 

Could have just listened to me two months ago lol. 

I don't know if a smart team like the Lions or Ravens pass up on him though. 

[Chrissooner49er]

14 hours ago, JIllg said:

Yeah, that's not a bad profile at all. Did not think that he was 240+ on tape. He's prolly added some good weight.

And he's the son of Luther Elliss, long-time Lion drafted in the first round back in 95. Yet another legacy prospect. 

This draft is SOOOOOO cool. 

[Forge]

Dude is like heroin for NFL GMs 

[JIllg]

26 minutes ago, Forge said:

Dude is like heroin for NFL GMs 

I'm telling you, if you are specially trying to find yourself a Purdy, you are going to value him as a Purdy. It will be fascinating to see which guy Adam Peters ends up with (given that he also has to appease a ton of management and the coaching staff).

[AustrianNiner]

😬

[adamq]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Dude is like heroin for NFL GMs 

Oh man they LOVE that kind of stuff. He might actually be a top 5 pick.. I honestly think he has a shot to be an above average NFL QB, but he seems to be a very polarizing prospect.

 

Daniel Jeremiah's first mock on nfl.com, Jan 19th didn't have JJ in the first round. By his second mock on Feb 20th, JJ was in the top 10. So that's info being fed to him by teams and could be legit

Edited April 10 by adamq

[StevenK]

1 hour ago, JIllg said:

I'm telling you, if you are specially trying to find yourself a Purdy, you are going to value him as a Purdy. It will be fascinating to see which guy Adam Peters ends up with (given that he also has to appease a ton of management and the coaching staff).

While I agree, the luxury behind Purdy was the fact you didn’t have to use a first round pick. GMs will start to reach for players with this type of mentality/traits because they will “think” they can’t find these type of players later in the draft ala Purdy. 

I still think McCarthy will be taken early for these traits. 

Edited April 10 by StevenK

[WhyAmIHere]

10 hours ago, Forge said:

The pick will be Chop. I feel it in my bones 

I'd be pretty sad about Chop tbh.  Too one dimensional.  Might be ok on third downs if he gets some moves. 

I would understand it logistically, but it would feel desperate imo. 

Edited April 10 by WhyAmIHere

[JIllg]

12 minutes ago, WhyAmIHere said:

I'd be pretty sad about Chop tbh.  Too one dimensional.  Might be ok on third downs if he gets some moves. 

With Chop, you have to be darn sure that his lack of TFLs and sacks given his pass rush and run block win rate is because of physical and technique problems rather than a sample size fluke. Essentially, if you don't like him, it is because you think he is a reverse Leonard Floyd, where the win rate oversells impact rather than (possibly) vice versa.

And every math guy in the world will tell you that you shouldn't trust your eyes thaaat much when win rates and havoc rates and such are very, very predictive. Especially when pared with supernatural athleticism. So most data folks are very high on Chop. 

I feel like finding ways that that Chop won't translate has been a de jour sign of scouting intelligence and maybe it is. His get off steps are too short and he needs more moves. But he is so low to the ground and bendy and has long enough arms and is so ludicrously quick that he wins all the time nevertheless. 

Maybe he just annihilates bad tackles. This is true. But the same is also dead true for Laiatu Latu. Maybe he doesn't win often enough through contact. I definitely think Turner is like that. I just think Chop is getting a weirdly different standard applied to him based on a suddenly agreed upon consensus. 

[WhyAmIHere]

31 minutes ago, JIllg said:

With Chop, you have to be darn sure that his lack of TFLs and sacks given his pass rush and run block win rate is because of physical and technique problems rather than a sample size fluke. Essentially, if you don't like him, it is because you think he is a reverse Leonard Floyd, where the win rate oversells impact rather than (possibly) vice versa.

And every math guy in the world will tell you that you shouldn't trust your eyes thaaat much when win rates and havoc rates and such are very, very predictive. Especially when pared with supernatural athleticism. So most data folks are very high on Chop. 

I feel like finding ways that that Chop won't translate has been a de jour sign of scouting intelligence and maybe it is. His get off steps are too short and he needs more moves. But he is so low to the ground and bendy and has long enough arms and is so ludicrously quick that he wins all the time nevertheless. 

Maybe he just annihilates bad tackles. This is true. But the same is also dead true for Laiatu Latu. Maybe he doesn't win often enough through contact. I definitely think Turner is like that. I just think Chop is getting a weirdly different standard applied to him based on a suddenly agreed upon consensus. 

I just expected a lot more from his film tbh, but I'm no expert at this stuff.  With Chop I think his athleticism would be much more intriguing if he used it in terms of being versatile, like showing fluidity in coverage or moving all around the front 7 and blowing up plays from different spots, or using sudden changes of direction on defenders.  But all I saw him do was line up outside and do the same thing over and over and over and over, in a straight line.  It's just so uninspiring, and there were no counters to anything he did, once he got stifled he was done.  I feel like NFL teams will scout this stuff up so quickly and then you'll have to bank on him being smart/instinctive enough to learn and implement counters...what an uphill battle in a league like this. In the run game I saw him get moved around and dominated. 

Of course, none of us has a crystal ball, but to me Chop is the ULTIMATE boom or bust pick.  I just don't think the Niners can take a big risk right now when teams like GB and Detroit will be getting guys like DeJean, JPJ, or Darius Robinson.  IMO, they should pick a guy who they think has a low probability of busting even if it means reaching a bit for need (Frazier, Rakestraw, McConkey..etc).   I'm warming up to Frazier personally.  Get Brock a guy under center he can develop chemistry with for the next 10 years...I want a wrestler in the trenches, that sounds good to me. 

Edited April 10 by WhyAmIHere

[Forge]

1 hour ago, AustrianNiner said:

😬

Class clown is not the least bit surprising if you've listened to him. Very amusing dude

[JIllg]

18 minutes ago, WhyAmIHere said:

I just expected a lot more from his film tbh, but I'm no expert at this stuff.  With Chop I think his athleticism would be much more intriguing if he used it in terms of being versatile, like showing fluidity in coverage or moving all around the front 7 and blowing up plays from different spots, or using sudden changes of direction on defenders.  But all I saw him do was line up outside and do the same thing over and over and over and over, in a straight line.  It's just so uninspiring, and there were no counters to anything he did, once he got stifled he was done.  I feel like NFL teams will scout this stuff up so quickly and then you'll have to bank on him being smart/instinctive enough to learn and implement counters...what an uphill battle in a league like this. In the run game I saw him get moved around and dominated. 

Of course, none of us has a crystal ball, but to me Chop is the ULTIMATE boom or bust pick.  I just don't think the Niners can take a big risk right now when teams like GB and Detroit will be getting guys like DeJean, JPJ, or Darius Robinson.  IMO, they should pick a guy who they think has a low probability of busting even if it means reaching a bit for need (Frazier, Rakestraw, McConkey..etc).   I'm warming up to Frazier personally.  Get Brock a guy under center he can develop chemistry with for the next 10 years...I want a wrestler in the trenches, that sounds good to me. 

All fair. Straight up when Chop isn't shooting gaps in the running game to annhilate a play or outspeeding+dipping to the edge, he's got nothing. It is not the most fun thing. Just had to say my piece on Chop, lol. I've had a devil's advocate voice in my head over the past couple of days that I had to give voice to.

I've been warming up to Frazier myself. Has some really pretty plays in the run game on the move. Is stronger and better reanchors against power than his main competitor at center (which for me is currently Graham Barton). 

I could also see Lagette in the first round if we are talking about guys that haven't been talked about to the 9ers often. The team has a lot of uncertainty over the next couple of years at wide receiver and Lagette does a lot of the things that we love. He's physical and blocks folks with gusto and is a tremendous run after the catch player and can threaten vertically on overs and posts. His skillset Venn diagram overlaps all of Aiyuk and Jennings and Deebo. And while he isn't quite as good at each of their specialties, the usefulness in a number of different roles is a nice plus for me. And he has had a lot of turmoil to explain the late breakout.

[Forge]

 

[Forge]

🤔