BDL 2023 Week 1 - Lancaster Werewolves @ Cuba Smugglers

[RedGold]

BDL 2023 Week 1

Match:  Lancaster Werewolves @ Cuba Smugglers

 Away Owner:  @rackcs

Home Owner:   @MD4L

 Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[RedGold]

Lancaster

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: David Montgomery
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
WR: DeVante Parker
TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo
LT: Braxton Jones
LG: Sam Cosmi
C : Mitch Morse
RG: Robert Hunt
RT: Jawaan Taylor

QB: Trevor Lawrence
RB: Tyler Allgeier
WR: Tyler Boyd
WR: Skyy Moore
WR: Cedric Tillman
TE: Greg Dulcich
OL: Trevor Penning
OL: Steve Avila

 

LE: T.J. Watt
DT: Kenny Clark
DT: Justin Madubuike
RE: Calais Campbell
LB: Fred Warner
LB: Willie Gay Jr.
CB: Jaire Alexander
CB: Tyrique Stevenson
CB: J.C. Jackson
FS: Minkah Fitzpatrick
SS: Darrick Forrest
 

EDGE: Preston Smith
EDGE: Ogbo Okoronkwo
INT: Tedarrell Slaton
LB: Eric Kendricks
LB: Akeem Davis-Gaither
CB: Dane Jackson
CB: Akayleb Evans
S: Brandon Jones

 

 

 

Cuba Smugglers

QB: Deshaun Watson
RB: Travis Etienne
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Calvin Ridley
WR: Rondale Moore
TE: Dawson Knox 
LT: Charles Cross
LG: Elgton Jenkins
😄 Jason Kelce
RG: Wyatt Teller
RT: Jonah Williams

RB: Samaje Perine
RB: Jamaal Williams
WR: Zay Flowers
WR: Marvin Mims
WR: Puka Nacua
TE: Jelani Woods
OL: Mekhi Becton
OL: Darnell Wright

Edge: Rashan Gary 
DT: Dre’Mont Jones
DT: David Onyemata 
Edge: Bradley Chubb
WLB: Leighton Vander Esch
MLB: Bobby Okereke
RCB: Xavien Howard
FS: Chauncey Gardner Johnson
SS: Derwin James
NCB: Alontae Taylor
LCB: Denzel Ward

Edge: Rashad Weaver
Edge: Lukas Van Ness
INT: Zach Sieler
INT: Derrick Nnadi
SLB: Channing Tindall
RCB: Martin Emerson
NCB: Kader Kohou
S: Vonn Bell

Edited September 10, 2023 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Lancaster Offense:

We start this new season with a familiar divisional opponent in Cuba. We want to start out with a methodical approach with lots of runs and quick passing concepts. We will use plenty of RPO as well as this is something that Hurts excels at. We want to use both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs about evenly, with Allgeier coming ocassionally to spell them. Our goal is to get the offense in rhythm and keep the ball moving quickly to negate the opposing pass rush. As the game progresses we will move to a quicker tempo and work in some targets to the intermediate and deep parts of the field. 

 

We will feature our 2 RB look in this game with Montgomery and Gibbs in the backfield together with Hurts. With these three out there at the same time, Cuba has to respect the possibility that any of the three could run the ball on any play. Expect more RPO action from this look. This also allows us to again attack the Cuba linebackers in the passing game. In these formations it gives us a lot of unpredictability in how we operate. We can show the same look but utilize many different concepts with our players. This gives us flexibility in using either of our running backs in the run game, as passing weapons, or as blockers. In these sets one running back will often be left in to block. We aren’t as worried about inside pressure but want extra help again Rashan Gary as he is eased back from his injury. We want to feature Gibbs as a receiver in this game out of the backfield and by motioning him into the slot throughout the game. Ultimately we hope to give him 15 or so touches in this game to allow him to use his explosive ability. Gibbs' speed, and having Montgomery (and even Allgeier) to take some of the brunt off of him, will keep him fresh for the big plays in space he will have the opportunity for.

 

We also want to target the Cuba linebackers in the passing game as we think some of our athletic tight ends and running backs can have success against the players they’ll have covering them. We will be using Chigoziem Okonkwo as a short and intermediate area threat with his YAC ability. We will hit him with a couple of screens early specifically. Greg Dulcich will get some work as well where we want to use him to attack the seam. We plan to have him spell Okonkwo and also come out for some 12 personnel looks with one of the RBs taking a break.

 

Finally, in terms of our wide receivers, we feel good about our matchups in this game against the Cuba secondary. Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Boyd are productive, experienced receivers who can win in a variety of ways. We do want to take some deep shots later in the game, but we mainly want to focus on short and intermediate passes. This will help us neutralize the pass rush by helping us get the ball out quicker. It also helps us keep the ball in our hands longer and allows us to eat the clock, which plays to our overall advantage. We mainly plan to work in 21 and 12 personnel looks but when we go to 3 WR looks, Boyd will shift to the slot.

Lancaster Defense:

On defense this week our main goal will be to attempt to shut down Justin Jefferson and force Deshaun Watson to beat us. We will have bracket coverage on Jefferson at all times. We will be creative with the ways we apply pressure to the Cuba offense to keep Watson rattled. We believe that if we force Watson into uncomfortable situations, our defense can make plays and lead us to victory.

 

The focus in stopping the passing game is on Jefferson so he will be shadowed by Jaire Alexander with Darrick Forrest providing bracket coverage over the top. Jefferson will likely still make some plays but by putting a top corner on him and providing help over the top, we think we can limit his overall effectiveness and force Watson to look to his other receiving options. For the other corner coverage assignments, Tyrique Stevenson will be covering Calvin Ridley and J.C. Jackson will cover the Smugglers’ 3rd wide receiver, whether it is Zay Flowers, Tyquan Thornton, or another player. 

 

Fred Warner will be keyed in on Travis Etienne this week, helping take him down if he runs, covering him if he comes out as a receiver, and blitzing if he stays in to block. Willie Gay will cover Dawson Knox out of the backfield. If they take a receiver off of the field, Stevenson will leave and Akeem Davis-Gaither will come out in his place and be assigned the new player. Minkah Fitzpatrick will play a centerfielder role mainly, patrolling the deep parts of the field where Watson likes to operate. He will be given a bit of freedom in his role to come down if he needs to, we just want him to use his instincts and make plays on the ball. We think this opens up the opportunity for a Watson mistake when he has to force something. 

 

We want to also hit Deshaun Watson a lot this game. We will occasionally be bringing blitzes from one of our linebackers with Fitzpatrick picking up the blitzers responsibility. We also anticipate success up front with TJ Watt lined up across from Elgton Jenkins. We will rotate Calais Campbell inside occasionally throughout the game, especially on obvious passing downs with Justin Madubuike coming out and Preston Smith or Ogbo Okoronkwo coming to create pressure. The lineup of Smith, Campbell, Clark, and Watt should be able to create some real havoc against the Cuba offensive line. We will mix in some stunts and twists to keep the pressure coming from different angles and altogether hopefully just keeping Watson rattled.

 

 

 

 

 

Cuba

Intro

It’s a new season and we get the opportunity to push for our goals. Week 1 is against a stout Lancaster team. We’re ready for the challenge.

 

Offense

We have our starting QB back with Deshaun Watson at the helm. He will have established weapons capable of making significant impact with the ball in their hands. In the early going we want to emphasize the running game with Travis Etienne. Jason Kelce and Wyatt Teller improve the interior of our line so using them together to wear down Kenny Clark is a staple of our ground attack. We’ll also let Etienne get to the edge on a couple toss plays to use his impact speed up the sideline. The early goal is making Lancaster respect an early commitment to the run game and even giving Watson opportunities to use his legs on some RPOs. Lancaster’s pass rush isn’t as powerful (for week 1 at least) without Bosa so we can allocate resources to slowing TJ Watt down by keeping a commitment to the running game. 

Of course, we intend to pass the ball as our bread and butter is based on the receivers. Justin Jefferson will likely see a plentiful of Jaire Alexander and we’ll counteract that matchup by throwing him into the slot on a 3rd of our snaps. With Ridley into the fold, Watson will work quickly to incorporate him into a credible target share. We want Ridley getting involved early with some slants and in breaking routes. His touches will mostly be within the intermediate level as Lancaster lacks a secondary CB at the level of Jalen Ramsey. Rondale Moore will be the 3rd receiver and he’ll be targeted on some screens. When we move Jefferson outside, we have some intended plays to stack him with Jefferson and get him going on a couple deep shots. Watson won’t target him every time but we want to test that wrinkle in the case of Jefferson avoiding shadow responsibility from Alexander. 

Should Jefferson avoid shadow responsibility, he will still likely command additional help, whether safeties are playing deep to his side on a cover 3 or LBs being attentive of him running underneath. If he avoids Alexander, we’ll operate with him as the primary option for our offense. Slants, outs, comebacks all on isolated sets to give him one on one opportunities against Lancaster’s secondary. Zay Flowers, Marvin Mims, and Puka Nacua will rotate into the 3rd spot. Flowers in particular will be given snaps replacing Moore and be more of a vertical threat in the slot. Nacua will be the beneficiary of Jefferson slot duties as we want another big body on the outside. Flowers won’t play a full set of snaps but will be active within the target share as we want stack him with Ridley and give Lancaster different looks. Marvin Mims is the home run hitter on snaps Ridley or Jefferson need a breather. 

Lastly, Dawson Knox is the intermediate weapon we have not had for a long time. We’ll throw some 6 OL looks in the first half to keep the running game going but Knox biggest responsibility is helping in the pass game on the underneath by gaining the attention of Warner.

The offensive line has been completely revamped and we’ll let Charles Cross isolate in pass protection provided he’s not lining up against TJ Watt. We will help chip TJ Watt for Jonah Williams while Kelce communicates line responsibilities for the guards.

 

Defense

We expect Jalen Hurts to start, but we get Lancaster at a good time considering the state of their WR corp. As a result, Hurts is the focal point for our defense. We’re committing to more of a man friendly defense with Derwin James serving as a roamer and Hurts spy. We do not intend to shadow in the early going, so our CBs will play sides. Lancaster will likely implement a run heavy offense to control the TOP. This may be Jahmyr Gibbs first game, but we’re going to treat him as the impact player player to stop. We will treat Gibbs as a receiver when he motions out to the slot, meaning he’ll get Alontae Taylor on our base 6 man front. Bobby Okereke will be rotated out on passing downs for Vonn Bell while James moves closer to the LOS. We like the idea of keeping 6 man fronts but subbing Taylor for Derwin James in the slot while Bell moves to safety. We expect a fair share of 2 RB sets and will play them with a 6 man front as Montgomery/Gibbs/Allegeier serving as a blocker is a viable win for our defense.

In the trenches, we added David Onyemata for his 3 down ability but have a steady rotation to handle the run heavy offense Lancaster projects to utilize. Onyemata and Sieler will play most of the early down snaps in order to handle the battle of the trenches. Dre’Mont Jones will handle a heavy amount of snaps for his pass rush ability. Lukas Van Ness will sub in as an edge rusher on a handful of snaps but we’ll also throw him inside for our nascar package. The Tackles for Lancaster can be beaten in pass rush so Rashan Gary and Bradley Chubb will have the opportunity to keep Hurts ok the run. We have some concern about RPO looks so using Derwin James or Vonn Bell as roll over LBs on the edge will give extra support to Hurts doing damage as a runner. 

We will avoid shadow responsibility as mentioned previously but we have a set look for the handful of times we’ll do so. Ward will move into the slot and matchup with Tyler Boyd, Pittman will face Xavien Howard, and the slot will cover Gibbs or the RB in 2 WR sets.

In the 2nd half, as we adjust to Lancaster’s likely run heavy approach, we’ll throw some sets with Derwin James moving to the 2nd level and Von Bell serving as the strong safety. This will give us additional flexibility against the run. We will have extra help in run support and Derwin James to serve as a possible cover man against Gibbs. We’ll throw Bell closer to the line of scrimmage and give an invaried 8 man front with help in the back end to combat a pass friendly approach. Additionally, matching the speed of Jalen Hurts will require having faster players on the field so we can handle the rushing element without completely compromising against Hurts dynamic ability to make vertical reads.

Edited September 10, 2023 by RedGold

[rackcs]

Messed up my lineup week 1, go me. Devante Parker is out, Tyler Boyd was supposed to be in the starting lineup.

[LAOJoe]

On 9/10/2023 at 4:01 PM, rackcs said:

Messed up my lineup week 1, go me. Devante Parker is out, Tyler Boyd was supposed to be in the starting lineup.

He's next in line so he was who I would have assumed was starting regardless of what you said.

 

Advantage Lancaster because Jawaan Taylor gets away with false starts and lining up in the backfield.

[Scoundrel]

On 9/10/2023 at 9:36 AM, RedGold said:

We also anticipate success up front with TJ Watt lined up across from Elgton Jenkins

@rackcs was this an assumption that Elgton would be at RT or were you specially looking for Watt to match up against Elgton wherever he was on the line? 

[SirA1]

This is the closest game of the week for me. Hurts needs a few more weapons to compete against the Cuba juggernaut.

Both defenses are stacked. I am going to give the edge to the home team in this one.

Cuba 24 - Lancaster 21

[rackcs]

6 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

@rackcs was this an assumption that Elgton would be at RT or were you specially looking for Watt to match up against Elgton wherever he was on the line? 

I was assuming he would start at RT. Just swap out Elgton Jenkins with Jonah Williams there, we still anticipate a favorable matchup for Watt against him.

[TedLavie]

Lancaster O vs Cuba D

I understand rackcs had little to no choice in this one, but I really don't like base 2 RB lineups. It's seldom use for a reason, and the idea of Gibbs run blocking for Montgommery isn't one I'm fond of. I like Cuba quality upfront as well. I like their starting 4 as well as their depth. I do like the matchups Lancaster has outside. Pittman vs Howard matchups are extremely favorable to Pittman imho. But that's a limited part of their plan unfortunately.

Cuba O vs Lancaster D

Such a loaded matchup. Given what we saw of Flowers and Nacua this week, Cuba receiving corps looks really impressive. But Lancaster D is stacked with studs all over the field. I do think this a balanced strength on strength matchup. I do think TJ Watt destroys Jonah Williams (who shouldn't be anywhere close to starting a BDL game imho) even with Knox chipping him. But the rest of the OL holds its own and Etienne can get decent yardage. I do like Rondale Moore as well here and Cuba will be able to get him and Ridley the ball with Jefferson bracketed.

 

Cuba 20-10

[rackcs]

32 minutes ago, TedLavie said:

Lancaster O vs Cuba D

I understand rackcs had little to no choice in this one, but I really don't like base 2 RB lineups. It's seldom use for a reason, and the idea of Gibbs run blocking for Montgommery isn't one I'm fond of. I like Cuba quality upfront as well. I like their starting 4 as well as their depth. I do like the matchups Lancaster has outside. Pittman vs Howard matchups are extremely favorable to Pittman imho. But that's a limited part of their plan unfortunately.

Cuba O vs Lancaster D

Such a loaded matchup. Given what we saw of Flowers and Nacua this week, Cuba receiving corps looks really impressive. But Lancaster D is stacked with studs all over the field. I do think this a balanced strength on strength matchup. I do think TJ Watt destroys Jonah Williams (who shouldn't be anywhere close to starting a BDL game imho) even with Knox chipping him. But the rest of the OL holds its own and Etienne can get decent yardage. I do like Rondale Moore as well here and Cuba will be able to get him and Ridley the ball with Jefferson bracketed.

 

Cuba 20-10

Fair points. Just want to clear up that the idea isn't to have Gibbs be a lead blocker for Montgomery. The 2 RB sets is to have misdirection and the threat of a run from Gibbs, Montgomery, or Hurts to throw off the defense. Lots of RPO and read-option looks to make things harder on the defense.

[TedLavie]

2 minutes ago, rackcs said:

Fair points. Just want to clear up that the idea isn't to have Gibbs be a lead blocker for Montgomery. The 2 RB sets is to have misdirection and the threat of a run from Gibbs, Montgomery, or Hurts to throw off the defense. Lots of RPO and read-option looks to make things harder on the defense.

Oh I got a bit confused when you talked about you RBs blocking. Wasn't sure if it was only pass blocking.

[rackcs]

Just now, TedLavie said:

Oh I got a bit confused when you talked about you RBs blocking. Wasn't sure if it was only pass blocking.

Yeah, first gameplan of the year, I'm a little rusty. I'll try to be more clear about things going forward.

[LAOJoe]

2 hours ago, TedLavie said:

Jonah Williams (who shouldn't be anywhere close to starting a BDL game imho)

IRL this week with the BS he got away with made this negative a positive for me for now. lol

[Whicker]

If 4 wide won’t work in this league, neither will 2 RB which is objectively worse 

[Blue]

With a lot of matchups becoming one-sided due to all sorts of reasons, this is the game of the week for me. Especially since these teams went to overtime to decide a playoff spot in the final week of the 2022 season.

Lancaster's quadruple threat in the run game is fantastic, and I think apart from committing to a man cover approach, Cuba has a good strategy for addressing it. The pass game for Lancaster is considerably more concerning, as their top two guys have some tough matchups and the depth isn't really there to take advantage of Cuba's CB depth. The tight ends also didn't light the world on fire.

On the other side, Cuba has some issues at the tackle spots but that's mostly a problem for next week. I like the plan to help Jonah against Watt, and while featuring Rondale Moore on screens at WR3 feels like a waste of snaps, Calvin Ridley should get a lot of work as the WR2 working on Tyrique Stevenson. It feels like Cuba will really struggle to do anything against a great inside defense, and they'll definitely have their share of quick three and outs as a result.

It projects as a long back-and-forth game, but I'm ultimately going with Cuba this time around despite feeling Lancaster was robbed of a playoff spot last year. Cuba's revamped defensive line is solid enough all-around to get some stops, and I think they have just enough of an advantage in the passing game to pull it out on a game-winning drive.