Justin Fields

[G08]

Found this interesting, comparing Justin Fields post-injury (final 7 weeks of the regular season) to Jalen Hurts final 7 games of the regular season:

Hurts - 60.66% / 1,361 passing yards / 8 TDs / 6 INTs / 80.3 rating / 9 sacks / 260 rushing yards / 6 TDs / 4 fumbles (2 lost)

Fields - 61.06% / 1,361 passing yards / 5 TDs / 3 INTs / 82.2 rating / 20 sacks / 420 rushing yards / 3 TDs / 6 fumbles (2 lost)

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The identical passing yards made me laugh, but was surprised to see more rushing yards out of Justin Fields.

The sack numbers are ridiculous and need to come down, as do the total fumbles.

I think one could say, this season anyway, Jalen Hurts is a tick above what Justin Fields is (all things considered when you look at overall talent, etc.)

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, refundmytickets said:

The reason I made the comparison is this: we have never seen a 3rd year QB with no track record become a great QB.

Drew Brees doesn’t exist? You can debate greatness, but Eli Manning took til year 5 to figure it out and he’s probably going to the HOF. Alex Smith wasn’t great but he was a 3x pro bowler with the first coming at age 29. It’s uncommon for guys to make a big leap after year 3, but it’s not as unprecedented as people say. I think some of the reason we don’t see it as much as we could is because teams aren’t as patient with developing guys as they used to be. If a highly regarded QB prospect isn’t a star in 3 years they’re often discarded along with the regime that brought them in. 

You're off Fields and I get it. I really do. I’m of the mind that he’s been in circumstances that have stunted his growth significantly to this point, certainly in the first 2 years, and because of that I’m comfortable giving him more time both because the physical ability is all there and because I believe that he’s the kind of guy who is going to get everything out of his ability eventually. He showed clear growth in year 3 despite Getsy being an abomination of an OC off script, and those circumstances that have hurt his development should be changing for the better moving forward, especially if we add additional assets by trading down. I’m also of the mind that while Williams is a really good prospect he’s not as rare a prospect as some believe. He’s also already had the top tier offensive mind coaching with Riley that we’re hoping to get for Fields. Because of that, I also think it’s possible he’s already made whatever jump he’s gonna make.

I don’t dislike Williams at all. If we go that route I’ll be 100% on board with it. I’m just still a believer in Fields too.

Edited January 12 by AZBearsFan

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

No matter how we slice this, it’s not a simple evaluation. Those who want to stick with Fields can reasonably justify it. Those who want to move on can justify why they shouldn’t keep Fields. 

And this is a perfect example at why I have a near apathy for the situation. I don't really care what they do, and I don't care that I don't care. I just hope they do something right for a change and I'm rooting for it to work, whatever it is.  lol

[AZBearsFan]

8 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

And this is a perfect example at why I have a near apathy for the situation. I don't really care what they do, and I don't care that I don't care. I just hope they do something right for a change and I'm rooting for it to work, whatever it is.  lol

Exactly. Just get it right. I don’t care if the other one becomes a superstar so long as our guy moving forward is good. 

[Epyon]

The one thing I'll give Fields a bit of a pass on regarding his ability to read the Field is how much more complex coverages are at the NFL level..... I watched a lengthy video breakdown of the hybrid styled coverages and why QBs everywhere are struggling more this year.... and I can only imagine trying to accurately identify cover 2 on one half of the field and cover 4 on the other consistently, and within 3 seconds of the snap, while the coverage is also actively rolling coverages specifically to disguise throws.  Basically the stuff Vic Fangio was doing is now becoming very common across the league, and offenses are having trouble catching up. 

The conclusion the video came up with is that the coverages are more or less giving you the flat immediately, but shutting everything down behind that..... but you need to be able to read fast and hit the checkdown fast for the free ~5yards. So basically play in rhythm and get the ball out quickly, which is Fields' biggest struggle as a passer.  I'll be honest, while Caleb has shown a greater CAPABILITY to get the ball out quickly in structure than Fields.... I'm not sure he's patient/meticulous enough to run an offense where you take the free and easy "dink and dunk" plays downfield. Rodgers, Brady, and Manning where all time greats not because they could home run ball you, but because they could patiently and methodically take whatever you gave them underneath over and over and over and move the ball, until you tried to stop it, AND THEN go over the top and destroy you.

[Sugashane]

19 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Drew Brees doesn’t exist? You can debate greatness, but Eli Manning took til year 5 to figure it out and he’s probably going to the HOF. Alex Smith wasn’t great but he was a 3x pro bowler with the first coming at age 29. It’s uncommon for guys to make a big leap after year 3, but it’s not as unprecedented as people say. I think some of the reason we don’t see it as much as we could is because teams aren’t as patient with developing guys as they used to be. If a highly regarded QB prospect isn’t a star in 3 years they’re often discarded along with the regime that brought them in. 

You're off Fields and I get it. I really do. I’m of the mind that he’s been in circumstances that have stunted his growth significantly to this point, certainly in the first 2 years, and because of that I’m comfortable giving him more time both because the physical ability is all there and because I believe that he’s the kind of guy who is going to get everything out of his ability eventually. He showed clear growth in year 3 despite Getsy being an abomination of an OC off script, and those circumstances that have hurt his development should be changing for the better moving forward, especially if we add additional assets by trading down. I’m also of the mind that while Williams is a really good prospect he’s not as rare a prospect as some believe. He’s also already had the top tier offensive mind coaching with Riley that we’re hoping to get for Fields. Because of that, I also think it’s possible he’s already made whatever jump he’s gonna make.

I don’t dislike Williams at all. If we go that route I’ll be 100% on board with it. I’m just still a believer in Fields too.

I'm also going to mention the guy who bent CHI over his knee for an entire career - Aaron Rodgers. Dude threw like 60 passes over his first 3 years then took over in GB.

Steve Young was a round 1 pick 1 player by the Bucs in the supplemental draft, then when he got to the NFL he had to wait until his 7th year to start and have success.

Favre was in his 4th year (and 3rd in GB) before he had his first great year.

McNair was exciting but did not stand out until later on in his career, and was a Co-MVP.

While I wouldn't call him great by any means, Geno Smith has had MUCH better play than most of us would have ever guessed after his start.

I'm sure there are others, but just a few off the top of my head.

Edited January 12 by Sugashane
correction on Young

[Sugashane]

16 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

And this is a perfect example at why I have a near apathy for the situation. I don't really care what they do, and I don't care that I don't care. I just hope they do something right for a change and I'm rooting for it to work, whatever it is.  lol

Holy ****, I've become a less personable Jay Cutler

 

 

 

[refundmytickets]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

Drew Brees doesn’t exist? You can debate greatness, but Eli Manning took til year 5 to figure it out and he’s probably going to the HOF. Alex Smith wasn’t great but he was a 3x pro bowler with the first coming at age 29. It’s uncommon for guys to make a big leap after year 3, but it’s not as unprecedented as people say. I think some of the reason we don’t see it as much as we could is because teams aren’t as patient with developing guys as they used to be. If a highly regarded QB prospect isn’t a star in 3 years they’re often discarded along with the regime that brought them in. 

Brees is a good example. You could argue he was good in his 3rd year of actual playing time. I don't view Alex Smith as a great QB. I don't think the Bears would keep Fields if he's playing at Smith's level in year 4 or god forbid year 5.

Teams are moving on faster every year. Few young QBs get the repeated chances Smith or Manning got. The 2011 CBA changed everything. Eli Manning's 2004 contract had a 7.7M AAV. That's 9.5% of the 2004 salary cap. Bryce Young's contract had a 9.5M AAV, just 4.2% of the 2023 cap ceiling. It simply doesn't make financial sense to keep a mediocre QB past his 1st contract. Rookie QBs are cheaper and more NFL-ready than before.

I'd also argue that Fields is a very different player than Brees, Smith, or Geno. Those guys were lower-ceiling athletes who had to play QB all along. Fields is an athlete playing QB even as a 3rd year starter. With Fields you need to both overhaul his mechanics and teach him how to play the position.

I like Fields. I'd understand if the Bears stuck with him. But it seems more straightforward to get the best rookie QB into the building and focus on developing him correctly from the beginning. And I think the Bears are in a rare position to actually support a young QB from year 1.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, refundmytickets said:

I don't think the Bears would keep Fields if he's playing at Smith's level in year 4 or god forbid year 5.

The pro bowl version of Smith that went for 4000 yards in 15 games, averaged 8.0 ypa and had a 5.2:1 TD:INT ratio in his last year in KC with Mahomes waiting on the bench? I think they’d be juuuuuuuust fine with that. 

2 hours ago, refundmytickets said:

I like Fields. I'd understand if the Bears stuck with him. But it seems more straightforward to get the best rookie QB into the building and focus on developing him correctly from the beginning. And I think the Bears are in a rare position to actually support a young QB from year 1.

I don’t disagree with the concept. The thing for me is, Fields is still a young QB too. He’s gonna be 25 this season. Both Nix and Penix will both be 24 as rookies. Williams will turn 23 in November. 

[refundmytickets]

7 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

The pro bowl version of Smith that went for 4000 yards in 15 games, averaged 8.0 ypa and had a 5.2:1 TD:INT ratio in his last year in KC with Mahomes waiting on the bench? I think they’d be juuuuuuuust fine with that. 

I meant Smith's 5th year. If Fields in year 5 is playing like Smith in year 5, the Bears would move on.

Fields is not going to stick in Chicago like Smith did in SF for a number of reasons. Most of these QB turnarounds happen with a QB's 2nd team.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

10 hours ago, refundmytickets said:

Brees is a good example. You could argue he was good in his 3rd year of actual playing time. I don't view Alex Smith as a great QB. I don't think the Bears would keep Fields if he's playing at Smith's level in year 4 or god forbid year 5.

Teams are moving on faster every year. Few young QBs get the repeated chances Smith or Manning got. The 2011 CBA changed everything. Eli Manning's 2004 contract had a 7.7M AAV. That's 9.5% of the 2004 salary cap. Bryce Young's contract had a 9.5M AAV, just 4.2% of the 2023 cap ceiling. It simply doesn't make financial sense to keep a mediocre QB past his 1st contract. Rookie QBs are cheaper and more NFL-ready than before.

I'd also argue that Fields is a very different player than Brees, Smith, or Geno. Those guys were lower-ceiling athletes who had to play QB all along. Fields is an athlete playing QB even as a 3rd year starter. With Fields you need to both overhaul his mechanics and teach him how to play the position.

I like Fields. I'd understand if the Bears stuck with him. But it seems more straightforward to get the best rookie QB into the building and focus on developing him correctly from the beginning. And I think the Bears are in a rare position to actually support a young QB from year 1.

This is kind of where I'm at,  I think the coaching and GM timelines are going to force a rookie QB onto the Bears as much as any actual evaluation of Fields or Maye/Williams.  And it's so unusual to have a not terrible team making the first overall pick they at least have that going for them.  I don't think they're going to sit either of those guys from the draft, but they at least have 4/5 of a decent OL so far,  decent running backs, and one very good WR and a very good TE.  Hit center in FA,  add a FA WR and draft another, get depth at tackle.  I think the success of the next year is going to come down more to how good a rookie QB is than anything else.  Good QB play makes everything else look better.  

[anonymousGM]

8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t disagree with the concept. The thing for me is, Fields is still a young QB too. He’s gonna be 25 this season. Both Nix and Penix will both be 24 as rookies. Williams will turn 23 in November. 

Age isn't the issue. I've said it once and ill say it again. Its strictly about the contract situation. Is Justin Fields good enough to justify a 25+ million dollar cap hit over what Caleb Williams would get as a replacement for the next 5 years? With that money you could sign a premium free agent or continue extending the young talent you have. Am I saying that I'm not rooting for a guy to have success because we'll have to pay him more... no... If the Bears trade out of the #1 pick i'll stand up and clap for Justin Fields as our QB, he deserves it!

I simply like trying to predict what the Bears will do and from what we've seen from Poles he wants to build long-term success and won't sacrifice anything for the short-term if it effects the teams future too much

[beardown3231]

 

[StLunatic88]

19 minutes ago, anonymousGM said:

Age isn't the issue. I've said it once and ill say it again. Its strictly about the contract situation. Is Justin Fields good enough to justify a 25+ million dollar cap hit over what Caleb Williams would get as a replacement for the next 5 years? With that money you could sign a premium free agent or continue extending the young talent you have. Am I saying that I'm not rooting for a guy to have success because we'll have to pay him more...

Except its not that simple. Its not just a Cap Swap of Veteran QB deal for Rookie QB deal. There is waterfall, assuming that you use the pick successfully on another position (what we are assuming that CW would be) 

If we would get another WR (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze...) that means we also dont have to pay Mike Evans (or Pittman or Higgins) $20m-ish or even the step down to Gabe Davis ( or Ridley or Hollywood). Is it quite the same as the Tip-top QBs? No, but I also dont think as of now we would be paying the $40m/y for Fields either. So that Cap transfer is still there, just for a different position.

Could be said the same for getting a DE or a LT or an of these ascending contracts for premier positions

As I have said before, the "Rookie QB contract" mantra is at best a crutch for bad GMs and more so a myth when it actually comes to good roster building

[anonymousGM]

2 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Except its not that simple. Its not just a Cap Swap of Veteran QB deal for Rookie QB deal. There is waterfall, assuming that you use the pick successfully on another position (what we are assuming that CW would be) 

If we would get another WR (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze...) that means we also dont have to pay Mike Evans (or Pittman or Higgins) $20m-ish or even the step down to Gabe Davis ( or Ridley or Hollywood). Is it quite the same as the Tip-top QBs? No, but I also dont think as of now we would be paying the $40m/y for Fields either. So that Cap transfer is still there, just for a different position.

Could be said the same for getting a DE or a LT or an of these ascending contracts for premier positions

As I have said before, the "Rookie QB contract" mantra is at best a crutch for bad GMs and more so a myth when it actually comes to good roster building

I was basing the cap difference between Bryce Young and Lamar Jackson.

About the "rookie QB contract" its not so much that you want the rookie contract its that once you sign your franchise QB to an NFL all-star contract your super bowl window begins to close. How fast or how slow the window begins to close varies a bit but there are a number of examples of this. The Chiefs are a good case study and personally I feel that they are in big trouble and severely handicapped by the Mahomes contract. We'll see how that all plays out.

If you add up the 5th year option plus the franchise tag for Fields for following season (technically) he's on a 2 year 38 million dollar deal.