• 2024 Draft Prospects •

[Dallas94Ware]

I've been so stuck on the QBs of this draft class because I'm so "thirsty" (to use some old Brooklyn slang) for Dallas to at least contemplate taking one in first 2 rounds, as I've been for them to do the last 2 drafts - I wanted Hooker or Levis, and Willis the year before, to be precise.

And this really is a hell of a class. I don't think all of these guys are going to be as great as analysts say. There's an omg level length of list of cons for each guy. Each of them have a lot to overcome to reach their potential.

And with this last round of game film I've watched, nothing in my thought patterns have really changed. Except I've really put in some deep effort to study the cons more this time around. And make some NFL comparisons for each guy that emphasizes more what their cons could cause them to become rather than just considering their potential.

Caleb Williams to me, his biggest con or flaw is having a very bad clock in his head. Especially in the pocket. He waits a little too long for his key route to develop and it often results in him taking off out of the pocket, scrambling around, and jumping through proverbial hurdles that lends itself to a simple 2 or 3 yard gain or a total misfire and incompletion as opposed to having just checked it down for 6 yards earlier in the play. This can become very problematic in the pros, because those quick check downs when a route takes too long to develop become an essential part of NFL offensive success. When you let it run on too long and have to attempt some miracle, it lends itself to bad plays in the NFL more than successful ones. And in that, I compare him most to Baker Mayfield.

Not a bad player. Not a superman either. The ability was there for him to be a superman. But his internal clock and looking to play big too often has often held him back.

Next is Drake Maye. Unfortunately for Maye he has been spoken of less and less with Daniels being more the talk of the town at #2 now. But he is very talented. His biggest con or drawback from what I watch, is his reliance on his arm more than his brain. He puts the ball in harms way too often, and the ball sometimes comes out too flat at the second and third level because he processed what he saw too slow, and tries to gun it in there. Which reminds me a ton of Jay Cutler. Not a bad career. But could have and should have been a better career if he stopped relying on what his arm was capable of, and learned to see things and digest them faster, so the ball could come out on time with a better placement and with less risk.

Jayden Daniels has the physical abilities that just make you eager to see what he will be in 3 or 4 years. His mobility. The arm. The deep ball. The quick release. But when you factor in how inconsistent he is with putting it all together, it's troubling. He never seems to keep his legs, arm and release working together often enough - you see it at times, and it's awesome. But too often you see him break containment and pocket and immediately look for the play with his legs. Or have a pocket in the midst of collapse and a clear lane to escape. But he is so committed to the pass and stuck with eyes up the field that it results in a sack-fumble or some other negative play. Then you see plays where he has this super fast release getting the ball to a short target on perfect timing, and then others where his release is such a long and drawn out windup and then compounding the issue is how slowly he recognized the opening, resulting in a breakdown of timing. Because of this, I make the comparison to Kyler Murray. All of the tools to be special. And if the tools come together, look out! But if they continue to work opposite of each other, he will be stuck in a constant circle of wow--ugh--wow--ugh, just like Murray.

Lastly for now. McCarthy. The game manager on proverbial steroids. None of the truly special traits you hope for, but all of the essential traits you need. Smoothest, cleanest throw of all the guys in the draft. But with one big, glaring drawback - that being exactly what makes him intriguing. That he has all of the essentials and basically none of the special, next level stuff. Which at the end of the day, could leave him stuck in a relative zone of mediocrity. Where he may put together an above great but below special season now and then, but overall does just enough to win plenty of games but never do enough to cross the hurdles needed to put on the ring. This leaves me comparing him to Derek Carr. Carr has had a good career. And should continue to. Problem is, he was in MVP consideration that one season, and has made a couple pro bowls. But I don't think anyone is exactly considering him a top QB or an upper tier player at his position. And that is where McCarthy could end up stuck.

[Dallas94Ware]

27 minutes ago, textaz03 said:

But are they still really that good? You’re going into a season with all new Defensive philosophy, 2 new starters on your Offensive Line (possibly rookies at the blindside and your protection caller) new starting RB or running back by committee. All new interior DLine rotation (only 4 interior DLine members currently on roster).

Parsons and Lawrence are still a solid core on the DL. Clark is still a young LB that looked ready to become a real playmaker. Overshown was on the trajectory before injury to be a rookie of note, and could.still be special. Diggs and Bland are one of the best corner duos in the NFL. On the OL, Biadasz was nothing special. He was decent. But nothing you can't replace with a cheap vet or middling draft pick if you bring in the right guy, cause they don't need to be special to live up to the standard Biadasz set. Tyron is probably the biggest loss, but first round looks increasingly like a OL selection - and even if not. Tyler at LT and Bass at LG will surprise people. Bass reminds me of Ron Leary. And Leary was the best LG this team had before Tyler landed here. Dak is still Dak. An MVP contender every year. Maybe not the MVP. But always contending.  Lamb is quietly the best do it all WR since Diggs first couple years in Buffalo. And Rb...what did Pollard do for us this season, really? Just contribute? I can name 6 runners in the draft who, paired with Dowdle and hopefully Vaughn, could do the same thing for this team that Pollard did. 

They're still a good team. With more holes to fill than before. But still a damn good team. Will they win 12? I don't think so. But will they lose 12? I think that even less than I think they'd win 12.

Will they have a higher pick than 24 next year? Right now I'd bet on a resounding YES. But top 10? I just don't see the guys they lost as being worth 6 or 7 wins/losses to end up at 5-12 or 6-11 and netting s pick that high.

Edited April 4 by Dallas94Ware

[Dallas94Ware]

Continuing with my NFL comps of the QBs this year that emphasize more of their cons and draw backs than their maximized potential...

Bo Nix is a bit of enigma. Auburn Bo Nix was horrendous. Oregon Bo Nix almost makes you view him as a high first round selection. And that overall growth as a player is definitely a plus on its own. His system that relied on a lot of early down throws that kept the ball behind or just barely last the LOS were frustrating, and then just as frustrating when in true pass plays, he played deep too often - almost as if he had forgotten that the idea is to move the chains. Almost like these new Baseball players who think every at bat needs to be a home run instead of realizing that sometimes just getting on base can really help your team. This is his biggest flaw and drawback and could really hinder his growth in the NFL. If he comes into the pros playing deep and giving such consistent oversight to the more common NFL plays, it could be doom for his career. But his the growth he showed from Auburn to Oregon, the way he grasped and embraced the new system and put together his quick release, good footwork, and solid arm to work together combined WITH what I think is his biggest con has me comparing him to our own Tony Romo. Someone with a very good career who won a lot of games, threw a lot of scores, but who's "gutsy" play seeking the home run and knack for playing deep also caused more turnovers than he ever needed to throw, and while it never outright held the team back from playoff success, a combination of factors both individual  to the player and team wide prevented playoff success. And this is still even a more positive comp for Bo Nix, but still quite emphasizes his biggest con 

And lastly, Michael Penix. A truly reliable dissector of defenses presnap, who arguably could enter the league about as mentally prepared as any of the 'top' prospects at the position because of how consistently he was identifying and adjusting presnap. But he has one huge con that overshadows many of his pros, and outweighs any other con you can point out about him. And while playing deep, playing hero ball Tony Romo style like I comped for Nix above, certainly could fit here too... Its His flat delivery of the football that worries me most. The trajectory is often lower than it needs to be and flattens out far too much over the middle. I like that he is successful in most of his decisions over the middle. But in the NFL a flat throw over the middle is a pick almost every time. Linebackers in the NFL can cover. They can be pretty fast. And some of them are even as athletic as most safeties, and able to jump into that flat lane trajectory. It gives me a lot of pause when I listen to analysts who say he could slip into the late first, because for all of the talent there is to build on and work with, this one huge con is the biggest problem of any of the other prospects. Fixable? Yes. Easily fixed? No. And for that, I compare him to Geno Smith. Geno turned his career around and fixed his two biggest flaws, one of them being a flat throw over the middle. But early on, that flat trajectory made it impossible for teens to rely on him as a starter despite all of the good there was to work with. 

Edited April 4 by Dallas94Ware

[Rtnldave]

1 hour ago, Dallas94Ware said:

I hate to say rebuild. Because they don't need to rebuild! The team is talented and has a very strong group of young players that other teams wish they had picked.

What is likely on the horizon given this situation as it is, is Dallas on the verge of a transition period. An overpaid QB, an overachieving yet somehow also overachieving HC, it's just time to do or die for them. Sink or swim. And if they sink, it is set up perfectly to transition to the new leadership of the team. A new HC, a new QB, and a new direction.

But not a rebuild. You don't rebuild a 12 win team after 3 straight 13 win seasons. You simply do all you can to transition it to new leadership while retaining the key points that won you 12 games for 3 straight seasons.

Further, outside of a total collapse from Dak or some weird situation where the coaches plug in Lance or Rush and bench Dak from week 1, or trade him, or he gets hurt,  there is little chance this team has such a year in which they obtain a top 10 pick. The team itself is just too good. Even with Rush I could see them winning 8 to 10 games.

What I personally think the idea is, is much simpler. Shadeur Sanders and his dad Deion are set to move to the NFL next year. Deion has said he would "Eli" his son Shadeur to make sure he goes where Deion wants him to. He's maintained a great relationship with Jerry and loves the city of Dallas.

It's not unfathomable to think this is set up so that when Dak's contract is up, McCarthys is also, and Zimmer only got a 1 year deal, that Jerry forks over a butt ton of money to bring Deion here. Tags Dak, trades him and a first round pick or multiple first round picks, to go get Shadeur. And transition this very good team to a new leadership under Deion, quarterbaced by Shadeur, who gets the added benefit of competing with a similar styled talent in Lance or even sit on the bench and develop while Lance plays.

Tons of possibilities really. Mine is just a wishful thinking. And I don't think you're wrong per se. I just think calling it a.rebuild when your team is actually very good. Is going a little too far. And expecting the team to tank itself into a top 10 pick is also unlikely, for the same reason - they are too good to lose that many games.

Good team??? Did you watch the Wild Card game?

We got SHREDDED by a rookie to the postseason QB in our own house where we were virtually undefeated!

What in the hell did you see from that drubbing to convince you this is/was a good team?

They won 12 games. Many against crap!

Im not interested in perpetrating this trend of double digit wins against lising teams only to get stomped in the post season by a guy who never played in the post season!

[TVScout]

10 hours ago, Rtnldave said:

What in the hell did you see from that drubbing to convince you this is/was a good team?

Bad coaching.

[TVScout]

By the by Ourlads mocks Pennix to us.

 

Edited April 4 by TVScout

[plan9misfit]

12 hours ago, Dallas94Ware said:

I've been so stuck on the QBs of this draft class because I'm so "thirsty" (to use some old Brooklyn slang) for Dallas to at least contemplate taking one in first 2 rounds, as I've been for them to do the last 2 drafts - I wanted Hooker or Levis, and Willis the year before, to be precise.

And this really is a hell of a class. I don't think all of these guys are going to be as great as analysts say. There's an omg level length of list of cons for each guy. Each of them have a lot to overcome to reach their potential.

And with this last round of game film I've watched, nothing in my thought patterns have really changed. Except I've really put in some deep effort to study the cons more this time around. And make some NFL comparisons for each guy that emphasizes more what their cons could cause them to become rather than just considering their potential.

Caleb Williams to me, his biggest con or flaw is having a very bad clock in his head. Especially in the pocket. He waits a little too long for his key route to develop and it often results in him taking off out of the pocket, scrambling around, and jumping through proverbial hurdles that lends itself to a simple 2 or 3 yard gain or a total misfire and incompletion as opposed to having just checked it down for 6 yards earlier in the play. This can become very problematic in the pros, because those quick check downs when a route takes too long to develop become an essential part of NFL offensive success. When you let it run on too long and have to attempt some miracle, it lends itself to bad plays in the NFL more than successful ones. And in that, I compare him most to Baker Mayfield.

Not a bad player. Not a superman either. The ability was there for him to be a superman. But his internal clock and looking to play big too often has often held him back.

Next is Drake Maye. Unfortunately for Maye he has been spoken of less and less with Daniels being more the talk of the town at #2 now. But he is very talented. His biggest con or drawback from what I watch, is his reliance on his arm more than his brain. He puts the ball in harms way too often, and the ball sometimes comes out too flat at the second and third level because he processed what he saw too slow, and tries to gun it in there. Which reminds me a ton of Jay Cutler. Not a bad career. But could have and should have been a better career if he stopped relying on what his arm was capable of, and learned to see things and digest them faster, so the ball could come out on time with a better placement and with less risk.

Jayden Daniels has the physical abilities that just make you eager to see what he will be in 3 or 4 years. His mobility. The arm. The deep ball. The quick release. But when you factor in how inconsistent he is with putting it all together, it's troubling. He never seems to keep his legs, arm and release working together often enough - you see it at times, and it's awesome. But too often you see him break containment and pocket and immediately look for the play with his legs. Or have a pocket in the midst of collapse and a clear lane to escape. But he is so committed to the pass and stuck with eyes up the field that it results in a sack-fumble or some other negative play. Then you see plays where he has this super fast release getting the ball to a short target on perfect timing, and then others where his release is such a long and drawn out windup and then compounding the issue is how slowly he recognized the opening, resulting in a breakdown of timing. Because of this, I make the comparison to Kyler Murray. All of the tools to be special. And if the tools come together, look out! But if they continue to work opposite of each other, he will be stuck in a constant circle of wow--ugh--wow--ugh, just like Murray.

Lastly for now. McCarthy. The game manager on proverbial steroids. None of the truly special traits you hope for, but all of the essential traits you need. Smoothest, cleanest throw of all the guys in the draft. But with one big, glaring drawback - that being exactly what makes him intriguing. That he has all of the essentials and basically none of the special, next level stuff. Which at the end of the day, could leave him stuck in a relative zone of mediocrity. Where he may put together an above great but below special season now and then, but overall does just enough to win plenty of games but never do enough to cross the hurdles needed to put on the ring. This leaves me comparing him to Derek Carr. Carr has had a good career. And should continue to. Problem is, he was in MVP consideration that one season, and has made a couple pro bowls. But I don't think anyone is exactly considering him a top QB or an upper tier player at his position. And that is where McCarthy could end up stuck.

Those are fair assessments. A few other things to add/expand on:

Caleb Williams - Too much "hero ball". Aside from the poorer level clock in his head, he'll bail on the play almost immediately after the snap, which leads to far too many off schedule plays, where he then continually goes for the deep ball rather than taking the check down and/or cutting off significant portions of the field. IMO, that's his biggest flaw.

Drake Maye - The Jay Cutler comparison is spot on. I actually used that same one a few weeks ago when I was talking about him with some friends. He relies WAY too much on his arm, and is very hot/cold. Like Cutler (both at Vandy and in the NFL), you never know what you're going to get from throw to throw.

Jayden Daniels - In a nutshell, he's a 2-year project who will need to go to a team with a very dynamic head coach or OC who can draw the potential out of him. He also needs to add weight onto his frame. His very slight, so I'd be concerned with injuries.

JJ McCarthy - I don't see the 1st round hype with him. Even as a Michigan man, I don't see anything about his game that "pops". Nothing jumps off the screen with him. He has great intangibles, but mediocre skill.

Bo Nix - Pure dink and dunk QB. I think he'd be very reliable in a WCO, but would fail miserably if he plays in a spread / air raid style offense which continually goes deep.

Michael Penix - Best pure passer in this draft. Goofy delivery, because it's slightly sidearm, which leaves the release point and trajectory a bit flat for my taste, but that can be coached out of him. And, not playing in an air raid offense will help with that.

To your point regarding mid-range passes, most college QBs struggle with those. As you know, the offenses generally aren't designed to effectively create mid-level throws, and the hash mark locations in college all but remove those plays because they almost force plays to be on one side of the field or the other, as opposed to them being much closer together, thus allowing WRs and pass plays to cover the entire width of the field in the NFL. 

[Rtnldave]

6 hours ago, TVScout said:

Bad coaching.

And with even less talent than we had last year, you expect the coaching to improve?

[plan9misfit]

On 4/4/2024 at 1:16 PM, Rtnldave said:

And with even less talent than we had last year, you expect the coaching to improve?

Even if the coaching *does* improve, that still won’t likely translate to great play on the field. It’ll just mean that we can recognize better play calling and scheme with subpar execution.

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

On 4/4/2024 at 8:59 AM, TVScout said:

By the by Ourlads mocks Pennix to us.

 

Lol, if we draft a 24 year old QB with major knee and shoulder injury history in the first round, I will livestream myself eating my underwear and then stop watching football forever.

[TVScout]

On 4/4/2024 at 9:50 AM, plan9misfit said:

Drake Maye - The Jay Cutler comparison is spot on.

In terms of physical talents Okay. But that is as far as it goes. Cutler was an un coachable spoiled brat who would throw his team mates under the bus.

[plan9misfit]

13 hours ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Lol, if we draft a 24 year old QB with major knee and shoulder injury history in the first round, I will livestream myself eating my underwear and then stop watching football forever.

I don’t see it happening for a variety of reasons, but I wouldn’t hate the selection given the structure of their draft and who was selected. I’d be leery given his injury history at Indiana, but I wouldn’t hate it. I’m not saying that I’d like it, either. Drafting Penix is a 2-3 year wait and see selection.

[Northland]

On 4/6/2024 at 12:16 AM, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Lol, if we draft a 24 year old QB with major knee and shoulder injury history in the first round, I will livestream myself eating my underwear and then stop watching football forever.

Here's to drafting Penix at 24, lol!  

[plan9misfit]

3 hours ago, Northland said:

Here's to drafting Penix at 24, lol!  

As I said, I wouldn’t be against it, per se, but it would come with reservations. You and I saw a lot more of Penix than most people on this board, so we know what he’s capable of at QB. The concern that many (rightfully) have is the injury history, now limited athleticism, and him being a bit older than some of the other prospects. If he’s well protected, then he’ll be fine, but he’s not a guy who can elevate an entire team on his own. He’s good, but not elite in that respect.

[plan9misfit]

Now he’s starting to fit the mold of a Cowboys player.