MikeT14 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: I just don't believe there are as many quality QBs in this draft as others are making it out to be. Certainly any of them could succeed, but none of them are sure things and as I have said before, this new regime has to NAIL their first pick. We cannot afford a bust at any position. That could happen with a trade down too. So as much work as they are doing on QBs, they could do that on tackles and walk away with Evan Neal, or EDGEs and walk away with Chase Young, or WRs and walk away with Justin Blackmon. All in all, if at the end of the day, Adam Peters came out and said "We took MHJ Jr because he was the best on our board and we believe in Howell" or "we traded down because of the incredible value we got because we didn't like the QBs" I'll respect it. I will disagree with it vehemently and surely ocmplain about it, but he's smarter and better at this than I am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, MikeT14 said: I don't feel like doing it now, but it would be interesting compiling the scenarios that unfolded between bad teams taking a QB now vs. building a team up and then getting your QB. I'm sure it's a mixed bag in both directions. I doubt it will take that long, because the number of bad teams with no QB who intentionally passed on QB in the top couple picks — in favor of building up a roster — is approaching zero. Maybe Cleveland in 2017? They took Myles Garrett over the top 3 QBs that year. Elite player. Taking him over Trubisky was a great call. But taking him over Mahomes was…why you don’t take a DE over a QB. They got an incredible player. And it’s meant absolutely nothing. Because we’re 7 years into his career, and despite having Myles F. Garrett, they’ve won zero division titles, they’ve only finished second in their division once, and they’ve got one playoff win. Which, incidentally, was won with Baker Mayfield, the QB they eventually drafted #1. And that playoff run ended at the hands of…Patrick Mahomes. Who, just for the record, has never fallen short of the AFC Championship game in his 6 seasons as a starter. The Browns made the playoffs again last year with a gutsy roster, and they rolled out Joe Flacco in the WC game against the #2 pick — and got demolished. Meanwhile, the guy they’d drafted #1 won another playoff game in TB, and then lost a close one to a good Detroit team…and their QB, who was also once drafted #1 (and was acquired via a trade of yet another QB who was drafted #1). Nothing matters in the NFL like elite talent at the QB position. It’s not happenstance that no matter what changes around them, the elite guys are always around at the end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RSkinGM Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, e16bball said: I doubt it will take that long, because the number of bad teams with no QB who intentionally passed on QB in the top couple picks — in favor of building up a roster — is approaching zero. Maybe Cleveland in 2017? They took Myles Garrett over the top 3 QBs that year. Elite player. Taking him over Trubisky was a great call. But taking him over Mahomes was…why you don’t take a DE over a QB. They got an incredible player. And it’s meant absolutely nothing. Because we’re 7 years into his career, and despite having Myles F. Garrett, they’ve won zero division titles, they’ve only finished second in their division once, and they’ve got one playoff win. Which, incidentally, was won with Baker Mayfield, the QB they eventually drafted #1. And that playoff run ended at the hands of…Patrick Mahomes. Who, just for the record, has never fallen short of the AFC Championship game in his 6 seasons as a starter. The Browns made the playoffs again last year with a gutsy roster, and they rolled out Joe Flacco in the WC game against the #2 pick — and got demolished. Meanwhile, the guy they’d drafted #1 won another playoff game in TB, and then lost a close one to a good Detroit team…and their QB, who was also once drafted #1 (and was acquired via a trade of yet another QB who was drafted #1). Nothing matters in the NFL like elite talent at the QB position. It’s not happenstance that no matter what changes around them, the elite guys are always around at the end. Agree--BUT are Drake and Jaylean elite ? Or even Williams ? I say yes on him -the others , a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 25 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: That could happen with a trade down too. So as much work as they are doing on QBs, they could do that on tackles and walk away with Evan Neal, or EDGEs and walk away with Chase Young, or WRs and walk away with Justin Blackmon. All in all, if at the end of the day, Adam Peters came out and said "We took MHJ Jr because he was the best on our board and we believe in Howell" or "we traded down because of the incredible value we got because we didn't like the QBs" I'll respect it. I will disagree with it vehemently and surely ocmplain about it, but he's smarter and better at this than I am. I agree with this take. As a draft fanatic, the idea of getting a giant cache of draft picks in a trade package is exciting to me. Would love to have the pick volume to imagine huge draft classes with lots of high-end talent. So I could enjoy it, from that perspective. I just wouldn’t think it was the right move. I don’t have much (if any) belief in Sam, and I don’t have much more belief in any of the non-top 3 prospects. Unless they signed Cousins, you could just write off 2024 as a totally wasted year from a QB standpoint. No actual QB, no developing future QB, and a better roster that would likely win too many games to be in position to draft a highly-desired prospect (if there even are any) next year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RSkinGM Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Rattler -- the next K C .. ?? worth a 3rd if he's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 24 minutes ago, RSkinGM said: Agree--BUT are Drake and Jaylean elite ? Or even Williams ? I say yes on him -the others , a crap shoot. I think this is a very hard question to really, truly answer for all of us who don’t actually get to meet them and grill them and speak to the people they’ve worked with over the years. Because I think the most important thing about being a QB is the mental side of it — intelligence, processing, work ethic, leadership traits — but there’s not TOO much that we can glean about that just from watching them play on Saturdays. For example, I think Sam is…not that bright. For an NFL QB, I mean. He’s probably plenty smart for a normal person, but this particular job requires special processing skills. There was a lot of smoke about bad interviews with him, and I think that’s what sent his stock plummeting. It’s always been the same thing with Sam, even dating back to his junior year at UNC — when he sees it, it goes great. But he doesn’t see it fast enough, and in the NFL, you really have to be able to know it’s gonna be there even before you see it. And he’s just never really proved to be able to do that. From the stuff I can see, I do agree that Williams appears to have the most special “on tape” gifts. God tier arm talent and God tier natural playmaking instincts, a combination that only the mega-elite guys have. And Daniels is pretty easy to discuss, I think, because his two elite traits jump off the screen. He’s an A+ scrambler and he throws an A+ deep ball. Always has, even back at ASU. I think they’re both elite talents on the film. I actually think Maye is the toughest to peg because he doesn’t have the obvious carrying trait. He has a great arm, but it’s not God Tier like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Caleb. He’s a good runner, but he’s not Lamar, Fields, Daniels, etc. He’s a very creative playmaker, but again, he’s not Mahomes or Caleb in that department. But he has all those traits, so I think he’s more of an all-around/total package type guy who doesn’t really excel in any area. Maybe that makes him less “special” than the guys with the A+ traits? I’m not sure. I think he probably needs the “high end mental traits” seal of approval more than the other two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, RSkinGM said: Rattler -- the next K C .. ?? worth a 3rd if he's there. He's a good option for the Rams, Vikings (if Cousins is back), Jets, Saints, etc. Let him sit for a year or two and then see how he developed. He's a talented, intriguing prospect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Slappy Mc said: I do think analytics can tell you a lot, but I also think each situation is specific and unique. For example, is there any other team in the NFL where Brock Purdy gets a serious chance and is then chosen over a QB that 3 1sts were used for? Another example would be Jalen Hurts. Now I know that a good deal of teams would take Hurts as their QB, but does he succeed outside of Philly? Then you got all of the QBs taken early that flamed out due to their teams just being terrible. Who knows what Sam Darnold could have been on a decent team? I just don't believe there are as many quality QBs in this draft as others are making it out to be. Certainly any of them could succeed, but none of them are sure things and as I have said before, this new regime has to NAIL their first pick. We cannot afford a bust at any position. Drafting a bust or not drafting a bust at any position is almost uncontrollable. You draft the best college prospect you can and project that they’ll improve and become a great pro but it’s not like an exact science. I don’t know that they have to nail their first pick either for the long term, it certainly helps but say they draft Maye or Daniels & they don’t end up being better than Howell but Howell becomes a top 15/arguably top 10 QB over the next 2 years. Then it’s not the end of the world that the QB who we took at #2 would’ve been a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, RSkinGM said: Rattler -- the next K C .. ?? worth a 3rd if he's there. If we take a QB at #2, we’ll have that QB & Howell. I certainly hope we wouldn’t draft another QB after that unless we’re talking like R7 or something to stash on the practice squad to develop as a future back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RSkinGM Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, turtle28 said: If we take a QB at #2, we’ll have that QB & Howell. I certainly hope we wouldn’t draft another QB after that unless we’re talking like R7 or something to stash on the practice squad to develop as a future back up. No, was thinking if we pass or trade down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) 2 hours ago, e16bball said: I actually think Maye is the toughest to peg because he doesn’t have the obvious carrying trait. He has a great arm, but it’s not God Tier like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Caleb. He’s a good runner, but he’s not Lamar, Fields, Daniels, etc. He’s a very creative playmaker, but again, he’s not Mahomes or Caleb in that department. But he has all those traits, so I think he’s more of an all-around/total package type guy who doesn’t really excel in any area. Maybe that makes him less “special” than the guys with the A+ traits? I’m not sure. I think he probably needs the “high end mental traits” seal of approval more than the other two. Agree with everything you said. It's technically not a "trait", but I think where Maye really excels is in his intermediate passes to the middle of the field, often in tight coverage. And this translates much better to the NFL than the sideline deep shots where Daniels and (to a certain extent) Caleb have separated themselves. When it comes to fit, it's one of the things I'm most wary about in a Kingsbury offense - are we going to properly utilize Maye's ability (if he's the pick) to throw dime after dime to the middle of the field? Kingsbury, and the Air Raid in general, is known for its 4-verts / bubble screen concepts. During his time in Arizona, he didn't attack the intermediate middle of the field area as often as I would like to see; maybe Kyler's height and lack of field vision in the pocket compounded that issue though. If we draft Maye, I really want us to marry the playbook to his best traits / abilities. I'd consider it a massive failure if we don't. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-drake-maye-top-pick-2024-nfl-draft Quote Looking at quarterback performance over the middle of the field tells us a lot. Attacking between the numbers and 10-19 yards downfield consistently yields some of the highest expected points added figures. Having a quarterback who is willing and successful enough to threaten the middle of the field puts a lot of stress on defenses, forcing them into tough decisions in how they deploy their safeties and linebackers. A two-year sample size shows once again that Maye is not only in Daniels and Williams' tier, but also that he is better in many categories. From 2022-2023, Maye’s 102 attempts targeting the intermediate part of the middle of the field were more than Williams’ 83 and Daniels’ 71. Maye’s five big-time throws also bested Williams’ one and Daniel’s zero. The North Carolina signal-caller made three turnover-worthy plays compared to Williams’ three and Daniels’ four, but due to Maye having more attempts over the middle, his turnover-worthy play percentage in this area was the lowest of the three. He also had the highest passer rating, the most first downs and the lowest time to throw. https://www.nfl.com/news/cynthia-frelund-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-bears-pass-on-qb-commanders-land-caleb-williams Quote My models love Maye’s upside for a number of reasons, but one that stands out is the levels/routes he has thrown per computer-vision tracking data. He did not have the most consistent route runners and his ability to connect on many different throw speeds was extremely accurate. His intermediate throws that turned into receptions had a speed variance of about 7 mph. I only looked back for three seasons, but the average for Power Five QBs at the intermediate level is 3.4 mph. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-north-carolina-qb-drake-mayes-scouting-report#:~:text=Maye has that velocity that,the ball into tight windows.&text=He's shown an elite ability,with at least 50 attempts. Quote He’s shown an elite ability to operate in the middle of the field. He had a 94.8 PFF passing grade on throws in between the college hashes, which led all FBS quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. To be a consistent passer over the middle of the field, quarterbacks need to be on time with their progressions, and Maye can do that at a consistently high level. He knows how to hold underneath defenders with his eyes while throwing the ball right behind them with good anticipation. Edited February 9 by HTTRDynasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARTMONK HOF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ken Johannesen Washington has met with Malik Washington many times since the start of draft season. Comm scouts really like him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 hours ago, e16bball said: I doubt it will take that long, because the number of bad teams with no QB who intentionally passed on QB in the top couple picks — in favor of building up a roster — is approaching zero. Maybe Cleveland in 2017? They took Myles Garrett over the top 3 QBs that year. Elite player. Taking him over Trubisky was a great call. But taking him over Mahomes was…why you don’t take a DE over a QB. They got an incredible player. And it’s meant absolutely nothing. Because we’re 7 years into his career, and despite having Myles F. Garrett, they’ve won zero division titles, they’ve only finished second in their division once, and they’ve got one playoff win. Which, incidentally, was won with Baker Mayfield, the QB they eventually drafted #1. And that playoff run ended at the hands of…Patrick Mahomes. Who, just for the record, has never fallen short of the AFC Championship game in his 6 seasons as a starter. The Browns made the playoffs again last year with a gutsy roster, and they rolled out Joe Flacco in the WC game against the #2 pick — and got demolished. Meanwhile, the guy they’d drafted #1 won another playoff game in TB, and then lost a close one to a good Detroit team…and their QB, who was also once drafted #1 (and was acquired via a trade of yet another QB who was drafted #1). Nothing matters in the NFL like elite talent at the QB position. It’s not happenstance that no matter what changes around them, the elite guys are always around at the end. I mean E always comes hard with the facts to back up his argument And this is just another example of why we should take a QB. I will say though that San Fran passed on Trubisky, Mahomes & Watson too in 2017 for Solomon Thomas & they’re in the Super Bowl for the 2nd time in 5 years and they also had an NFCCG game appearance they lost to the Rams 2 years ago. The 49ers also passed on taking a QB in 2019 & took Bosa, which turned out to be the right choice bc the only 1st round QB who’s proven to be worth a 1st round pick on Kyler Murray in that draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 35 minutes ago, ARTMONK HOF said: Ken Johannesen Washington has met with Malik Washington many times since the start of draft season. Comm scouts really like him. Slot WR. Is a return man too? We need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARTMONK HOF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, turtle28 said: Slot WR. Is a return man too? We need that. You draft him, don’t need Samuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts