Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?

[J-ALL-DAY]

The Brees comparison is picking up some steam. Had this one for a while for Purdy...But that's like best case scenario as Brees is an ATG. Some similarities but ways to go to reach Brees level accuracy and anticipation. 

[49ersfan]

We traded 3 1st's and a 3rd for Josh Allen (welp) and may have ended up spending a 7th on Drew Brees instead

I'll allow it 

Edited December 20, 2023 by 49ersfan

[Forge]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Pocket footwork is something Purdy was not always great at last season. This is why I think him not being able to throw in the offseason kind of helped him as he must have spent a lot of time working on his footwork. 

For timing, I may go with Tua over him though. I think pocket presence and processing wise, Purdy is ahead of Tua but man the latter's timing is so elite. 

I think he had Tua as most accurate and quickest release. Unsure if he had Tua for anything else. 

He had Burrow as the best mechanically overall. 

Other niners he had were: 

CMC as most elusive runner and best receiving back 

Brandon Aiyuk best blocking receiver

Deebo: Best RAC (duh lol)

George Kittle: best in line blocker

Nick Bosa: Best speed to power

Trent Williams: Most explosive lineman and best finisher

Fred Warner: Most instinctive linebacker (interestingly didn't do one for best in coverage? I thought that was odd). 

George Odum: Best kick cover man

 

[jonnguy2015]

Up to 16 in Ruiz's rankings!

[Forge]

27 minutes ago, jonnguy2015 said:

Up to 16 in Ruiz's rankings!

The man seriously moved Tom Brady up to #8

He's really not moving Purdy up, either. At least not as much as it looks. He's just taking people off the list. Guys like Daniel Jones and burrow were removed over the  last few weeks and both were higher than Purdy. Same for Kirk. So he still views Purdy as like 17 or whatever. 

Also, how is Gardner minshew's greatest strength pocket presence? Just no. That's routinely mocked in Gen

[TecmoSuperJoe]

Great discussion that pretty much nails what is going on with the national polarization with Brock Purdy's MVP case. 

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by TecmoSuperJoe

[Ftn49]

1 hour ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Great discussion that pretty much nails what is going on with the national polarization with Brock Purdy's MVP case. 

 

Preach Micheal Smith

[J-ALL-DAY]

I enjoyed this article:

Quote

The 49ers do not need, and have never needed, Purdy to be a Top 10 quarterback, and he isn’t. They just need him to not screw things up, and he hasn’t.

Quote

 

There’s a lot of mythmaking surrounding Purdy’s game, but it is fair to say that he’s accurate. He’s 80th percentile in xOnTgt +/- among qualifying quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts, which is pretty good. But, all this fluff about how he’s such a good processor and manages the game so well is just flat-out embellishment.

His turnover-worthy throw rate (3.5%) is pretty bad – 26th percentile – and he doesn’t get the ball out particularly quickly, either. His expected snap to throw +/- (xSTT+/-), which approximates how quickly the quarterback should throw the ball based on his drop (among other factors), is 47th percentile. It’s not horrible, but it’s also not great.

Quote

All this to say, Kyle Shanahan is doing parlor tricks again. Our wins above replacement (WAR) has Purdy 5th – just behind Tua Tagovailoa – at 2.7, and even that might be generous. He’s a decent player capable of functioning within an extremely efficient ecosystem, but that’s not what this award is about. It’s about recognizing players who stand out from all their peers – not just stand out from Jimmy Garoppolo.

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2023/12/21/reiterating-the-statistical-case-against-brock-purdy-for-mvp/

lol.

 

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I enjoyed this article:

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2023/12/21/reiterating-the-statistical-case-against-brock-purdy-for-mvp/

lol.

 

Don't hate it. The tua/Purdy thing is very easy to understand. 

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, Forge said:

Don't hate it. The tua/Purdy thing is very easy to understand. 

There's flaws to the stats he's picking to use and and tried to repeat the point about Purdy just doing enough and not try to screw it up. Huh? Then he says he's not even that good of a processor and uses the amount of time it takes him to throw. Again, that's a dumb argument and you can process while taking more than 2 seconds to get rid of the ball. It also does not take into consideration his pocket presence and how he is able to buy time. And some of the statistical arguments he is making against Purdy, he can list them for Mahomes last year. After all, how exactly did the Chiefs lead the league in YAC and had one of the highest uncontested rates in the league with the weapons they had? The system and Reid had nothing to do with that? 

It's just another one of those Steven Ruiz cherry pick rip offs. It's fine not to think Purdy is an MVP but when you say his only job is to not screw it up, then it is clear you are not watching the games or understanding what you are watching. 

[JIllg]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

Don't hate it. The tua/Purdy thing is very easy to understand. 

 

Yeah, this is quite useful information that tries to provide some objective data that explains some of the subjective vibes folks get around Purdy and I definitely take it as a useful data point.

[John232]

Lombardi getting dragged by my queen https://x.com/minakimes/status/1737848174063268109?s=46

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

35 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

There's flaws to the stats he's picking to use and and tried to repeat the point about Purdy just doing enough and not try to screw it up. Huh? Then he says he's not even that good of a processor and uses the amount of time it takes him to throw. Again, that's a dumb argument and you can process while taking more than 2 seconds to get rid of the ball. It also does not take into consideration his pocket presence and how he is able to buy time. And some of the statistical arguments he is making against Purdy, he can list them for Mahomes last year. After all, how exactly did the Chiefs lead the league in YAC and had one of the highest uncontested rates in the league with the weapons they had? The system and Reid had nothing to do with that? 

It's just another one of those Steven Ruiz cherry pick rip offs. It's fine not to think Purdy is an MVP but when you say his only job is to not screw it up, then it is clear you are not watching the games or understanding what you are watching. 

Yeah, not sure how anybody could watch Purdy and not notice how quickly he gets the ball out.  

Time to throw is not a way to measure processing speed.  It's like, two different things.  This guy is clearly not watching.

These are arbitrary assigned values on plays being mis-logged, mis-read, or simply a flawed algorithm.  

It's not whether or not people think he is the MVP, it is the disrespect and double standards that sucks.  It's not like people are calling Lamar Jackson a glorified kick returner who can't read a defense.  

[Forge]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

There's flaws to the stats he's picking to use and and tried to repeat the point about Purdy just doing enough and not try to screw it up. Huh? Then he says he's not even that good of a processor and uses the amount of time it takes him to throw. Again, that's a dumb argument and you can process while taking more than 2 seconds to get rid of the ball. It also does not take into consideration his pocket presence and how he is able to buy time. And some of the statistical arguments he is making against Purdy, he can list them for Mahomes last year. After all, how exactly did the Chiefs lead the league in YAC and had one of the highest uncontested rates in the league with the weapons they had? The system and Reid had nothing to do with that? 

It's just another one of those Steven Ruiz cherry pick rip offs. It's fine not to think Purdy is an MVP but when you say his only job is to not screw it up, then it is clear you are not watching the games or understanding what you are watching. 

To be clear, there are not flaws to the stats, there are flaws to the interpretation of said stats in some regards and the data itself is incomplete (I take this back - there was one statistical flaw. People commonly use PFF's TWP as turnover worthy throws and that's not the stat....TWP from PFF is turnover worthy plays incorporates fumbles). Statistics are often cherry picked because the data required to create the full picture would require a much larger article lol.

You can pile context and nuance over and over again. Like, Purdy's time to throw is his time to throw, that's objective. It is what it is. His pressure rate is what it is. What we know is that it's largely average right now. His offensive line isn't awful any more either.  Pass protection for the team has gotten much better as the season has worn on and his time to throw has increased. The context would come from the fact that he was unloading the ball obscenely quick in the first five weeks of the season when he really needed to, so we know he can do it quickly when he needs to. He hasn't needed to the last few weeks and as such, he's taken more time. Unsurprisingly, this has also resulted in his TWP decreasing substantially the last few weeks (the exception being the games we lost, where obviously you're going to gamble more). Additional context would be, "hey, Tua throws nearly 25% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, I wonder why it seems like he is so quick to process?". Purdy, in contrast has the 4th lowest percentage of passes made behind the line of scrimmage (roughly 13-14%). 

He's providing some objective data, he's interpreting some of it poorly in my opinion, but that's on him. I feel like he's also focusing on the negative without representing the positive, but that's not surprising given that he wanted to write an article about Purdy not statistically being an MVP guy.  Ruiz's figure about his epa without throws beyond the line is legit. That's okay. The context that is ignored is that he's still #1  or #2 in epa on throws down the field at any depth lol. EPA is also more of an team offense stat rather than a QB stat even though we often use it for the latter. That's okay to admit as well.

I agree with you that time to throw has nothing to do with processing the field. Everyone (except Ruiz) thinks he processes the game insanely fast, as do I. JTO has made me aware of this blind spot for the deep post corner / corner / flag route, but otherwise I think he's regularly seeing the field pre and post snap obscenely well. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

19 minutes ago, Forge said:

To be clear, there are not flaws to the stats, there are flaws to the interpretation of said stats in some regards and the data itself is incomplete (I take this back - there was one statistical flaw. People commonly use PFF's TWP as turnover worthy throws and that's not the stat....TWP from PFF is turnover worthy plays incorporates fumbles). Statistics are often cherry picked because the data required to create the full picture would require a much larger article lol.

You can pile context and nuance over and over again. Like, Purdy's time to throw is his time to throw, that's objective. It is what it is. His pressure rate is what it is. What we know is that it's largely average right now. His offensive line isn't awful any more either.  Pass protection for the team has gotten much better as the season has worn on and his time to throw has increased. The context would come from the fact that he was unloading the ball obscenely quick in the first five weeks of the season when he really needed to, so we know he can do it quickly when he needs to. He hasn't needed to the last few weeks and as such, he's taken more time. Unsurprisingly, this has also resulted in his TWP decreasing substantially the last few weeks (the exception being the games we lost, where obviously you're going to gamble more). Additional context would be, "hey, Tua throws nearly 25% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, I wonder why it seems like he is so quick to process?". Purdy, in contrast has the 4th lowest percentage of passes made behind the line of scrimmage (roughly 13-14%). 

He's providing some objective data, he's interpreting some of it poorly in my opinion, but that's on him. I feel like he's also focusing on the negative without representing the positive, but that's not surprising given that he wanted to write an article about Purdy not statistically being an MVP guy.  Ruiz's figure about his epa without throws beyond the line is legit. That's okay. The context that is ignored is that he's still #1  or #2 in epa on throws down the field at any depth lol. EPA is also more of an team offense stat rather than a QB stat even though we often use it for the latter. That's okay to admit as well.

I agree with you that time to throw has nothing to do with processing the field. Everyone (except Ruiz) thinks he processes the game insanely fast, as do I. JTO has made me aware of this blind spot for the deep post corner / corner / flag route, but otherwise I think he's regularly seeing the field pre and post snap obscenely well. 

Right, I've already called out Ruiz referencing PFF's TWP stat incorrectly and I was going to check if this guy used the same stat. Because if he did, then TWP =/= turnover worthy passes. It references turnover worthy plays. Even that is questionable as PFF had Brock having one TWP and I just can't recall what the hell they used for that. They had him down for having one last week and even that is pushing it but at least you can somewhat argue it since the DB got his hands on the ball. 

This guy threw a lot of stats out with no context. Isn't that the argument against Purdy being MVP where folks say the numbers look good but his play isn't as good as the numbers? Then he came to conclusion that Purdy is just being asked to not screw it up. I'm sorry, but I just don't take articles like this serious when you make statements like that and incorrectly reference certain stats. Again, run those separation/yac stats for Mahomes from 2022. Let's have a real comparison and see how much different Purdy's numbers are in those two particular areas. 

Saying he is not all that fast of a processor and using the time to throw is something I have NEVER seen before. So was Purdy a fast processor earlier in the season and became a lesser processor once the OL started to play better? 

What exactly am I supposed to take from his article?