Forge Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 I think you can pretty comfortably book Purdy for 53-55 million a year next season 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 2 hours ago, Forge said: I think you can pretty comfortably book Purdy for 53-55 million a year next season If he has another year like last year, I am pretty comfortable with paying him. He was good in 2022, but he was even better in 2023. I dont expect another jump from him like he had last year, but if he improves? We will be the 1 seed again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 8 minutes ago, N4L said: If he has another year like last year, I am pretty comfortable with paying him. He was good in 2022, but he was even better in 2023. I dont expect another jump from him like he had last year, but if he improves? We will be the 1 seed again. It's just the way the league works. QBs get the bag. It's not even about whether I'm comfortable or not doing it. It's an inevitability, so it really doesn't matter. People will find out what Purdy a couple years after he gets paid, one way or the other. He should always be able to put up Jimmy numbers though. That 2019 offense was pretty good and didn't have nearly the weaponry that this team has, so even as these guys age out, I think Purdy will be fine. The bump Kyle gives is legit 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 21 hours ago, Forge said: It's just the way the league works. QBs get the bag. It's not even about whether I'm comfortable or not doing it. It's an inevitability, so it really doesn't matter. People will find out what Purdy a couple years after he gets paid, one way or the other. He should always be able to put up Jimmy numbers though. That 2019 offense was pretty good and didn't have nearly the weaponry that this team has, so even as these guys age out, I think Purdy will be fine. The bump Kyle gives is legit I am comfortable in saying also that Purdy is better than Jimmy. Forget the small sample size downfield stuff from last year that was Aiyuk dependent and could definitely be fluky - Brock just avoids more sacks and is less vulnerable to pressure. This at least makes him more likely to function in playoff environments with imperfect situations, while Jimmy just really struggled against better than average defenses. Plus, even as a rookie, Brock had a higher TD rate and really upped the team's average in the red zone. Brock could still use a touch of work to get to Jimmy's spot on the shorter stuff, but I think that you make the trade every day even if you ignore the big time throws and downfield stuff that Brock can possibly bring if last year's sample was predictive. Therefore, I think the floor is Jimmy with meaningful incremental improvements. Maybe a similar or slightly higher YPA, but with better red zone numbers and less vulnerability to good defenses that leads to more points and more feelings of smoothness on offense. I think folks get wrapped up in the order in which to rank guys - that's going to always be super hard with Purdy until he isn't with Shanahan. But I feel quite comfortable in saying that the offense will still be a top 10 unit with cheaper parts as long as Purdy and Shanahan are here and things aren't utterly barren. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757-NINER Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 (edited) On 6/18/2024 at 11:36 AM, JIllg said: I am comfortable in saying also that Purdy is better than Jimmy. Forget the small sample size downfield stuff from last year that was Aiyuk dependent and could definitely be fluky - Brock just avoids more sacks and is less vulnerable to pressure. This at least makes him more likely to function in playoff environments with imperfect situations, while Jimmy just really struggled against better than average defenses. Plus, even as a rookie, Brock had a higher TD rate and really upped the team's average in the red zone. Brock could still use a touch of work to get to Jimmy's spot on the shorter stuff, but I think that you make the trade every day even if you ignore the big time throws and downfield stuff that Brock can possibly bring if last year's sample was predictive. Therefore, I think the floor is Jimmy with meaningful incremental improvements. Maybe a similar or slightly higher YPA, but with better red zone numbers and less vulnerability to good defenses that leads to more points and more feelings of smoothness on offense. I think folks get wrapped up in the order in which to rank guys - that's going to always be super hard with Purdy until he isn't with Shanahan. But I feel quite comfortable in saying that the offense will still be a top 10 unit with cheaper parts as long as Purdy and Shanahan are here and things aren't utterly barren. Totally agree. Shanny & Brock are the pieces that matter the most, offensively. All the other pieces that orbit them can be replaced or exchanged but the gravitational pull will always align with those two, specifically. Kittle, Deebo, CMC, BA, Juice, Jennings are all REALLY good players. But none of them are irreplaceable, imo. As long as both Shanny & Brock can function at a pretty high level, we should be in the thick of things consistently. That's what above average QB play, along with great scheming/play-calling will afford you in an offensive-driven league. Our investments in player capital will always be titled towards the defense. Lynch will always look to keep that unit in the Top 5 conversation, simply because Shanny has the capability to do more with less. And now with the emergence of Brock, that fact is only further exemplified. Edited June 19 by 757-NINER 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Guess I missed this, but a 49ers YT channel made a 40+ minute video of every one of Glock's completions in 2023 in the regular season. Even though these are just highlights and it's easy to get tunnel vision, a lot of the throws are pretty impressive. The channel also has every one of his playoff completions, and rushing completions. Good way to burn some time this offseason. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vPX3GKB6Dw&t=2s 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757-NINER Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phinsesq Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Hindsight being 2020, if the 2022 nfl draft was to reoccur, Purdy would easily be the 1st QB taken and in round 1. To me that says he is “actually” good. Compare him to the 2021 draft which had a bunch of QB needy teams, outside of Trevor Lawrence I believe he is the second QB taken in that draft and there is argument to select him over Lawrence. My vote, the guy is good. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Purdy 4 in the NFC. I'd wager that execs have him around 11-13 then for the NFL as a whole. Fowler said top ten dominated by AFC, rightfully so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757-NINER Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 2 hours ago, Forge said: Purdy 4 in the NFC. I'd wager that execs have him around 11-13 then for the NFL as a whole. Fowler said top ten dominated by AFC, rightfully so. Ranking Dak & Goff over Brock is just complete madness.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 (edited) Surprise, surprise the guy with the big arm entices the scribes, and pundits at large. Edited July 14 by TecmoSuperJoe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 22 hours ago, 757-NINER said: Ranking Dak & Goff over Brock is just complete madness.... Goff and Brock have different attributes in how they get there, but I view them in the same tier for the most part. Dak is much more interesting because his playoff performances weigh him down so much. If we are just going regular season, I have no problem with him over Brock. He's got multiple tremendous regular seasons and coming off a year where he was a legit MVP candidate as well and ended up with the 2nd team all pro nod. Given that playoffs are volatile and smallish samples, doesn't surprise me if people don't always put the most stock in them and a greater number of people would take Dak over Purdy in a must win situation. I have no issues with anyone picking either over Brock, though I think the recent Goff love (#9 overall per these NFL guys and #2 NFC) is a little bit in overload. But if that tier goes from say 9-14 for a person, it makes more sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 10 minutes ago, Forge said: Goff and Brock have different attributes in how they get there, but I view them in the same tier for the most part. Dak is much more interesting because his playoff performances weigh him down so much. If we are just going regular season, I have no problem with him over Brock. He's got multiple tremendous regular seasons and coming off a year where he was a legit MVP candidate as well and ended up with the 2nd team all pro nod. Given that playoffs are volatile and smallish samples, doesn't surprise me if people don't always put the most stock in them and a greater number of people would take Dak over Purdy in a must win situation. I have no issues with anyone picking either over Brock, though I think the recent Goff love (#9 overall per these NFL guys and #2 NFC) is a little bit in overload. But if that tier goes from say 9-14 for a person, it makes more sense. I don't think that there is any case to rank Goff in the same tier as Purdy given our (admittedly small) sample size. CPOE for Brock was an excellent 5% over expected, Goff a barely starting QB quality 1%. Purdy had a big time throw rate of 5.5 alongside the attacking QBs like Love and Stroud, Goff 3.3% alongside Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young. Brock was the best QB in the NFL in terms of DVOA under pressure, Goff was 23rd next to Carr and Mac Jones. Also, outside of the pocket passer grade scores while scrambling - Goff is terrible and Purdy posted among the highest in the NFL. In shorthand, when you want your quarterback to do anything meaningfully difficult, you can't ask Goff to do it. But he is better than Purdy at doing the simple attacking underneath to open targets thing. It isn't nothing, but it sure ain't Purdy. Dak is a more interesting case for the reasons that you've discussed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 21 hours ago, JIllg said: I don't think that there is any case to rank Goff in the same tier as Purdy given our (admittedly small) sample size. CPOE for Brock was an excellent 5% over expected, Goff a barely starting QB quality 1%. Purdy had a big time throw rate of 5.5 alongside the attacking QBs like Love and Stroud, Goff 3.3% alongside Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young. Brock was the best QB in the NFL in terms of DVOA under pressure, Goff was 23rd next to Carr and Mac Jones. Also, outside of the pocket passer grade scores while scrambling - Goff is terrible and Purdy posted among the highest in the NFL. In shorthand, when you want your quarterback to do anything meaningfully difficult, you can't ask Goff to do it. But he is better than Purdy at doing the simple attacking underneath to open targets thing. It isn't nothing, but it sure ain't Purdy. Dak is a more interesting case for the reasons that you've discussed. I'd take Purdy over Goff, mainly for what he does against pressure, but not by enough to really make me care about it. People want to take Goff over him, I wouldn't care. If he's a nimble goff, I'm fine with that. Goff is a good, not great. The problem with using statistics on Purdy (besides the small sample, which you alluded to) is that Purdy just put an all time great statistical season up and that's really the only lens we have to view him through. Quite a bit of it is simply unsustainable. So we really don't have a baseline for Purdy where as we kind of do have a pretty good understanding of what a guy like Goff is. We are still guessing what his baseline is ultimately going to be, so it's all guess work. That's why I was very much in Brock's corner for MVP though, because I don't think people realized just how difficult that season was to put up. But it is very possible that his best two years in his career will be last year and this upcoming year. Goff's first two years under McVay were really, really good as well. But there are things with Purdy that just aren't going to be sustainable. The Y/A and ANY/A are not sustainable even with the Shanny bump. I would suspect him stay among the league leaders while he's with Shanny, but 9.6 and 9.01? Those are not numbers that will be replicable for most of his career (I suspect he'll stay close this year though...maybe like 9.1 and 8.2 or something). Last year we talked about Purdy's intermediate passing rate being unsustainable (80% completion percentage). This year it dipped to like 67%, which is still like top 3 in the league and absolutely elite. But this year we are going to have a new version of that - his deep passing. Last year Purdy completed 63.8% of his passes 20 yards or more down the field. I don't know if anyone understands how bat**** bonkers unsustainable that is (side note: you know how's been a sneaky good down field thrower over his career? Nick Mullens. Kind of wild). There have been several seasons since 2010 where the league leader in completion percentage on 20 yard passes is under 50%. Since 2010, I have found exactly 0 people who have completed 60% of their passes 20 or more yards down the field besides Purdy (min 40 attempts down field). The second highest I have found was CJ Stroud at 56% this year lol. Tua was 54% two years ago and Alex Smith was 53% in 2017 . So this is a maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaassive outlier. Joe Burrow has completed 40% of these passes once in his career over a season. Mahomes has hit 50% once in his career. It's going to normalize and it's not going to do so at 64%. And it's really not going to have anything to do with him getting worse. Hell, he could get better. That's just the nature of the beast. I don't think you make money betting on outliers. To use a hockey term, Purdy was kind of on a PDO bender with his deep passing last year. Now, I don't know how big of a deal that is in the long run, but obviously it starts to pull on some of these historical numbers. If you start losing league leading YAC and get guys more in line with league averages, that could hurt as well....but we have no idea where this baseline is ultimately going to be. Ultimately, I think Purdy likely ends up in the good, not great QB tier which is where I have guys like Goff, Kyler, etc. But we will see. So much more data is needed, especially given how absurd that last year was lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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