Let's talk Bryce Young

[Soggust]

1 minute ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

I just don’t think it’d be smart to move on from a top 10-13 QB. We have been *** for so long and now on the verge of B2B division titles for the first time in 25 years. He didn’t have the year I was expecting but he’s still a solid QB. Not the generational guy everyone labeled him as but I would give him 5/200 and be happy with it. 
 

 

I'm not even trying to trash Lawrence, like usual. Let's agree for a moment he's a top 10-13 QB, just for argument's sake. 

That feels awfully close to where Goff was when he was shipped to DET. 

I personally 100% agree with you that he's a fine QB who's probably theoretically capable of getting you to the SB, but then again, most fans of teams in that situation are upset that "they can't get over the hump with this guy" and "would rather tank for picks to get a real elite gamechanger". Goff, Baker, D Jones, like....all of them are going to be moved on from despite high draft status and similar stats, even though 2/3 have proven to be capable-ish starters in the league. All 3, I would imagine, would also be considered busts compared to where they were taken, by the fanbases who selected them.

So when you take a guy #1 overall (especially when you trade up for him), I just think most fan's expectations are simply above reasonable. 

[LinderFournette]

Hes getting the Trevor Lawrence treatment except his LT is Complete garbage and should be a guard

[jrry32]

5 hours ago, Soggust said:

I'm jumping in a bit late and haven't decided my position yet, but would you have this same perspective on all first year QBs? Say, Desmond Ridder?

 

Man idk if I love this example. Goff got shipped out of town and Lawrence is likely next if he doesn't perform in his prove-it year next year. I don't think that's the benchmark Panthers fans are hoping for with Young.

Desmond Ridder isn't a rookie QB. It's an apples to oranges comparison.

Goff got "shipped out of town" after leading the Rams to four straight winning seasons (their first winning season since 2003), three playoff appearances (their first playoff appearance since 2004), and a Super Bowl appearance (their first since 2001). He's now QBing the Lions who are also winning, and he's providing fringe top 10 QB play.

As for Trevor, he's yet another example of people not getting that QB progression isn't linear. He was very good last year, even leading the Jaguars to a playoff win. He's playing well enough this year for the Jaguars to be currently leading their division and one win away from the playoffs again. 

But those two are hardly the only successful QBs to struggle as rookies. They're simply two recent #1 picks who did and overcame it.

[jrry32]

4 hours ago, Soggust said:

I'm not even trying to trash Lawrence, like usual. Let's agree for a moment he's a top 10-13 QB, just for argument's sake. 

That feels awfully close to where Goff was when he was shipped to DET. 

I personally 100% agree with you that he's a fine QB who's probably theoretically capable of getting you to the SB, but then again, most fans of teams in that situation are upset that "they can't get over the hump with this guy" and "would rather tank for picks to get a real elite gamechanger". Goff, Baker, D Jones, like....all of them are going to be moved on from despite high draft status and similar stats, even though 2/3 have proven to be capable-ish starters in the league. All 3, I would imagine, would also be considered busts compared to where they were taken, by the fanbases who selected them.

So when you take a guy #1 overall (especially when you trade up for him), I just think most fan's expectations are simply above reasonable. 

Picking #1 doesn't guarantee you Patrick Mahomes. That's simply the reality of the situation. If Bryce Young becomes a fringe top 10 QB, the Panthers have done well enough.

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

But those two are hardly the only successful QBs to struggle as rookies. They're simply two recent #1 picks who did and overcame it.

Yeah, I think we just have different definitions of "overcame it". If we are talking about "played better than a terrible rookie year", sure that's fair. If it's "proved themselves worth the #1 overall pick", I simply don't agree.

I don't think the LAR are spending multiple picks to send Goff to DET if he was worth the 1.1 and even Jags fans are tempering expectations on the generational hype that Trevor came into the league with. 

Neither is a Jamarcus Russell bust, sure, but neither one is an elite QB either. 

 

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

Picking #1 doesn't guarantee you Patrick Mahomes. That's simply the reality of the situation. If Bryce Young becomes a fringe top 10 QB, the Panthers have done well enough.

It doesn't, but that's the expectation. I think most fanbases are hoping for a top 3-5 QB ceiling when picking 1.1

And I assume you will reply by saying most expectations are overexaggerated, which I will be forced to agree with.

But you're actually going even further here by suggesting it's "well enough" to trade 2 1sts, 2 2nds, + DJ Moore for.....a fringe top 10 QB?

It's not just that they picked 1.1, they gave up the farm for the dude.

 

[jrry32]

47 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Yeah, I think we just have different definitions of "overcame it". If we are talking about "played better than a terrible rookie year", sure that's fair. If it's "proved themselves worth the #1 overall pick", I simply don't agree.

I don't think the LAR are spending multiple picks to send Goff to DET if he was worth the 1.1 and even Jags fans are tempering expectations on the generational hype that Trevor came into the league with. Neither is a Jamarcus Russell bust, sure, but neither one is an elite QB either. 

LAR spent multiple picks to trade for Matthew Stafford, not to send Goff to Detroit. And I see you avoided the point that Goff is currently providing roughly top 10 QB play. He's a QB basically on par with what Matt Ryan was for his career. Not an elite QB, but certainly a worthwhile one who can help you win football games.

You keep talking about "elite" QBs. There are a handful of elite QBs per generation. There is a #1 pick every year. Anybody who thinks that a #1 pick has to be an elite QB is misguided. How many elite QBs are there in the NFL right now?

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It doesn't, but that's the expectation. I think most fanbases are hoping for a top 3-5 QB ceiling when picking 1.1

I expect fanbases are hoping for a top 3-5 QB with any first round pick. I'm going to state the obvious here, but it's worth saying: there are only five top 5 QBs in the NFL at any given time. There is a #1 pick every single year. If that's your expectation, it's your fault for not being realistic.

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And I assume you will reply by saying most expectations are overexaggerated, which I will be forced to agree with.

Okay. Perfect. So why are you making this argument?

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But you're actually going even further here by suggesting it's "well enough" to trade 2 1sts, 2 2nds, + DJ Moore for.....a fringe top 10 QB?

It's not just that they picked 1.1, they gave up the farm for the dude.

 

No, I'm suggesting that the Panthers traded that for a QB who could POTENTIALLY be elite. If he only ends up being a fringe top 10 QB, you accept it. Because that sort of QB is still worth a lot. Ask all the teams that lack QBs.

[Soggust]

17 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

LAR spent multiple picks to trade for Matthew Stafford, not to send Goff to Detroit. And I see you avoided the point that Goff is currently providing roughly top 10 QB play. He's a QB basically on par with what Matt Ryan was for his career. Not an elite QB, but certainly a worthwhile one who can help you win football games.

I'm not trying to avoid it at all, my friend. I just don't want to go down a rabbit hole on a strawman.

I make the argument that Goff was traded with picks for a 33-year old career top 10ish QB. You tell me how great Stafford was. I discredit Stafford's value at the time, you disagree, we get nowhere, and it does nothing for the Bryce Young conversation. 

And honestly, even if we simply agree that Goff is playing good - the point is irrelevant because I don't think Panthers fans are excited to justify Bryce Young's selection because they traded a bunch of picks to get rid of him and he went to another team and turned into a productive QB.

 

29 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

No, I'm suggesting that the Panthers traded that for a QB who could POTENTIALLY be elite. If he only ends up being a fringe top 10 QB, you accept it. Because that sort of QB is still worth a lot. Ask all the teams that lack QBs.

But the Rams didn't accept it with Goff? They traded a king's ransom to not accept it, right? 

In fact, I'm having trouble thinking of a team who has been happy with consistently borderline top 10 QB play for a stretch of time.

And I'm just saying Trevor doesn't seem like a victory lap to me. I'm not sure he's even a fringe top 10, unless you are factoring in potential (like, if you only considered his stats). Which means, at this point, a fringe top 10 QB is kind of what we are HOPING he is.

Which again was my only point - Goff and Lawrence don't seem like great examples of what the Panthers should be hoping for in Bryce. 

I'll respectfully just have to agree to disagree that most fans are happy with a fringe top 10 player at the position when they take them 1.1, much less what the Panthers traded. Bryce has been a clear disappointment and hopefully he can turn it around and be great, but the red flags are certainly waving after a season like this.

[jrry32]

1 minute ago, Soggust said:

I'm not trying to avoid it at all, my friend. I just don't want to go down a rabbit hole on a strawman.

I make the argument that Goff was traded with picks for a 33-year old career top 10ish QB. You tell me how great Stafford was. I discredit Stafford's value at the time, you disagree, we get nowhere, and it does nothing for the Bryce Young conversation. And honestly, even if we simply agree that Goff is playing good - the point is irrelevant because I don't think Panthers fans are excited to justify Bryce Young's selection because they traded a bunch of picks to get rid of him and he went to another team and turned into a productive QB.

I think the Panthers will be quite okay if Bryce Young leads them to multiple playoff appearances and a Super Bowl appearance and then is traded for a QB who wins them a Super Bowl. But you'll have to ask them.

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But the Rams didn't accept it with Goff? They traded a king's ransom to not accept it, right? 

In fact, I'm having trouble thinking of a team who has been happy with consistently borderline top 10 QB play for a stretch of time.

 

You joking? I literally just mentioned a guy who had a very long career with one team.

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And I'm just saying Trevor doesn't seem like a victory lap to me. I'm not sure he's even a fringe top 10, unless you are factoring in potential (like, if you only considered his stats). Which means, at this point, a fringe top 10 QB is kind of what we are HOPING he is.

Which again was my only point - Goff and Lawrence don't seem like great examples of what the Panthers should be hoping for in Bryce. 

I'll respectfully just have to agree to disagree that most fans are happy with a fringe top 10 player at the position when they take them 1.1, much less what the Panthers traded. Bryce has been a clear disappointment and hopefully he can turn it around and be great, but the red flags are certainly waving after a season like this.

 

Cool. The Rams are doing well. The Jaguars are doing well. Neither team seems to regret the decisions they made. I don't much care what the Panthers are hoping for. My point was that plenty of QBs who ultimately panned out struggled as rookies, including recent #1 picks. You can continue battling against your straw man.

[Soggust]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

You joking? I literally just mentioned a guy who had a very long career with one team.

You mentioned a guy who won MVP during that span. 

Yes, if Bryce wins the MVP, it will be worth the pick. 

lol

[jrry32]

4 minutes ago, Soggust said:

You mentioned a guy who won MVP during that span. 

Yes, if Bryce wins the MVP, it will be worth the pick. 

lol

With Kyle Shanahan and an elite supporting cast. As I said, have fun arguing with your straw man.

[Rich7sena]

I think Bryce Young will eventually be at least "okay" (i.e., he won't be Zach Wilson). One of the toughest things with his evaluation is he did not have a good high-level comp for the NFL. I kept seeing Teddy Bridgewater.

[Soggust]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

With Kyle Shanahan and an elite supporting cast. As I said, have fun arguing with your straw man.

That's not what a straw man is.

You told me that you provided an example of a player playing fringe top 10 level QB over a long period of time, by providing an example of a guy who won the ******* league MVP.

You're either not following the conversation or not debating in good faith, but either way your snarky responses tell me you're prolly not someone I want to talk sports with, so I'm sorry for ever questioning your example.

[jrry32]

1 minute ago, Soggust said:

That's not what a straw man is.

You told me that you provided an example of a player playing fringe top 10 level QB over a long period of time, by providing an example of a guy who won the ******* league MVP.

You're either not following the conversation or not debating in good faith, but either way your snarky responses tell me you're prolly not someone I want to talk sports with, so I'm sorry for ever questioning your example.

I am happy to explain:

Jrry32: "We won't be able to determine what sort of QB Bryce Young will be based off his rookie year. The circumstances were too poor. We'll have to wait and see. Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence are two examples of former #1 picks who struggled as rookies and then turned it around after their situation improved."

Soggust: "But aren't the expectations for a #1 pick higher than Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence. So those aren't good examples."

That's a straw man. I wasn't discussing expectations. They're entirely subjective and irrelevant to me. My point was solely that Bryce is capable of turning it around and we'll have to see what he becomes. So don't come complaining to me about "good faith" when you started off this discussion with a logical fallacy. And when I tried to meet you on your terms and explain why expectations are irrelevant, you then distorted my points and accused me of creating a straw man lol. So you'll have to excuse me if I was snarky in responding to your accusation.

And for the love of god, man, Matt Ryan had been QB in Atlanta for nearly a decade before his MVP season. They were content with him before the MVP. How long did the Raiders give Derek Carr? How long did Cincy stick by Andy Dalton? And Dalton wasn't even fringe top 10. Nor was Carr for much of his career. I'll throw out another example: Kirk Cousins. Do you think Washington is happy they let him go? How did that pan out for them? I could go on. There are plenty of other QBs who played for a long time for a single team without ever being elite (Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Donovan McNabb, etc.).

Plus, if we're going to talk about Ryan's MVP, the simple truth is that if you give a good QB an elite play-caller and a great supporting cast, they can post that sort of production. Look at what Kyle Shanahan is doing now with Brock Purdy. Look what production he got out of Jimmy Garoppolo, a guy who lost his job in Oakland to Rod Farva. Look at what Tua has done in Miami under Mike McDaniel. Hell, Jared Goff was putting up MVP-level production through the first 11 games in 2018. He even outdueled Patrick Mahomes. It was the same Matt Ryan the whole time.

[Soggust]

41 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I am happy to explain:

Jrry32: "We won't be able to determine what sort of QB Bryce Young will be based off his rookie year. The circumstances were too poor. We'll have to wait and see. Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence are two examples of former #1 picks who struggled as rookies and then turned it around after their situation improved."

Soggust: "But aren't the expectations for a #1 pick higher than Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence. So those aren't good examples."

That's a straw man. I wasn't discussing expectations. They're entirely subjective and irrelevant to me. My point was solely that Bryce is capable of turning it around and we'll have to see what he becomes. So don't come complaining to me about "good faith" when you started off this discussion with a logical fallacy.

But that's not a straw man lol.

When you mentioned Bryce potentially turning it around, I questioned what the definition of turning it around is. I even quite literally said : 

3 hours ago, Soggust said:

If we are talking about "played better than a terrible rookie year", sure that's fair. If it's "proved themselves worth the #1 overall pick", I simply don't agree.

Then the conversation became about expectations of a #1 pick. If you don't care or are content with a mediocre QB or just don't want to have that conversation, fair enough. But we were still on the topic of what Bryce needs to look like in the next couple years to avoid the bust label.

 

41 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

And when I tried to meet you on your terms and explain why expectations are irrelevant, you then distorted my points and accused me of creating a straw man lol.

No, I quite literally didn't. I said that >>> I <<< didn't want to go down the rabbit hole on a strawman take by starting a long debate about why they traded Goff for Stafford, if you were going to make the case that the Rams were content with Goff.

As in, >>> I <<< didn't want to divert the conversation into something that wasn't my point, or the point of the thread. 

 

41 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

 

And for the love of god, man, Matt Ryan had been QB in Atlanta for nearly a decade before his MVP season. They were content with him before the MVP. How long did the Raiders give Derek Carr? How long did Cincy stick by Andy Dalton? And Dalton wasn't even fringe top 10. Nor was Carr for much of his career. I'll throw out another example: Kirk Cousins. Do you think Washington is happy they let him go? How did that pan out for them? I could go on. There are plenty of other QBs who played for a long time for a single team without ever being elite (Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Donovan McNabb, etc.).

I simply don't think any of those QBs you just named would be considered a successful pick at 1.1, even without what CAR gave up for Bryce, sans Ryan, who was an MVP and had 3 Pro Bowls prior and was definitely closer to the 5-10 range than Derek Carr or Dalton or the other examples.

If you disagree, fair enough. 

 

41 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Plus, if we're going to talk about Ryan's MVP, the simple truth is that if you give a good QB an elite play-caller and a great supporting cast, they can post that sort of production. Look at what Kyle Shanahan is doing now with Brock Purdy. Look what production he got out of Jimmy Garoppolo, a guy who lost his job in Oakland to Rod Farva. Look at what Tua has done in Miami under Mike McDaniel. Hell, Jared Goff was putting up MVP-level production through the first 11 games in 2018. He even outdueled Patrick Mahomes. It was the same Matt Ryan the whole time.

Again, >> I << don't want to strawman this conversation by making it about Ryan, but he had a productive year in 2018 (and others) without Kyle. I tend to think you're underselling Ryan tbh and I also disagree with a lot of the Shanahan take but again, if I chase it down, >> I << 'm the one derailing the conversation.

So again - 100% non-sarcastically - I am truthfully sorry I questioned your example.

I just felt like talking about hoping he can be a fringe top 10 QB after the first year seemed like a major red flag.

 

Edited January 2 by Soggust

[jrry32]

14 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Then the conversation became about expectations of a #1 pick. If you don't care or are content with a mediocre QB or just don't want to have that conversation, fair enough. But we were still on the topic of what Bryce needs to look like in the next couple years to avoid the bust label.

I just felt like talking about hoping he can be a fringe top 10 QB after the first year seemed like a major red flag.

 

I appreciate the post. I apologize for being snarky and my sharp elbows in my responses. Looks like we're talking past each other. Two final points:

1. We have very different perspectives on what constitutes a bust. I don't consider a three-time Pro Bowler (at 29) like Goff to be a bust. Nor do I see Trevor Lawrence as a bust. Hell, Lawrence isn't even in his prime yet. QB progress isn't linear. For all we know, he comes back next year and posts a top 5 season. As for Goff, he is in his prime and is playing quality football.

2. One of our disconnects is I'm not talking about hopes. I have no doubt that Panthers fans hope Bryce Young turns into the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. I'm simply thinking about what does turning things around look like for Young. And yes, I think Goff or Lawrence have provided acceptable play from a #1 pick. It seems clear at this point you and I don't agree on that.