BDL 2023 Week 5 - Camden Hood Rats @ Cuba Smugglers

[RedGold]

BDL 2023 Week 5

Match:  Camden Hood Rats @ Cuba Smugglers

Away Owner: @TedLavie

Home Owner: @MD4L

Vote for who you think would win the game.

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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[RedGold]

Camden

QB Baker Mayfield
RB Khalil Herbert
WR AJ Brown
WR Nico Collins
WR Cooper Kupp
TE Tyler Higbee
LT Dion Dawkins
LG Quentin Nelson
C Cody Whitehair
RG Teven Jenkins
RT Lane Johnson

Bench
RB Zach Moss
RB Jerrick McKinnon
WR Gabe Davis
WR Rashid Shaheed
TE Gerald Everett 
TE Kyle Pitts
OL Zach Tom (Q)
OL Quinn Meinerz

 

RE Josh Allen
DT Aaron Donald
NT Harrison Phillips
LE Montez Sweat
LB Lavonte David
LB Nicholas Morrow
CB Darious Williams
CB Rasul Douglas
CB L’Jarius Sneed
SS Jimmie Ward
FS Malik Hooker (Q)

Bench
Edge Carl Granderson
Edge Boye Mafe
INT Osa Odighizuwa
INT A’Shawn Robinson 
LB Josh Uche
CB Asante Samuel Jr.
S Marcus Epps
S Jacquen Brisker

 

 

 

Cuba

QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Travis Etienne
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Puka Nacua
WR: Calvin Ridley
TE: Dawson Knox
LT: Mekhi Becton
LG: Elgton Jenkins
C - Jason Kelce
RG: Wyatt Teller
RT: Darnell Wright

RB: Zach Charbonnet 
RB: Samaje Perine
WR: Zay Flowers
WR: Marvin Mims
RB/WR: Rondale Moore
TE/H-Back: Josh Oliver
TE: Austin Hooper
OL: Jonah Williams

 

Edge: Bradley Chubb
DT: David Onyemata 
DT: Zach Sieler
Edge: Rashan Gary
WLB: Leighton Vander Esch
MLB: Bobby Okereke 
RCB: Martin Emerson
NCB: Denzel Ward
FS: Deshon Elliot 
SS: Vonn Bell
LCB: Xavien Howard

Edge: Von Miller
Edge/DT: Dre’Mont Jones
DT/DE: Karl Brooks
DT: Derrick Nnadi
OLB: Jahlani Tavai
SLB: Drue Tranquill
Slot CB/Star: Alontae Taylor
NCB: Kadar Kohou 

Edited October 8, 2023 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Camden

Offense

Man blocking outside running game – We’re lucky to be almost at full strength on the OL with Jenkins’ return, and we think we have one of the best OL in BDL right now. While Jenkins and Meinerz will rotate at the RG position (as Jenkins rotated with Patrick IRL on Thursday), we think we can dominate in the trenches in this game. In the running game, we’ll aim at Cuba edge rushers as 1. they aren’t great run defenders 2. Rashan Gary, who is by far Cuba most dangerous pass rusher, plays only 20ish snaps a game this year and we think we can gas him out by running straight at him. We want to dominate those guys outside and we will run the ball a lot, mainly aiming the B and C gaps. Herbert will get the majority of touches, Zach Moss is the change of pace back and McKinnon comes in for passing downs.

Deep play action passes – Last week, Cuba had to put Alontae Taylor at FS. They may get Elliot back this week, but, in any case, we want to test those safeties and see if we can get one-on-one matchups deep with AJ Brown or breakout star Nico Collins – in which case we will take those shots off the play-action. If anything, having our outside receivers frequently run deep routes should pin Vonn Bell back a bit which will benefit our running game.

Use the slot/TE to move the chains – We may welcome back Cooper Kupp this week. If so, we’ll ease him into the lineup, rotating him with Davis/Shaheed – both of whom will play mostly outside while AJ Brown or Collins slide in the slot. Whoever that is between Kupp, Collins, Brown or Shaheed, we will use our slot WR, Higbee and, to a lesser degree, Herbert/McKinnon to move the chains underneath. We think our OL can handle Cuba pass rush, but if need, we will use a TE chip on Gary or leave our RB in pass blocking.

 

Defense

Protect the deep ball – Tannehill is still a QB that relies a lot on the big play to score points. If we can take out the deep ball with coverage and pressure, and Cuba is stuck with a quick passing game, well we think we have a good chance to win as Tannehill isn’t the best QB to play that sort of offense. We will have Malik Hooker (Epps if out) play deep centerfield with Jimmie Ward on a specific coverage on Jefferson (see later). That should limit Tannehill in his ability to find Jefferson, Ridley or Mims deep. If Tannehill has to dink and dunk, then we’re fine with it.

Trust our DL – Our DL has two jobs here: defend the run and pressure Tannehill with mostly four. Cuba interior OL is awesome, but they will have their hands full here. Still, our DTs will prioritize run defense over aggressive pass rushing on non-passing downs. Expect Osa to play a lot of snaps as well in rotation as we trust him in both facets of the game. Robinson will play limited snaps to keep everyone fresh. Cuba tackles on the other end are bottom tier in pressures allowed. Granted, their IRL QBs hold the ball too long, but so does Tannehill. We want to put pressure on Becton and Wright with the rotation of Sweat, Allen, Granderson and Mafe, with Uche coming in for passing downs. All those guys are solid run defenders as well - in addition to Morrow who we're starting over Luvu for the run defense skills he's shown this year - and we think they will be able to limit Etienne and pressure Tannehill. We will throw a DB blitz here and there with Ward compensating, but that will be limited.

Man Coverage with bracket on JJ – We recognize JJ greatness and we don’t have a true shutdown man-to-man corner on our side so we will have a specific coverage on him. We will have him bracketed by Rasul Douglas, who will jam him at the line and play the under, with Jimmie Ward playing the over. Goal is to almost take him totally out of the game with those two guys. Of course, Cuba has other weapons – in fact, their WR corps is pretty stacked – but we like our corner group and we feel like we match up well with those guys. Here are the (man) coverage assignments for the game:

Sneed – Nacua
Darious Williams – WR2 (likely Ridley)
Samuel Jr.  – WR4
Morrow – whoever they trot out at TE
David – Etienne
Brisker – RB2 in 2RB sets / TE2 in 2TE sets

Alternance of zone in dime and empty sets – We expect some empty sets, in which case we will throw our dime package and play a mix of zone coverage (cover 2 / cover 3). We will also play some zone (same schemes) in 4WR sets – but keeping the same assignments pre-snaps - to throw off Tannehill from time to time.

 

 

 

 

Cuba

Pregame
We will begin the game with a moment of silence for Jlash. Our great friend was taken from us too soon so we will honor his legacy by placing his initials at both 25 yard lines.

Intro
We are fresh off a tie which is not a win. We play a Camden team much better than their win/loss record and need to make a commitment to excellence in order to win and remain atop our division.

Offense
In the early going we are aiming at establishing the run game. Camden brings an intimidating front 4 from a pass rush but can struggle against teams that can wear them down in the trenches. With Elgton Jenkins returning, the entirety of our offensive line can create pushes in the run game. We intend to finish the game with a minimum of 30 carries between Etienne and Charbonnet on a 20/10 split. We want to get Etienne opportunities to test the edges and get out in space. The goal is utilizing stretch carries and counters where Teller can be the pull and help get 3 blockers on Donald. Charbonnet gives our offense a physical element which we lacked. We want to utilize him on powers to the right side with Jenkins as the pulling as behind Teller and Wright. We think the same rushing plays have successful opportunities in the 2nd half as we can wear down Camden’s starting DL. Camden’s depth up front is loaded with pass rushers and undersized edges, so if we can establish the run on their front 4, we remain confident we can do it against whatever front they show.

Ryan Tannehill will function off the play action game, as he’s been much more effective with a talented running game to compliment his still strong deep ball. In the early going, we will focus on getting Jefferson and Nacua involved. Within our first ten scripted passes, 8 of those 10 targets will go toward the two players. We want to focus on Jefferson getting several slant patterns to combat the potential zone friendly nature Camden utilizes. If they begin with an influx of man coverage, we will divert the early game script to Puka unless Jefferson deals with double coverage. The goal of the early passing game is getting Tannehill easily completions and beginning to set up the play action game. Jefferson will still be the alpha in our offense but Puka will run in breaking cuts and drag concepts underneath as a potential isolated coverage weapon to get Tannehill going. Tannehill’s other two scripted passes in his first ten passes will be slip screens to each Charbonnet and Etienne.

In the second half, we want to use play action with Jefferson as our primary target on come backs and crossing patterns which require more time in the pocket. We added a couple wrinkles to get Marvin Mims involved as he pairs tremendously with Tannehill’s deep ball which is currently his most effective area targeting. The goal is stacking Nacua and Jefferson together and pairing Mims on the backside in likely isolated coverage. Due to the attention and target share of Jefferson and Nacua, the opportunities to hit Mims are there, particularly with him likely going against Camden’s 3rd CB or in isolated coverage against a cover 3. Ridley will serve as primarily a decoy until the redzone. We think the attention Nacua and Jefferson provide will leave redzone isolation opportunities which Ridley is capable of taking advantage of with options to slant, fade, or go underneath depending on the coverage. Zay Flowers will be used in stack sets with Nacua when we want to target Jefferson as we will bunch the 3 together and motion Jefferson to get single coverage or open some hi-lo concepts between Nacua and Flowers. Flowers will also run vertical routes to keep the safety deep at bay.

With such a potent defensive line, we want to slightly lessen the 3 WR looks to bring more two TEs sets and opportunities to help our edge protection. We’ll incorporate 2 RB sets on about 5% of snaps with Etienne serving as the motion man. We want to create some RPO screen options with Tannehill handing off to Charbonnet or faking the handoff with Rondale Moore before getting the ball to Etienne on the boundary. Josh Oliver will play on about 20% of our snaps as an H-Back and also on the line next to Dawson Knox to help our running game get going. Oliver will help on Becton’s side, while Kelce will make assisting Donald’s assignment on all situations the default option.

 

 

Defense
Cooper Kupp returns this week and the 3 headed monster Camden brings with Nico Collins emerging and the electrifying AJ Brown will require all hands on deck.

We have two game plans as we anticipate Justin Fields to have some role in Camden’s gameplan. With Baker Mayfield at QB, we will play a primarily man based defense. That’ll be our coverage on about 60% of our snaps. We made a couple changes to the secondary with Martin Emerson coming into start on the outside. Among CBs with at least 10 targets in coverage, Emerson is ranked 1st in completion pct when targeted. Ideally we would like to have Emerson follow Collins but we will leave him and Howard on sides but in man coverage. Denzel Ward will travel with Kupp frequently as Kupp is most often lined up in the slot. We will dictate safety coverage based on the down and distance. If Baker Mayfield is at QB, we will bring Vonn Bell into the box on early downs to help against the run and play a 2 man shell with both boundary CBs receiving safety help on pass downs. It is known Camden wants to run the ball, and we can anticipate the play action will be a focal point of their gameplan, thus stopping the early down rushing presence will give assistance to helping the back end. If forced to bring a safety down, Elliot will consistently stay on top of AJ Brown’s assignment. If it’s Fields, we will move toward a press man cover defense and occasionally rush 5 to offset his timing as he has been prone to taking sacks.

Von Miller returning gives a big boost to our pass rush. Miller will play on about 20 snaps, and primarily pass rush downs and 2 minute drills. We want to stack Gary and Miller together on obvious pass rush downs with just one DL (Onyemata) and Bradley Chubb also in a two point stance against Lane Johnson. The Gary and Miller twists will help open up lanes to get after Baker or give a spy assistance should he step up into the pocket looking to scramble.

The run game will be of significant focus in this game with Camden having a preference to run up the middle. With a goal to bring the safety down on early downs, we also want to run some blitzes up the middle combat the intention for Camden to establish its run game. The goal is being a bit more aggressive than usual getting clogging the holes and anticipating the plays. We will be less aggressive in our blitzes toward the second half when it comes to stopping the run. Vander Esch covers Higbee and two TE sets, Bell comes down and would be assigned Kyle Pitts.

Edited October 8, 2023 by RedGold

[Blue]

Two offenses that are rolling, I think Tannehill struggles a bit more behind Cuba's tackles and the Cuba defense has a little tougher time slowing down Camden.

[LAOJoe]

Camden wins on the strength of their defense.

[bcb1213]

Wish Cuba would have involved Ridley more than just the red zone, where he will feast on the much smaller Darious Williams.  I'm also unsure how passing 8 out of your first ten plays helps establish play action passing

 

On the flip side, I get not wanting to be predictable but taking Kupp and Shahid out of the slot just netrralizes what they do best IMO 

 

This is easily the closest matchup of the week.  I'm going to have to come back

[TedLavie]

35 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

taking Kupp and Shahid out of the slot just netrralizes what they do best IMO 

Just to be clear, Kupp stays in the slot. He just rotates for snaps with Davis and Shaheed, and those two guys (Gabe and Shaheed) would play more outside, in which case Collins or AJ Brown go back in the slot.

[SirA1]

I am going to go with the home team in this one although it is very close.

I like Tannehill slightly more than Baker.

Cuba 24 - Camden 21

[Scoundrel]

I think Cuba takes this one at home in the other game of the week (other than what I feel Singapore and Anchorage is) They are a tough team and execute most effectively here. 

[RedGold]

Taking Cuba in a very close matchup.   

Ted I'm disappointed in you,    " We recognize JJ greatness and we don’t have a true shutdown man-to-man corner on our side"

[Ragnarok]

I'm going Camden here.  Two very good gameplans, two very good OLs, but I like the DL of Camden to affect Tannehill.  And I oddly trust Baker more right now.