Jump to content

The MVP race

Steelersfan43

By Steelersfan43
in NFL General

 Share

Recommended Posts

Soko

Soko

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

TDs can be a bit flukey from year to year, however. 

In one of the greatest WR seasons of all time, Calvin Johnson had 1964 yards and a mere 5 TDs. He was tackled at the 1 or 2 yard line 7 times. 

If a player does the bulk of the work to get the ball down to the 1 or 2 yard line and the goal line back punches it in, the player should get "credit" for causing the score even if they don't get the TD. They are most responsible for the score. 

So it takes a bit more nuance than just looking at TD totals to understand the actual impact on the field. 

When has that ever been relevant in any previous MVP discussions? Without going back 20-30 years, I’d bet touchdowns are the single highest correlative stat for MVP QBs. Mahomes led last year, Rodgers led two year before that, Lamar led before that,  Mahomes led before that. The few years where the MVP isn’t the guy tossing up the most TDs, it’s someone who’s still really high up there (Rodgers and Brady, recently) who had very efficient seasons (low INT numbers). Add that in with #1 or close to #1 seed, and that’s almost always the formula.

Like, yeah, if you want to compare Allen and Lamar as players, you look into things like that. But the MVP voters don’t care, and they’ve never cared. They’ll look at the numbers and run with them more often than they don’t.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Soko said:

When has that ever been relevant in any previous MVP discussions? Without going back 20-30 years, I’d bet touchdowns are the single highest correlative stat for MVP QBs. Mahomes led last year, Rodgers led two year before that, Lamar led before that,  Mahomes led before that. The few years where the MVP isn’t the guy tossing up the most TDs, it’s someone who’s still really high up there (Rodgers and Brady, recently) who had very efficient seasons (low INT numbers). Add that in with #1 or close to #1 seed, and that’s almost always the formula.

Like, yeah, if you want to compare Allen and Lamar as players, you look into things like that. But the MVP voters don’t care, and they’ve never cared. They’ll look at the numbers and run with them more often than they don’t.

It's just wild to me that Allen has 16 more TDs than Lamar, and people think Lamar should have it. In fact- Allen is ranked higher by PFF and EPA. Much higher.

That being said, I ❤️ Lamar, so if he wins it- I'll be content. I'll just be ultra confused and side eye the MVP award more than I used to. 

Edited by WizeGuy
Link to comment
Share on other sites
AngusMcFife

AngusMcFife

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

It's just wild to me that Allen has 16 more TDs than Lamar, and people think Lamar should have it. In fact- Allen is ranked higher by PFF and EPA. Much higher.

That being said, I ❤️ Lamar, so if he wins it- I'll be content. I'll just be ultra confused and side eye the MVP award more than I used to. 

You think 91.4 is "much higher" than 87.4? I feel that given all the inconsistencies involved in PFF scoring, that's roughly equal. Maybe if the difference is 7 or 8 points I will consider that meaningful.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Soko

Soko

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

It's just wild to me that Allen has 16 more TDs than Lamar, and people think Lamar should have it. In fact- Allen is ranked higher by PFF and EPA. Much higher.

That being said, I ❤️ Lamar, so if he wins it- I'll be content. I'll just be ultra confused and side eye the MVP award more than I used to. 

I’ve maintained that this is a weird year. If I was a voter, I wouldn’t know who to vote for. Every candidate has pretty strong arguments against, IMO, to the point where whoever wins the award could conceivably be considered “undeserved”. But someone has to get it, so it is what it is. 

I’m fine with people introducing other, less discussed, ratings or numbers to support their guy…but let’s not pretend like the formula that the actual voters use, hasn’t been out there for awhile. They don’t, or at least barely, care about things like impact or fairness. It’s usually a combo of bulk stats (TDs/yards), wins, and efficiency. Can’t pretend like those don’t matter.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
AngusMcFife

AngusMcFife

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Soko said:

When has that ever been relevant in any previous MVP discussions? Without going back 20-30 years, I’d bet touchdowns are the single highest correlative stat for MVP QBs. Mahomes led last year, Rodgers led two year before that, Lamar led before that,  Mahomes led before that. The few years where the MVP isn’t the guy tossing up the most TDs, it’s someone who’s still really high up there (Rodgers and Brady, recently) who had very efficient seasons (low INT numbers). Add that in with #1 or close to #1 seed, and that’s almost always the formula.

Like, yeah, if you want to compare Allen and Lamar as players, you look into things like that. But the MVP voters don’t care, and they’ve never cared. They’ll look at the numbers and run with them more often than they don’t.

Those are fair points, but when has an MVP been awarded to a wild-card QB vs the no. 1/2 seed division-winning QB? 

The only recent one I can find is Peyton Manning in 2008 when he went 12-4 but lost the division to 13-3 Titans. The Bills have 6 losses already. 

There are two trends for awarding the MVP:
1) The QB on a great team with a dominant record
2) The QB with great stats

So I don't think precedent really provides any answer here. QB wins are at least as valuable as TDs. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Soko

Soko

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Those are fair points, but when has an MVP been awarded to a wild-card QB vs the no. 1/2 seed division-winning QB? 

The only recent one I can find is Peyton Manning in 2008 when he went 12-4 but lost the division to 13-3 Titans. The Bills have 6 losses already. 

There are two trends for awarding the MVP:
1) The QB on a great team with a dominant record
2) The QB with great stats

So I don't think precedent really provides any answer here. QB wins are at least as valuable as TDs. 

Agreed. Due to how things are shaking out this season, there’s going to be a winner that doesn’t fit the standard mold of MVP winner, in one way or another. I don’t know who it’ll be and I don’t feel strongly about one guy in particular. 

However, that doesn’t change the weight that TDs hold in the discussion. So a “okay, he’s got more TDs, so what?” type mindset, doesn’t really make any sense within this topic.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
diamondbull424

diamondbull424

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, BetterCallSaul said:

I would say yes. Rudolph MVP until Myles Garrett murders him. Then it goes to MG. 

No joke I think Myles Garrett belongs in the MVP conversation. I’d argue with anyone who says CMC is more valuable to his team than Myles Garrett has been to his. You take CMC off the 49ers and they’re still a playoff team and probably still win 11 games on the season.

You take MG off the Browns and that defense can’t operate the same and the thin margin of victories before Lord Flacco took over would’ve resulted in more losses than not. Heck do they even entertain Flacco? That squad might only be a 7 win team without MG.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
diamondbull424

diamondbull424

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Soko said:

Agreed. Due to how things are shaking out this season, there’s going to be a winner that doesn’t fit the standard mold of MVP winner, in one way or another. I don’t know who it’ll be and I don’t feel strongly about one guy in particular. 

However, that doesn’t change the weight that TDs hold in the discussion. So a “okay, he’s got more TDs, so what?” type mindset, doesn’t really make any sense within this topic.

Agreed. I think it definitely needs to be considered as well.

Though I think the argument also has to be with this unicorn of a season, what’s more important for voters, TDs or wins.

I’m also sure they’re hoping Allen and Lamar can help to save them of that quandary. If Allen wins 2 straight and Lamar loses two straight, it’s an easy decision.

But if the Bills with the 4th ranked defense ends up at 10-7 and the Ravens end up 14-3 with Lamar and Allen continuing to pace similar to their current numbers which are nearly identical and should both be somewhere around 4750 total yards… where do you place the biggest emphasis? Wins or TDs? And make no mistake Allen and Lamar are easily more important to their teams than either Tyeek or CMC are to theirs, no question. So unless they smash a record or get close to it, we should be considering a QB: Lamar and Allen as the front runners and Dak and Hurts as the dark horse options.

I think anyone who watches the games looking at Lamar and Josh Allen you have to come away believing that both players are reasonably within the same sphere with regard to their impact and value to their respective offenses.

 

As somewhat of an aside I think also the NFL is entering into an era where the value of a scrambling/running QB hasn’t truly been defined. We’ve had decades to analyze the passing game and we’re still mining stats to quantify its impact on the game. Passer rating was the standard and now it’s become ANY/A, EPA, etc.

You look at games and it’s hard to quantify how Hurts, Mahomes, and Allen impact their offense more than just their passing prowess or their run yard totals. How do you quantify breaking the spirit of a defense when they’ve done everything right for 5 seconds and then you still overcome them? How do you quantify the Big Ben effect?

And Lamar takes that lack of empirical context to perhaps another level. There’s both that impact and the same overall fear you have of a great to elite (finesse-ish) RB like a CMC, Alvin Kamars (past), Dalvin Cook (past), Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert, etc… and no disrespect to these guys with the “finesse” label, I simply mean they’re not Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry. These guys force you to bite and be wrong and play outside your defenses’ typical self. Lamar does that as well.

One things for sure this MVP debate I feel forces the voters to do more than look at their “normal” process. They have to force themselves to be more informed this season because none of the usual suspects are currently there to save them. There’s no Peyton Manning to hand it to… unless Lamar has become the new Peyton? Interesting thought. I enjoy all the arguments in this thread. Very good debate going on here on all sides of the aisle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


×
×
  • Create New...