2024 Draft Debate and Discussion

[AZBearsFan]

4 hours ago, Epyon said:

One thing I'm having trouble placing when trying to do a mock with Williams, is the value of Fields in trade.

Right now I've got him kinda penciled in as ~32nd overall, not unlike claypool but that could also be a bit of wishful thinking on my part since my idea is to draft Xavier Legette-WR with that pick to similarly stack weapons, and he is likely available in that range.

So what do we all think we'd get back for Fields right now?

When I’ve done Williams mocks usually I end up trading him for ATL’s 2 (currently pick 43) and a 2025 pick that in my mind would be conditional. 

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, Epyon said:

He played with people who did directly play with Harrison at the very least.  And the fact that it's also his school certainly is a factor.... Wouldn't be shocked if he was higher on Egbuka as well.

I don’t look at that as a connection at all. 

[AZBearsFan]

6 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

The idea that we will get to trade down for a “haul” but also that we are going to be getting Marvin Harrison at the same time is just this weeks newest issue of Bears Fan Fic.

Could it be done? Sure, but it would likely have to be some really crazy wheeling and dealing by Poles. Because MHJ is going to be almost as coveted as those Top 2 QBs, making it almost a lock he goes Top 3, #4 at worst.

Unless Arizona is giving up on Kyler (which just takes a different QB suitor off the board) then it looks very unlikely they are moving out of that spot, as they would be guaranteed either MHJ or a massive trade piece of the remaining of Williams/Maye. So it could take nearly as much of a trade to pry MHJ away from them as we would get for giving up #1 to a QB needy team.

Unless we get a miracle situation behind us, you all better start looking at Bowers/Nabors/Coleman/Odunze

Agree all the cards would need to fall right for us to get Harrison after a trade down, because I think he’s going to go 2nd or 3rd. NE and AZ both desperately need WRs. Of the current top 5 (us, NE, AZ, WSH and us again) the least likely to take Harrison is WSH, but they’re also most likely in that group to trade up to 1 for their QBOC. Unless one of NE or AZ takes Alt or Fashanu over Harrison in that scenario he won’t even make it to 4.

The most realistic scenario where we end up with MHJ without taking him 1st overall (highly unlikely) involves CAR winning 3 of their last 4 and falling out of the top 2. That seems highly unlikely too. And that’s fine - Nabors is a STUD WR prospect too. 

[AZBearsFan]

Looking at the current top 11 excluding us, there aren’t really a ton of prime trade down spots.

2. NE - probably doesn’t need to trade up because they can get Maye/Williams at 2.

3. AZ - only trading up if they move on from Kyler. That’s expensive, and I’d say 50/50 at best they go that way. They DO have multiple 1sts this year though (HOU’s)  - would they give us 3, 16 and Budda Baker? I’d be down for that, and they’d be recouping capital by trading away Kyler in that scenario too.

4. WSH - Maybe? They seem to like Howell quite a bit, but there’s gonna be a new regime there too. They have two 2nds this year as well (ours from the Sweat trade). 

6. LVR - I could see it, but unless they throw in Maxx Crosby (unlikely IMO) they’d have to give the most in trade capital to move up because they don’t have anything else of consequence to offer players-wise that I think we’d consider (yes that includes Adams).

7. NYJ - they have Rodgers - they aren’t moving up to 1 unless he retires.

8. NYG - probably a dark horse candidate unless they really think 🤌 is the goods. I am pretty damn skeptical on that front. They also have two 2nds this year (SEA’s). 

9. TEN - just took Levis and he looks promising. I’d be shocked.

10. LAC - not taking a QB they have Herbert

11. ATL - they need a QB badly but from 11 to 1 they’re giving us multiple 1sts, multiple 2nds AND Bijan or I’m not even listening to go back that far. Of course, they don’t really use Bijan, so maybe…

 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

.

 they really think 🤌 is the goods. I am pretty damn 

 

Bravo, signore.

[AZBearsFan]

Here’s a fun one:

Say we trade down with LVR and, from the current draft slotting, we are picking 5 and 6. We miss out on MHJ, but at 5-6 we take Nabers and Bowers. 🤔

Edited December 14, 2023 by AZBearsFan

[AZBearsFan]

11 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Here’s a fun one:

Say we trade down with LVR and, from the current draft slotting, we are picking 5 and 6. We miss out on MHJ, but at 5-6 we take Nabers and Bowers. 🤔

Here’s how that simmed out for me with me trading 1-1 for 1-6, 2-37, 2025 1st, 2025 2nd and 2026 2nd:

Moore/Nabers/Bowers/Kmet is an absurd 12 personnel package… 

[Bigbear72]

41 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Here’s how that simmed out for me with me trading 1-1 for 1-6, 2-37, 2025 1st, 2025 2nd and 2026 2nd:

Moore/Nabers/Bowers/Kmet is an absurd 12 personnel package… 

I'm absolutely good with that. Though I may go for a center earlier. I would not be mad that this draft at all.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

15 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

I'm absolutely good with that. Though I may go for a center earlier. I would not be mad that this draft at all.

Center is my highest need for the offseason, but if they were going to draft one i think it needed to be last year.  Much safer now to pay for a FA as they're not going to be as expensive as the other things you could do with high draft picks, and then you get a guy you know can play.  Would be embarassing to do something like draft an LT at the top of round 1, then draft a center, and then they all end up being guards, and we just have a ****load of depth at G and Jones at LT and Patrick staying at C.  Hire one, and use the higher picks of more expensive positions.  That said, in this kind of draft if you're getting a 4th round center and paying a guy I think that's great for building OL now and future. 

[StLunatic88]

12 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Looking at the current top 11 excluding us, there aren’t really a ton of prime trade down spots.

It is going to be a VERY different landscape for trading the #1 Pick than it was last year. There were plenty of teams looking for QBs, with only a few real options. 

Daniels might make himself into the Anthony Richardson of this draft, but at best there are 3 real FRPs for 2024. The difference is going to be the Free Agents/Trade Assets. Last year you basically had Derek Carr, Jimmy G or Baker (maybe take a chance on Minshew, Drew Lock or Heinicke) for a bunch of teams who still thought they were trying to hang onto a playoff window. This year, you can have every single one of those guys (already a FA, likely to be cut or a pretty cheap trade) But you also now have pure Free Agents of Tannehill, Tyrod, Jameis, Huntley and Dobbs on top of a Recovering/Looming Kirk Cousins. Also to varying degrees via trade you have Stafford, Kyler, Fields, Howell, Pickett, etc.

What we NEED for our pick value is a team who could take one of the top QBs but doesnt NEED to, to leap teams like the Patriots. When it looked like the Giants were going to be there with Danny Dimes missing most of next year and then an easy out of his contract after that, that threat made #1 more valuable. Now that they have won with Devito, not only do they have some belief to bridge the injury gap, they are now out of the running for that top pick. So right now, we need Washington to sneak past atleast Arizona, but it would be amazing if they get to #2 and send Howell out to Minnesota or Tampa.

As I said before, we FLEECED Carolina getting DJ Moore, that seems like it was very much New Owner Syndrome he just HAD to have his QB. Im not sure we have that out there right now. There is a Reason that Indy wouldnt send us Michael Pittman. it just almost never happens. Which is why its crazy seeing the Maxx Crosby stuff. Its already getting out of hand, he is their Franchise Guy, no one is more Raiders than Maxx right now. We are more likely to get Tyree Wilson than we are Maxx Crosby in a trade with the Raiders (wait...I like that idea)

But more likely, if we were somehow to be moving down the same amount as last year (1 to 9) Id bet we are getting less total value, based solely on what a #1 (Top10) Weapon is worth. But Its probably #9+ Early 2nd+ '25 FRP, + '26 FRP + an Average young player/or/Future Day 2 Pick. So 5 assets, but much more uncertain value.

[StLunatic88]

14 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

2. NE / 3. AZ / 4. WSH / 6. LVR / 7. NYJ / 8. NYG / 9. TEN / 10. LAC / 11. ATL

Just one other thing I wanted to say; There are only at most 12 spots looking for a new QB this year. But, even if all of those did make changes, at least 5-7 of those spots would just be musical chairs from other teams Starting QBs (Fields, Kyler, Carr, Stafford, Baker, even Howell & Pickett would be given a shot elsewhere if replaced) So at most we are looking at 7 truly NEW starting QBs, but its probably going to be like 4/5, with the 3 Top Rookies, Plus Jamies getting another chance, and then one or two getting left to the scrap heap to put something together (Huntley, Heinicke, Lock, Dobbs, etc.)

All of that is said just to point out, the #1 pick this year is less likely to hold the same value as it did last year. Its not as low as the Pickett year (or even close to that) but when you level set what DJ Moore is actually worth, we got one of the most valuable returns in the modern era of the draft for the #1 pick. (and thats before you factor in the FFRP could end up #1 overall)

Edited December 14, 2023 by StLunatic88

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

37 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Just one other thing I wanted to say; There are only at most 12 spots looking for a new QB this year. But, even if all of those did make changes, at least 5-7 of those spots would just be musical chairs from other teams Starting QBs (Fields, Kyler, Carr, Stafford, Baker, even Howell & Pickett would be given a shot elsewhere if replaced) So at most we are looking at 7 truly NEW starting QBs, but its probably going to be like 4/5, with the 3 Top Rookies, Plus Jamies getting another chance, and then one or two getting left to the scrap heap to put something together (Huntley, Heinicke, Lock, Dobbs, etc.)

All of that is said just to point out, the #1 pick this year is less likely to hold the same value as it did last year. Its not as low as the Pickett year (or even close to that) but when you level set what DJ Moore is actually worth, we got one of the most valuable returns in the modern era of the draft for the #1 pick. (and thats before you factor in the FFRP could end up #1 overall)

The math adds up, but how do you feel these prospects rank compared to last year or other years?  I've heard people whose opinion usually bears out rank Maye and Williams being in the top 3-5 from the last couple drafts.  I stink at college evaluation so am genuinely asking here.  I know Williams especially has tarnished a bit this year but even before that Maye was being bandied about as a top pick in other years. 

[Madmike90]

15 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Looking at the current top 11 excluding us, there aren’t really a ton of prime trade down spots.

2. NE - probably doesn’t need to trade up because they can get Maye/Williams at 2.

3. AZ - only trading up if they move on from Kyler. That’s expensive, and I’d say 50/50 at best they go that way. They DO have multiple 1sts this year though (HOU’s)  - would they give us 3, 16 and Budda Baker? I’d be down for that, and they’d be recouping capital by trading away Kyler in that scenario too.

4. WSH - Maybe? They seem to like Howell quite a bit, but there’s gonna be a new regime there too. They have two 2nds this year as well (ours from the Sweat trade). 

6. LVR - I could see it, but unless they throw in Maxx Crosby (unlikely IMO) they’d have to give the most in trade capital to move up because they don’t have anything else of consequence to offer players-wise that I think we’d consider (yes that includes Adams).

7. NYJ - they have Rodgers - they aren’t moving up to 1 unless he retires.

8. NYG - probably a dark horse candidate unless they really think 🤌 is the goods. I am pretty damn skeptical on that front. They also have two 2nds this year (SEA’s). 

9. TEN - just took Levis and he looks promising. I’d be shocked.

10. LAC - not taking a QB they have Herbert

11. ATL - they need a QB badly but from 11 to 1 they’re giving us multiple 1sts, multiple 2nds AND Bijan or I’m not even listening to go back that far. Of course, they don’t really use Bijan, so maybe…

 

The good news is we really only need two teams who want to move up...

Washington interest me a lot...I could see their new owner wanting to make a statement and what better statement than bringing Caleb home to be the face of that franchise? For us we could get #4 + potentially two top 5 picks in the 2nd round plus future picks &/or some talented players...imagine getting Terry McLaurin across from DJ...that would be pretty crazy even with him coming off a down year.

[StLunatic88]

50 minutes ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

The math adds up, but how do you feel these prospects rank compared to last year or other years?  I've heard people whose opinion usually bears out rank Maye and Williams being in the top 3-5 from the last couple drafts.  I stink at college evaluation so am genuinely asking here.  I know Williams especially has tarnished a bit this year but even before that Maye was being bandied about as a top pick in other years. 

If we look at the last 4 Drafts, Its Trevor Lawrence and then  everyone else. He is the only QB prospect that Ive looked at as "cant pass up" in a while.

Including him, I had 13 expected 1st Round QBs, not like I graded them as worth a FRP, but that they would likely go (Levis as the only one who didnt end up going). And neither Williams or Maye are "cant pass up" to me. I dont have either of those guys ahead of CJ Stroud, and to me, if you werent willing to take Stroud last year, I have no problem on passing on these guys this year ("Passing" being trading away the pick, not selecting anoter prospect over them)

I have them on the same level as I had Fields as a prospect; plenty of enticing upside, but some real questions/holes that you need answered or have to believe they can overcome (or you just ignore). Just behind them I have in some order Daniels, Richardson, Young, Wilson.

With them being ranked similarly to me I understand both sides argument. "If they are the same to you, then just hit the reset button on the Rookie Contract" Except that is just an excuse for bad team management. Its a crutch. But also on the other side, you have that guy on your roster already, and even underwhelming years, he still has 3 NFL years under his belt. Especially while he still has 2 more season of an Under market value QB contract (and a completely team friendly 4 years if we really need it with the Franchise Tag)

In the end, I think we can fid the similar Rookie QBs if thats what we want/need in future drafts, especially with the Draft Capital that we are accruing

[HuskieBear]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

The good news is we really only need two teams who want to move up...

Washington interest me a lot...I could see their new owner wanting to make a statement and what better statement than bringing Caleb home to be the face of that franchise? For us we could get #4 + potentially two top 5 picks in the 2nd round plus future picks &/or some talented players...imagine getting Terry McLaurin across from DJ...that would be pretty crazy even with him coming off a down year.

I can imagine WSH would throw terry in the trade after watching carolina have their #1 draft pick QB have nobody to throw it to because DJ was included in the trade