Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)

[lancerman]

He's the first generational type QB prospect in that Elway/Manning/Luck sphere that didn't become elite and I think at this point it's a bit too late in the game to assume he is going to become elite and break out now. He had a high floor, and he's basically at it, he became a run of the mill starter. He just didn't hit his potential

[LinderFournette]

Trevor isn't as bad as y'all think

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, LinderFournette said:

Trevor isn't as bad as y'all think

Lamar at 24. Yeah this metric looks super legitimate.

[ET80]

23 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Lamar at 24. Yeah this metric looks super legitimate.

Malik Willis at 5. 🤣

[MWil23]

4 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Malik Willis at 5. 🤣

49% of Jacksonville’s plays went for 0 or negative yards and Lawrence had like 16 pass yards at halftime.

”12th in the league”

[Tugboat]

3 hours ago, MWil23 said:

49% of Jacksonville’s plays went for 0 or negative yards and Lawrence had like 16 pass yards at halftime.

”12th in the league”

I mean, on this point...there's a reason that the torches are already out for the Jaguars coaching staff, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and...whoever is actually calling the plays right now.

 

There's also deep lamenting regarding the garbage OLine (which is inexplicably the same as the garbage OLine from last year).

 

These are both more fundamental causes of those sort of 0 or Negative Yardage plays than Trevor.

[MWil23]

6 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

I mean, on this point...there's a reason that the torches are already out for the Jaguars coaching staff, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and...whoever is actually calling the plays right now.

 

There's also deep lamenting regarding the garbage OLine (which is inexplicably the same as the garbage OLine from last year).

 

These are both more fundamental causes of those sort of 0 or Negative Yardage plays than Trevor.

Watching pass after pass sail high and wide and out of bounds was comically bad on the quarterback there. He looked horrific.

[LinderFournette]

21 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Watching pass after pass sail high and wide and out of bounds was comically bad on the quarterback there. He looked horrific.

And watching the 1st half and 2nd half and it seemed they switched play callers and went to more of a no huddle and that got them into rythem. 

I mean in a span on maybe 4 plays.  U had 2 timeouts called to avoid a delay call cuz they took too long getting the play in

[LinderFournette]

30 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

I mean, on this point...there's a reason that the torches are already out for the Jaguars coaching staff, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and...whoever is actually calling the plays right now.

 

There's also deep lamenting regarding the garbage OLine (which is inexplicably the same as the garbage OLine from last year).

 

These are both more fundamental causes of those sort of 0 or Negative Yardage plays than Trevor.

Morse is an improvement.  Robinson and Harrison are playing bad.  Scherff has played solid. Ezra looks mid bit I expected him to be mid.  I think Little should be given a chance over Robinson to see if that does anything.   Harrison I wouldn't bench but id definitely coach him up.

[LinderFournette]

3 hours ago, MWil23 said:

49% of Jacksonville’s plays went for 0 or negative yards and Lawrence had like 16 pass yards at halftime.

”12th in the league”

Jags 29th in pass pro

[MagicMT]

It's all the coaches/O-Line/Pass catchers fault, it's not Trevor! (same as last year)
At some point he has to shoulder part of the blame too.
Lawrence is an average QB and chances are he'll stay in that 12-18th range for his career which isn't bad but is a bit disappointing considering all the hype he had coming into the league. 

[MWil23]

17 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

Jags 29th in pass pro

Interesting considering the Browns have been horrific in pass pro, giving up 8 sacks in 2 games, second worst in the NFL, but that metric has them fifth best. Seems super flawed much like the metric that had TLaw 12th best in the league.

[ET80]

57 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Interesting considering the Browns have been horrific in pass pro, giving up 8 sacks in 2 games, second worst in the NFL, but that metric has them fifth best. Seems super flawed much like the metric that had TLaw 12th best in the league.

My only take on these "advanced stats" is that whoever is using them needs to show their work. I'm sure there's value to these rankings, but there are a TON of qualifiers - dropped passes, batted passes, expected YAC, etc.

The results on the field DO matter, y'know. You can calculate the variables in and out, doesn't change the on-field result.

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

My only take on these "advanced stats" is that whoever is using them needs to show their work. I'm sure there's value to these rankings, but there are a TON of qualifiers - dropped passes, batted passes, expected YAC, etc.

The results on the field DO matter, y'know. You can calculate the variables in and out, doesn't change the on-field result.

It’s PFF and I think they suck from a grades standpoint, but Hudson as the Browns OT was given one of the worst grades over 2 weeks we’ve seen with sack numbers to show for it but somehow this dude has them 5th…? Advanced metrics pick a lane please.

[Jakuvious]

2 hours ago, ET80 said:

My only take on these "advanced stats" is that whoever is using them needs to show their work. I'm sure there's value to these rankings, but there are a TON of qualifiers - dropped passes, batted passes, expected YAC, etc.

The results on the field DO matter, y'know. You can calculate the variables in and out, doesn't change the on-field result.

I think it's admirable to try to separate QB play from all the other variables, but I feel like you just can't with that position. It's all too heavily tied together, QB and every other part of the offense. And maybe this is just where I cross from pro-analytics, which I generally am, to old man shouting at cloud who has been watching football for decades. But isn't it just funny how everyone around elite QBs seems to play better? I've watched from Matt Cassel to Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes, and it just can't be coincidence, to me, how the "luck" metrics go up along with the quality of QB play. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady have always had a **** ton of YAC. Magically Houston goes from talent-less to a top supporting cast in the league in one draft pick. QB effects a lot whether it's tangible or measurable or not. Like, listed in the lucky things they try to equalize is interception returns. Maybe a better QB not only throws fewer interceptable balls in general, but also is less likely to throw them directly to a defender in stride. Less late throws on out breaking routes because they're inherently risky. Maybe they get more YAC because they throw to the correct shoulder to set the receiver up to turn away from the defender. Maybe they help drops and tipped INTs by throwing fewer hospitable balls. It just seems tough to call these things just luck or supporting cast, when they don't seem to trend that way on the field. And maybe the metrics supposedly factor in absolutely all of this, but when the talented ones seem lucky too, maybe it isn't just luck.

 

And I don't think all of it is trash. Like, the adjusted EPA chart half a page up gives bonus points to Stafford and Geno, while docking Carr and Baker. Those probably make sense given their environments and what I've seen of each so far. But adjusted EPA also heavily boosts Levis, Nix, and Daniel Jones, while scaling back the EPAs of Allen and Mahomes (though Mahomes was kind of bad week 2, to be fair), and that just feels...wrong. When your result runs so heavily against conventional wisdom, there might be a flaw in the process.