Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)

[Tugboat]

43 minutes ago, roger murdock said:

I think it  comes down to toxicity vs competency

Freddie Kitchens was an abomination. As a Browns fan he's *easily* the least competent coach we've ever had. There was no organization, no discipline. The players clearly didn't respect him. The plays weren't getting called in on time so we were constantly struggling to line up and actually snap the ball.

Urban is an all time great coach who made it clear to the Jaguars he wasn't interested, and the Jags threw him an obscene amount of money, and he basically tanked it. 

 

Freddie Kitchens is a genuinely stupid person who has no business even being in charge. After getting fired from HC, he was demoted to a positional coach on a bad NFL team, fired, and is now a TE coach on a below average college team. 

Urban Meyer was a POS who fostered a toxic environment and didn't care. 

 

Is it better to be malicious of woefully incompetent? 

 

At the end of the day, if Urban wanted to coach prestigious programs would be lining up for him (in college).  Freddie Kitchens does want to coach and he doesnt even have one of the top 400 coaching jobs in football. 

I think you're really underselling the fact that Urban was somehow actually both.  He was malicious and completely incompetent.

It wasn't just that he created a toxic environment, it was that nobody seemed to have any clue what was going on most of the time.  He'd swap between kicking people and causing drama and just disappearing, leaving other coaches and players unsure what was even going on.  The dysfunction was there in spades, along with the hostile environment.  It wasn't just the controversies he created, he never seemed to earn the respect of the players or other staff even, as a professional coach.

 

That said, as much as i'm sure that set Trevor's development off on completely the wrong foot at an absolutely critical point in his career...he still seemed to be turning it around and overcoming that anyway.  I still fully believe in him as a QB.  He's just been in a ****storm of unfortunate things, and the flashes of what happens when he's really "on" and his surrounding cast aren't just playing like ****, is far too good to think he's not still going to become a top tier starter at least.

 

People will call that being a "Lawrence apologist" but it's frankly ridiculous to me.  The Jaguars supporting cast offensively is garbage.  I don't know why people continue to insist otherwise.  The receivers are overpaid and suck.  Engram is the only worthwhile target he has on the roster, along with sometimes Zay Jones.  Ridley is a ******* marshmallow who is either completely schemed wide open by running right by someone or does literally nothing.  Kirk is speedy but everyone ridiculed that contract at the time, for very good reason.  He's a complementary niche piece, not a top receiver.  And when you look at the Jaguars receiving corps, it's completely absent the sort of guys that Lawrence did so well with, like a Tee Higgins who can just be a big target who can use that size, body position, feel for space to go out and get the ball when the QB puts it out there for them.  It's all just a poor fit.  The OLine is also disappointing and the defense as a whole is still wildly inconsistent and so far from a finished product.  It's a bad team.

 

And he's been been banged up in some capacity basically all year.  But particularly down the stretch where things really escalated and his play has fallen off badly.

 

 

It should be telling to people paying attention, that pretty much universally, Jaguars fans are still shouting that Lawrence is not the problem and still have confidence in him.  It should also be telling that as injuries started to mount for Lawrence, the Jaguars went from "Potential #1 Seed" to "Completely out of Playoffs".  That's a massive implosion that coincides pretty much precisely with the injuries Lawrence sustained.  That's not by accident.  When he's healthy, he elevates a pretty lackluster roster.  That's absolutely Franchise QB stuff.

[LinderFournette]

20 minutes ago, Vladimir L said:

You gotta pick up his 5th year option to see more but you can’t extend him on year 4

 

he has no excuses has a good line, good we and good backs. 
 

maybe change coordinators and see what happens 

 

he wasn’t a late round 1st pick or a mid round pick 

 

he was called a generational talent and hasn’t shown this Andrew luck was getting his brains beat and Joe borrow yet they manage to look better than lawrance

 

right now he is a mid tier qb 15th to 18th which isn’t good enough

If the jags line was any good The center wouldn't on the 4th and 1 from the 1 end up from the 1 to the 3 or 4 yard line.

There is some talent on the line but it's for whatever reason not working at all on running the ball. 

[hornbybrown]

I thought Trevor would be better and definitely quite a lot better than he is now 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said:

Biggest question, it seems, is how long do Trevor Lawrence apologists get to cite Urban Meyer's 13 weeks as an active gameday HC and his off-field dysfunctions that have little to nothing to do with Lawrence's underwhelming play over two years later before they get laughed at. 

I mean, that first year was complete dysfunction and should be thrown out. I just don't subscribe to the notion that it was so bad that it's completely incomparable to other situations. Once you get to a point where the situation is so bad or toxic that it needs to be thrown out, it's all the same. You don't get points because Urbz may be marginally worse in some regard. 

He had an up and down year last year that was mostly up on the back end of the season. One of my big push backs on Baker was that his third year was propped up on a back half of the season where he only threw 1 int in the last 9 games, which was way out of line from what he had done the rest of his career (before and after). Likewise, in another weird similarity, Lawrence's last year is propped up by a stretch of 2 int in 9 games (over 300 passes) that is just out of line with the rest of his career in terms of int rate. This year was marred by injury. Its okay to acknowledge that too. All of these things, good and bad, can be true. 

I honestly still expect him to take a big step at some point because when I have watched him at times, there are things I really, really like. But he hasn't done that yet, so he feels mostly like an above average QB, and I think its okay to be underwhelmed with where he is at 3 years in, circumstances be damned. He has a few more warts than I thought he would have coming out. I don't think he's as good of a thrower of the football as I thought he would be, to be honest. And he's much more  careless with the ball than anyone should want him to be. 

I Don't agree with the notion that the talent isn't sufficient (its not great, but he's not in the poverty streets), but I do think the offensive gameplanning and scheme is pretty rough and he would benefit from getting someone else in there. 

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I mean, that first year was complete dysfunction and should be thrown out. I just don't subscribe to the notion that it was so bad that it's completely incomparable to other situations. Once you get to a point where the situation is so bad or toxic that it needs to be thrown out, it's all the same. You don't get points because Urbz may be marginally worse in some regard. 

He had an up and down year last year that was mostly up on the back end of the season. One of my big push backs on Baker was that his third year was propped up on a back half of the season where he only threw 1 int in the last 9 games, which was way out of line from what he had done the rest of his career (before and after). Likewise, in another weird similarity, Lawrence's last year is propped up by a stretch of 2 int in 9 games (over 300 passes) that is just out of line with the rest of his career in terms of int rate. This year was marred by injury. Its okay to acknowledge that too. All of these things, good and bad, can be true. 

I honestly still expect him to take a big step at some point because when I have watched him at times, there are things I really, really like. But he hasn't done that yet, so he feels mostly like an above average QB, and I think its okay to be underwhelmed with where he is at 3 years in, circumstances be damned. He has a few more warts than I thought he would have coming out. I don't think he's as good of a thrower of the football as I thought he would be, to be honest. And he's much more  careless with the ball than anyone should want him to be. 

I Don't agree with the notion that the talent isn't sufficient (its not great, but he's not in the poverty streets), but I do think the offensive gameplanning and scheme is pretty rough and he would benefit from getting someone else in there. 

Fair points. 

A lot of my harsh criticisms of him really stem from the lack thereof from so many people. 

His situation was not that much worse than plenty. Urb being a scumbag doesn't negate his issues. On one hand, plenty of coaches have been scummy or as incompetent as Urb. 💩 is 💩 after all. On the other, Lawrence played under Dabo Swinney who is pretty scummy too. Overall, Urbs short tenure just doesn't hold up as an excuse. 

One of the biggest problems with even discussing Lawrence is evident enough back in the draft threads. Very few people actually critiqued him. He was the best ever and that was the end of the story (much like we've seen with Caleb Williams this year). That not only makes a lot of defenses of him pretty disingenuous, but it also happens to make the criticisms of him that can't really be denied stand out that much more. 

As a few have said, he's by no means a bust- though I know my criticisms of him could certainly be construed that way. He's just sort of....there? 

I look at his contemporaries like Herbert- he's been screwed by a poor supporting cast due to injuries and some awful coaching. It's clear as day that the Chargers problem is NOT Herbert. A lot of Jaguars fans are saying Lawrence isn't the issue now, but....yeah, he kind of is though. I get that he's not throwing to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokely, and Dallas Clark, but his supporting cast isn't the 2021 Texans either. If a QB needs a great supporting cast to secure his place in the top 1/2 of the league's starters, there's a problem. 

I felt that the red flags should have at least been raised when he barely out-performed Davis Mills their rookie year. Mills was far less hyped, he's less talented, and that Texans team was less talented and about as dysfunctional as Jacksonville was.

What I'm getting at is that Lawrence wouldn't be getting the same benefits of the doubt were he someone else. Now, that also comes with understanding that were he someone else, he wouldn't have been in position for anyone to justify the benefit of the doubt. Problem is the benefit  of the doubt he has enjoyed stems from his college career, hype, amd scouting reports that were all glowing- and they're things that don't hold a candle to actual NFL performances. Is it so cut and dry as to say he doesn't deserve some benefit of the doubt? No, I don't think so. The hype and scouting reports weren't written while he rode the bench. They came from somewhere and something. Their values are just now starting to diminish quicker than they were. 

The issue with relying too heavily on the great unknown but with flashes is that the same can be applied to practically everyone ever drafted highly or ascending to a starting job if people aren't willing to entertain the idea that maybe it was just not actually warranted. At some point, a spade is just a spade. Colin Kaepernick showed many flashes but the fact is he just never progressed. Carson Wentz still shows flashes every now and then. So on, so forth. Had ol Jake Locker gone to a better team not coached by a dweeb with a horrible supporting cast, maybe he too could have put it together and reached his potential, ya know? 

With Lawrence in particular, it's just not enough to show some improvement if one still holds onto the idea he's truly some generational prospect. A generational prospect is way better than Lawrence has been. Thus, you find yourself in the dilemma of "then what is he?". Average? Slightly above average? And once that's the accepted consensus, do average QBs get the benefit of the doubt regarding their coaches and weapons? Not usually. Usually they get replaced and traded elsewhere. I think a lot of people are very hesitant to admit what he is as opposed to what he was supposed to be.

To be clear, being a slightly above average QB is fine for me, and I think it's perfectly possible to be competitive with one. But a slightly above QB doesn't need to keep being treated like a generational talent and the reality needs to set in at some point.

Is that time now? Not necessarily. I think you're right regarding scheming and game planning. But the question does arise regarding how many changes Jacksonville makes in Lawrence's favor before that ceases to be the best option. 

Edited January 8 by ronjon1990

[Tank4Drake]

3 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

Urban was by Far worse.  

He had staff members afraid for their jobs not to mention the Hostile work environment.

 

If I remember correctly there's still a lawsuit against Urban by our Former K josh Lambo for kicking him in the leg allegedly. 

No HC on the planet worse than Freddie Kitchens. Urban more unlikable, sure.

[redsoxsuck05]

Yea the notion that his supporting cast is bad is laughable.

[General Tso]

Someone called Trevor Lawrence young Derek Carr.

I think that's meant to be degrading, but dang.

[DawgX]

25 minutes ago, Tank4Drake said:

No HC on the planet worse than Freddie Kitchens. Urban more unlikable, sure.

We went from Hue to Freddie. Whew.

[Tank4Drake]

5 minutes ago, DawgX said:

We went from Hue to Freddie. Whew.

Ya’ll did Baker dirty. 

I don’t think he would have been great, but he always had Top 10-12 type potential. 

[DawgX]

1 minute ago, Tank4Drake said:

Ya’ll did Baker dirty. 

I don’t think he would have been great, but he always had Top 10-12 type potential. 

Agreed, we did.

Then Stefanski seemed to save him in 2020 only for him to go back to playing poorly in 2021.

[Soggust]

45 minutes ago, DawgX said:

We went from Hue to Freddie. Whew.

Bruh I was gonna say - we all slamming Kitchens and idk that was even the worst coach Baker had.

Even if you believe Urban was the worst coach ever, 13 games of him vs 2 seasons of Kitchens + Jackson + Williams (who I don't think was awful but is a defensive guy) is comparable imo.

[Tank4Drake]

39 minutes ago, DawgX said:

Agreed, we did.

Then Stefanski seemed to save him in 2020 only for him to go back to playing poorly in 2021.

Baker vs Browns SB? Baker SB MVP with the redemption arc? Wonder how salty Brown fans would be lol

[Soggust]

I feel bad for Jags fans the same way I felt bad for Cleveland fans when we were doing this to Baker.

Here's the problem imo - 

What kind of 2024 really gets you excited to give him a huge contract? 

--------

If he plays worse, I think it's clearly time to talk about moving on.

If he plays the same or slightly better, you probably have to option/franchise until your fanbase forces your hand into a decision.

Even if he has a top 5 elite QB season, are we REALLY excited to give him big money? He will have had 2 bad years, one decent/good year and one great year. 

That's basically Lamar Jackson and, while Jackson got paid, certainly there was a lot of question about his value. And there will be questions about whether TL can reproduce the elite years when he's making 50m a year if we are already questioning his weapons and support.

And remember - This is absolute best case scenario. 

--------

Idk, I think the Allen/Burrow/Mahomes ceiling is slowly caving in, personally.

Short of an MVP-esque year next year (which I think is unfair expectations for any QB), I can't see a lot of scenarios where you are rushing to the checkbook to offer him a long term deal after next year. 

 

Edited January 8 by Soggust

[Tugboat]

1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said:

Fair points. 

A lot of my harsh criticisms of him really stem from the lack thereof from so many people. 

His situation was not that much worse than plenty. Urb being a scumbag doesn't negate his issues. On one hand, plenty of coaches have been scummy or as incompetent as Urb. 💩 is 💩 after all. On the other, Lawrence played under Dabo Swinney who is pretty scummy too. Overall, Urbs short tenure just doesn't hold up as an excuse. 

One of the biggest problems with even discussing Lawrence is evident enough back in the draft threads. Very few people actually critiqued him. He was the best ever and that was the end of the story (much like we've seen with Caleb Williams this year). That not only makes a lot of defenses of him pretty disingenuous, but it also happens to make the criticisms of him that can't really be denied stand out that much more. 

As a few have said, he's by no means a bust- though I know my criticisms of him could certainly be construed that way. He's just sort of....there? 

I look at his contemporaries like Herbert- he's been screwed by a poor supporting cast due to injuries and some awful coaching. It's clear as day that the Chargers problem is NOT Herbert. A lot of Jaguars fans are saying Lawrence isn't the issue now, but....yeah, he kind of is though. I get that he's not throwing to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokely, and Dallas Clark, but his supporting cast isn't the 2021 Texans either. If a QB needs a great supporting cast to secure his place in the top 1/2 of the league's starters, there's a problem. 

I felt that the red flags should have at least been raised when he barely out-performed Davis Mills their rookie year. Mills was far less hyped, he's less talented, and that Texans team was less talented and about as dysfunctional as Jacksonville was.

What I'm getting at is that Lawrence wouldn't be getting the same benefits of the doubt were he someone else. Now, that also comes with understanding that were he someone else, he wouldn't have been in position for anyone to justify the benefit of the doubt. Problem is the benefit  of the doubt he has enjoyed stems from his college career, hype, amd scouting reports that were all glowing- and they're things that don't hold a candle to actual NFL performances. Is it so cut and dry as to say he doesn't deserve some benefit of the doubt? No, I don't think so. The hype and scouting reports weren't written while he rode the bench. They came from somewhere and something. Their values are just now starting to diminish quicker than they were. 

The issue with relying too heavily on the great unknown but with flashes is that the same can be applied to practically everyone ever drafted highly or ascending to a starting job if people aren't willing to entertain the idea that maybe it was just not actually warranted. At some point, a spade is just a spade. Colin Kaepernick showed many flashes but the fact is he just never progressed. Carson Wentz still shows flashes every now and then. So on, so forth. Had ol Jake Locker gone to a better team not coached by a dweeb with a horrible supporting cast, maybe he too could have put it together and reached his potential, ya know? 

With Lawrence in particular, it's just not enough to show some improvement if one still holds onto the idea he's truly some generational prospect. A generational prospect is way better than Lawrence has been. Thus, you find yourself in the dilemma of "then what is he?". Average? Slightly above average? And once that's the accepted consensus, do average QBs get the benefit of the doubt regarding their coaches and weapons? Not usually. Usually they get replaced and traded elsewhere. I think a lot of people are very hesitant to admit what he is as opposed to what he was supposed to be.

To be clear, being a slightly above average QB is fine for me, and I think it's perfectly possible to be competitive with one. But a slightly above QB doesn't need to keep being treated like a generational talent and the reality needs to set in at some point.

Is that time now? Not necessarily. I think you're right regarding scheming and game planning. But the question does arise regarding how many changes Jacksonville makes in Lawrence's favor before that ceases to be the best option. 

 

My counterpoint to this would be...why does Herbert get so much extra leash?

 

He's had an extra year of being "better than a lot of people projected" but still not really winning anything, and that's also disappointing overall.  I don't really see why Herbert gets an extra year of "excuses".  They've both had messed up situations and turmoil, getting banged up, etc.  But Lawrence has still already done something Herbert has not.  He carried his team to a playoff win.  Without the help of that Hollywood allure to build a defense or lure/keep stars around him.

I just don't see why Herbert gets so much extra rope because he was "less popular" at the draft.  That doesn't even make sense.  People disliking, or even hating him at the draft doesn't make his comparable play any better.  Yet he's constantly lumped into an elite or top tier QB tier, while a bunch of people seem to want to see Lawrence fail and keep hammering on it.

 

It's just weird to me to carry that stigma of "generational QB prospect" into the conversation with an axe to grind.  Yes, that's what Lawrence was as a prospect.  He was virtually a "can't miss" prospect.  That's been borne out in that even his tumultuous "disappointing" career to date has been...above average.  Herbert came in with a lot of "bust" potential and has proven that wrong, but it feels like people are just trying to root for the underdog or something.

 

 

The other reason it's weird to compare the two...is that Herbert has played most of his career with not one, but two receivers better than the best Lawrence has ever had to work with.  When healthy, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are better than any of the scraps, spare parts, and castoffs the Jaguars have ever given Trevor at WR.

It seems like people are just going off name recognition and salary with Ridley and Kirk.  Rather than actually watching how utterly useless they are most of the time on the field and how poor a fit it is.  I don't think it's a super secret reveal that...the guy Lawrence actually prefers to throw to is Zay Jones who is a little bigger and more aggressive and aware of ball placement at the catch point.  A nobody who started to turn into a somebody when Trevor started throwing to him, but still absolutely Just A Guy.  And his only reliable target is...no way, it's big Evan Engram (who most people also thought was kind of a flake before hooking up with Lawrence).  Whereas Ridley and Kirk...they're just overpaid bums.  They'll take the easy yards if they're running free, but they'll lose every battle if it's a 50-50 ball and have a completely useless catch radius and don't generally run very good routes in the first place.

 

 

It's just wild to me that people are so willing to dump on him, despite clearly not watching the Jaguars consistently to understand what's going on.  That's why it's so unfortunate that the two primetime games were such an absolute mess.  He got injured in one and limped off down the tunnel.  Then he got concussed while playing with a serious wounded ankle and basically finished out the game like he was punch drunk.  That's not representative of what he can do.  But that's often what people see of the obscure Jaguar cat.

 

 

At the end of the day, i don't even really care because i've seen enough of Lawrence to say...he's the first and only Jaguars quarterback i've seen who has what it takes to potentially take the team to a Superbowl and win it without a truly insane, dominant surrounding cast.  When Bortle took them to within a missed called of the Superbowl, that was absolutely not him.  That was a historically good defense, Playoff Lenny, and receiving weapons better than anything Lawrence has had, playing at their absolute peak.  I don't think any Jaguars fan had much of a problem admitting that.  But again, still a pretty universal front against the "Trevor Lawrence isn't that good" slander.  Jaguars fans know bad QBs and haven't been shy about showing it.

 

Brunell was fine, but carried by elite receivers, an exceptional OLine, and a HoF RB, with a great defense.

Leftwich was a top pick but it didn't take long for people to turn on him when he showed he kinda sucked.

Garrard was the "well, he's better than the other guy" option but nobody ever had delusions of grandeur with that.

Gabbert had mixed reactions and quickly turned when all the worst parts clearly came out in the wash.

Bortles was a mess but at least the team was once, very briefly, good enough to win in spite of him.

Minshew Mania was basically a meme.

 

Jaguars fans know bad QBs and QBs you have to make excuses for as well as anybody.  It's all they've ever had.  Lawrence is genuinely different.  Not just because he was a high pick like some others...but because he's actually good.  It's hard to explain how different it is this time without suffering through so much awful QB play.

 

There are still only a very small handful of QBs i'd take over Lawrence right now, all things considered.  And that includes the two guys in this upcoming draft who i'd still easily keep Lawrence over.