BDL 2023 Week 9: Seoul Dragons @ Lancaster Werewolves

[Scoundrel]

 

BDL 2023 Week  9

Match:  Seoul Dragons @ Lancaster Werewolves

Away Owner:  @RedGold

Home Owner:  @rackcs

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[Scoundrel]

Seoul Dragons

Offense
QB:  Derek Carr
RB:   Kenneth Walker
WR: George Pickens
WR:  Brandin Cooks
TE:   Travis Kelce 
TE:  Trey McBride
LT:   Ronnie Stanley
LG:  Joe Thuney
😄    Mason Cole
RG: James Daniels
RT:  Anton Harrison
Bench:  RB Javonte Williams
Bench:  WR Mecole Hardman
Bench:  WR Tank Dell
Bench:  WR Rashod Bateman
Bench:  WR Kardarius Toney
Bench:  T Donovan Smith
Bench:  T Tytus Howard
Bench:  IOL Dylan Parham

Defense
DE:  Dayo Odeyingbo
DL:  Dexter Lawrence
NT:  DJ Reader
Edge:  Charles Omenihu
MLB:  CJ Mosley
LB:  De’Vondre Campbell
CB:  Trent McDuffie
CB:  Kenny Moore
NB:  Kyler Gordon
FS:  Daxton Hill
SS:  Kerby Joseph
Bench:  Edge Sam Williams
Bench:  Edge Derick Hall
Bench:  DL Khalen Saunders
Bench:  DL Foley Fatukasi
Bench: LB Damone Clark
Bench: CB Donte Jackson
Bench: NB Taron Johnson
Bench: Saf Richie Grant

 

Lancaster Werewolves

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
WR: Tyler Boyd
WR: Skyy Moore
TE: Juwan Johnson
LT: Braxton Jones (Q)
LG: Steve Avila
C : Mitch Morse
RG: Sam Cosmi
RT: Jawaan Taylor

RB: Tyler Allgeier
WR: Dyami Brown
WR: Kyle Philips
WR: Ben Skowronek
TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE: Tucker Kraft
OL: Evan Neal (Q)
OL: Joseph Noteboom

DE: T.J. Watt
DT: Kenny Clark
DT: Justin Madubuike
DE: Preston Smith
LB: Fred Warner
LB: Willie Gay Jr. (Q)
CB: Jaire Alexander
CB: Jalen Ramsey
CB: Brandon Stephens
FS: J.C. Jackson
SS: Keanu Neal

EDGE: Ogbo Okoronkwo
INT: Tedarrell Slaton
DL: John Franklin-Myers
DL: Calais Campbell
LB: Eric Kendricks (Q)
CB: Akayleb Evans
CB: Dane Jackson
S: Ji’Ayir Brown

[Scoundrel]

Seoul Dragons

Offense:
Formation/Scheme:  
 2WR/2TE(50%) , 3WR/1TE(30%), 2WR/2RB(20%)
West Coast passing game, set up with zone rushing attack.  
Pass (55%), Run (45%) 
Blocking:
Zone concepts in the running game, we want to get our guys blocking on the move and let our ball carriers pick when hole they want to hit.    TJ Watt will be our target in the passing game, we want to provide plenty of chips and fake chips from both our TE and RB’s.    We want to keep Watt focus on protecting the Edge in the running game and keep his get off in control with our 2 TE and 2 RB sets.

Passing game:
We want to focus on Level concepts this week,   and let Carr hit the correct windows.  Our RB and TE’s will be the focus in the middle of the field, and want to get them in space over the middle of the field.    We will play in plenty of tight bunch formations this week. We believe this will give us an advantage in the running game and keep the Lancaster Edge group in control in pass pro.   Target the RB’s and TE’s over the middle and let them plays in the YAC game, look for big shots over the middle to Pickens and Cooks deep.

Running game:  
We want to make sure we stick to the ground game throughout the entire contest.   Zone concepts against Lancaster is going to result is a sloppy contest, but we trust our RB’s and their ability to make the first guy miss.   While there may be some short/negative runs, we think we can get some nice chunk plays with our current RB’s.  Cooks and Hardman will both be used in the running game a bit this week,  we look to get them both a couple reverses and test Lancaster’s edge play to keep their containment.

Goal #1 -     Tight splits this week,   we want to win this matchup in the trenches 
Goal #2  -  Stay committed to the run game,  trust our RB’s to bounce wide when it’s open
Goal #3 -    Use TE’s to help control Edge play

 

 

Defense:
Base: 4-2 Nickel
Coverage:
Heavy zone concepts this week on the backend from Seoul.   We want to keep our defenders with their heads toward the QB.   We will rotate between Cover 1/3/4 this week for the most part.    3rd Downs, we will look to move McDuffie and Hill around more than usual, we look to show them both in the slot this week and send them occasionally.    They will be playing closer to the LOS this week in zone coverages,  we want them both playing in the short zones and really in attack mode reacting the Hurts.

Pass Rush:
Push in the interior pocket,   stay true to our rush lanes on the outside.   Don’t let Hurts escape outside.   Force Hurts to step out in the pocket where our zone defenders are playing.   3rd Down will feature some slot blitzes and McDuffie and Hill on occasion, but for the most part we want their Blitzing to read Hurts and be ready for his escape.   

Run Defense:
Rotate the big boys often,  we want to keep them fresh and playing disciplined football.   We trust our Front 4 in run defense and want them to focus on their rush lanes, moreso than focusing on getting off for pass rush.    Stay true to your rush lanes, let our Stack LB’s flow freely.    Lancaster is going to run the ball well because of their personnel, but we believe we can put up a solid fight with our Front.

Goal#1:   Play disciplined with Rush lanes along the Front 4
Goal#2:   Keep Lancaster from springing big plays in the run game
Goal#3:   Rally and tackle in the passing game

 

 

Lancaster Werewolves 

 

Lancaster Offense:
We think the Lancaster offense has finally found a groove in how it needs to operate to be successful and win the game. If we can benefit our defense as well (and keep them off the field more for rest), it’s all a huge plus in the end for them. We will continue with the plan of a 50/50 run pass split. You won’t find our offense in many 3rd and longs and that will keep the threat of run or pass open on any down. 

Even with Montgomery’s lingering injury, there is enough talent and legs between Gibbs, Allgeier, and Hurts to continue to wear down the opposing defense. You will see more stretches and outside runs from us this time - both because Gibbs is coming into his own (we continue with the 65/35 snap split with Tyler Allgeier) with his playmaking ability, as well as avoiding their interior talent at best. 20 personnel with Hurts out of the gun will also keep the defense guessing as to who is getting the ball. There was concern before about this with our tackles, but their improvement, and lining up against likely Omenihu and Ode, should be more than enough to successfully engage this plan. 

This in turn comes to the passing game. Because of the scheming to the outside, you’ll see just as much play action as ever from the team. The defense should have limited opportunities to successfully guess run or pass - especially in any 3rd and short to medium situations. Short screens and rollout dump offs to Juwan Johnson might set up nicely against this defense. I respect their backs, but I think we can still attack them with simple slants and outs. All of their backs sit under 6’ tall, so 1 on 1 physical matchups give us the 50/50 edge. With DeVante Parker out, we want to get some of our other weapons involved, rotating Moore, Brown, and Okonkwo in as our top reserves. I would expect at least two or three deep shots to D Brown because of it as well. Skyy Moore can handle 3rd WR/short field options for Parker and give Moore a handful of opportunities to make plays. Again, we will have chips as necessary, but similar to Week 8, we’re more concerned with the interior than exterior. 

This gameplan eats clock, keeps the defense fresh, and limits mistakes that give Seoul’s offense a short field from mistakes. Don’t expect a 40-36 game here, because you won’t get one, and that suits us just fine. 

For injury purposes, if Jones is a go, it’s him at LT and Taylor at right. If Jones is out, Taylor shifts to left and Neal is at RT. 

Lancaster Defense:
We’re a little undermanned on defense this week but we still think we have enough playmakers to get through the game and win. We want Watt and Warner to win this one. We want to put the game in Derek Carr’s hands and make him beat us.

We want to be very physical upfront this game and keep the pressure on Carr and the Seoul running backs. We feel we have some favorable matchups for our defensive line and expect them to keep Carr from having time to throw all day. We will be rotating our defensive linemen a lot today. With our safety group being super thin, this is an important part of the gameplan. We don’t want them to have time to let things develop downfield. We need T.J. Watt to step up today and win against Dawand Jones and we think he can do that. We also want to throw in some blitzes today to create more pressure throughout the game. We also want to be physical in coverage so expect to see press throughout the game in order to slow down the routes and make it harder for players to get downfield to make plays. We want to be physical against the run as well. Tedarrell Slaton will be rotating in plenty as a run stopper and we’ll also have Keanu Neal playing in the box for most of the game.

In coverage, we have a strong focus this week on shutting down Travis Kelce so we will be putting Fred Warner on him in single coverage. We know Travis Kelce will still make some plays but Warner is one of the best in the game and can limit Kelce, opening up the rest of the team to take care of the other players. Jalen Ramsey will take George Pickens, Jaire Alexander will take Brandin Cooks, and Brandon Stephens will take Tank Dell. We feel very comfortable with these assignments and their ability to cover. Willie Gay Jr. will take Kenneth Walker in coverage and key in on him throughout the game, ready for a run. Keanu Neal will play in the box and play a middle of the field zone. Occasionally he will blitz or Gay Jr. will blitz with Neal then taking on his assignment. J.C. Jackson will be playing a simple deep zone to try to catch any big plays that do develop. Again, we will be looking to play a lot of press this game to slow down the development of the passing plays and give the OL more time to get to the QB. Carr has resorted to check downs a lot throughout the season and we think we can force into that habit in this game as well.

[TedLavie]

I like Lancaster offensive plan. I really like it actually. The issue is their passing offense is so limited that it's easier for Seoul to play zone and let the defenders play the run facing the QB. Especially since I like Seoul LBs. And I don't think you can gameplan around that.

Opposite side, starting JC Jackson at FS s**** but Lancaster dodges a bullet here as I think Seoul makes the mistake of leaving Dell on the bench for Cooks and Hardman. Kelce will get his but I think Ramsey limits Pickens, and Lancaster DL can contain Seoul rushing attack. 

Close matchup, and I think surprisingly the difference here is Tre McBride. I think in a plan involving RBs and TEs heavily, he's able to get something around 7/70 which tip the scale for Seoul in a close, defensive affair. Seoul 13-10

[VigilantZombie]

This is one helluva matchup and Ted pinpointed m several things I also looked at.

I think Seoul gets the slight edge in a dog fight. I don't love JC Jackson as a FS and Keanu Neal, no matter where he is playing has not been great this season. I think the lack of stability on the back end of that defense is going to hurt Lancaster.

Seoul 14-13

[MikeT14]

6 hours ago, TedLavie said:

The issue is their passing offense is so limited that it's easier for Seoul to play zone and let the defenders play the run facing the QB.

I don't disagree with your statement, I would just like to hear more about what you see limited about it. 

[TedLavie]

4 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I don't disagree with your statement, I would just like to hear more about what you see limited about it. 

The weapons, aside from Pittman, are all severely underperforming and the OL isn't great by BDL standards 

[MikeT14]

2 minutes ago, TedLavie said:

The weapons, aside from Pittman, are all severely underperforming and the OL isn't great by BDL standards 

I figured, just wanted to make sure I was on the same page. Thanks!

[Blue]

Consistency is a ***** for both these teams at the skill positions. Gibbs is coming off his best game as a rusher by far, but it came behind a much better line than what Lancaster is putting out here. I'm going to go with the home team to pull off a close win.

[SirA1]

[rackcs]

You guys watch Braxton Jones now that he's healthy. I'm telling you guys, he's better than you think he is.

Queue him struggling coming off of his injury and me looking like an idiot.

[MD4L]

Some thoughts here

Why didn’t Lancaster put Ramsey at safety. Ramsey was used as a star with the Rams and obviously was an elite safety at FSU. Pickens did nothing on a Thursday Night game so not really the best usage of an elite player.

Secondly, while I get Jaire hasn’t been healthy yet, they are lucky Seoul didn’t put Tank Dell as a starter. Presumably, Stevens has had a good season but that had blow up potential with JC Jackson at safety. Ramsey kills multiple birds in that instance but Lancaster got lucky there.

Third point, while I’m a full believer in Warner as an absolutely elite player matching up in man coverage against Kelce is a different animal. Again, Ramsey at safety and form of shadow coverage with those two would’ve done wonders. I think Kelce has himself a day.

Fortunately for Lancaster, they don’t have to deal with much Tank Dell. Kelce will have a big game but they can still get after the QB and Carr has done well putting up good stats without a lot of points, which is expected here.

I think Hurts and the running game could face some issues against a stout rush and the secondary for Seoul is shining with Kenny Moore today. 

I think we get a generally low scoring game but both offenses have the talent to get drives down the field. This feels like the type of game Hurts figures out a way to win with some individual big plays getting the ball to his weapons, but I’m going to go with the upset here and rock with Seoul.

Seoul 20-15.