A 2024 OFF-SEASON PROJECTION (POST NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)

[Sllim Pickens]

So I was just looking at PFFs CB rankings.  I know you aren't into CBs yet, but I just saw a new name pop up.  Kamal Hadden from Tennessee.  SEC player, has allowed a passer rating against of 7 😲 this year.  QBs are 12 of 33 for 93 yards when throwing at him with 0 TDs and 3 INTs 😲.  He was solid but not great last year allowing a rating of 75 with 29 catches on 50 attempts with 2 TDs allowed and 2 INTs.  Last year he played 559 snaps in 9 games and this year only 311 in 7 games which is a little odd (62 plays a game down to 44) so need to follow up more on him but those numbers are insane.  

[Karnage84]

17 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

So I was just looking at PFFs CB rankings.  I know you aren't into CBs yet, but I just saw a new name pop up.  Kamal Hadden from Tennessee.  SEC player, has allowed a passer rating against of 7 😲 this year.  QBs are 12 of 33 for 93 yards when throwing at him with 0 TDs and 3 INTs 😲.  He was solid but not great last year allowing a rating of 75 with 29 catches on 50 attempts with 2 TDs allowed and 2 INTs.  Last year he played 559 snaps in 9 games and this year only 311 in 7 games which is a little odd (62 plays a game down to 44) so need to follow up more on him but those numbers are insane.  

This is quite intriguing.

I strongly believe that Quinyon is going to rise and should be someone that is taken in round 2. 

[Karnage84]

BUGGS		HT	WT	OVR	RDEF	PRSH	PRSH	PRSS	SCK	PRSS%	SCK%
McKinnley Jackson	Texas A&M	74	325	68.8	66	68.3	173	9	4	5.2%	2.3%
T'Vondre Sweat	Texas	76	362	91.3	90.8	85.5	188	19	1	10.1%	0.5%
Nazir Stackhouse	Georgia	75	320	71.2	76.3	57.7	132	2	2	1.5%	1.5%
Joseph Evans	UTSA	75	340	77.8	90.2	56.7	127	7	2	5.5%	1.6%
Evan Anderson	FAU	75	356	82.3	90.2	69	234	13	5	5.6%	2.1%

[Karnage84]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

BUGGS		HT	WT	OVR	RDEF	PRSH	PRSH	PRSS	SCK	PRSS%	SCK%
McKinnley Jackson	Texas A&M	74	325	68.8	66	68.3	173	9	4	5.2%	2.3%
T'Vondre Sweat	Texas	76	362	91.3	90.8	85.5	188	19	1	10.1%	0.5%
Nazir Stackhouse	Georgia	75	320	71.2	76.3	57.7	132	2	2	1.5%	1.5%
Joseph Evans	UTSA	75	340	77.8	90.2	56.7	127	7	2	5.5%	1.6%
Evan Anderson	FAU	75	356	82.3	90.2	69	234	13	5	5.6%	2.1%

Anderson is certainly intriguing. 

Sweat really seems like a dude. Some of these other guys have produced against lower competition (funny enough, Evans had a good game against FAU while Anderson had really good games vs Charlotte and East Carolina. 

[Louis Friend]

35 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

BUGGS		HT	WT	OVR	RDEF	PRSH	PRSH	PRSS	SCK	PRSS%	SCK%
McKinnley Jackson	Texas A&M	74	325	68.8	66	68.3	173	9	4	5.2%	2.3%
T'Vondre Sweat	Texas	76	362	91.3	90.8	85.5	188	19	1	10.1%	0.5%
Nazir Stackhouse	Georgia	75	320	71.2	76.3	57.7	132	2	2	1.5%	1.5%
Joseph Evans	UTSA	75	340	77.8	90.2	56.7	127	7	2	5.5%	1.6%
Evan Anderson	FAU	75	356	82.3	90.2	69	234	13	5	5.6%	2.1%

Stackhouse is someone who jumps out when just watching games. I haven’t really got into film breakdown yet, but he’s been noticeable.

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

This is quite intriguing.

I strongly believe that Quinyon is going to rise and should be someone that is taken in round 2. 

I have already seem him mocked in late Rd 2 and early Rd 3.  LTs WRs, EDGE and CBs generally rise as the draft gets closer because they are "premium positions" but his rise is deserved.  I don't know if he has or will get an in invitation but a strong showing at the Senior Bowl might really put him on the map.

[Karnage84]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZeFPl1G8T41WaWUatFQYr5ubRu3MxwZJC0HkhAXkP-Y/edit?usp=sharing

@Sllim Pickens 32 guys that fit the 'Cominsky' profile (at least in terms of size) with snaps at A Gap, B Gap, etc. 

[Karnage84]

NAME	SCHOOL	HT	WT	OVR	RDEF	PRSH	PRSH SNP	PRSS	SCK	PRSS %	SCK %		A GAP	B GAP	OVER	OUT	OFF
Shemar Turner	Texas A&M	76	290	78.9	68.3	84.1	188	28	4	14.89%	2.13%		3.0%	12.5%	25.8%	58.7%	0.0%
Darius Robinson	Missouri	77	296	79.4	78.9	74.5	192	26	6	13.54%	3.13%		0.0%	2.6%	23.4%	73.8%	0.3%
Trajan Jeffcoat	Arkansas	76	281	66.2	65.8	67.8	180	24	4	13.33%	2.22%		0.0%	2.8%	12.5%	84.7%	0.0%
Brandon Dorlus	Oregon	75	290	75.6	68.3	78.4	244	32	3	13.11%	1.23%		1.4%	43.3%	28.6%	25.5%	1.2%
Michael Hall	Ohio State	74	280	73.9	68.5	80	186	23	2	12.37%	1.08%		9.3%	83.2%	6.9%	0.0%	0.6%
JT Tuimoloau	Ohio State	76	270	76.4	68.5	78.7	251	30	4	11.95%	1.59%		0.0%	1.1%	0.6%	98.1%	0.2%
Howard Cross	Notre Dame	72	288	88	84.1	84.8	261	30	3	11.49%	1.15%		17.0%	80.9%	1.2%	0.4%	0.4%
Kori Roberson	SMU	75	286	70.2	60.8	76.6	130	14	2	10.77%	1.54%		2.4%	85.8%	8.5%	3.2%	0.0%
Braden Fiske	Florida State	77	297	68.2	64.2	70.1	205	20	1	9.76%	0.49%		24.7%	40.8%	5.6%	28.9%	0.0%
Davin Vann	NC State	74	280	78.5	76.3	70.4	289	28	6	9.69%	2.08%		1.6%	6.6%	61.8%	29.9%	0.2%
Simeon Barrow	Michigan State	75	290	75.4	76.8	75.3	220	20	2	9.09%	0.91%		4.9%	82.9%	12.3%	0.0%	0.0%

[Karnage84]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

NAME	SCHOOL	HT	WT	OVR	RDEF	PRSH	PRSH SNP	PRSS	SCK	PRSS %	SCK %		A GAP	B GAP	OVER	OUT	OFF
Shemar Turner	Texas A&M	76	290	78.9	68.3	84.1	188	28	4	14.89%	2.13%		3.0%	12.5%	25.8%	58.7%	0.0%
Darius Robinson	Missouri	77	296	79.4	78.9	74.5	192	26	6	13.54%	3.13%		0.0%	2.6%	23.4%	73.8%	0.3%
Trajan Jeffcoat	Arkansas	76	281	66.2	65.8	67.8	180	24	4	13.33%	2.22%		0.0%	2.8%	12.5%	84.7%	0.0%
Brandon Dorlus	Oregon	75	290	75.6	68.3	78.4	244	32	3	13.11%	1.23%		1.4%	43.3%	28.6%	25.5%	1.2%
Michael Hall	Ohio State	74	280	73.9	68.5	80	186	23	2	12.37%	1.08%		9.3%	83.2%	6.9%	0.0%	0.6%
JT Tuimoloau	Ohio State	76	270	76.4	68.5	78.7	251	30	4	11.95%	1.59%		0.0%	1.1%	0.6%	98.1%	0.2%
Howard Cross	Notre Dame	72	288	88	84.1	84.8	261	30	3	11.49%	1.15%		17.0%	80.9%	1.2%	0.4%	0.4%
Kori Roberson	SMU	75	286	70.2	60.8	76.6	130	14	2	10.77%	1.54%		2.4%	85.8%	8.5%	3.2%	0.0%
Braden Fiske	Florida State	77	297	68.2	64.2	70.1	205	20	1	9.76%	0.49%		24.7%	40.8%	5.6%	28.9%	0.0%
Davin Vann	NC State	74	280	78.5	76.3	70.4	289	28	6	9.69%	2.08%		1.6%	6.6%	61.8%	29.9%	0.2%
Simeon Barrow	Michigan State	75	290	75.4	76.8	75.3	220	20	2	9.09%	0.91%		4.9%	82.9%	12.3%	0.0%	0.0%

These are the guys that are 9% or above in pressure rate (Cominsky is 10.5% with a 0.5% sack rate). Only guy below that or right at that number is Florida State's Braden Fiske. He was a 12% pressure and 2.2% sack guy last year, so he'd be more in line with JT out of Ohio State if those numbers were upheld this year. For contrasts sake, Aidan Hutchinson had an 18% or 19% pressure rate in his last year at Michigan. 

Cominksy's snap breakdown

• A Gap = 6.4%
• B Gap = 12.1%
• Over Tackle = 57.1%
• Outside Tackle = 24.5%

There isn't any one guy that really matches up well with this usage. Not to say that it has to be exact but it wouldn't hurt if it was a bit closer. Davin Vann out of NC State is probably the closest matchup for Cominsky at this stage. 

[Karnage84]

RK	NAME	PRSH	PRESS	SACKS	PRESS%	SACK %
1	Danielle HunterMIN	342	14	3	4.1%	0.9%
2	Myles GarrettCLE	327	53	9	16.2%	2.8%
3	TJ Watt	278	57	10	20.5%	3.6%
4	Trey HendricksonCIN	310	77	9	24.8%	2.9%
5	Maxx Crosby	327	57	8	17.4%	2.4%
6	Justin MadubuikeBAL	343	41	6	12.0%	1.7%
7	Khalil  Mack
8	Josh Allen	256	57	17	22.3%	6.6%
9	Kayvon ThibodeauxNYG	289	47	9	16.3%	3.1%
10	Haason ReddickPHI	248	43	10	17.3%	4.0%
11	Micah ParsonsDAL	324	26	5	8.0%	1.5%
12	Leonard FloydBUF	183	42	4	23.0%	2.2%
13	Jonathan GreenardHOU	315	47	9	14.9%	2.9%
14	Boye MafeSEA	257	42	7	16.3%	2.7%
15	Jadeveon ClowneyBAL
16	Joey BosaLAC	347	70	7	20.2%	2.0%
17	Montez SweatCHI/WSH	279	48	11	17.2%	3.9%
18	Josh SweatPHI	375	33	6	8.8%	1.6%
19	AJ EpenesaBUF	449	58	13	12.9%	2.9%
		309	48	8	16.0%	2.8%

[Karnage84]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

RK	NAME	PRSH	PRESS	SACKS	PRESS%	SACK %
1	Danielle HunterMIN	342	14	3	4.1%	0.9%
2	Myles GarrettCLE	327	53	9	16.2%	2.8%
3	TJ Watt	278	57	10	20.5%	3.6%
4	Trey HendricksonCIN	310	77	9	24.8%	2.9%
5	Maxx Crosby	327	57	8	17.4%	2.4%
6	Justin MadubuikeBAL	343	41	6	12.0%	1.7%
7	Khalil  Mack
8	Josh Allen	256	57	17	22.3%	6.6%
9	Kayvon ThibodeauxNYG	289	47	9	16.3%	3.1%
10	Haason ReddickPHI	248	43	10	17.3%	4.0%
11	Micah ParsonsDAL	324	26	5	8.0%	1.5%
12	Leonard FloydBUF	183	42	4	23.0%	2.2%
13	Jonathan GreenardHOU	315	47	9	14.9%	2.9%
14	Boye MafeSEA	257	42	7	16.3%	2.7%
15	Jadeveon ClowneyBAL
16	Joey BosaLAC	347	70	7	20.2%	2.0%
17	Montez SweatCHI/WSH	279	48	11	17.2%	3.9%
18	Josh SweatPHI	375	33	6	8.8%	1.6%
19	AJ EpenesaBUF	449	58	13	12.9%	2.9%
		309	48	8	16.0%	2.8%

This is the top 10? top 15 of YTD sack leaders (there are some ties so we have a few extra guys). This is their college (last year) pass rush snaps, pressures and sacks. Danielle Hunter feels like an anomaly while the rest of the group generally fits the average. 

These also don't have to be 1st round guys - Hendrickson was a 3rd round pick; Maxx Crosby was a 4th rounder; Epenesa was a 2nd rounder, etc. 

[Just Want A Title]

On 11/16/2023 at 11:23 AM, Just Want A Title said:

Apparently, it is a "lower leg injury" rather than a knee injury.  Hopefully, it isn't something that needs a 12-month or more rehab cycle.

Whatever the injury is, the latest news on him says that he has a 6-8 week recovery time.  Unless teams have a concern about his long-term health, it shouldn't move the needle on DeJean Cooper's draft stock too much.

[Karnage84]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZeFPl1G8T41WaWUatFQYr5ubRu3MxwZJC0HkhAXkP-Y/edit?usp=sharing

@Sllim Pickens I've added the NT prospects into another tab. Split out the Cominsky prospects into their own tab. Working on the Harris grouping. 

There's also a few new names from PFN that fit the Cominsky mold. So we'll update those guys as well. 

[BigC421/]

I think we are all trying to live in the moment the best we can and enjoy every second of this season and we deserve it.  I really disagree however with the notion I’ve herd a lot that this is our year or this team is peaking.  Now it’s true that a lot of nfl windows tend to close way quicker than expected I kind of feel like this team is a year ahead of schedule.  Most of the our best players are still young and improving, we should have cap space going forward and likely another offseason or 2 of bringing in rental talent before we start looking at a very top heavy team from a salary stand point.  If a couple bounces went the other way again KC and LA , if yesterdays game got away we would be looking at this roster and thinking next year they are going to be something special if they can fill a few holes.  That’s what I’m expecting personally.  
 

 

[Louis Friend]

1 hour ago, BigC421/ said:

I think we are all trying to live in the moment the best we can and enjoy every second of this season and we deserve it.  I really disagree however with the notion I’ve herd a lot that this is our year or this team is peaking.  Now it’s true that a lot of nfl windows tend to close way quicker than expected I kind of feel like this team is a year ahead of schedule.  Most of the our best players are still young and improving, we should have cap space going forward and likely another offseason or 2 of bringing in rental talent before we start looking at a very top heavy team from a salary stand point.  If a couple bounces went the other way again KC and LA , if yesterdays game got away we would be looking at this roster and thinking next year they are going to be something special if they can fill a few holes.  That’s what I’m expecting personally.  
 

 

I agree. I think we are a few pieces away from being a top team and I think those pieces are pass rush and a blue chip corner.  Or having top picks is going to prevent us from getting the top guys at the positions so we need to be smart and keep addressing BPA in the draft and worry about holes in free agency.