BDL 2023 Week 12: Berlin Blitzkrieg @ Hungary Hippos

[RedGold]

BDL 2023 Week  12

Match:  Berlin  Blitzkireg @ Hungary Hippos

Away Owner:    @Ragnarok

Home Owner:     @PR @InjuredReserve

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[RedGold]

Berlin Blitzkrieg
QB – C.J. Stroud
RB – Isiah Pacheco
WR – Garrett Wilson
Slot – Brandon Aiyuk
WR – Drake London
TE – Darnell Washington
LT – Kolton Miller
LG – Ben Powers
C – Drew Dalman
RG – Nate Davis
RT – Tristan Wirfs

RB – Tony Pollard
RB – De’Von Achane
RB – Kenneth Gainwell
TE – Dallas Goedert
WR – Jayden Reed
WR – Romeo Doubs
OL – Ed Ingram
OL – Mike McGlinchey

DE – Trey Hendrickson
DT – Quinnen Williams
DT – Derrick Brown
DE – Baron Browning
LB – Terrel Bernard
LB – Jordyn Brooks
CB – Devon Witherspoon
CB – Benjamin St-Juste
CB – Christian Benford
SS – Antoine Winfield Jr
FS – Camryn Bynum

Edge 3 - Nik Bonitto
Edge 4 – Samson Ebukam
INT 3 – Kurt Hinish
INT 4 – DeMarvin Leal
LB 3 – Tremaine Edmunds
CB 4 – Deonte Banks
CB 5 – D.J. Turner
S3 – Juan Thornhill

 

 

 

 

 

Hungary

QB: Geno Smith
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: DK Metcalf
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: Brandon Powell
TE: TJ Hockenson
LT: Garrett Bolles
LG: Walker Little
C : Tyler Linderbaum
RG: Brandon Scherff
RT: Brian O'Neill

RB: Rachaad White
RB: Brian Robinson
WR: Donovan Peoples Jones
WR: Allen Lazard
TE: Daniel Bellinger
OC: Justin Brendle
OT: Blake Freeland
OG: Cesar Ruiz

Edge: Maxx Crosby
DT: Calijah Kancey
DT: Fletcher Cox
Edge: Will Anderson
LB: Ivan Pace Jr.
LB: Logan Wilson
CB: Jeff Okudah
NCB: Tre Brown
FS: Tracy Walker
SS: Harrison Smith
CB: Akhello Witherspoon
Edge: Jadeveon Clowney
Edge: Charles Harris
DT: Sebastian Joseph-Day
DT: Javon Kinlaw
LB: Zach Baun
CB: Roger McCreary
CB: Kei’Trel Clark
S: Donovan Wilson
 

Edited December 3, 2023 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Berlin

Offense
TL;DR – Use the RBs to fill Goedert’s role, stay balanced on offense, let Stroud make the correct reads.

Goedert is likely still out, but Achane is back, so we are going to make more use of 2 RB sets to have an RB serve a similar role.  Aside from that, we will run our standard offense.  If Goedert does play, he will be on a snap count as he works his way back.

Running Game
We want Pacheco to get at least 20 touches, Pollard to get 12, and Achane to get 12.  We will run inside and out.  With Davis back and Dalman/Powers playing well, we want to hit the interior of the Hungary defensive line particularly hard.  If we have a lead late, we will use Pacheco as a battering ram to chew up clock and close out the game. 

Passing Game
We will layer our routes so that Stroud can go through his progressions and attack the defense where they are vulnerable.  Aiyuk, Garrett, and Drake will switch up between deep, intermediate, and short routes to stress the secondary of Hungary.  We will give Stroud a check down option on all routes, but we will allow our RBs, especially Achane, a chance to push deeper and exploit man coverage in space.

3 WR – 40% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/Darnell/RB – We will use this set less commonly than usual with Goedert likely out.  Darnell will be more of a 6th OL and help in run and pass blocking to give our WRs and RB more time to get open.  Our WRs will run the full route tree.  Aiyuk plays the slot and sometimes he will motion across the formation, sometimes he will motion out to stack with the WR on his side, sometimes he will stay in place and we will snap quicker.  We will have Darnell release just enough to force Hungary to dedicate a defender to him. 

2 RB – 40% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/RB/RB – Our WRs will be lined up the same as the above formation.  Both RBs will start out in the backfield.  They are going to do just about every motion you can think of.  One will split out wide while the other stays, one will go to the slot while the other stays, both will split out, both will stay in.  We will run and pass from here evenly.

4 WR – 20% - Garrett/Drake/Aiyuk/Reed/RB – Spread offense for hurry up and 2 minute drill.  Stroud will typically be in shotgun here.  We will trust our OL to give Stroud time to go through his reads.  We want to give Reed opportunities from this set.

Defense
TL;DR – Play zone to take away the deep ball, mix in some man to get our defense off the field, let our DL win the LOS.

We are going to mix Cover 3 and 6 Zone throughout the game.  We will play Cover 1 Man roughly a third of the time, most commonly on 3rd down, to force an incompletion or tackle short of the line to gain.

Defensive Line
We think our defensive line has a decided advantage this week and we will rely on them to collapse the pocket and shut down the run game.  We will rotate to keep guys fresh as need be.

LBers
In man coverage, Bernard will have the RB.  Brooks will have Hockenson.

Cornerbacks
We will have our CBs shadow this week.  Witherspoon will have Metcalf.  Benford will have Lockett.  St-Juste will have Powell.

Safeties
Winfield is going to play up in the box to help shut down the run and sit in his zone when applicable.  In man, he is going to double Hock with Brooks to remove Goff’s safety blanket.  If they split Hock out wide, Winfield will follow him and Brooks will take a middle zone.   

Bynum will always be deep to defend against the explosive play, but will shade to Metcalf’s side in cover 1.

 

 

 

 

 

Hungary

Offense:

We are going to use WCO but we are going to open up our run game through the play action of our passing game.

Running Game:
The running game will be centralized through Mixon and Robinson. White will be used as an alternate pass down option. Geno is also an accomplished runner and can be used to get tough yardage in a pinch.

Passing Game: 
Geno is going to have time to go through his progressions and even the best CBs cannot keep up forever especially on an island.  We will have routes hit multiple layers each play.  We will also provide a deep option with DK or Lockett.  Hock and Mixon will be the safety valves if our WR core isn't open to take advantage of Berlin's linebackers. 

In 3WR, DK will lineup in the slot while Powell and Lockett have the outside boundary. This will help set up DK with an occasional streak route up the middle. WRs will have the entire route tree. Hock will also be a focal point that we want to get going early. Mixon and White will see screen passes out of the flat in this look as we believe his speed in the open field sets up to gash Berlin's defense.

In 2 TE sets, Bellinger will come onto the field. This will be more short yardage and goal line sets to help the running game and provide two large targets for Geno to throw to as he loves his TEs.
Occasionally we will run 4WR sets with DPJ. This provides Goff with another length WR that can help move the chains.

Defense:
Defense:  
Coverage: Cover 1 (Primarily) / Cover 3
Key Defensive Strategies for the Week:
Defensive Pressure:
Hungary comes into the final regular season week facing a strong Berlin offensive line. The Hungary defensive line gets a challenge it looks forward to as it closes out a year that has seen this unit grow with experience throughout the 2023 campaign. 
-    Edge Rushers: Maxx Crosby and Will Anderson are our highlights on the line and will need to fight Berlin’s OT strength this week. They come into this game to play the majority of snaps, spelled by Jadeveon Clowney.
-    Contain the Edge: Crosby and Anderson have been great for us against the run this year. They go into the game knowing the RB speed/versatility from Pacheco and Pollard and they will fight to contain the edge and avoid us getting gouged on outside runs.
-    Interior DL: Newly nominated “Defensive Rookie of the Month” Calijah Kancey gives us an inside pass rush threat that we will need against CJ Stroud. Kancey is supported by the veteran presence in Fletcher Cox to finish out a reliable defensive line.
-    Sebastian Joseph-Day is available to step in if Fletcher Cox (Questionable) cannot go this week and also in short yardage situations (to strengthen our interior run defense). Javon Kinlaw off the bench to spell Kancey to keep him fresh.
Blitz Strategy:
Against CJ Stroud and this OL we can’t solely rely on a 4 man pass rush. We go aggressive by sending a constant mix of blitz looks (approx. 25-30% of defensive snaps) coming from the LB and SS positions. Goal is to put pressure on the Berlin OL and Stroud with different blitz looks and to take pressure off our secondary (by limiting the time Stroud has to attack us in the air).
Coverage: Our coverage plan is detail below:
-    Ivan Pace (LB) and/or Harrison Smith (SS) with RB assignments (Pacheco/Pollard).
-    Logan Wilson responsible for TE coverage
-    Okudah and Ahkello Witherspoon starting, with Tre Brown in the slot. 
-    Roger McCreary off the bench when faced with 4 WR and/or 2 RB sets
Our Defensive line and blitz pressure will take the fight to Berlin. Its our last game of the season and we come in with nothing to lose. Lets attack with wild abandon, seek to apply pressure, force mistakes, and keep the game in range for our offense to take advantage. 
 

Edited December 3, 2023 by RedGold

[Blue]

Um...

Quote

We want Pacheco to get at least 20 touches, Pollard to get 12, and Achane to get 12.

So like 16 targets, on average more or less, to the starting receivers? Against this secondary? I think that's a really big mistake by Berlin. I think the blitz-heavy strategy of Hungary is going to gum up the middle where Berlin wants to run, and I think opening up the offense to Stroud in the face of a blitzing defense is putting too much pressure on him; for as good as he's been, he's still just a rookie. Combined with the offensive fireworks show Geno and the Hungary receivers put on this week, there's a lot I don't like here for Berlin. Taking Hungary in a Week 12 upset.

[Scoundrel]

I pulled a Ted voted for the wrong team. Shouldn’t read and vote before 6 am… my vote is for Berlin.

[InjuredReserve]

5 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

I pulled a Ted voted for the wrong team. Shouldn’t read and vote before 6 am… my vote is for Berlin.

Gross - 

Don't you see that Blue liked our defensive gameplan. UPSET baby. Don't fight it, let it happen.

[MWil23]

Hungary had a nice plan and what a week to go up against Geno and Metcalf with a pretty subpar Mixon turning back the clock to when he was competent and capable. 

Hungary wins this one by double digits.

[TedLavie]

Look I understand Berlin TE situation is pretty dire, but a 2RB sets co-base offense is just not working for me. Similarly to base 4 WRs, there are reasons teams don't do it IRL (aside from Atlanta I suppose but at least Cordarelle is RB/WR) - even those with great pass catching RBs, which isn't the case of Berlin. I would have actually liked a 4WR set at 40% of the snaps more, and that's saying something.

Aside from that, I think Hungary D is a bad matchup for Berlin O. Berlin has great tackles but I don't think there's a much better edge duo to seal the edge than Crosby/Anderson. Hungary weakness is more inside but that's not really where Berlin strength lies in the running game. I do like Stroud and his weapons again, but with pressure brought by Hungary and schematic issues I've talked about, I think this matchup advantage is a bit hampered.

On the other side, Berlin DL is still great but I really like Hungary OL as well so they'll hold up better than most. Hockenson is awesome and I think he has a big game, but I wonder where comes the rest of the offense comes from? Don't see Hungary running it well, Lockett has regressed and I like Witherspoon actually. 

With a 3rd guy behind Metcalf/Hock, I'm probably voting Hungary, but I think Berlin takes it on a 4th quarter drive. 20-17

[MD4L]

I get wanting to establish a run game but how many pass attempts is Stroud getting with 44 combined touches to RBs. I get that strategy if it’s a weak QB but this limits whatever capabilities Stroud has. Unless Berlin was running an uptempo offense, if they max out as 70 plays Stroud is looking at 26 max pass attempts not including sacks. 
 

On the other side, putting Witherspoon on Metcalf is quite the task. Witherspoon is good around the ball and is already amongst the best in open field. Asking him to shadow (and a much bigger player at that) is quite the task and also removes him from what’s helped him accumulate such a strong profile in his rookie season.

Two things stand out to me and decide this game. 

1 - Berlin’s pass offense: They surely limited Stroud’s game script which sort of sucks because his best game this year have been on tangible volume. They also have the WRs to really make life hard on the opposing secondary. Their run game will help but it’s the pass offense I think that makes a big difference with their stout tackles against a heckling pass rush.

2. Berlin’s pass rush: Is a tough task for Hungary. They will hold up for Geno more than most (and can definitely rely on DK to make plays) but I think the Berlin DTs and Hendrickson can frustrate drives. Whether it’s holding a long drive to a FG or getting a quick stop or two that matters in this game.

I see points being easy to accumulate. Both offenses have strong performances. Both defenses get an occasional stop, but one additional drive that leads to a TD/FG for Berlin results in a FG/no points for Hungary and that decides it here.

Berlin 31-27

Edited December 7, 2023 by MD4L