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BDL Discussion Thread 2024


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  1. Anchorage 

Franchise Cornerstone: Jesse Bates

Quality Starter: Talanoa Hufanga+

Competitive Starter: Caden Stearns

Quality Depth: Richie Grant, Percy Butler, Christian Izien

Total Points: 17pts

Shut up Scoundrel 


 

  1. Cancun 

Quality Starter: Marcus Williams+, Geno Stone, Jalen Pitre

Quality Depth; Darnell Savage

Total Points: 14pts

A great 3 pack of complementary skill sets even though I don’t think Marcus Williams is quite the cornerstone he was anymore

 

  1. New Orleans 

Franchise Cornerstone: Derwin James

Quality Starter: Julian Love

Competitive Starter: Taylor Rapp

Quality Depth: Adrian Amos

Incomplete Evaluation: Tykee Smith

Replacement Level: Micah Hyde

Total Points: 14pts

Derwin is a cornerstone and Love is a great running mate for him

 

  1. Berlin 

Franchise Cornerstone: Antoine Winfield Jr+

Competitive Starter: Juan Thornhill, Cameron Bynum

Incomplete Evaluation: LJ Skinner

Total Points: 12pts

The All Pro Winfield is the headliner and a couple nice compliments to him to play next to him.

 

  1. Raleigh 

Quality Starter: Budda Baker+

Competitive Starter: Justin Reid+, Reed Blankenship, Ifeatu Melifonwu

Total Points: 12pts

Baker isn’t quite the superstar he was a couple years ago, but still a high quality safety with 3 strong competitive starters behind him lands Raleigh in the top 5.

 

  1. Lancaster  

Franchise Cornerstone: Minkah Fitzpatrick+

Competitive Starter: Jai’ayir Brown

Quality Depth: Jasson Pinnock, Darrick Forest

Total Points: 12pts

Minkah is an impact player in the back end but some depth is left to be desired.

 

  1. Rome 

Franchise Cornerstone: Kyle Hamilton+

Quality Starter: Andre Cisco

Incomplete Evaluation: Dadrion Taylor Demerson

Total Points: 12pts

A pretty impressive ranking for only having 2 players contributing points.

 

  1. Cuba 

Franchise Cornerstone: Xavier McKinney

Quality Starter; Chauncy Gardner Johnson

Replacement Level: JT Woods, Justin Simmons

Total Points: 11pts 

Maybe the best duo in BDL. If/when Simmons signs, Cuba will easily find themselves in the top 5.


 

  1. Svalbard 

Quality Starter: Jabrill Peppers

Competitive Starter: Kam Curl, Alohi Gillman, Quentin Lake

Incomplete Evaluation: Sydney Brown, Juanyah Thomas

Replacement Level: Tycen Anderson

Total Points: 10pts

There is a lot of depth and quality here but a lack of superstar talent.


 

  1. Hungary 

Quality Starter: Harrison Smith

Competitive Starter: Kevin Byard

Quality Depth: Russ Yeast, DeMarrco Hellmans, Rodney Thomas, Quan Martin

Incomplete Evaluation: Malik Mustapha

Total Points: 10pts

Hungary raiding the retirement home for their starting duo. A couple intriguing names behind them, but nothing I’d be comfortable relying on if needed.

 

  1. Las Vegas 

Franchise Cornerstone: Javon Holland

Competitive Starter: Xavier Woods

Quality Depth: Jeremy Chinn

Total Points: 10pts

Holland and Woods are a strong duo. Chinn hasn’t developed into the player we thought after a strong start to his career.

 

  1. Ivory Coast 

Quality Starter; Kyle Dugger+

Competitive Starter: Jordan Fuller, Jordan Whitehead

Replacement Level: Lewis Cine

Total Points: 9pts

Dugger is a strong headliner and Fuller and Whitehead are good BDL starters. A strong trio but a lack of a true to end talent maybe slides them back a bit.

 

  1. Akureyri 

Competitive Starter: Grant Delpit, Kerby Joseph

Quality Depth: Bryan Cook, Jordan Battle, Nick Cross, 

Incomplete Evaluation: Kam Kintchens

Replacement Level: Marquese Bell

Total Points: 8pts 

Delpit and Joseph are a pretty intriguing duo with upside. Cook, Battle, Cross and Kintchens are a lot of young players that should have opportunity to prove this to be a better group than this ranking suggests.

 

  1. Quebec 

Competitive Starter: Malik Hooker+, Jaquan Brisker

Incomplete Evaluation: Jaden Hicks

Total Points: 5pts 

A strong due in Hooker and Brisker but absolutely no depth behind them

 

  1. Greenland 

Quality Starter: Tyrann Mathieu

Quality Depth: Jordan Poyer

Incomplete Evaluation: Calen Bullock

Total Points: 5pts 

Another geriatric crew that Greenland hopes will age like wine but might be aging like milk and no proven depth behind them in case the milk goes sour.

 

  1. CWM 

Competitive Starter: Trevon Moehrig+

Quality Depth: Dane Belton

Incomplete Evaluation: Tyler Nubin, Antonio Johnson

Total Points: 4pts 

Moehrig and Belton might be a passable duo, but they really need to add some impact from the tank

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Defensive Rankings (the lower the number the better)

  1. Anchorage 15pts (Shut up Scoundrel)

  2. New Orleans 27pts

  3. Berlin 32pts

  4. Raleigh 32 pts

  5. Akureyri 33pts

  6. Quebec 38pts

  7. Rome 39pts

  8. Hungary 39pts

  9. Lancaster 40pts

  10. Cuba 41pts

  11. Svalbard 41pts

  12. Ivory Coast 48pts

  13. Cancun 51 pts

  14. Greenland 54pts

  15. CWM 65pts

  16. Las Vegas 67pts 

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Power Rankings

Adjusted for positional value

Highest Value Positions- QB (-3 points for being in top 5)

High Value Positions- WR, OL, EDGE, CB (-2 for being in top 5)

Moderate Value Positions- DT, RB (-1 for being in top 5)

Low Value Positions- LB, TE, S (you don’t get shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit) 

 

  1. Anchorage- 52pts

  2. Cancun 64pts

  3. Berlin- 66pts

  4. Rome 67pts

  5. New Orleans 68pts 

  6. Svalbard 72pts

  7. Akureyri 73pts

  8. Raleigh 74pts

  9. Ivory Coast 80pts

  10. Lancaster 81pts

  11. Cuba 84pts

  12. Hungary 84pts

  13. Greenland 88pts

  14. Quebec 93pts

  15. Las Vegas 101pts

  16. CWM- 119pts

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On 6/26/2024 at 7:18 AM, Ragnarok said:

No, no he doesn't.

Both players crush Mixon on yards per carry which is what matters most.  Plus, you can't watch the games and say Mixon has been more effective than either of those guys.  And all three guys have played 30 or 31 games over the last two years.

I wouldn't call .6 YPC "crushed" I wouldn't even say .7 Cornerstone Barkley or .8 fellow quality starter T. Etienne would fit that description but sure better than on the supposed "most important stat" we won't mention the 1.7 YPR Mixon had on these two or the fact he touched the ball 45-60 times more than either with 0 FL (some say most important stat?) unlike the those two. But I didn't make the statement to defend Mixon's past, I believe with the improved O-line and still high power offense he shows us improved stats better than what he produced the past couple seasons

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8 hours ago, vikes635 said:

I wouldn't call .6 YPC "crushed" I wouldn't even say .7 Cornerstone Barkley or .8 fellow quality starter T. Etienne would fit that description but sure better than on the supposed "most important stat" we won't mention the 1.7 YPR Mixon had on these two or the fact he touched the ball 45-60 times more than either with 0 FL (some say most important stat?) unlike the those two. But I didn't make the statement to defend Mixon's past, I believe with the improved O-line and still high power offense he shows us improved stats better than what he produced the past couple seasons

Even "just" .5 YPC is a massive difference at the NFL level.

Consider you have Player A averaging 4.5 YPC and Player B averaging 5.0 YPC. Across 200 carries (which is only around 12 carries per game, so not exactly a traditional workhorse back), Player A totals 900 yards while Player B totals 1000 yards. This is only 7-8 yards per game on average, but that's nearly an extra first down per game--and again, we aren't even talking about an every-down player.

If we look at Mixon specifically, he was 5th in the NFL with 257 carries. If we assume Swift maintains his YPA over the same number of carries, Swift produces 148 rushing yards more than Mixon, nearly 9 yards per game more (8.7 extra YPG)--effectively an extra first down per game. That's a big difference, especially if you consider that Swift is more likely to produce that higher YPA through a single big chunk play rather than grinding out a little extra yardage each time he touches the ball.

Of course, that's not really how this works because YPA usually drops off quite heavily around the 220 carries mark and no one can reasonably expect a historically-fragile player like Swift to maintain that level of effectiveness at that level. But I am a strong believer in per-play efficiency and Mixon is not efficient at all. He's been on a very downward trajectory for years now, and I think Houston could have done better at the position while using fewer resources to do it.

You know what, I'm not going to stick with Mixon being inefficient overall. He's actually been pretty solid in the passing game--but we do have to take into account the Cincinnati offensive talent and scheme around him. He got plenty of YAC room underneath thanks to Chase and Higgins on the outside along with Burrow's propensity for downfield passing, and personally I think that juiced his numbers a bit.

Edited by Blue
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9 hours ago, Blue said:

Of course, that's not really how this works because YPA usually drops off quite heavily around the 220 carries mark and no one can reasonably expect a historically-fragile player like Swift to maintain that level of effectiveness at that level

Exactly glad you can see that, I like how you credit talent around him in the passing game to support your case but say nothing to the fact the offensive line talents between the teams are vastly different, not to mention Philly and KC draw plenty of attention away from their RBs in the passing game as well yet Mixon out performed both. Best ability is availability so I'm confused how a Swift or Pacheco makes it into a higher tier when statistically in every category Mixon out performed them except in YPC to which he slightly out performed names we all  Barkley and Etienne but for some reason they get a pass and still crowned with a higher rank ( to which I agree btw ) but it doesn't support your YPC rebuttal. I do like the well thought out post back at me though Blue it was fun to feel the passion in your writing lol. I am also aware you didn't rank these RBs in the first place but you did decide to co-sign on them with Mixon anyway. It should be fun to watch the year play out and see if Mixon really is dust as you seem to believe or if in fact I am correct and he wows us 🙂... 

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20 hours ago, vikes635 said:

I wouldn't call .6 YPC "crushed" I wouldn't even say .7 Cornerstone Barkley or .8 fellow quality starter T. Etienne would fit that description but sure better than on the supposed "most important stat" we won't mention the 1.7 YPR Mixon had on these two or the fact he touched the ball 45-60 times more than either with 0 FL (some say most important stat?) unlike the those two. But I didn't make the statement to defend Mixon's past, I believe with the improved O-line and still high power offense he shows us improved stats better than what he produced the past couple seasons

A half-yard difference per carry is huge for the reason blue stated.  And Swift and Pacheco each lost one fumble, so its not like either of them lost a half-dozen fumbles or anything.

Not to mention the eye test.  Both Pacheco and Swift were far more dangerous and explosive than Mixon last year.

I would have more faith in Mixon if he had gone from Carolina or Arizona or somewhere where he faced a loaded box.  He had a light box every carry last year.

I do think he can be a very solid 3rd down back due to receiving and blocking skills.  But unlike Swift and Pacheco, I don't think he can be an NFL #1, much less a BDL #1.

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