Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The only decision that I immediately didn't support out of those decisions (not counting running the ball on third down at the end which is a different topic of conversation) was the field goal that would have put them up 3 scores. 4th and 2 or 45 yard field goal, at the time before the numbers, I thought they should have kicked that one because I thought it was perfectly fine to trade field goals. Time and points were the 49ers enemy at that juncture. Once I saw the numbers between Detroit offense and Badgley's career, was for more open to why they made that choice. Was always fine going for it on the 4th and 3 over a 48 yard field goal. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 32 minutes ago, Forge said: The only decision that I immediately didn't support out of those decisions (not counting running the ball on third down at the end which is a different topic of conversation) was the field goal that would have put them up 3 scores. 4th and 2 or 45 yard field goal, at the time before the numbers, I thought they should have kicked that one because I thought it was perfectly fine to trade field goals. Time and points were the 49ers enemy at that juncture. Once I saw the numbers between Detroit offense and Badgley's career, was for more open to why they made that choice. Was always fine going for it on the 4th and 3 over a 48 yard field goal. You can easily see the logic of wanting to extend that initial 2nd half drive. Bleed more clock while giving your kicker an easier try or gaining an even bigger advantage by punching it in. Likely a stake in the 9ers heart if Reynolds holds onto that ball. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Lol this blood fued between the analytics community and gut-math coalition is the gift that keeps on giving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15 hours ago, stl4life07 said: I was listening to the PFF podcast and one of them was saying how the Lions early in the game was playing like they were the 7.5pt underdogs with trick plays. When they built the 17pt lead they kept playing like they were the 7.5pt underdogs. Exactly this. I said to my wife all game after they built the lead they they didn't need to go out and win the second half, they just had to be smart and not make mistakes to lose it but Campbell doesn't know how to adjust his mindset. When you have a 2 score lead against the #1 seed with a SB on the line, you take the points to go up 3 scores every time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 11 minutes ago, JonStark said: Exactly this. I said to my wife all game after they built the lead they they didn't need to go out and win the second half, they just had to be smart and not make mistakes to lose it but Campbell doesn't know how to adjust his mindset. When you have a 2 score lead against the #1 seed with a SB on the line, you take the points to go up 3 scores every time. Most treat the FG as automatic points and the 4th down try as a gamble, right? The argument is if you can get to 17 at that point in the game you take it every time. What happens if we treat them as both automatic? Let's say Campbell trots out Badgley and he drills the FG but the 9ers are offsides. Do you keep the points on the board and stay with the 17 point lead or take the first down at the 22 only up 14? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, JonStark said: Exactly this. I said to my wife all game after they built the lead they they didn't need to go out and win the second half, they just had to be smart and not make mistakes to lose it but Campbell doesn't know how to adjust his mindset. When you have a 2 score lead against the #1 seed with a SB on the line, you take the points to go up 3 scores every time. You are right. The Lions had no business blowing a 17pt lead with a very good if not great OC and a talented roster. Its not like they had a ton of overachievers. They were pushing around the Niners on the ground with a great OL and two dynamic backs. Yes Gibbs fumbled but from what I heard after that fumble he never got another touch in the game. Thats a crime. I didnt listen to any press conferences but did anyone give an explanation as to why Gibbs didnt get another touch after the fumble? And then people can blame Reynolds for those big drops but why not draw up plays to go to your best player in St. Brown? When the game is collapsing right in front you go to your best player. Reynold isnt the Lions best player. Mahomes will be going to Kelce. Stafford will be going to Kupp. Cousins will be going to Jefferson. Allen will be going to Diggs. I can go on and on. Yet Goff went to Reynolds??? The difference between the Lions and the Rams in regards to Goff is when he was in a Rams uniform you better believe in that same situation he is going to Kupp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detfan782004 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, stl4life07 said: You are right. The Lions had no business blowing a 17pt lead with a very good if not great OC and a talented roster. Its not like they had a ton of overachievers. They were pushing around the Niners on the ground with a great OL and two dynamic backs. Yes Gibbs fumbled but from what I heard after that fumble he never got another touch in the game. Thats a crime. I didnt listen to any press conferences but did anyone give an explanation as to why Gibbs didnt get another touch after the fumble? And then people can blame Reynolds for those big drops but why not draw up plays to go to your best player in St. Brown? When the game is collapsing right in front you go to your best player. Reynold isnt the Lions best player. Mahomes will be going to Kelce. Stafford will be going to Kupp. Cousins will be going to Jefferson. Allen will be going to Diggs. I can go on and on. Yet Goff went to Reynolds??? The difference between the Lions and the Rams in regards to Goff is when he was in a Rams uniform you better believe in that same situation he is going to Kupp. That's a major issue I have mentioned in Det forum. Gibbs never got to atone for his mistake. You rode his back to get there when Montgomery missed time but then you turned your back on him after one mistake. That was a huge mistake because he was a good mismatch on offense against SF 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, detfan782004 said: That's a major issue I have mentioned in Det forum. Gibbs never got to atone for his mistake. You rode his back to get there when Montgomery missed time but then you turned your back on him after one mistake. That was a huge mistake because he was a good mismatch on offense against SF Yeah he was gashing the Niners. He made one mistake and got pulled. And thats the 12th overall pick that like you said the Lions rode all season long and he did spectacular things. Hopefully Lions fans will get an answer to why he never got a touch after that mistake bc it was weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detfan782004 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) 1 minute ago, stl4life07 said: Yeah he was gashing the Niners. He made one mistake and got pulled. And thats the 12th overall pick that like you said the Lions rode all season long and he did spectacular things. Hopefully Lions fans will get an answer to why he never got a touch after that mistake bc it was weird. Ben Johnson got too cute. Detroit went away from what was gonna win the game. The run game. SF didn't stop Det. Detroit stopped Detroit. They gave up what was successful on offense and then refused to get out of base defense that SF shredded in 3rd Edited January 30 by detfan782004 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 11 hours ago, Forge said: Depends on what you are considering top 5 defenses (which I wouldn't consider the niners, but they played relatively few top ten defenses even, so it's all kind of the same), but on 4th and 3 or less: Against KC: 1 for 2 Baltimore: 0 for 1 (they were 2 for 6 total, but the others were all over three yards. 4th and 10, 4th and 8, etc) Dallas: 2 for 2 So just those three, 60%. Technically, New Orleans, Tampa and Vegas were all top ten scoring defenses (saints and Tampa were tied for fifth). They didn't go for one against the saints or bucs, were 1 for 1 against the raiders (actually made two though) Chicago and Green Bay were actually both top five in 4th down stop rate, but seems like a fairly small sample Wow the Niners defense was worse than I thought. Going off of yards per play, Niners were 9th. Either way though, I think my point is valid - you are far more likely to have offensive success against bad defenses. That should be taken into account with analytics, so throwing out a blanket "this is how successful this team was" doesn't necessarily apply. I think Campbell had to kick the FG when they were up 14. A risk, but worth the risk IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Towerbridge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 34 minutes ago, FrantikRam said: Wow the Niners defense was worse than I thought. Going off of yards per play, Niners were 9th. Either way though, I think my point is valid - you are far more likely to have offensive success against bad defenses. That should be taken into account with analytics, so throwing out a blanket "this is how successful this team was" doesn't necessarily apply. I think Campbell had to kick the FG when they were up 14. A risk, but worth the risk IMO. Lol a risk. Doing the normal decision is now a risk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, Towerbridge said: Lol a risk. Doing the normal decision is now a risk "normal decision" that has a lower success rate than the "risky" decision 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said: Lol this blood fued between the analytics community and gut-math coalition is the gift that keeps on giving. Sure....just tell people how to quantify momentum and it can be added in. What are the figures for momentum? Is a missed field goal worth less momentum to the other side than a 4th down stop? If so, by how much? How much does impact does momentum have on a play? Does momentum juice the team with it, or impair the team withstanding it? Did momentum make Reynolds drop the ball? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Towerbridge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, Forge said: "normal decision" that has a lower success rate than the "risky" decision If that were true most coaches would go for it on 4th there. They would kick the field goal. If your field goal kicker is complete crap I could understand Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Towerbridge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 If that field goal was a 53-55 yarder, I could understand going for it. It was under 50. You kick it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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