TecmoSuperJoe Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Think I might be over the loss, as irrationally as I may have behaved with my statements postgame. The older I get the quicker the "healthy" perspective comes along following a gut-crushing defeat. I know it's not the same for everyone. This is still one of the worst losses ever. It ranks pretty high. I saw the various videos from the players, and coaches in the 48 hours following the game. Listened to some quality commentary from 49ers content creators/scribes I respect. Thought about the possibilities moving forward. I was mad at Kyle like everyone else. After thinking about it, while some of his decision making did tick me off, this 2nd SB loss had a lot of crap go against him irrespective of his abilities as a strategist. He does get some flak for not having a better OL set up, especially on the right side. This team desperately needs better pass blockers. Some of the best coaches, HOF coaches, never even won a single championship. George Allen, Chuck Knox, Marv Levy, Marty Schottenheimer, Bud Grant. Kyle is 44, at least has time on his side. He's on the same page with John, and Jed. Whether it's with this core group of 49ers or not, they are running a quality organization. Strangely, I am excited to see how the team can get better, because Kyle was as close as he's ever been. As illogical as it is, I'm thinking more about that instead of how hard it would be to get back. So...in summary... 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49ersfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 2019, I thought we'd be back since we just let the game slip through our fingers 2021, I thought we'd be back since we were getting an upgrade at QB the next season (i thought it would be Lance, turned out to be Purdy) 2022, I thought we'd be back since we literally ran out of QB's 2023 hurts the most. We rematched the team who beat us in 2019, our shot at redemption. We had several upgrades across the team. We were better than them all year. We were relatively healthy entering the game. And we still lost. We have no guarantee of getting back. And if we do, how could any of us be confident in a win? 2023 hurts the most. The optimism is just gone Edited February 14 by 49ersfan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarkfn2284 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 hours ago, Forge said: As long as he considered it in the thought process, that's fine. I have no complaints. It's poker matchup. There are some coaches who aren't going to go for 2, and even with Mahomes Reid has a weird tendency sometimes to play it safe, so I don't think its a foregone conclusion. So if he evaluated that and thought, "yeah, they may go for 2, but its still more important to me that we have the ball first in actual sudden death", then I can't hate him for that. It's a preference thing. It's not my preference, but there are a bunch of people out there who really are just fine with the idea. I do think that there are other considerations to take into account at that exact time as well such as the defense needing to get off the field that can't just be evaluated in a vacuum. That's situational. Now personally? I'm a give me the ball second, guy. I want the information and I want the decision to potentially end the game. That's control that I want. But again, preference thing not backed by empirical data yet. Ultimately, I agree with @jonnguy2015 that the flaw is that if you're taking the ball first, it's pedal to the metal get a TD. I had some issues with the sequencing at the end...I think when you're third and 4 at that spot, you should be thinking 4 down territory, even if you ultimately don't go for it on 4th down (play third down as if you'll go for it on 4th, evaluate 4th down after third down has completed). I feel like he had made the decision that they were kicking it when he made that 3rd down playcall. I just can't imagine a World where anyone would think that Reid would not allow Mahomes to win or lose it. His strength versus the Niners weakness. I don't care about the Niners defense being gassed. You're getting the ball either way and if that required Purdy and the offense to have to go down and score then so be it. Shanahan's strength is offense. He has more data at that point in terms of what he needs and 4 downs to move the chains every time. Also, if we are so concerned with the defense being tired, why not call a timeout before the game winning play? It just does not rationally add up for me. Kyle continues to mis manage situations and then doesn't seem to learn or acknowledge it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, clarkfn2284 said: I just can't imagine a World where anyone would think that Reid would not allow Mahomes to win or lose it. His strength versus the Niners weakness. I don't care about the Niners defense being gassed. You're getting the ball either way and if that required Purdy and the offense to have to go down and score then so be it. Shanahan's strength is offense. He has more data at that point in terms of what he needs and 4 downs to move the chains every time. Also, if we are so concerned with the defense being tired, why not call a timeout before the game winning play? It just does not rationally add up for me. Kyle continues to mis manage situations and then doesn't seem to learn or acknowledge it. Here's the thing, and again, I'm a take the ball second guy....your primary defense of this is about result that happens far less than you think. You're basically making your decision based on the worst possible outcome (A Td) which doesn't happen every drive. At this point of the game, the Chiefs had 1 td on 12 drives (less than 10%). I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but they had around 37 offensive tds in 180-185 drives or so, which is roughly 20% td rate? Lets adjust slightly for dead drives (kneel downs and what not) and maybe you kick that to 30-33%? 1 in 3? And then you have to consider the times where the opponent is not going to go for 2 So all the focus on "oh they are going to go for 2" on something doesn't happen nearly as much as we think. So I really don't have a problem if Shanny thought the most important thing was having the ball first in actual sudden death and wanted to give the defense a break. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Crappy af what happened to the chiefs parade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarkfn2284 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 54 minutes ago, Forge said: Here's the thing, and again, I'm a take the ball second guy....your primary defense of this is about result that happens far less than you think. You're basically making your decision based on the worst possible outcome (A Td) which doesn't happen every drive. At this point of the game, the Chiefs had 1 td on 12 drives (less than 10%). I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but they had around 37 offensive tds in 180-185 drives or so, which is roughly 20% td rate? Lets adjust slightly for dead drives (kneel downs and what not) and maybe you kick that to 30-33%? 1 in 3? And then you have to consider the times where the opponent is not going to go for 2 So all the focus on "oh they are going to go for 2" on something doesn't happen nearly as much as we think. So I really don't have a problem if Shanny thought the most important thing was having the ball first in actual sudden death and wanted to give the defense a break. I get it doesn't happen often. The odds of Mahomes scoring a TD in OT were decent enough to think about this. They had moved the ball consistently in the 2nd half, the defense was cooked at the end of regulation and overall the defense is the weakness of your team. We can look at TD%, but at some point you have to assess from what is seen on the field in that moment. In regards to the 2pt conversion, this isnt week 8. It's the Super Bowl and the rules are different. Why would a person not consider that they would go for two there? Do you want your best player controlling it or would you prefer that you give the other team another shot with no guarantee of getting the ball back after a third possession? This has to be thought through. Maybe it was. I highly doubt that it was because nothing Kyle has said would make anyone think he went through this in his head either before or during the game. Kyle claims to be a big coach from your gut guy. Takes the analytics and then decides. He chose the analytics on this and he was wrong. The analytics dont take into account a rule change or the size of a particular moment. It just made zero sense to A) take the ball first and then B) hand it back with a FG lead knowing that Mahomes was on the other side waiting for his chance he was getting regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 26 minutes ago, clarkfn2284 said: I get it doesn't happen often. The odds of Mahomes scoring a TD in OT were decent enough to think about this. They had moved the ball consistently in the 2nd half, the defense was cooked at the end of regulation and overall the defense is the weakness of your team. We can look at TD%, but at some point you have to assess from what is seen on the field in that moment. In regards to the 2pt conversion, this isnt week 8. It's the Super Bowl and the rules are different. Why would a person not consider that they would go for two there? Do you want your best player controlling it or would you prefer that you give the other team another shot with no guarantee of getting the ball back after a third possession? This has to be thought through. Maybe it was. I highly doubt that it was because nothing Kyle has said would make anyone think he went through this in his head either before or during the game. Kyle claims to be a big coach from your gut guy. Takes the analytics and then decides. He chose the analytics on this and he was wrong. The analytics dont take into account a rule change or the size of a particular moment. It just made zero sense to A) take the ball first and then B) hand it back with a FG lead knowing that Mahomes was on the other side waiting for his chance he was getting regardless. Man, seems like you just really want to be upset about a preference, and that's fine, but I disagree. Seems to me he put thought into it, decided what was most important and that was that. He came to a different decision and there is no backing that it was the wrong decision except the result, and if you're "I'm just playing the results" guy, then I can't have a conversation with you. You take the ball and you get first crack at sudden death, or you kick it and you take the info. I prefer the info, others want the first crack at true sudden death. There's no empirical data which states one is right over the other currently. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, Forge said: Man, seems like you just really want to be upset about a preference, and that's fine, but I disagree. Seems to me he put thought into it, decided what was most important and that was that. He came to a different decision and there is no backing that it was the wrong decision except the result, and if you're "I'm just playing the results" guy, then I can't have a conversation with you. You take the ball and you get first crack at sudden death, or you kick it and you take the info. I prefer the info, others want the first crack at true sudden death. There's no empirical data which states one is right over the other currently. Also, like folks are weighing that decision very heavily in the loss. At that point in the game, the Chiefs we're moving the ball nearly at will and we were sputtering all half and were more banged up on both sides of the ball. No matter who got the ball first, we weren't doing so hot win likelihood wise. You'd definitely like the coach to make the decision to give the team the better chance, but for me the main culprits in the loss were terrible fumble and injury luck - there were 8 fumbles in the game of which the Chiefs recovered 7 - and our major injuries all led to the biggest negative plays for us. Mahomes went 9-9 targeting Burks just for starters. It's rough, and they capitalized on their fortune, but if you flipped that luck we might win by 20 or 30. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, JIllg said: Also, like folks are weighing that decision very heavily in the loss. At that point in the game, the Chiefs we're moving the ball nearly at will and we were sputtering all half and were more banged up on both sides of the ball. No matter who got the ball first, we weren't doing so hot win likelihood wise. You'd definitely like the coach to make the decision to give the team the better chance, but for me the main culprits in the loss were terrible fumble and injury luck - there were 8 fumbles in the game of which the Chiefs recovered 7 - and our major injuries all led to the biggest negative plays for us. Mahomes went 9-9 targeting Burks just for starters. It's rough, and they capitalized on their fortune, but if you flipped that luck we might win by 20 or 30. Here's the thing as well...If I remember right, under the modified rules previous, the team getting the fall first / third was 10-2 in overtime. 7 of those happened on the first possession. That means that the team getting the ball first / third was still 3-2 just completely removing those first scores. So the team getting the ball third still won 60% of the time (very limited sample, obviously) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/13/2024 at 5:53 PM, 757-NINER said: Lost some respect for BA today. I get your miserable & frustrated after a gut-wretching loss. But EVERYONE is miserable and frustrated! And none of them & their fam are running to social media to air out their grievances. It's just lame af and just not where your head should be right now. So if you only got 3 catches and we won, then what?? Would you still be upset? Idk...that just really irks me that at the time you're needed to be all about team the most is the time you want to go pointing fingers. He's a great talent but it ain't like his skill-set is irreplaceable. There's alot of other WRs that could do similar in this offense if given the opportunity. Be careful what you wish for... All I will say is as bad as any fan feels the players hurt 10x worse. Also y'all did this with Deebo over a yr ago. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757-NINER Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, sherm said: All I will say is as bad as any fan feels the players hurt 10x worse. Also y'all did this with Deebo over a yr ago. Meh, Deebo was a negotiation tactic that happened well into the off-season contract talks. And he never had his family on social media talking about we are packing our bags and heading to the Vegas the day after the season ended. Timing is everything. You just don't air out your coach/QB after one of the most devasting losses in team history imo. If he only caught 3 balls and we had won, then what? Would he still have an issue?? Just rubs me the wrong way is all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) Football gawds are harsh at times. This team can get back though. Hopefully Greenlaw has an excellent recovery. Also, no more acquiescencing to less than stellar practice facilities before the Super Bowl. Edited February 15 by TecmoSuperJoe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, 757-NINER said: Meh, Deebo was a negotiation tactic that happened well into the off-season contract talks. And he never had his family on social media talking about we are packing our bags and heading to the Vegas the day after the season ended. Timing is everything. You just don't air out your coach/QB after one of the most devasting losses in team history imo. If he only caught 3 balls and we had won, then what? Would he still have an issue?? Just rubs me the wrong way is all. Lol idk if you have family but you can't control family. Taking what a gf/family/friend says on their behalf never works. Idc what he said.. all players are emotional after the gm they make irrational statements. So are coaches... Kyle fired his DC who held Mahomes to 16 pts for 99.9% of the game. But his OC still has a job after scoring 19 pts lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnguy2015 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Going to give Shanahan and Purdy credit for two things late in the game: Shanahan for going for it on 4th and 3 in the red zone down 3. In previous years, Shanahan's almost certainly kicking it there. I myself thought he was going to take the points and honestly without the benefit of hindsight would have agreed, but he had enough trust in Purdy to get it done, and it paid off. If he had brought the FG unit onto the field instead we probably lose in regulation. Purdy, for stepping up after the 3 and outs to start the 3rd. After the muffed punt and MVS TD I was worried the dam was about to burst and we'd get shut out for the rest of the game while the Chiefs piled it on like in SB54. Instead Purdy responded with three straight scoring drives in the 4th/OT to put us ahead. Of course, we needed that 3rd down conversion to run out the clock and a TD on the OT drive(though if we kick the PAT and the Chiefs go for 2 that might not have mattered), but at least we went down swinging unlike the last time we made it with Jimmy G 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757-NINER Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 hours ago, sherm said: Lol idk if you have family but you can't control family. Taking what a gf/family/friend says on their behalf never works. Idc what he said.. all players are emotional after the gm they make irrational statements. So are coaches... Kyle fired his DC who held Mahomes to 16 pts for 99.9% of the game. But his OC still has a job after scoring 19 pts lol We all know Shanny is the OC and he ain't going to fire himself so not sure what the point is there. There was a big contingent of fans, including myself that were not that high on Wilks. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that he was let go. That wasn't some emotional decision. He just wasn't a fit for what Shanny wants from a schematic and tactical standpoint. He played ultra conservative on that last Chiefs drive in regulation that led to the game-tying FG. He made several questionable decisions throughout the game and overtime. Shanny's offense deserves criticism but so does Wilks not getting more out of a stacked front seven. Demeco would have killed to have Chase Young & Randy Gregory opposite Bosa, with Hargraves next to AA. Wilks just didn't do enough with the talent he was given imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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