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Random Thoughts - Offseason 2024


dll2000

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4 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

i'm more than happy to give him that contract

Yeah, exactly.  I though that was in the neighborhood of what Poles might look at offering him.  Maybe as he did with JJ he can put as much of it into years one and two as possible as incentive to take a bit less.  Another approach would be to use some hefty per game bonus money.

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11 hours ago, dll2000 said:

OL is low supply because DL talent is so much better.  Low supply = more money.  

Without a good OL and that is relative to your competition on DL it is very difficult to run an offense.  

A lot of that also has to do with single back schemes that dominate the league and teams not spending time working on run game and nuances of it.   Run game used to be much more of an art.  Only a few coaches in league really treat it that way anymore.  

I am all for having a great OL...I just don't think investing the $20 million it would probably take to keep Jenkins is a good investment when you consider Tunsil averages $25 million, Trent Williams & Andrew Thomas just over $23 million...give me that sort of contract at LT over a Dickerson averaging $21 million or Lindstrom or Hunt at around $20 million...

I think you need good solid play at guard...not game changers and hopefully Poles continues down the road of focusing on positional value.

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6 hours ago, soulman said:

Here's a piece on potential 2024 extensions for five players.  Jenkins is one of them.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2024/ ... on-brisker

2) Teven Jenkins; Project Contract: Three years, $48 million with $24 million fully guaranteed (Comp: Kevin Dotson)

This is what the author Aaron Lemming feels he might be offered.  APY of $16 mil with $24 mil/50% of contract value gtd.  To me that sounds about right.  If he can get a $20 mil APY offer somewhere Poles won't match it.

I'm not sure we get that sort of hometown discount when the likes of Robert Hunt got $20 million...I think when healthy Jenkins is better...and Hunt got $44 million in guarantees averaging $8.8 million guaranteed over the 5 years of that deal...that would easily be $9 million guaranteed per year...I would think more like 4 years $72 million with $37 million guaranteed...that is a lot for a guy who has never played more than 14 games in a season, is banged up a lot & this regime were clearly trying to move previously...I'm also not 100% sold they like his character...that's a lot to overcome IMO. 

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7 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

I'm not sure we get that sort of hometown discount when the likes of Robert Hunt got $20 million...I think when healthy Jenkins is better...and Hunt got $44 million in guarantees averaging $8.8 million guaranteed over the 5 years of that deal...that would easily be $9 million guaranteed per year...I would think more like 4 years $72 million with $37 million guaranteed...that is a lot for a guy who has never played more than 14 games in a season, is banged up a lot & this regime were clearly trying to move previously...I'm also not 100% sold they like his character...that's a lot to overcome IMO. 

I believe "hometown discounts" are a thing of the past.  If a player prefers to stay where he is then like JJ he may swayed by front loading the deal but if it's more about the total value of the deal most players will take the higher offer.  I really don't see Jenkins being any different.  To get the kind of deal Hunt got I would think Jenkins would need to play all 17 games and have an All Pro year and then some.

I don't believe he should be dinged for the games he misses as a rookie.  He was damaged goods when drafted and Pace knew it or at should've known it.  They pushed him to practice too soon and ended up losing him for most of the season.  He should've had the surgery immediately.  The past two years are a different story although it seems more like he's accident prone than poorly conditioned.

Fortunately he's been playing on his rookie contract so his absences have been less costly than they will be under a new deal.  He should probably acknowledge that his lack of availability is gonna cost him some money but will he?  Hunt isn't a very good comp since he's only missed 6 games in four years and even taking out his rookie year Jenkins has missed 9 in two seasons.  No one is gonna pay him Hunt money.

I think that a 3 year deal also gives him a shot at another big contract at age 29.  If push came to shove Poles might add some decent per game bonus money but I don't see him going much beyond what's been suggested here.  It's too risky.  Maybe the NFL should consider some kind of cap credit for players placed on IR so teams aren't so hamstrung by injuries to costly players.  That might reduce risk.

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1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

 

 

A healthy Connor Williams was at the top of my FA wish list, but at this point I think we’re gonna ride with Bates or Shelton outside of injury. I’m fine with that (both are better than both Whitehair and Patrick) and have made peace with us not adding a top of the league C this past offseason. If Bates is a late bloomer who rocks then that’s a huge feather in Poles’ cap and a big W for our future, but at least give me competent, starter quality play - it’s not a huge ask. 

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I don’t know what market is for Jenkins, but I know it would be cheaper now than if he ‘proves himself’.  That is my point.  And that I would like to keep him.

I heard a few Bears podcasters picking this same idea up this week.  

I really don’t like that NFL system has us rooting for guys to be signed as cheaply as possible.   

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14 hours ago, soulman said:

Poles got two OC for less than one Connor Williams will cost.

As long as it turns out to be a better value that whatever Williams' deal is, then I couldn't begin to complain. The pessimist in me says there is a good reason why the Bears are paying 3 Cs a total of like $6 mil while Williams will have more than that in base salary in his cheapest year for his next deal. 

Poles has seemed to understand priority #1 is supporting Williams though so I am trusting him to see something - especially in his considerable time scouting/reviewing tape - that shows Bates is a legit starter. I'd LOVE for him to be the offensive version of HIcks, a guy that came here cheap then got paid for being a mainstay on his line. 

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I don't care that this ends up working for some guys.  I love that our guy is starter from jump and gets all the main offseason reps.

Love after years of sitting, playing preseason and getting some regular season starts still started out slow.   And now you have to pay him mega dollars.

He might have reached this point years earlier on a cheap deal.

KC may have had another SB they play Mahomes earlier.

 

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2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I don't care that this ends up working for some guys.  I love that our guy is starter from jump and gets all the main offseason reps.

Love after years of sitting, playing preseason and getting some regular season starts still started out slow.   And now you have to pay him mega dollars.

He might have reached this point years earlier on a cheap deal.

KC may have had another SB they play Mahomes earlier.

 

I saw them talking about Marcus Mariota and Jayden Daniels splitting reps with the 1s, even though everyone knows JD is/will be the starter sooner rather than later.

makes me think about the time wasted in JF's first camp with him only rotating with the 3s then having to chemistry with anyone that actually made the team when he was inevitably thrown onto the field

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15 hours ago, dll2000 said:

We may have missed on Stroud, but this guy is just too little.  Glad we passed on him.  Thanks Carolina. 

 

I feel like he’s had a difficult time his entire life convincing people in public that he plays football. Like the randoms at a bar probably assume if he’s a football player at all, he must be a kicker. 

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So Hard Knocks revealed again the Bear were a little uncouth about their wanton desire for Odunze. They played it off before like they were ice cold in waiting for Odunze to fall to them, but they had several contingencies in place or merely attempted, including a recent reveal that the bears would’ve traded 1.9, a 3 and 4 to move up to 1.6 and a 5th if MHJ and Nabers were off the board by then. The Giants’ assumption was that it would be for Joe Alt and the Giants would take Odunze at 9, had no idea the bears were in love with Odunze (but neither did we). 

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