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2024 49ers offseason


49erurtaza

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27 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

I don't disagree.

My contention is that Juice the player leaving the offense as it is currently constructed would create more issues and lack of overall production than if BA left the offense.

People forget the offense was still relatively good when Jimmy was here, even though he pretty much ignored BA for long stretches and he relied heavily on Kittle & Deebo doing work in terms of targets. Jimmy just missed so many lay-ups that it seemed as if the pass game was lagging way behind.

It wasn't until Brock took the reigns that BA's full potential was unlocked.

So to your point, I believe you can replicate a BA's production w/o replicating him.

Especially now with Brock's emergence. 

Juice's role is more expansive so I do agree we could get several players to address his multitude of tasks, play to play. But that would also tend to make what we're trying to disguise or exploit easier to sniff out. Cohesiveness from play to play I don't think would look as seamless as it does at times with Juice in the fold.

If you look at as Juice is just a FB who catches passes, yes that position in and of itself seems rather expendable.

But to play the multitude of roles Juices commands in one series of plays alone its much more nuanced and not as readily quantified. Not mention his importance as a blocker in the run game in terms of timing, technique and intelligence. I think that may be where the disconnect in my argument stems from.

I don't think it's a apples vs. oranges comparisson when you consider the way Shanny constructs the offensive side of the ball. Just my take on it, anyway.

Now if Shanny were to revamp the offense because he now has a QB he can trust, then all bets are off. You could very well see where a player like Juice and what he provides is no longer of value. But we ain't there yet imo...

I appreciate the upside of having a guy who is as versatile as Juice.  I understand why they brought him back.  Compared to not juice, it's a clear upgrade.

That being said, I feel like Aiyuk is not just the team's best route runner, but the only wide receiver who is really good at it.  CMC is probably the team's second best route runner at the moment.  There are only about six or eight guys that can run routes like Aiyuk, they don't block like him, and they are very expensive.  I feel like Aiyuk would be the 5th most expensive to replace behind Warner, Williams,  Bosa, and Purdy.

The team is not as good or as multiple in the run game without Juice in the line-up, but replacing Aiyuk with any of the other comparable route runners would also have a downgrade in the run blocking at wide out.  The blocking assignments of the receiver are not as expansive or impactful as the wing/FB's role, but it still plays an important role. 

If/when the team does have to pivot, Aiyuk could play a key role in carryover to the new scheme and the new set of weapons.  At this point, the only three year plan I can see is two years and a cloud of dust. 

Edited by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420
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1 hour ago, 757-NINER said:

I don't disagree.

My contention is that Juice the player leaving the offense as it is currently constructed would create more issues and lack of overall production than if BA left the offense.

People forget the offense was still relatively good when Jimmy was here, even though he pretty much ignored BA for long stretches and he relied heavily on Kittle & Deebo doing work in terms of targets. Jimmy just missed so many lay-ups that it seemed as if the pass game was lagging way behind.

It wasn't until Brock took the reigns that BA's full potential was unlocked.

So to your point, I believe you can replicate a BA's production w/o replicating him.

Especially now with Brock's emergence. 

Juice's role is more expansive so I do agree we could get several players to address his multitude of tasks, play to play. But that would also tend to make what we're trying to disguise or exploit easier to sniff out. Cohesiveness from play to play I don't think would look as seamless as it does at times with Juice in the fold.

If you look at as Juice is just a FB who catches passes, yes that position in and of itself seems rather expendable.

But to play the multitude of roles Juices commands in one series of plays alone its much more nuanced and not as readily quantified. Not mention his importance as a blocker in the run game in terms of timing, technique and intelligence. I think that may be where the disconnect in my argument stems from.

I don't think it's a apples vs. oranges comparisson when you consider the way Shanny constructs the offensive side of the ball. Just my take on it, anyway.

Now if Shanny were to revamp the offense because he now has a QB he can trust, then all bets are off. You could very well see where a player like Juice and what he provides is no longer of value. But we ain't there yet imo...

He played less than 50% of the snaps this year and has played less than 50% in 4 of his 7 years here. Importantly, in each of the past two he has seen less than 50% snap share. In 3 of the last 4 years, he's caught less than 20 balls. 

I just don't know what the expected net gain is here over just a replacement level tight end or fullback. We've seen Shanny have massive success running 3 tight ends in Atlanta because he knows that kind of personnel works in his favor to create mismatches for the other skill position players. In his own words, its about making the defense think that a run could happen with a fullback on the field. It's about dictating the defensive personnel and keeping the range of plays open. It has less with Juice being some sort of special and more that he just loves what using the position does to a defense. 

And in truth, we have gotten pretty far away from the old Shanny offense. Solak wrote a whole thing on this year about how the Shanny offense wasn't the Shanny offense and they are getting away from Play action and settling into a more drop back game under center and shotgun. Purdy was 15th in playaction rate. 

 

 

EPA_per_dropback_on_non_play_action_dropbacks.png

 

Juice is lining up more at tight end than he ever has in his career. Nearly half his snaps come from somewhere other than out of the backfield. 
 

So we are talking about a guy who plays less than half the offensive snaps, touches the ball less than 30 times a year. Blocking? I mean, I Don't think he's been the blocker people think he has been for a bit. He doesn't pass block (less than 20 times last year). Run Blocking? I mean, an in line tight end you can motion into the backfield can do that. 

I just don't think the net gain is there at all. I mean, sure, I'd rather have Juice than not have Juice if I'm running a FB out there, but I don't think he's pivotal or anything. So much of what he brings is brought just because of the position he plays. I think the number of actual plays where he would make a difference over another player in that role over the course of a season is pretty limited. 

 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

I am okay with that

Yeah, I said this in the other thread but he's a mediocre receiver and moderately unreliable as a PR. 

He tried to be a hero in the SB and it cost us the game. 

I was going to be furious if he was re-signed. 

Also, while we are here, Spencer Burford needs to be cut. Too many mental mistakes. Enough is enough. 

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