DLL Chicago Bears Big Board 2024

[StLunatic88]

15 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

but 4 QBs are going before our pick whether or not one goes to MIN. Once they made the trade with HOU I think they pot committed themselves to making it happen.

He's another situation that I think too many people are just assuming will happen. Is it likely? Sure, but after everything settled, and the Diggs trade was completed, the Minnesota/Houston thing made a lot more sense than just assuming the Vikings are working on trading up for the 4th QB.

I believe it came out that the impetus for the trade was Houston going to Minnesota (and other teams) to get the right assets to get Diggs

 

[dll2000]

2 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

He's another situation that I think too many people are just assuming will happen. Is it likely? Sure, but after everything settled, and the Diggs trade was completed, the Minnesota/Houston thing made a lot more sense than just assuming the Vikings are working on trading up for the 4th QB.

I believe it came out that the impetus for the trade was Houston going to Minnesota (and other teams) to get the right assets to get Diggs

 

But we know MN is in QB market and it’s likely at least 2 other teams are as well aside from top 3 who probably drafting QB. 

It would be foolish for both AZ and LA to not take a big offer IMO.  

Bears are lock.  WA is lock.  

Even if NE surprises and trades out, I think another two teams are still coming up to make it 4 QBs in top 10. 

Giants could pull a Nagy/Pace as well and trade up for a QB while on hot seat.

[AZBearsFan]

14 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

But we know MN is in QB market and it’s likely at least 2 other teams are as well aside from top 3 who probably drafting QB. 

It would be foolish for both AZ and LA to not take a big offer IMO.  

Bears are lock.  WA is lock.  

Even if NE surprises and trades out, I think another two teams are still coming up to make it 4 QBs in top 10. 

Giants could pull a Nagy/Pace as well and trade up for a QB while on hot seat.

NE has the worst roster amongst the teams in QB range IMO, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. I think they have the worst roster in the league. They also have the benefit of a brand new regime top to bottom which gives them time to do a full rebuild the right way. They make the most sense to take a big trade down and stockpile draft capital to me - they aren’t a Maye or McCarthy away from being any good in 2024. Can NE get 11, 23, MIN’s 2025 1 and 2026 2? Does MIN like Maye or McCarthy that much?  

[StLunatic88]

25 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

It would be foolish for both AZ and LA to not take a big offer IMO.  

But we don’t know that type of offer is there. Again we are talking about the FOURTH quarterback prospect.

Would you guys be happy if we didn’t have #1, and it had been so bad with Fields this past year, if we were talking about trading a bunch to move up for JJ McCarthy?? I know I’d be irate

If the offer is just 11+23? Is that enough to miss out on MHJ? Maybe miss out on all three WRs? Risk that you aren’t able to trade back up? Or that you end up having to send 11+ 3 or 4 more picks to LAC to go back and get MHJ?

Again, this may all happen, but to pretend that it’s “just that simple” is not reality. Id imagine ARZ has gone down all these avenues already, and either have them all in place OR they have already decided that it’s too much of a headache and just stand pat and take possibly the best player in the Draft at #4

[dll2000]

9 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

NE has the worst roster amongst the teams in QB range IMO, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. I think they have the worst roster in the league. They also have the benefit of a brand new regime top to bottom which gives them time to do a full rebuild the right way. They make the most sense to take a big trade down and stockpile draft capital to me - they aren’t a Maye or McCarthy away from being any good in 2024. Can NE get 11, 23, MIN’s 2025 1 and 2026 2? Does MIN like Maye or McCarthy that much?  

If Fields played better it would be awesome to trade with a NE and get number one overall yet again.   You could keep getting extra high picks in draft in near perpetuity as long as you were happy with your QB.

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said:

But we don’t know that type of offer is there. Again we are talking about the FOURTH quarterback prospect.

Would you guys be happy if we didn’t have #1, and it had been so bad with Fields this past year, if we were talking about trading a bunch to move up for JJ McCarthy?? I know I’d be irate

If the offer is just 11+23? Is that enough to miss out on MHJ? Maybe miss out on all three WRs? Risk that you aren’t able to trade back up? Or that you end up having to send 11+ 3 or 4 more picks to LAC to go back and get MHJ?

Again, this may all happen, but to pretend that it’s “just that simple” is not reality. Id imagine ARZ has gone down all these avenues already, and either have them all in place OR they have already decided that it’s too much of a headache and just stand pat and take possibly the best player in the Draft at #4

I think someone in top 8 takes a deal.  It only takes one.

So many teams punted on QB last year or gave a vet one more year.  Created a lot of demand for this year. 

[StLunatic88]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think someone in top 8 takes a deal.  It only takes one.

So many teams punted on QB last year or gave a vet one more year.  Created a lot of demand for this year. 

Is it likely that the Top 4 QBs goin in the first 8 picks? Vegas says yes so I’ll agree on that. But the team that does trade out can significantly change who those other 4 picks are. 

And remember there are always swirling rumors on the run up to the draft every year, and most of the time they never come to fruition. 

I believe it was ‘22 that it was all the talk about tams wanting out of the Top 10 and multiple suitors jockeying for those picks, but on draft night it was nothing. First draft trade wasn’t till 11 I believe. While last year, no one had a clue what Arizona was going to pull off. Not even a whisper

[HuskieBear]

30 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Is it likely that the Top 4 QBs goin in the first 8 picks? Vegas says yes so I’ll agree on that. But the team that does trade out can significantly change who those other 4 picks are. 

And remember there are always swirling rumors on the run up to the draft every year, and most of the time they never come to fruition. 

I believe it was ‘22 that it was all the talk about tams wanting out of the Top 10 and multiple suitors jockeying for those picks, but on draft night it was nothing. First draft trade wasn’t till 11 I believe. While last year, no one had a clue what Arizona was going to pull off. Not even a whisper

that's always it. nobody knows anything that's going to happen. the only people that do are the team that's currently on the clock in that moment

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

While last year, no one had a clue what Arizona was going to pull off. Not even a whisper

NE trading down from 3 with MIN for 11, 23, a 2025 1 and maybe something else, then back up from 11 to 5 for significantly less (11, 34 and a later pick?) probably still lets them get a QB and also additional capital for their rebuild. If they like both Maye and McCarthy…? Rumor has been for months that LAC wants to move back. Would they consider this? You’d have to think some of these discussions have already happened. 

[AZBearsFan]

6 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

But we don’t know that type of offer is there. Again we are talking about the FOURTH quarterback prospect.

Would you guys be happy if we didn’t have #1, and it had been so bad with Fields this past year, if we were talking about trading a bunch to move up for JJ McCarthy?? I know I’d be irate

This is a great point. How many of the past 10-15 years would McCarthy (assuming he’s QB4) be the best QB available? The EJ Manuel draft for sure, and probably the Kenny Pickett draft too, but any others?  You sell the farm for the guy with absurd upside (not sure McCarthy has that) or for a clear cut QB1 (McCarthy definitely isn’t that), but anything else and there’s got to be at least some restraint IMO, especially with a guy who was never at any point asked to be nor needed to be the guy in college. McCarthy is a good prospect, but not a great one.

[soulman]

On 4/18/2024 at 7:05 AM, AZBearsFan said:

Odunze may still get to 9 anyway, but 4 QBs are going before our pick whether or not one goes to MIN. Once they made the trade with HOU I think they pot committed themselves to making it happen. I do expect that MIN will indeed move up, and I expect whoever their trade partner is to make them pay a huge premium to do it.

Initially my thought was that it would be best for us if MIN gets shut out from getting their QB. The more I think about it though, the more I think the best case scenario for us is MIN paying a ridiculous premium to move up for their guy, and then he’s a total miss. 

They're committed alright.  I'm just playing the odds here despite several more recent predictions calling for all of the WR to be gone by the 6th pick.  The odds favor Minny trading up to assure they get their QB and a WR falling to #9 as Tenn and Atl opt for an OT and a DE.

But we all know that every draft has at least on pick or one trade that defies the odds.  Should a WR not be there if I were Poles I'd be prepared to trade down.  What spot I can't say but if they want a DL Murphy may be a better choice then Verse.

[soulman]

On 4/18/2024 at 7:19 AM, dll2000 said:

They may pass on Odunze even if there.  

They may but I don't believe they'll take a pass on a guy at #9 will be the highest rated player still on the board.  I'm really not at all sure why so many consider WR a luxury pick.  It's 50/50 Keenan Allen is one and done and if the talk about the caliber of the 2025 DL class i true I would think that's where Poles would want to have enough draft capital to pursue a top DE or DT.  This year it's WR who are elite.

[dll2000]

9 hours ago, soulman said:

They may but I don't believe they'll take a pass on a guy at #9 will be the highest rated player still on the board.  I'm really not at all sure why so many consider WR a luxury pick.  It's 50/50 Keenan Allen is one and done and if the talk about the caliber of the 2025 DL class i true I would think that's where Poles would want to have enough draft capital to pursue a top DE or DT.  This year it's WR who are elite.

It’s a matter of depth.   WR is becoming one of deepest positions in college football.   As a result Supply and demand will start to make them less valuable soon.  

At same time an elite WR is a huge asset and WRs are getting paid highly for time being so there is great value in having good WRs on rookie contracts.  People are also still willing to trade good draft capital for good WRs at end of their contracts.   

I think because of supply this may change in near future, but it is not reality now.  

All that being said it is a tough call either way.  

If you think a WR is likely elite you take him.  If not you take a more rare position that is in shorter supply.  Like an edge or LT. 

[soulman]

5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

It’s a matter of depth.   WR is becoming one of deepest positions in college football.   As a result Supply and demand will start to make them less valuable soon.  

At same time an elite WR is a huge asset and WRs are getting paid highly for time being so there is great value in having good WRs on rookie contracts.  People are also still willing to trade good draft capital for good WRs at end of their contracts.   

I think because of supply this may change in near future, but it is not reality now.  

All that being said it is a tough call either way.  

If you think a WR is likely elite you take him.  If not you take a more rare position that is in shorter supply.  Like an edge or LT. 

This goes to my point that there are three WR in this draft who are seen as elite college players with the potential to be the same in the NFL.  While I'm well aware of the need for a DE and another DT none of the prospects in this draft appear to carry a label of being elite players/pass rushers.  They could turn out to be very good NFL players but is it wise to take a lesser player only for the position he plays?  Whether or not WR become less in demand in the future is academic right now.  It hasn't yet happened.  There seems to be just one DL who ranks a top ten pick and even that I believe is based mostly on upside.  And there's maybe two LT who rank top ten, maybe.

If Keenan Allen was 2-3 years younger and under contract for the next 3-4 years I might pass on the WR, trade down, and add more players who fall just below the blue chip status.  But that's not the reality here.  Allen could be gone as early as 2025 and will need to be replaced.  Odunze who seems most likely to still be available is similar in size and has played both in the slot and  at the X WR position in college so he's nearly a perfect fit as a replacement and has the advantage of being able to play with Allen and take tips from his before being expected to step in for him.  Some things just seem to fall into place perfectly and this draft has that for the Bears.

[dll2000]

I watched Murphy.  He is good.  But not top 10 good.  I would grade him as a 2nd rounder.   

He is scrappy.  But not dominant.  He reminds me a bit of Chris Zorich in college.   I think younger people don’t know Zorich was an all-American at ND and highly thought of.     But he was an undersized hustler.   A lot like Murphy.