AZ’s (probably) Final 2024 Mock

[SLCbear]

21 hours ago, G08 said:

Ah okay, that makes sense.

Yeah I'm torn with what to do if Odunze and Verse are sitting there at 9, but if 4 QBs, 2 WRs, 1 OT and 1 DL are gone I'd either take Verse or see if we can trade back with NO and take one of Verse/Latu

Odunze is the pick over Verse. WAYYYY more BOOM potential with significantly higher floor

 Will Rome make it to 9 ?

[SLCbear]

20 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

The way I look at it is this:

We NEED a starting edge rusher, and Verse is both a worthy top 10 pick IMO and a plug-and-play day 1 starter. I like Walker but he’s not a starting DE on a top defense running a 4-3. It’s by far our biggest need. We need upgrades and depth elsewhere, and at WR3 more than any other position (and there are a half dozen or more viable short term vet WR3 options still available in FA), but by and large we have our starters pretty much set.

We tend to look at the draft as a one year fix it, but reality is that GMs also factor in (and should factor in) player development from prior drafts when constructing a roster. We tend to look at Tyler Scott, for example, as a guy who didn’t live up to expectations last year that were probably too optimistic for him anyway, and that that’s just what he is now, but a GM probably looked at Scott’s prospects with the team through more of a multi-year lens since the day he was drafted. That’s not to say Poles is projecting him to be a fully capable or above average WR3 this year, but he’s expecting something from him, and that’ll factor into what we do at WR, as will the new offensive scheme (and that Scott’s skill set should fit far better with a QB who is adept at throwing crossers and RAC-based routes over the middle than the one who just left, and will benefit from almost exclusively single coverage with Allen and DJ getting primary attention). Conversely, we don’t have anyone at DE right now on whom we can put any kind of developmental projection. We have Sweat, an established Walker who’s ideally a depth guy, and a bunch of street FA types. 

Our biggest needs are C and 3t..

 Rome at 9 is not a mere 'WR3'. He is the future at a PREMIER position, a position that gets PAID, and we will have him on rookie scale for several years ! 

 Keenan is a bridge/CW-support that may or may not sign an extension here. He is 32 and will very VERY likely miss games. When Allen is out, who do we have after DJ ?? If Rome looks great year 1, then we are not under any real pressure to re-sign KA to some astronomical # that he thinks he is still worth... 

Rome helps Caleb now and is the future, along with DJ at premier positions.

I would take Rome, Bowers, JpJ, Latham, Olu or any of the top 5 OL, even Thomas and Murphy over Verse ...Verse may not even be picked until closer to 20...

 

[SLCbear]

5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I would take an elite WR over a good or decent edge.  A true elite WR is a huge force multiplier. 

So it comes down to how you good you think they are in my opinion.  

Odunze elite you take him.  Odunze real good and Verse just good.  You take Verse.  

yes. This

Rome >> Verse

Bowers >>> Verse

Thomas > Verse

Top 5 OL >> Verse

JPJ >>> Verse

Murphy > Verse

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I also think for this reason Braxton would fetch more in trade than many think. 

I heard many say a 5th.   I think he would go for a 3rd minimum and maybe a 2nd.   Or a 2025 2nd.   

Starting caliber LTs do not grow on trees.  We of all people should know this.  

Absolutely.  I think if the Bears really like an OT at 9, or they can't trade and don't like the DL and the WR are gone, having too many good tackles is not a problem I have ever seen the Bears have.  Great to have the depth, try Jones at guard, but the ideal out in that scenario is some contender needs a tackle near the trade deadline. I really think he'd fetch a 2, given the time on his contract and how rare even an average LT is.  Meanwhile if you can get better at an expensive position do it, especially when you probably won't be in the top ten next year. 

[soulman]

9 hours ago, G08 said:

I think Flus would rather have the 3T, but he also has been quite vocal that the biggest jump you see a rookie make is in year 2.

Gervon Dexter, to me, showed progression from week 1 to week 17. I would have to think you give him every single rep at 3T he can handle and if he doesn't show you enough after the 2024 season, then you think about bringing in competition or drafting another player high.

The impact Montez Sweat made should not be discounted, I think Jared Verse could be a damned good DE in this system for the next 5+ years (God-willing he stays healthy, of course).

 

Verse/Billings/Dexter/Sweat is pretty damned nasty if Dexter plays 25% better than last season. Swap out Billings with Pickens or Walker in passing downs.

I don't disagree that Verse could be a good RDE for the next 4-5 years but what then?  He'll be 28 years old in 5 years.  Do you offer him an extension or let him go in FA?  Players who do get extensions tend to be very good at their position.  Is he that guy or just a guy?  He and Turner are scored equally in the NFL post Combine Rankings yet Turner is almost always seen as the first one off the board and a top ten pick whereas Verse slides down a bit or even as far as the late teens.  Why?  I'd be curious to know that.

I'm not necessarily beating the drum for Murphy but in addition to RDE we also have a spot to fill at DT.  One thing that intrigues me about him is that he's not only a classic 3 tech gap shooter but also powerful enough to have been used to play NT as well.  Dexter seems to have a similar skills set.  That's an interesting pairing at DT with two guys who have that kind of versatility.  I think the biggest rap on Murphy is his size yet people said the same about Aaron Donald and Calijah Kancey who are both much lighter.

Interestingly enough Odunze and Verse carry the same NFL Post Combine Ranking.  If a choice is based solely on that it would seem to be an either or deal.  You couldn't lose no matter which one you drafted.  But FWIW Odunze never slips out of the top ten whereas Verse typically does and Turner does not either.  Is it simply his age pushing him down or his ceiling?  One other consideration to toss into the hopper here is Biggsy reported that Poles offered an extension to Allen already and he turned it down.  He wants to check out FA?

If there's truth behind the rumor then we would be replacing Allen as early as next year.  I can't find any reason why Allen would turn down an offer of an extension unless it was for far less than he believes he can get as a FA.  We know Poles won't overpay especially for a 33 year old player no matter how good he might be.  I find it doubtful Poles would offer a deal that averages more than Allen is getting now and more likely less or with bonus money tied to performance and games played.  He's gonna protect himself.

So that's one more consideration for what to do at #9 should one of the top three WR still be on the board.

[AZBearsFan]

6 hours ago, SLCbear said:

Our biggest needs are C and 3t..

 Rome at 9 is not a mere 'WR3'. He is the future at a PREMIER position, a position that gets PAID, and we will have him on rookie scale for several years ! 

 Keenan is a bridge/CW-support that may or may not sign an extension here. He is 32 and will very VERY likely miss games. When Allen is out, who do we have after DJ ?? If Rome looks great year 1, then we are not under any real pressure to re-sign KA to some astronomical # that he thinks he is still worth... 

Rome helps Caleb now and is the future, along with DJ at premier positions.

I would take Rome, Bowers, JpJ, Latham, Olu or any of the top 5 OL, even Thomas and Murphy over Verse ...Verse may not even be picked until closer to 20...

 

C and 3T are not bigger needs than DE. We signed the Rams’ starter at C from the past 2 years (who was solid there for them) and he’s probably backing up Ryan Bates. Neither is a star, but both should be competent or better. We have a 2nd round DT from last year’s draft at 3T who flashed every week in the 2nd half of last season, plus a developing 2nd year guy behind him (Pickens). At DE we have nothing. Demarcus Walker is just a guy who’s actually been more effective in his career rushing from the 3T position (further reducing the need for 3T), and behind him we have a bunch of guys most people never heard of before we signed them. This defense is a second upper echelon edge rusher away from being elite, but as presently constructed it’s also one Sweat injury away from being the sieve it was in the first half of 2023. Whether you like Verse or not (and it’s clear you aren’t high on him), the need is massive, and there are basically no viable options out there in FA at this point.

I agree Rome isn’t a typical WR3 (I love Rome for us) and he almost certainly won’t stay there, but for 2024 he will be our WR3. None of these picks is just about 2024 though. I’m really high on Verse. I think he’s gonna be a dude. Also, Verse also plays a position that gets the bag. Getting any premium position on a rookie deal for the next 5 years is a huge deal. Getting two of them this draft will be even bigger no matter what that second premier position is. 

58 minutes ago, soulman said:

I don't disagree that Verse could be a good RDE for the next 4-5 years but what then?  He'll be 28 years old in 5 years.  Do you offer him an extension or let him go in FA?

Him being 28 at the end of his rookie contract (assuming he gets that far before getting a new one) isn’t a big deal IMO. Most top pass rushers are highly effective into their early 30s. If we get 8 years of good or better play from any draft pick that’s a damn good pick IMO. 

[soulman]

32 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

C and 3T are not bigger needs than DE. We signed the Rams’ starter at C from the past 2 years (who was solid there for them) and he’s probably backing up Ryan Bates. Neither is a star, but both should be competent or better. We have a 2nd round DT from last year’s draft at 3T who flashed every week in the 2nd half of last season, plus a developing 2nd year guy behind him (Pickens). At DE we have nothing. Demarcus Walker is just a guy who’s actually been more effective in his career rushing from the 3T position (further reducing the need for 3T), and behind him we have a bunch of guys most people never heard of before we signed them. This defense is a second upper echelon edge rusher away from being elite, but as presently constructed it’s also one Sweat injury away from being the sieve it was in the first half of 2023. Whether you like Verse or not (and it’s clear you aren’t high on him), the need is massive, and there are basically no viable options out there in FA at this point.

I agree Rome isn’t a typical WR3 (I love Rome for us) and he almost certainly won’t stay there, but for 2024 he will be our WR3. None of these picks is just about 2024 though. I’m really high on Verse. I think he’s gonna be a dude. Also, Verse also plays a position that gets the bag. Getting any premium position on a rookie deal for the next 5 years is a huge deal. Getting two of them this draft will be even bigger no matter what that second premier position is. 

Him being 28 at the end of his rookie contract (assuming he gets that far before getting a new one) isn’t a big deal IMO. Most top pass rushers are highly effective into their early 30s. If we get 8 years of good or better play from any draft pick that’s a damn good pick IMO. 

But this is where we differ.  You see him as being a top pass rusher while I do not.  Let's say that if he ever makes All Pro I don't think it will be his pass rushing stats that do it for him.  Again, I think he'll be a good pro but not an elite pass rusher and that's the guy I'm looking for to play RDE.

Call it a hunch or whatever but I believe there are guys in this draft who will put up better numbers than Verse albeit they may end up as 3-4 OLB or blitzing WLB in a 4-3 more so than as DE for anything other than a pass rusher specialist role.  I dunno.  Maybe he turns into another Khalil Mack and proves me wrong and if so I'll be more than happy to eat crow.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

But this is where we differ.  You see him as being a top pass rusher while I do not.  Let's say that if he ever makes All Pro I don't think it will be his pass rushing stats that do it for him.  Again, I think he'll be a good pro but not an elite pass rusher and that's the guy I'm looking for to play RDE.

I don’t think Verse will be winning any sack titles but I think he’ll be perennially in that 8-10 sack range. That puts him in Rashan Gary type territory as a pass rusher with sack totals in the range of 20-30 in the league. That’s not Micah Parsons but that’s a guy who changes games. Brian Burns has 46 sacks in 5 seasons and has been in double digits in sacks just once (7.5/9/9/12.5/8), and just got 5/$141M with $87.5 in total guarantees. Would you take Gary or Burns as a pass rusher at 9? I sure would. 

[dll2000]

4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think Verse will be winning any sack titles but I think he’ll be perennially in that 8-10 sack range. That puts him in Rashan Gary type territory as a pass rusher with sack totals in the range of 20-30 in the league. That’s not Micah Parsons but that’s a guy who changes games. Brian Burns has 46 sacks in 5 seasons and has been in double digits in sacks just once (7.5/9/9/12.5/8), and just got 5/$141M with $87.5 in total guarantees. Would you take Gary or Burns as a pass rusher at 9? I sure would. 

Interesting comparison.   Gary was a high upside potential prospect with elite traits. 

However, Verse college tape is way better than Gary’s.  

Edited April 14 by dll2000
Typo

[dll2000]

Gary was number 1 high school recruit in the nation.  Verse had 14 tackles as a senior in high school. 
 

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/florida-state-de-jared-verse-takes-unheralded-path-to-top-tier-of-nfl-draft

[Madmike90]

59 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Gary was number 1 high school recruit in the nation.  Verse had 14 tackles as a senior in high school. 
 

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/florida-state-de-jared-verse-takes-unheralded-path-to-top-tier-of-nfl-draft

As much as I don't think their HS rankings are really relevant the one thing I think is between Verse and a guy like Gary is their age...Gary was what? 20/21 when he was drafted...Verse will be 23/24...might not seem like a huge difference but the development of a player especially a pass rusher over those few years can be massive...I like Verse...in this scheme he is my #1 edge in this class because I am not completely sold on Dallas Turner as an every down end with how we ask our DL to play...but I think the top 10 would be a bit of a reach...somewhere between 12-18 after getting some more picks I would be thrilled...

Still wouldn't pass up one of the three elite WRs if they are there at #9 mind you.

Edited April 14 by Madmike90

[dll2000]

2 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

As much as I don't think their HS rankings are really relevant the one thing I think is between Verse and a guy like Gary is their age...Gary was what? 20/21 when he was drafted...Verse will be 23/24...might not seem like a huge difference but the development of a player especially a pass rusher over those few years can be massive...I like Verse...in this scheme he is my #1 edge in this class because I am not completely sold on Dallas Turner as an every down end with how we ask our DL to play...but I think the top 10 would be a bit of a reach...somewhere between 12-18 after getting some more picks I would be thrilled...

Still wouldn't pass up one of the three elite WRs if they are there at #9 mind you.

I was illustrating their paths were very different.  Verse has been a late bloomer.  

Age is huge.  23 is way different than 20.   But that doesn’t mean people who are good at 20 will be good in NFL or people good at 23 won’t be good in NFL. 

It is a factor to consider amongst others.  

In fairness I think Verse could have came out last year and been fine.  

Gary was a huge underachiever in college IMO and to me had a good chance of busting.  I would never have taken him in first.   He has been good, but I still think he is a bit overrated.  There is no questioning his talent though.   

Verse on other hand is an overachiever. A go getter.  He doesn’t have Gary’s talent, but he is a dog in ways Gary will never be.

That being said, NFL typically prefers traits given a choice.   But it’s not like Verse doesn’t have traits.   If he was just a try hard I wouldn’t like him.  He is an NFL athlete. 

If I had to bet today I would day Verse career ends up better than Gary’s.  But I would never argue that Verse has a higher ceiling than Gary. 

 

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

If I had to bet today I would day Verse career ends up better than Gary’s.  But I would never argue that Verse has a higher ceiling than Gary. 

Me too - is that not worthy of a top 10 pick? Gary is a really good player who got top of market on a second deal extension. If we take Verse (or any other edge) at 9 and their career mirrors that of Gary, that’s fully worth the 9th pick in the draft IMO. Whether that’s 8 years or 11 matters not to me nor should it matter much to Poles, who will only be here a few more years at most anyway if Williams doesn’t hit. 

[dll2000]

28 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Me too - is that not worthy of a top 10 pick? Gary is a really good player who got top of market on a second deal extension. If we take Verse (or any other edge) at 9 and their career mirrors that of Gary, that’s fully worth the 9th pick in the draft IMO. Whether that’s 8 years or 11 matters not to me nor should it matter much to Poles, who will only be here a few more years at most anyway if Williams doesn’t hit. 

Gary plus his contract or Verse.  I don’t make the trade.  

Sweat > Gary. 

Packers D line > Bears though.  

[soulman]

11 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think Verse will be winning any sack titles but I think he’ll be perennially in that 8-10 sack range. That puts him in Rashan Gary type territory as a pass rusher with sack totals in the range of 20-30 in the league. That’s not Micah Parsons but that’s a guy who changes games. Brian Burns has 46 sacks in 5 seasons and has been in double digits in sacks just once (7.5/9/9/12.5/8), and just got 5/$141M with $87.5 in total guarantees. Would you take Gary or Burns as a pass rusher at 9? I sure would. 

But it's Turner whose compared to Brian Burns in the NFL Post Combine Rankings not Verse.  As far as I'm concerned Poles can draft whoever he likes in this draft.  There are probably a half dozen players who fit into slots from #9-#15 and there are others later in round one who are still good players.  They're gonna come away with someone who'll improve the team so I'll leave it to Poles and Co.