2024 Trojan's Mock Draft

[INbengalfan]

Fuaga makes it to 18?  Yes please

[indifference]

Would be a shock to have Latu fall to 26 but im game

[Karnage84]

On 4/14/2024 at 2:16 PM, Trojan said:

16. Detroit Lions (Seattle Seahawks): Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama ('24 29 + 61)

I have a hard time seeing the Lions trading up that far and giving up that much when you see the quality of players that would fit a need lower down (Verse, DeJean, Latu).

[Trojan]

7 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I have a hard time seeing the Lions trading up that far and giving up that much when you see the quality of players that would fit a need lower down (Verse, DeJean, Latu).

I think both Quinyon and Terrion are going to be top half players (like I have) and this is a scenario where it's just too perfect an opportunity, imo, to not mock the Lions moving up to 16 and landing a top corner. It wouldn't shock me if one if the real draft fails a bunch of mocks that, like mine, open 4 QBs 2+ WR and it's Terrion and Quinyon hopping in the mix. Cardinals, Chargers, and Giants all could target them imo, it's not what I'd do, but I wouldn't be surprised if one goes that direction. They are two super impressive guys (and the upsides of Wiggins is impressive too, just I have the other two as top 10 players, Wiggins 16-32 largely on size concerns he's thin and his arm length doesn't match his plus height). Having the Seahawks at 16 and imo looking to get a second more than hyper impressed with the BPA of their board in my scenario, and Arnold being a top 10 player at a position of need for the Lions the trade makes a lot of sense to me. Cooper Dejean is also very impressive, but being hurt during the process I think caps his draft upside and becomes more a value pick to a team like the Eagles. I could see Verse / Latu in my mock if they held off on the draft up until the falling EDGE run I have and then pull the trigger to jump into that (ie. a smaller trade up, maybe to Dallas). I think Terrion Arnold is very impressive though and I'm not mocking him past 16, and the fit makes a lot of sense to me both trade wise and team/BPA match up.

[Duff34man]

Vikings don't have a 2025 2nd. They traded it and this years 2nd for pick 23 this year with Hou. Like the trade up for Jayden though. We have a 3rd we could trade.

[vike daddy]

On 4/14/2024 at 11:27 AM, BigTimeRedskins said:

Wow, this is Chaotic for Washington, but I love it! In essence, the Commanders move from pick 2 (and 40) to 4 for 23 and Minnesota's 2nd rounder in 2025. Getting Maye plus a top pass rusher in Verse would be absolutely amazing.

we don't have a 2025 2nd rounder though, that's what we traded this year in a package to Houston to get the 2024 #23 pick.

[vike daddy]

On 4/14/2024 at 11:16 AM, Trojan said:

2. Minnesota Vikings (Washington Commanders): Jayden Daniels, QB LSU ('24 11+23, and '25 1st + 2nd)

i appreciate you having MINN go aggressive in this mock, but if we got to #2 i think we'd take Maye. not because he's my favorite and i hope they do, i just think he is their top target.

also, we don't have a 2025 2nd round pick, as we traded it this year to Houston.

[Trojan]

Just now, vike daddy said:

i appreciate you having MINN go aggressive in this mock, but if we got to #2 i think we'd take Maye. not because he's my favorite and i hope they do, i just think he is their top target.

also, we don't have a 2025 2nd round pick, as we traded it this year to Houston.

I think I knew that originally and had a 2026 1st and reduced it to a 2025 2nd before posting. Same idea though something worth roughly 2025 2nd, I just felt the 2026 1st was a touch too much imo. I still think if the Commanders have had an idea that QB QB QB QB is somewhat likely and would have had time to negotiate something with Cardinals if it's available so something where Minnesota goes all the way to 2, then Washington comes back up to 4 is a possibility. Like the potential has been telegraphed long enough and we haven't seen the teams behind Minnesota (Denver @12 and Vegas @13) move up so I think Minnesota has something thick in the works, and potentially the Commanders (or Patriots maybe) have a trade back-trade up sort of deal to the team with the most resources (Minnesota) in our MIN-DEN-LV range. That puts the Cardinals or Chargers in range for a top OL or Rome Odunze type prospects that surely are near the top of their boards.

For Vikings I think the preference is Jayden Daniels then second is Drake Maye, and I'm not convinced JJ McCarthy is a draw enough to gamble such a large compensation package. I think JJ could be it if they get pinched, but I would expect the Vikings to maintain pick 23. I also don't see a world where the Vikings move up and lose Justin Jefferson like a lot of publications seem to think. Like with a QB on a baby contract you pay Jefferson that's kinda the point to pair him with a talent QB and have money to keep him (and Darrisaw). I have Daniels first because I think he has rarer- athleticism, but I view him as less volatile of a prospect than Maye especially in a situation like Minnesota where he'd have two ultra-talented WRs and a elite bookend tackles and an offensive mind at HC/playcaller. I think Drake Maye has Herbert-ish upside but has a lot more work to put in to reach that and personally I don't get the gigantic knock on Howell for Mack Brown offense and going from a first to a day 3, but Maye "fell" from #2 to maybe #3 QB in a draft where they will go 4 in the top 5 or 6 picks (maybe 4 picks). I understand Maye over Howell, but Maye isn't a perfected prospect he just has tools and flashes of putting it together. I believe in the kid of Maye, but I also believed in Howell. The way Jayden put it all together in LSU I just believe at this point, and I think Jayden being clearly Antonio Pierce's guy also puts some level of pressure on the class that if your team wants him you know the Raiders are in on a competitive package for him. We just start with the lesser pick that you have to beat (a move to #2, instead of 4/5 is probably out of reach for Raiders which means you definitely are securing your guy, if the guy is Jayden).

[vike daddy]

4 minutes ago, Trojan said:

For Vikings I think the preference is Jayden Daniels then second is Drake Maye, and I'm not convinced JJ McCarthy is a draw enough to gamble such a large compensation package.

what i'm guessing (and that's all it is) is that the Vikings would trade up to 3 or 4 for Maye, and up to 5 for McCarthy.

[SteelKing728]

On 4/14/2024 at 2:27 PM, BigTimeRedskins said:

Wow, this is Chaotic for Washington, but I love it! In essence, the Commanders move from pick 2 (and 40) to 4 for 23 and Minnesota's 2nd rounder in 2025. Getting Maye plus a top pass rusher in Verse would be absolutely amazing.

The thing is though that you'll never trade back if you're targeting a QB.

If the Redskins want Maye at 4, they'll want him at 2.

[Trojan]

2 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

The thing is though that you'll never trade back if you're targeting a QB.

If the Redskins want Maye at 4, they'll want him at 2.

This scenario has the Commanders having something lined up with Arizona so they still get their guy. If Washington has something like that lined up, the thought is they also have inquired about #3 given they have #2 and end up with #4. So for Washington to do this they have months of conversation and know by the time deals are done the draft is #1 Caleb, #2 the team told them they are coming up for Jayden Daniels, #3 the Patriots have told them they want Daniels and then McCarthy, #4 they still get Maye and net a bit for the hassle. Like the concept is a long shot, but it is assuming it isn't a blind trade down for the Commanders.

[badgers0821]

32 minutes ago, Trojan said:

This scenario has the Commanders having something lined up with Arizona so they still get their guy. If Washington has something like that lined up, the thought is they also have inquired about #3 given they have #2 and end up with #4. So for Washington to do this they have months of conversation and know by the time deals are done the draft is #1 Caleb, #2 the team told them they are coming up for Jayden Daniels, #3 the Patriots have told them they want Daniels and then McCarthy, #4 they still get Maye and net a bit for the hassle. Like the concept is a long shot, but it is assuming it isn't a blind trade down for the Commanders.

This makes no sense. No team is going to give another team that much information, it kills all their leverage. No way Washington gets to trade down, pick up extra capital and is magically guaranteed from the other two teams that they won’t pick their guy…

[Trojan]

14 minutes ago, badgers0821 said:

This makes no sense. No team is going to give another team that much information, it kills all their leverage. No way Washington gets to trade down, pick up extra capital and is magically guaranteed from the other two teams that they won’t pick their guy…

Minnesota: We want to come up to #2.
Commanders: For who?
Minnesota: It's a secret.
Commanders select who they want at #2.

Minnesota: We want to come up to #2.
Commanders: For who?
Minnesota: ____ we like him more than the others
Commanders: We like him as well, but we're willing to get a brinks truck of compensation if you want him.

Minnesota agrees that means NE wants that guy too (because if Commanders are willing to accept something that means ___ isn't the one they want and MIN should shop to NE, if NE isn't agreeable they want the one MIN wants), because the Vikings are leaping NE. Then all you need is a read New England has McCarthy over Maye and that's kinda been what the media is saying.

IF Commanders value them 1. Maye 2/3. Daniels/McCarthy
IF NE value them 1. Daniels 2. McCarthy 3. Maye
IF Minnesota values Daniels > Maye

What leverage does Minnesota have? They need a QB. Teams picking early have all the leverage. Washington nets

I don't see how it's unrealistic. Especially if Commanders order is 1. Maye 2. McCarthy 3. Daniels and the gap between Maye and McCarthy is worth what they net in the trade down/trade up.

The one the Raiders want to move up for is Daniels. That means a team targeting Daniels is at least competing with Raiders for him. I think that implies to some level Daniels has a market to go higher if all other evaluations were similar.

McCarthy to Vikings logic seems like he's just the available one. Maye to Commanders is because that's what makes sense, and has since the staff was hired. There have been reports Patriots want Daniels or McCarthy, maybe they are wrong, but this could work if that report is correct.

Edited April 21 by Trojan

[badgers0821]

4 hours ago, Trojan said:

Minnesota: We want to come up to #2.
Commanders: For who?
Minnesota: It's a secret.
Commanders select who they want at #2.

Minnesota: We want to come up to #2.
Commanders: For who?
Minnesota: ____ we like him more than the others
Commanders: We like him as well, but we're willing to get a brinks truck of compensation if you want him.

Minnesota agrees that means NE wants that guy too (because if Commanders are willing to accept something that means ___ isn't the one they want and MIN should shop to NE, if NE isn't agreeable they want the one MIN wants), because the Vikings are leaping NE. Then all you need is a read New England has McCarthy over Maye and that's kinda been what the media is saying.

IF Commanders value them 1. Maye 2/3. Daniels/McCarthy
IF NE value them 1. Daniels 2. McCarthy 3. Maye
IF Minnesota values Daniels > Maye

What leverage does Minnesota have? They need a QB. Teams picking early have all the leverage. Washington nets

I don't see how it's unrealistic. Especially if Commanders order is 1. Maye 2. McCarthy 3. Daniels and the gap between Maye and McCarthy is worth what they net in the trade down/trade up.

The one the Raiders want to move up for is Daniels. That means a team targeting Daniels is at least competing with Raiders for him. I think that implies to some level Daniels has a market to go higher if all other evaluations were similar.

McCarthy to Vikings logic seems like he's just the available one. Maye to Commanders is because that's what makes sense, and has since the staff was hired. There have been reports Patriots want Daniels or McCarthy, maybe they are wrong, but this could work if that report is correct.

Your entire argument falls apart because you or the Vikings don’t know what the other teams order of importance is. Like I said, if those teams 2-4 gave up that information they would lose all their leverage.

[Trojan]

31 minutes ago, badgers0821 said:

Your entire argument falls apart because you or the Vikings don’t know what the other teams order of importance is. Like I said, if those teams 2-4 gave up that information they would lose all their leverage.

Im pretty sure teams have a fairly confident idea of what other teams around them are doing it's why every year teams get sniped.