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Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2024 (All Up)


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Just now, CWood21 said:

Honestly, 19th seems about right.  I kinda figured they were going to be a middle of the pack in terms of rankings.  I don't think Green Bay necessarily had the sexiest drafts, but they filled needs with good value pretty consistently.  Good work as always.

It's always an interesting question about how you grade drafts. Since things like "who got the best players?" or "who got the best value for their picks?" or "who got the best value overall?" or "who helped their team the most?" are metrics that will give you different answers.

Like Green Bay came in not needing (or wanting) any sort of transformative draft, since they were already in a pretty good spot.  But they did get good players that will upgrade the roster.  It's just weird to have a team have a huge number of picks, and all their obvious needs were at non-premium positions (it would be hard to find snaps for like a QB, Edge, CB, or WR they drafted.)

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4 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

People putting "CB" as one of the Packers needs were both misreading the room and also not listening to things Brian Gutekunst was freely telling the public.  Going into the draft they had 5 roster locks at CB and one at Safety (AJJ probably was, but they were clearly happier with what they got from Val/Ballentine last year).  After the draft we found out that Erik Stokes was full go, and they're paying Nixon like a starting nickel.

I'm pretty sure the Morgan over Barton decision was predicated basically on "if this guy has to play tackle, which one do we want playing tackle?"  There were rumblings that the organization wanted to move Tom to center next year so they weren't necessarily in the market for one.

But realistically going into the draft the most upgradable positions on the roster were safety, RB2, LB, and OL depth in some order; which is a weird set of needs since it's basically all nonpremiums.  Which basically explains the draft, since you could make a case that they drafted the best LB, best safety, and best RB in the draft.  Personally I would have it in the top half but there's not a lot of razzle dazzle there.

CB could easily be our #1 need by week 4. It's a gamble what we're going with. Not without upside, but it's definitely a gamble.

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5 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

CB could easily be our #1 need by week 4. It's a gamble what we're going with. Not without upside, but it's definitely a gamble.

I mean, sure.  Any team could get a bunch of injuries at any position, and that would become an issue for them.  It's just that you cannot predict that sort of thing, since "guys who were hurt previously"  aren't necessarily the guys who are going to get hurt in the future (injury-prone is descriptive, not predictive).

But it's pretty clear at least that the internally believe is that a lot of the pass defense problems last year are due to Barry being a bad match for the players on the back end, and they hired a new DC whose main thing is "coaching up DBs".  It's also likely that part of the reason that they traded Rasul last year was that they wanted to get more snaps for the young guys that they thought highly of.

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2 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, sure.  Any team could get a bunch of injuries at any position, and that would become an issue for them.  It's just that you cannot predict that sort of thing, since "guys who were hurt previously"  aren't necessarily the guys who are going to get hurt in the future (injury-prone is descriptive, not predictive).

But it's pretty clear at least that the internally believe is that a lot of the pass defense problems last year are due to Barry being a bad match for the players on the back end, and they hired a new DC whose main thing is "coaching up DBs".  It's also likely that part of the reason that they traded Rasul last year was that they wanted to get more snaps for the young guys that they thought highly of.

I'm not saying injuries. Valentine and Stokes may not be any good. They've played well and they've played poorly, neither has enough snaps logged to know what they are 

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Sure, but potential problems to pre-solve I think "what happens if the CBs, who we like and think can play well, do not do so" is behind "what if one of our top 5 offensive line guys is unavailable"  or " what happens if we want to play a 3rd LB" or "what happens if we want to play a 3rd safety" or "what if RB1 misses time?" since all of those things have already happened last year.

Like it's pretty clear the Packers understand that the game against the 49ers was lost last year when the offense stalled after both tackles left the game.

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2 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

It's always an interesting question about how you grade drafts. Since things like "who got the best players?" or "who got the best value for their picks?" or "who got the best value overall?" or "who helped their team the most?" are metrics that will give you different answers.

that one hits the sweet spot well.

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18. Denver Broncos

NFL: APR 25 2024 Draft

This Class In One Sentence:

A real rollercoaster, like the whole Sean Payton era – it’s just how it’s going to be

Pre-Draft Needs (According to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/team-needs-2024)

QB, EDGE, CB, TE, WR, DL, OT

Selections

12. Bo Nix | QB | Oregon

76. Jonah Ellis | EDGE | Utah

102. Troy Franklin | WR | Oregon

145. Kris Abrams-Draine | CB | Missouri

147. Audric Estime | RB | Notre Dame

235. Devaughn Vele | WR | Utah

256. Nick Gargiulo | OC | South Carolina

Best Pick

Kris Abrams-Draine – I liked the Franklin selection at 102, but I had a solid 2nd round grade on KAD. He’s a twitched-up, agile corner who plays a competitive brand of football. He can operate outside or in the slot, and transition with little waste. He also has plus ball skills. He does have thin frame and can get bounced around as a result. But this is nice value.

Worst Pick

Bo Nix – I mean, obviously it’s Nix, but I can’t be the only person wondering if this works out. Can I? He obviously had no business going 12th overall. He’s old as hell and his only college success arrived in a gimmicky scheme that can’t be replicated in the NFL. The post-pick PR was wild, and frankly unnecessary because the Falcons took ALL THAT HEAT away. Payton was dribbling about how he missed on Pat Mahomes because he didn't trade up and he hadn't actually traded up for Nix so the story made no sense. Man, never bring up Mahomes when talking about a draft prospect – don’t do that. Don't compare any guy to him. But especially don’t do it about Bo Nix. No purpose was served. 

But, also, Payton is one hell of a quarterback whisperer and man, Nix is a fighter. He’s also a good athlete, can offer something as a scrambler and runner. He has a snappy release, is excellent at quick read and throw. And Denver was pretty much his only fit, if he was going high. I don’t hate it, not at all – not with Payton’s track record with this exact skill-set. It can't work, can it? Man, I think it might...but it can't. Will it? I think it could, you know. No, there's no way. But, what if it does??

Overall

You know, there probably just isn’t another NFL head coach who is able to wield the power Payton does. Cutting Wilson with that contract would not have flown anywhere else. George Paton is in hell, man, I forgot he was there. He is Reek, he blew his shot and now just tiptoes about the place making coffee and offering unwanted fist bumps. And Payton drafts like a head coach, with no logical pattern or long-term thinking – it’s all now, now, now baby. And now he’s older, the spiky, petty aspects in his character are really coming to the fore. He can’t hide that stuff anymore. He’s a difficult person to root for. But also, I kind of like this class. I definitely don’t hate it. I should probably have it higher.

Look at those picks after Nix. Ellis I quite liked. He lacks length and can get enveloped by bigger dudes. But he’s twitched up and had that crazy combine workout. At worst, he’s got some DPR to him. I wasn't in love with Troy Franklin as a first round talent, but man this is some nice bargain buying. Certainly it feels like better value at 102 than Xavier Worthy was at 28. He’s fast as hell and was really productive at outside receiver where he feasted on quick slants and crossing routes at Oregon. He’s got excellent jumps in testing which show up on film, can high-point a football. Unfortunately, he wins mostly in the finesse game and that lack of physicality probably held him back from being a higher pick.

Elsewhere, Audric Estime ran far too slow, but he’s a mean runner and oddly has plenty of breakaway speed on film. Vele's a huge straight-line receiver who is about 50 years old. Nick Gargiulo was Rattler’s one good offensive lineman. He could start at a weak spot. 

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Posted (edited)

The Sean Payton Era just started Baby embrace it. This is the first one I can really see yourself questioning yourself on it haha love it. I hate Sean Paytons arrogance but love it at the same time. The league sucks at drafting qbs I'm glad we don't lol. You're right it does get hard to root for him lmao. As a fan I am higher on this class than you but I will also say it does feel like where taking two steps forward after going two steps back. You lose your qb eat a whole bunch of money and replace him with a high pick in the draft, and you get rid of finesse Jeudy for Finesse Franklin. Bo Nix is gonna work he's a Sean Payton archetype at qb. What really sold me on Nix is Philip Rivers loving him  we're due at qb and that guy used to tear us up .

Edited by thebestever6
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3 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

The Sean Payton Era just started Baby embrace it. This is the first one I can really see yourself questioning yourself on it haha love it. I hate Sean Paytons arrogance but love it at the same time. The league sucks at drafting qbs I'm glad we don't lol. You're right it does get hard to root for him lmao. As a fan I am higher on this class than you but I will also say it does feel like where taking two steps forward after going two steps back. You lose your qb eat a whole bunch of money and replace him with a high pick in the draft, and you get rid of finesse Jeudy for Finesse Franklin. Bo Nix is gonna work he's a Sean Payton archetype at qb. What really sold me on Nix is Philip Rivers loving him  we're due at qb and that guy used to tear us up .

Heavy contradictions in bold.

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35 minutes ago, Sad People said:

Say what?

When has Payton ever drafted and developed a successful NFL QB?

Or the Broncos recently. Nothing about that sentence can be defended. 

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