3 Round Mock Offseason - *Updated 12/23*

[Ghostnote]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Sam Darnold will be long gone by the time the Cardinals are picking at 12.  There are too many teams inside the top 10 that have a high probability of picking a QB.  Cleveland at 1 and New York at 2 both seem poised to take QBs.  In the odd chance the Browns don't go QB at 1, they're almost certainly taking one at 4.  San Francisco, Chicago, and Tampa Bay are very unlikely to take a QB that high.  It's unlikely, but Cincinnati could entertain the idea of taking a QB.  Denver at 9 and New York at 10 both would likely love the opportunity to take a QB as well.

That's four teams that I think would seriously consider taking a QB inside the top 10.  Cleveland, NY Giants, Denver, and NY Jets are all serious threats to take a QB.  Darnold won't last that long.

Cincinnati just signed Dalton to a 6 year 96M extension. They need offensive line more than a QB. Giants are bringing back Eli in 2018 and they do have Davis Webb that players are pushing for. Yes the Jets are a serious option. I get that. BUT, they also need OT's and they are limited in this draft class. If an OT is there like O'Niell, it is likely they take him over reaching for Darnold. The Jets could also settle in on Luke Falk or try to sign Kirk Cousins. Some fans have told me they have nearly 95M in cap space and can afford him. So. There are a lot of options, but it seems like you agree, that Darnold should not be the overall #1. 

The other scenario is that Cleveland takes Minkah, Barkley, or an OL first overall and then look for Rosen or Darnold at 5 overall. That is considering if the Giants dont take one of them and the Colts and Niners stay put. 

[Ghostnote]

14 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I don't believe the NFL shares your analysis on Darnold. From a November Daniel Jeremiah article:

I suspect their is a big divergence between the internet and the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks this year. I believe the NFL, on average, prefers Darnold to Rosen, likes Allen as a first rounder, and sincerely questions Jackson's viability to play quarterback in the NFL. I'm in the Darold camp myself, so it isn't tough for me to imagine him going first overall

November. A lot has happened between November and near the end of the year. Again, review current position orders. Rosen is higher than Darnold in just about all of them. 

And, I bet these same executives will tell you that Lamar Jackson should go first overall considering he can run and pass and fly and blah blah blah. He will bust. These executives are giving you a high level overview of a QB. They are not going into the details of what makes an NFL QB and which one of them actually fit the mold better. 

[Crickett]

1 hour ago, mike23md said:

I am inclined to believe that Sam Darnold is not the top rated QB let alone the top overall prospect in this draft class. To have him go first overall is bold but completely misguided. I can see th Cardinals moving on him at 12. Not #1 Overall. 

I am inclined to believe that Sam Darnold is not the top QB let alone the top overall prospect in this draft class.  Top rated QB?  Yeah, I can see that.  Darnold is massively overrated and as much as he probably shouldn't be, it's unlikely he's making it out of the top three.  He's everyone's latest USC golden boy to eventually become a draft bust to enter the NFL. 

[kingseanjohn]

4 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

FREE AGENCY	DRAFT
CUTS: Alex Smith RE-SIGN: N/A TRADE: N/A SIGN: N/A	2.57 - Duke Dawson, DB, Florida 3.89 - R.J. McIntosh, DL, Miami

Not bad. I really think the Chiefs will trade Smith rather than straight up cutting him.

I like both draft picks. Ideally we'd get an OLB next.

[Rich7sena]

13 minutes ago, mike23md said:

November. A lot has happened between November and near the end of the year. Again, review current position orders. Rosen is higher than Darnold in just about all of them. 

And, I bet these same executives will tell you that Lamar Jackson should go first overall considering he can run and pass and fly and blah blah blah. He will bust. These executives are giving you a high level overview of a QB. They are not going into the details of what makes an NFL QB and which one of them actually fit the mold better. 

Not enough has happened to change the consensus. In fact, I'd say both Rosen and Darold have appreciated over the past month. And again, websites typically aren't great predictors of what will happen on draft day -- especially this far out. CBS has Orlando Brown a their 4th overall player, Jackson as their 7th, and Mason Rudolph as their 13th. 

You may not take NFL executive's opinions seriously, but they're the ones ultimately making the decisions come draft day. 

[Ghostnote]

1 minute ago, Rich7sena said:

Not enough has happened to change the consensus. In fact, I'd say both Rosen and Darold have appreciated over the past month. And again, websites typically aren't great predictors of what will happen on draft day -- especially this far out. CBS has Orlando Brown a their 4th overall player, Jackson as their 7th, and Mason Rudolph as their 13th. 

You may not take NFL executive's opinions seriously, but they're the ones ultimately making the decisions come draft day. 

Um, you do notice that he didn't include the name of the executive. And that executive could be anyone. I am nearly 100% positive they are not the GM's of any team or have any type of personnel oversight. Executive is a stretched term to probably include anyone in the front office that may have a sniff of the pie to identify the flavor, but not close enough to have a slice and hand it out. 

He is the next USC Golden Boy that will fail in the NFL. Outside of Carson Palmer, there has been no successful QB from USC in the last 15 years. Sanchez, Barkley, Leinart, Kessler - not any good in the NFL. Palmer is even a stretch, but I can concede him. 

[Rich7sena]

26 minutes ago, Crickett said:

Does Cleveland really need that much help along their defensive line?  They just drafted Myles Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi and Caleb Brantley a year ago. 

It comes down to who's available later in the draft. From my perspective, Cleveland doesn't have an glaring needs so they can start addressing depth fairly considering how many picks they have.

I would be very surprised if the Giants let Eli Manning go when any veteran backup quarterback worth his salt is going to be just as expensive.  Also, it's my understanding that Brett Jones has been just as good at center for the Giants as Weston Richburg, meanwhile they have very little at.... anywhere else on their offensive line. 

According to my mock, they'll be taking Rosen who should be able to start right away. I haven't analyzed the Giants' offensive line, but it is my understanding that Richburg has been the team's best offensive lineman for the last few seasons. Brett Jones grades out at a 67.4 on PFF.

That's a lot of free agent activity for a team with the ninth most cap room.  Especially compared to teams with two literal times as much free agent money.

We've seen time and time again that the teams with the most cap room aren't necessarily the most active -- especially if the team isn't good (Cleveland) is in the state with a hefty state tax (Jets, 49ers) or has a frugal and measured GM (Colts). I believe Houston is a perfect storm for spending this offseason because the lack of state tax, ample cap room, and the excitement surrounding Deshaun Watson. I also anticipate the Buccaneers to make some splash signings this offseason.

 

2. The Jets don't need to re-sign Quincy Enunwa and sign Kyle Fuller.  A trio of Enunwa, Robbie Anderson and Jermaine Kearse is more than serviceable. 

Kyle Fuller is a corner.

So San Francisco is going to trade a second round pick for a 28 year old running back in a contract year so the Saints can draft his replacement with the selection?  How frequently do trades like that actually happen? And then they're going to address cornerback with Ross Cockrell? 

I believe Ingram is a good fit for what Shanahan wants in a running back. Ross Cockrell is pretty good. Not great, but pretty good.

Aqib Talib was just elected to the pro bowl.  They're just going to cut him? 

Kirk Cousins.

Do the Redskins need to sign Paul Richardson and draft a WR day two? 

There are no guarantees with Josh Docton's development. He may never be more than a jump ball maestro.

Generally speaking if the Packers draft a WR, they wait until the second round to do it. 

Until they don't. I'm not saying my mocks are gospel, but since I've been doing them I hear things like this and lo and behold, they do something "out of character". I believe pick trends are a combination of circumstance and philosophy. The Packers haven't been in this circumstance in a while.

They're going to sign Taylor Gabriel and then draft a deep threat in Deon Cain? 

The Cowboys need to get separation from their receiving corps. Although both Cain and Gabriel are deep threats, I believe Cain has the ability to become more.

Buffalo Bills - You have them trading a second round pick for McCarron and then drafting a quarterback in the first round.  They're not going to do both. 

We've seen teams double down on quarterback twice in as many years (Eagles, Bears). When a team has both two 1sts and two 2nds, trading picks gets easier.

New England Patriots - The Patriots are going to let Bennett walk after assuming his contract knowing he was hurt, and they're going to replace him with Jordan Reed so they can have the two most injury prone TE's on the same team? 

I believe the Patriots thought Bennett would be able to play down the stretch. The Patriots have assumed risk before and the reward would be a return to the Gronk/Hernandez era.

Philadelphia Eagles - They're five million over the cap, they have to cut someone.  Probably Vinny Curry. 

I'd be shocked if the Eagles cut a productive player. I imagine Torrey Smith or Nick Foles would be first on the chopping block. I only included notable cuts.

 

 

 

[Rich7sena]

22 minutes ago, mike23md said:

Um, you do notice that he didn't include the name of the executive. And that executive could be anyone. I am nearly 100% positive they are not the GM's of any team or have any type of personnel oversight. Executive is a stretched term to probably include anyone in the front office that may have a sniff of the pie to identify the flavor, but not close enough to have a slice and hand it out. 

He is the next USC Golden Boy that will fail in the NFL. Outside of Carson Palmer, there has been no successful QB from USC in the last 15 years. Sanchez, Barkley, Leinart, Kessler - not any good in the NFL. Palmer is even a stretch, but I can concede him. 

It's much more likely he excluded the names of the executives because they don't want to tip their hand to the rest of the league. Further, Daniel Jeremiah is a former scout who the Eagles kicked tires on for a role on their staff (might of even been GM, I forget). It's likely his sources are legitimate and I wouldn't doubt at least two of the comments were from front office heavy hitters. These operations aren't as tightly wound as you would think. When the Rams traded up to #1 to select a quarterback, journalists almost immediately reported the pick would be Goff.

Your USC comments are not legitimate analysis.

[Ghostnote]

1 minute ago, Rich7sena said:

It's likely he excluded the names of the executives because they don't want to tip their hand to the rest of the league. Further, Daniel Jeremiah is a former scout who the Eagles kicked tires on for a role on their staff (might of even been GM, I forget). It's likely his sources are legitimate and I wouldn't doubt at least two of the comments were from front office heavy hitters. These operations aren't as tightly wound as you would think. When the Rams traded up to #1 to select a quarterback, journalists almost immediately reported the pick would be Goff.

Your USC comments are not legitimate analysis.

And a lot of times, these "analysts" are grabbing anyone that will position with their view point so they can have a credible story. This is way too early anyway, so anything here is merely speculation. But I just dont see, from tape, Darnold being a #1 overall draft pick. Sorry. 

[Jason_Bengal_Fl]

1 hour ago, mike23md said:

Cincinnati just signed Dalton to a 6 year 96M extension. They need offensive line more than a QB. Giants are bringing back Eli in 2018 and they do have Davis Webb that players are pushing for. Yes the Jets are a serious option. I get that. BUT, they also need OT's and they are limited in this draft class. If an OT is there like O'Niell, it is likely they take him over reaching for Darnold. The Jets could also settle in on Luke Falk or try to sign Kirk Cousins. Some fans have told me they have nearly 95M in cap space and can afford him. So. There are a lot of options, but it seems like you agree, that Darnold should not be the overall #1. 

The other scenario is that Cleveland takes Minkah, Barkley, or an OL first overall and then look for Rosen or Darnold at 5 overall. That is considering if the Giants dont take one of them and the Colts and Niners stay put. 

I personally hope they take a left tackle.  But they could move on from Dalton without a big cap hit, and if they bring in a new head coach/coaching staff, and Darnold is there it wouldn't shock me if they took him. 

[zappa13004]

2 hours ago, mike23md said:

Rosen had the better game against USC.

Yes i watched this game and Rosen was good. I watched the TAM game too ! I like Rosen but i think Darnold has a higher ceiling. Thanks for your evaluation on him.

[JetsandI]

Quite a colorful mock.  I would be very very upset about trading up and getting Mayfield.  He is average in all physcial tools and Jets will have to burn a several premium picks for him?  That is a bad move.

 

Jets re-sigingin Morris Claiborne instead of signing Kyle Fuller would be better. 

[Crickett]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

It comes down to who's available later in the draft. From my perspective, Cleveland doesn't have an glaring needs so they can start addressing depth fairly considering how many picks they have.

They're 0-16 and don't have glaring needs?  They need three quarters of a secondary, arguably 4/5ths, at least one linebacker, at least one, possibly two offensive tackles, at least one running back, at least one possibly two wide receivers.  Josh Gordon is arguably their only NFL caliber WR while Corey Coleman is so frequently injured. 

 

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

Kyle Fuller is a corner.

I mixed him up with Will Fuller. 

 

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

I believe Ingram is a good fit for what Shanahan wants in a running back. Ross Cockrell is pretty good. Not great, but pretty good.

1. Doesn't mean they're going to give up a second round pick to trade for him given the circumstances.

2. Ross Cockrell is terrible.  I was shocked the Giants let go of Cody Sensabaugh in favor of him and then I saw Sensabaugh play for Pittsburgh. 

 

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

There are no guarantees with Josh Docton's development. He may never be more than a jump ball maestro.

While true, I don't think Washington would give up on him after what is essentially his rookie season. 

 

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

We've seen teams double down on quarterback twice in as many years (Eagles, Bears). When a team has both two 1sts and two 2nds, trading picks gets easier.

When have we ever seen a team trade a second round pick for a quarterback and then in the same offseason, draft another quarterback in the first round?  That has literally never happened.  Which makes sense, because no one would waste resources to sabotage themselves in such a way.  If you're going to give that kind of reasoning, you might as well have the Steelers resign Bell to a long term deal and then draft a running back in the first round.   Yeah it makes no sense and is not something that would ever happen, but we saw the Titans double down on running backs that one time. 

 

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

I believe the Patriots thought Bennett would be able to play down the stretch. The Patriots have assumed risk before and the reward would be a return to the Gronk/Hernandez era.

Jordan Reed hasn't played a 16 game since...... ever.  There's risk and then there's just being reckless, something the Patriots generally aren't. 

 

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

I'd be shocked if the Eagles cut a productive player. I imagine Torrey Smith or Nick Foles would be first on the chopping block. I only included notable cuts.

Ehhh, you're probably right about Smith.  Foles... eeeeehhh, I would say that depends on how far the Eagles go.  If they beat basically anyone of note in the playoffs (Vikings, Rams, Saints with Lattimore) with Foles under center, I'd be very surprised if they let him go.

[Rich7sena]

27 minutes ago, Crickett said:

They're 0-16 and don't have glaring needs?  They need three quarters of a secondary, arguably 4/5ths, at least one linebacker, at least one, possibly two offensive tackles, at least one running back, at least one possibly two wide receivers.  Josh Gordon is arguably their only NFL caliber WR while Corey Coleman is so frequently injured. 

They have a lot of good young players who are developing is what I meant. They won't all pan out, but they have a lot in the pipe right now.

1. Doesn't mean they're going to give up a second round pick to trade for him given the circumstances.

2. Ross Cockrell is terrible.  I was shocked the Giants let go of Cody Sensabaugh in favor of him and then I saw Sensabaugh play for Pittsburgh. 

None of this might happen -- it's all projection. They probably won't give up a 2nd round pick for Ingram but they could. The trade works for both teams. From what I've watched, Cockrell is a capable #2 corner. Per PFF, he's graded above a 70 over the past 3 seasons.

While true, I don't think Washington would give up on him after what is essentially his rookie season. 

I don't think adding receivers necessarily means they're giving up on Doctson. My projection isn't meant to suggest that. Jamison Crowder has also been a disappointment this season and Jordan Reed might be on his way out. The offense just needs weapons.

When have we ever seen a team trade a second round pick for a quarterback and then in the same offseason, draft another quarterback in the first round?  That has literally never happened.  Which makes sense, because no one would waste resources to sabotage themselves in such a way.  If you're going to give that kind of reasoning, you might as well have the Steelers resign Bell to a long term deal and then draft a running back in the first round.   Yeah it makes no sense and is not something that would ever happen, but we saw the Titans double down on running backs that one time. 

The bolded isn't a good analogy for a team doubling up on a quarterback. The Steelers already know what type of player Le'Veon Bell is. The Bears paid over $18 million for Mike Glennon this season and drafted a quarterback 2nd overall after trading up. To me, that's far closer to what the Bills do in my mock. Further, what NFL teams do isn't always logical, which is what I'm trying to project as well.

Jordan Reed hasn't played a 16 game since...... ever.  There's risk and then there's just being reckless, something the Patriots generally aren't. 

Unless he costs the Patriots a significant long term guaranteed deal (which he won't), the risk is absolutely worth it. This is a team that signed Chad Johnson and Tim Tebow.

 

[NVRamsFan]

Don't know much about the Edge rusher taken but those first two picks very well could be the positions taken. The cutting of Austin gives us a ton of cap space and those 3 free agent signings aren't going to take nearly all of it. Either we have a couple other signings including John Sullivan or a different vet Center and/or we're also extending Aaron Donald with that money. Love landing Jackson though that late in the 1st.