2018 draft talk

[DreamKid]

13 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Agreed. There’s just too much day 2 talent for us to not grab as many offensive playmakers as possible. Hopefully one of the top QB prospects slip to #16 because I think that’s where a worthwhile could present itself. That said if all the top QBs go in the top 15 picks, I like our chances with either Derwin James or Connor Williams falling. Both of whom are elite caliber prospects.

Here's a mock I did as part of a larger post I'm working on, I think it's super realistic and indicative of what could happen.

AP- Estimated Availability percentage  

1. Cle- QB Sam Darnold: AP: 0%, Cleveland is desperate for a franchise signal caller no way do they go in another direction.

2. NYG- QB Josh Rosen: AP: 0%, Rosen's personality is apparently off putting but he'll still be long gone. He fits in with a hungry NY media that will indulge him.

3. Trade- Den(f.Ind)- QB Baker Mayfield: AP: 5%, Baker's outgoing nature may raise some questions but his confidence and leadership causes this no brainer trade. Denver wants that rookie QB contract and to not pull funds away from their defense which still holds championship pieces and the other roster holes which are mounting. Baker is a good balance with his intensity to their other side of the ball. Indy knows Denver would only bump for a QB and they're guaranteed one of Chubb or Barkley.

4. Cle- HB Saquon Barkley: AP: 0%, A headache for us and hope for their franchise, adding two players to their backfield with tremendous upside.

5. Ind- DE Bradley Chubb: AP: 0%, Colts fans will have been hungry for the excitement of adding Barkley to the team but they get some picks and the consensus top DE player in the draft.

6. Trade- Wash(f.NYJ)- QB Josh Allen: AP: 30%, They're a weird franchise, led by weird people and have been through the mill. Mid round QB success in Cousins, Trade up for Griffin, but with all that in the past and them making the safe Allen pick last year, I think they make the risky Allen pick this year. Generational arm talent but too many inaccurate throws, is it fixable?, does it matter?. I think people go overboard into negative hyperbole when it comes to Allen because everyone loves a pile on, but the questions about his issues are fair. He still has franchise QB upside though and his floor isn't what people make it out to be. Someone will pull the trigger and I think the Redskins are a prime candidate. With Baker gone and that obvious pairing dashed, I think the Jets go with the picks over Allen.

7. TB- DE Marcus Davenport: AP: 0%, Pass rushers don't last, Davenport will be mocked to the Bucs from now to the draft because it just makes sense.

8. Chi- G Quenton Nelson: AP: 20%, Nelson is a monster but even a monster at guard has a chance at slipping I almost put his AP higher, as I can put together a couple very realistic boards where he just manages to slip but ultimately the Bears keep this blue chipper with his college OL coach who was just added to their staff and he forms a true tandem of bears with Kyle Long.

9. SF- LB Tremaine Edmunds: AP: 35%, Edmunds is a hot name lately and I'm hesitant to mock him this high but it does make since. Fans think they'll address CB(Ward) in FA, and I really wanted to send Minkah to them with Lynch steering the ship but they already have 3 capable safeties so it doesn't compute. Vea was also out there but it's a deep DT class and ultimately with Foster's fragility I accepted this commonly mocked pick for them. Edmunds over Smith because they need someone who can take on blocks more so than a Will. Edmunds could soar come the combine and this would be the end result, I wonder just how fast he'll run, but if it's sub 4.7 this selection seems likely.

10. OAK- DT Vita Vea: AP: 30%, I was torn between him and Smith for the spot as I can see Gruden wanting Smith to be his guy on defense for a decade but Vea effects too much of the game to be ignored for a team that needs help all over their D. He effects the run and pass, as well as keeps the LBs behind him clean, and will become the anchor for that line. With a 1st and 2nd invested into the Safety position they don't go Minkah.

11. Mia- OLB Roquan Smith: AP 20%, A great fit for Smith who steps in next to Mckmillon to form a young core for them. He'll be a good weapon to attack those pass catching backs of New England's multiple times a year and could also solve some of their TE coverage issues. I think the fall possibly brought on by his stature will be negated by his leadership abilities. With him Miami develops a bit of an identity with multiple active and fast players on their defense.

12. Cin- LT Connor Williams: AP ?50%, This tackle class is a mess rankings wise among experts and I don't feel comfortable gauging who the top guy will be, but it looks like it's likely Williams. The Bengals have backed themselves into a corner with their OL and can't go BPA. Minkah again is hanging out there but as has been pointed out by many Bengal fans, if they wanted a safety they would've pick Hooker last year. They feel comfortable at that position.

13. NYJ- QB Lamar Jackson: AP 50%, The Jets don't have a bunch of holes on their team and have the cap space to fill what ones they do. They have a tandem at S, acceptable corners, youth at LB and can resign Davis, they have depth at WR. They need a running back but it's a little high for one over Jackson, same goes for any edge or OL piece too. This is a league where you have to take shots at multiple QBs and they take one here. Jackson needs work but is a dynamic running presence that actually has a super high floor because of it, he'll have a spot in the league if he doesn't make it work at QB, but he has a strong arm and can make touch throws so he has a shot. I think it's a good environment for him and likely he'll get to sit behind a veteran. The FO of the Jets has really improved and has shown patience with QBs, they will sit him until he's ready but I  could see him getting a few trick packages here and there. In this scenario they nab a bunch of picks in a sturdy draft and land a potential QBOTF.

14. GB- S Minkah Fitzpatrick: AP 40%, The fall ends and in a great positions for him. He replaces Burnett who will walk in FA and tandems up with another Bama safety in HaHa. A great and safe first pick for a new GM, and the Packers add some winning pedigree to that defense. 

15. ARI- CB Denzel Ward: AP 40%, Arizona finally gets someone opposite Peterson. Ward is the consensus top CB from what I've seen and I'm sure throughout the process a couple of the underclassman corners will rise and teams will be anxious to replicate the success of teams who took corners in the 1st round last year. With Wilks as their new coach, I can see the defense being built up made a priority

_______________________________

In this very realistic scenario both Derwin James and Calvin Ridley fall. Unless the FO is completely blind, Derwin would be a monster Will for us and would solve essentially all of our coverage issues on defense along with his sick range and surprising ability to deal with blockers. That means two of our biggest needs ILB and WR would fall into our lap.

[DontTazeMeBro]

I think the actual draft is going to look a lot different than current projections. This QB class is awful and I wouldn’t be surprised if only one goes in the 1st. And I have no idea what they see in Quenton Nelson. The guy has no movement skills. He looks like he’s running in sand

[drd23]

1 hour ago, DontTazeMeBro said:

I think the actual draft is going to look a lot different than current projections. This QB class is awful and I wouldn’t be surprised if only one goes in the 1st.

That hasn't stopped NFL teams from overdrafting poor QBs before

[diamondbull424]

All I know is that more than any other player, I want the Ravens to come away from this draft with Michael Gallup.

My draft crushes:

Derwin James, Michael Gallup, Rashaad Penny, and Connor Williams.

My ideal scenario is we trade down to pick up an additional late 2nd for a QB needy team. With the late first we grab Williams who slips because of injury. And then we draft both Gallup and Penny in the second round. I’d be ecstatic.

[DreamKid]

A lot of the player grades are up on NFL's site, definitely some interesting evaluations.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-grade

[diamondbull424]

5 hours ago, DreamKid said:

A lot of the player grades are up on NFL's site, definitely some interesting evaluations.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-grade

They somehow as a staff forgot about one of the best backs in the nation? No Darrius Guice on there anywhere.

I guess I can’t fault him too much. This receiver class is pretty limp. And he does have Michael Gallup as the second best receiver, Pettis has the slightly higher grade but it looks like his return skills is why it’s a little higher. Agree with most of the WR evaluations.

Its weird he talks up Derwin James like he’s as good as I think he is, but yet has him below Minkah Fitzpatrick and other defensive backs.

And his ranking of Connor Williams, Tyrell Crosby, and Frank Ragnaw all below Mike McGlinchey should get him not simply a mandatory eye exam, but an eye exam where he’s simultaneously stoned by way of bouldarous size rocks because clearly he’s already been stoned by much smaller rocks that didn’t correct the issue.?

[DreamKid]

9 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

They somehow as a staff forgot about one of the best backs in the nation? No Darrius Guice on there anywhere.

I guess I can’t fault him too much. This receiver class is pretty limp. And he does have Michael Gallup as the second best receiver, Pettis has the slightly higher grade but it looks like his return skills is why it’s a little higher. Agree with most of the WR evaluations.

Its weird he talks up Derwin James like he’s as good as I think he is, but yet has him below Minkah Fitzpatrick and other defensive backs.

And his ranking of Connor Williams, Tyrell Crosby, and Frank Ragnaw all below Mike McGlinchey should get him not simply a mandatory eye exam, but an eye exam where he’s simultaneously stoned by way of bouldarous size rocks because clearly he’s already been stoned by much smaller rocks that didn’t correct the issue.?

Players are still being added, when I first looked at it they didn't have Derwin on there at all.

Mayock at the Senior Bowl said McGlinchey is a 1st round pick. Opinions are all over the place for this tackle class.

[Mancunian Raven]

On 30/01/2018 at 2:27 AM, DontTazeMeBro said:

I think the actual draft is going to look a lot different than current projections. This QB class is awful and I wouldn’t be surprised if only one goes in the 1st. And I have no idea what they see in Quenton Nelson. The guy has no movement skills. He looks like he’s running in sand

People say that every year, and every year QBs rush off the board. At least three will go in the first round, probably all before the Ravens pick. Whether they deserve to is immaterial, because teams know they can't succeed without franchise QBs. 

I can see what Eric DeCosta meant when he said the WR value is in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The only consensus 1st round WR is Ridley, and he might well be gone before the Ravens pick (although I don't think he'd be a good pick anyway). After that, there are a lot of guys with varying value, who might jump up into the 1st round after the Combine and pro days.

The arguable advantage for the Ravens is, they dont need to be too picky agout the WRs they target. Quick, precise route runner? We need one. Big, strong target? We need one. The only type of WR we don't need are deep threats that can't catch.

 

[diamondbull424]

16 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Players are still being added, when I first looked at it they didn't have Derwin on there at all.

Mayock at the Senior Bowl said McGlinchey is a 1st round pick. Opinions are all over the place for this tackle class.

I think McGlinchey is considered a 1st rounder because of school pedigree and because of his measurables. Based on those functions it makes sense.

I suppose it could also make sense why Conner Williams might be lowered due to his medical history. Consider that and you have to drop him if you don’t think he’ll be durable moving forward. But I think they’re all overthinking it. Remove pedigree and durability concerns and consider only the on the field talent between those guys and it’s not close.

I’d rather bank on an NFL conditioning program fixing my OTs durability concerns than to bank on my NFL teaching to improve a player who plays without consistent leverage from play to play, who went to a school with NFL caliber Oline coaches. The plays that he doesn’t play with leverage and/or whiffs could get the QB killed, especially because he can’t anticipate when it will be. Whereas with Williams durability, he goes out and you tell the QB he has 3 seconds to get the ball out and you provide the OT with TE assistance and keep it moving.

Its like whether you’d rather have Michael Oher or Jason Peters. Peters consistently seems to have big injuries but is consistently great when playing. Michael Oher sometimes could look probowl level but then on others plays he looked like he was trying to get Flacco killed because he would lunge and whiff on blocks a few times almost every game. You just didn’t know when it would be. Out of these two I would easily take Peters.

[diamondbull424]

4 hours ago, Mancunian Raven said:

People say that every year, and every year QBs rush off the board. At least three will go in the first round, probably all before the Ravens pick. Whether they deserve to is immaterial, because teams know they can't succeed without franchise QBs. 

I can see what Eric DeCosta meant when he said the WR value is in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The only consensus 1st round WR is Ridley, and he might well be gone before the Ravens pick (although I don't think he'd be a good pick anyway). After that, there are a lot of guys with varying value, who might jump up into the 1st round after the Combine and pro days.

The arguable advantage for the Ravens is, they dont need to be too picky agout the WRs they target. Quick, precise route runner? We need one. Big, strong target? We need one. The only type of WR we don't need are deep threats that can't catch.

 

This is a great point. We don’t have to be picky with our receiver we bring in. Any weapon is a great weapon. We don’t even have Mike Wallace under contract and may not bring him back, so James Washington as JUST a deep threat would be better than what we have as he develops into more. Michael Gallup would be great on those bubble screens we like to run. Calvin Ridley would be great at creating space to give Flacco easy windows to fit the ball into.

[diamondbull424]

One position that I feel like we don’t hear enough about with the Baltimore media and even on here is the Tight end position. We’re lacking a playmaker I know who my top options are, what about you guys. Who do you think are the best options at the next level and why?

[DontTazeMeBro]

I like Jaylen Samuels. Can play TE, WR, RB, H-Back. That gives you the ability to use almost every formation in the playbook from one personnel group. All kinds of mismatches you can create with that 

[Danand]

I just want to get a sure handed tight end who knows how to get open. That seems to be the targets that Flacco uses the best - not the superior athletes.

[DreamKid]

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

One position that I feel like we don’t hear enough about with the Baltimore media and even on here is the Tight end position. We’re lacking a playmaker I know who my top options are, what about you guys. Who do you think are the best options at the next level and why?

There are the obvious guys like Goedert and Hurst who are immediate impact players. Gesicki grew on me during SB week. I'm still trying to figure out Mark Andrews. I've grown on Ian Thomas lately, he's less hyped but is a great player who performed well during Senior Bowl week. Good movement, hands, farther along as a blocker than the other top TEs, just an all around guy. 

From his bio on Hoosiers website-

Prep/Personal: Tight end for head coach William Brandon at Digital Harbor High School in Baltimore ... team most valuable player ... named Digital Harbor’s most improved player ... three-year football letterwinner ... also lettered in basketball and track and field ... parents are deceased ... lived with his eight siblings and raised by his older siblings since he was nine years old ... born on June 6, 1996, Ian Thomas is a criminal justice major.

He's a Baltimore kid and I think a likely pick for us. I'd like to pull him down in the 3rd if possible.

Round 1. ILB/S Derwin James

Round 2.  WR Washington/Gallup/Miller

Round 3. OT Brandon Parker

Round 3. TE Ian Thomas

I think that's a rock solid Day 1 and 2 for us.

[Danand]

23 hours ago, DreamKid said:

There are the obvious guys like Goedert and Hurst who are immediate impact players. Gesicki grew on me during SB week. I'm still trying to figure out Mark Andrews. I've grown on Ian Thomas lately, he's less hyped but is a great player who performed well during Senior Bowl week. Good movement, hands, farther along as a blocker than the other top TEs, just an all around guy. 

From his bio on Hoosiers website-

Prep/Personal: Tight end for head coach William Brandon at Digital Harbor High School in Baltimore ... team most valuable player ... named Digital Harbor’s most improved player ... three-year football letterwinner ... also lettered in basketball and track and field ... parents are deceased ... lived with his eight siblings and raised by his older siblings since he was nine years old ... born on June 6, 1996, Ian Thomas is a criminal justice major.

He's a Baltimore kid and I think a likely pick for us. I'd like to pull him down in the 3rd if possible.

Round 1. ILB/S Derwin James

Round 2.  WR Washington/Gallup/Miller

Round 3. OT Brandon Parker

Round 3. TE Ian Thomas

I think that's a rock solid Day 1 and 2 for us.

Damn, instantly liked what I've seen from Ian Thomas. Big, natural hands, got a little bit of athleticism to set up defenders on routes and then break away from them.

A little too much of a one speed guy, but if he is durable, I see him as a 3. round pick for us depending on how the board falls.

Have to see more from him also, but certainly a promising player.