Random Packer News & Notes

[skibrett15]

6 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Why is there a good chance our 13 picks will be worse than the other draft classes? What is a "good" chance? 

This reads far more pessimistic than realistic.

the fact we have more draft capital (3rd) means the team has an edge over your average team, but I'd say still a 35-40% chance this draft is below the average curve which would mean they got worse relative to the rest of the league.  Even if you think Gute is an edge in that dept (personally I do) it's still an extremely high variance process so 30-40% is reasonably good chance to me.

Then look at the rest of the offseason - team lost high snap players at many positions - S, K, QB, WR, TE and replaced them with existing players or draft picks.

Team made no substantial free agent signing -- they couldn't, but they also... didn't.

 

On paper unless this team has an incredible leap from several existing players I can't see how it will be a better team.  The best case for it is basically addition by subtraction

[Old Guy]

3 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Come on.

We have no idea about QB, S, DL, WR or TE. We lost every vet we had there and are depending on unproven players.

OL is clearly better as we have health there. RB is a push. CB I'll even give you a push even though 2022 had a healthy Stokes. ILB I'll give you as Quay is in year 2, but Campbell is deteriorating. EDGE is clearly worse without our best EDGE.

If you think people inside the walls of 1265 are this confident, that's what's funny. I hope by the end of 2023 we can confidently say we're way better than the end of 2022, but this right here is just Kool aid sippin'.

 

 

Kenny Clark? TJ Slaton? I'll take year 2 Wyatt over anybody we lost from last year. Overall, thin from a depth perspective, but better talent on the D-line. 

We lost Stokes and Gary in the middle of the year last year. They were Injured week 9 in the first half of the game, so exactly the 1/2 point of the season. They will both be back this year prior to week 9 in all likelihood. They will play as much football this year as last year.

We also found Nixon so the CB room is better than last year. Because Nixon can play slot and Stokes, Jaire and Douglass are all better on the boundary. 

Amos was a shadow of his former self last year. Savage and Ford are a push plus we don't know what we have in Tavarius Moore, but he's better than what he had last year so safety is a push. 

WR we are much better this year than last. Watson is clearly better than anybody we had last year by a mile. Doubs is also better than anybody we had last year. We added a 3rd WR which was Cobb. 

TE - not hard to imagine we are going to get more production out of that spot because Rodgers wouldn't throw over the middle where most TE's do their work. 

LB - a 'deteriorating' Campbell and an ascending Quay. It's a push worst case scenario, probably a net gain because Campbell is a smart player and will make up for any slight loss athletically. 

EDGE - Gary missed 1/2 of the season and will be back for at least 1/2 of this season, but in your opinion, we are going to be worse and we didn't lose anybody. We also added Van Ness in round 1. Enagbare also got some valuable experience and proved he belonged. We also found Hollins along the way. Both of those guys should be better this year. I have no idea how you view EDGE as a minus compared to last year. 

QB - we don't know what we don't know but Rodgers was pretty average last year, and this offense is going to be more efficient because we are going to actually run MFL's offense and not Rodgers. 

You are talking about us drinking Kool-Aid, but please put down that cyanide. It's only football and it's going to be OK. The Packers are headed in the right direction for the first time in a long time. Time to be optimistic. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Old Guy

[incognito_man]

8 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

the fact we have more draft capital (3rd) means the team has an edge over your average team, but I'd say still a 35-40% chance this draft is below the average curve which would mean they got worse relative to the rest of the league.  Even if you think Gute is an edge in that dept (personally I do) it's still an extremely high variance process so 30-40% is reasonably good chance to me.

Then look at the rest of the offseason - team lost high snap players at many positions - S, K, QB, WR, TE and replaced them with existing players or draft picks.

Team made no substantial free agent signing -- they couldn't, but they also... didn't.

 

On paper unless this team has an incredible leap from several existing players I can't see how it will be a better team.  The best case for it is basically addition by subtraction

Explain how a 35-40% chance of having a worse than average draft class isn't wildly pessimistic considering in the same sentence you said we're in the top 10% of draft capital.

 Do you think our talent evaluators are 3.5-4x worse than their average peer? 

[Eternal]

Edited May 8, 2023 by Eternal

[Green19]

4 minutes ago, Eternal said:

[Old Guy]

24 minutes ago, Eternal said:

Yep! Pretty much sums it up and that is if the Jets stay healthy. Now, throw in the troubles the Jets have on the offensive line. One caveat, Rodgers did play with a broken thumb for a stretch so he should be better. He's a year older to so no guarantee on that. 

[Eternal]

3 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Yep! Pretty much sums it up and that is if the Jets stay healthy. Now, throw in the troubles the Jets have on the offensive line. One caveat, Rodgers did play with a broken thumb for a stretch so he should be better. He's a year older to so no guarantee on that. 

I think it'll mainly come down to the defense. I trust whatever Jets have over Joe Barry. If we had a better d coordinator over what we have in Barry, Packers I think would be much improved.

[Green19]

5 minutes ago, Eternal said:

I think it'll mainly come down to the defense. I trust whatever Jets have over Joe Barry. If we had a better d coordinator over what we have in Barry, Packers I think would be much improved.

Let’s not forget Hall is coming off an ACL too. So their run game is likely no were near to GBs until proven otherwise. They did draft the kid out of pitt that I know many liked.

Ultimately I don’t think the defense matters honestly. GB has had moments in the post season where the defense did its job… or was down right dominant (49ers lost at lambeau, turning the ball over 3 times in a row against Brady).

I think Rodgers needs to not get so tight in the postseason and stop playing “not to lose” and play “to win” more if the Jets have any hope to be more than just a one and done. Unless if you are think the jets defense will score 14 pts of their own….

[Sandy]

One way to look at it - did we rebuild in the offseason? Hell yeah.

By the end of last season, our Edge, WR, TE, S, and DL rooms needed either talent, depth, or both. Because we were an average team last year.

Now we've rebuilt most of those rooms. 

Rebuild is over.

Now we just keep building.

And we can abso-****in-lootley win the goddamn Super Bowl this year.

 

Edit: forgot my final point that ties it all together.  The answer is no, we are not having a rebuilding season.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Sandy

[Eternal]

16 minutes ago, Green19 said:

Let’s not forget Hall is coming off an ACL too. So their run game is likely no were near to GBs until proven otherwise. They did draft the kid out of pitt that I know many liked.

Ultimately I don’t think the defense matters honestly. GB has had moments in the post season where the defense did its job… or was down right dominant (49ers lost at lambeau, turning the ball over 3 times in a row against Brady).

I think Rodgers needs to not get so tight in the postseason and stop playing “not to lose” and play “to win” more if the Jets have any hope to be more than just a one and done. Unless if you are think the jets defense will score 14 pts of their own….

I definitely couldn't agree more.

The game vs the 49ers proved more then ever Rodgers was playing not to lose. Obviously play calling from coaches affected how the game went as well. It felt Rodgers was playing scared though after the opening drive.

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, Old Guy said:

Kenny Clark? TJ Slaton? I'll take year 2 Wyatt over anybody we lost from last year. Overall, thin from a depth perspective, but better talent on the D-line. 

We lost Stokes and Gary in the middle of the year last year. They were Injured week 9 in the first half of the game, so exactly the 1/2 point of the season. They will both be back this year prior to week 9 in all likelihood. They will play as much football this year as last year.

We also found Nixon so the CB room is better than last year. Because Nixon can play slot and Stokes, Jaire and Douglass are all better on the boundary. 

Amos was a shadow of his former self last year. Savage and Ford are a push plus we don't know what we have in Tavarius Moore, but he's better than what he had last year so safety is a push. 

WR we are much better this year than last. Watson is clearly better than anybody we had last year by a mile. Doubs is also better than anybody we had last year. We added a 3rd WR which was Cobb. 

TE - not hard to imagine we are going to get more production out of that spot because Rodgers wouldn't throw over the middle where most TE's do their work. 

LB - a 'deteriorating' Campbell and an ascending Quay. It's a push worst case scenario, probably a net gain because Campbell is a smart player and will make up for any slight loss athletically. 

EDGE - Gary missed 1/2 of the season and will be back for at least 1/2 of this season, but in your opinion, we are going to be worse and we didn't lose anybody. We also added Van Ness in round 1. Enagbare also got some valuable experience and proved he belonged. We also found Hollins along the way. Both of those guys should be better this year. I have no idea how you view EDGE as a minus compared to last year. 

QB - we don't know what we don't know but Rodgers was pretty average last year, and this offense is going to be more efficient because we are going to actually run MFL's offense and not Rodgers. 

You are talking about us drinking Kool-Aid, but please put down that cyanide. It's only football and it's going to be OK. The Packers are headed in the right direction for the first time in a long time. Time to be optimistic. 

He said "entering 2022" not ending it. Gary and Stokes were healthy. Amos was still seen as a premier safety. Lowry was coming off his best year and we brought in Reed. We were claiming we had a better team at this point last year than the 3 teams that convectively went 13-3.

You're drinking Kool Aid of the green and gold variety if you think the roster on May 8 2023 is better than May 8 2022.

 

[Packerraymond]

2 minutes ago, Sandy said:

One way to look at it - did we rebuild in the offseason? Hell yeah.

By the end of last season, our Edge, WR, TE, S, and DL rooms needed either talent, depth, or both. Because we were an average team last year.

Now we've rebuilt most of those rooms. 

Rebuild is over.

Now we just keep building.

And we can abso-****in-lootley win the goddamn Super Bowl this year.

 

Edit: forgot my final point that ties it all together.  The answer is no, we are not having a rebuilding season.

We have 11 draft picks and actual cap space next year, the roster is going to turnover again in 2024. Then the rebuild is over.

[Leader]

Interesting comments....

 

[R T]

10 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

We have 11 draft picks and actual cap space next year, the roster is going to turnover again in 2024. Then the rebuild is over.

Every year has 15-20 new faces on the 53. Last year's roster had 18 new players in a 'all in', 'run it back' season. The 2024 turnover will be no different than the turnover in any other year. 

[Green19]

58 minutes ago, Eternal said:

I definitely couldn't agree more.

The game vs the 49ers proved more then ever Rodgers was playing not to lose. Obviously play calling from coaches affected how the game went as well. It felt Rodgers was playing scared though after the opening drive.

Plus… they have to likely keep some combination of Mahomes, burrow, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, Lawrence, and Miami’s offense quiet in back to back games at best….but more likely back to back to back games.

I just think it’s a tall task for any defense. So Rodgers needs to show up and show out. And given recent sampling… Rodgers hasn’t done this. So I think jets season will play out a lot like the recent packers seasons. 

edit: I would also be scared of the Hackett relationship if I was an informed jets fan. I don’t think he will push back on Rodgers at all. This will be a Rodgers is the QB, OC and play caller type deal.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Green19