Random Packer News & Notes

[Refugee]

26 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

That is the curse of being a quarterback being a top 5 pick and going to a ****ty team. I fear for Young, Stroud and Richardson. They are all up against it will teams with inferior talent. 

It just amazes me teams haven't watched the Packer way of developing quarterbacks and been patient enough to do so. 

If I'm an owner, I'd bring in a new coach and GM. Tell them to find a solid, smart vet and tell them they are starting for 3 years. Go get me a quarterback in round 1 and make them sit and develop. 

Not rocket science. 

In a capped league, you’re throwing away a huge advantage if you can have a good/great QB on a rookie deal. Year one might be getting thrown into the fire, but if they can survive and accelerate the learning curve, you can go all in early. Of course they could also get burned to a crisp. The correct way of doing it is the one that works but no one way is without risks. 

[vegas492]

9 minutes ago, Refugee said:

In a capped league, you’re throwing away a huge advantage if you can have a good/great QB on a rookie deal. Year one might be getting thrown into the fire, but if they can survive and accelerate the learning curve, you can go all in early. Of course they could also get burned to a crisp. The correct way of doing it is the one that works but no one way is without risks. 

Yeah, I replied to that post but deleted it.

Basically said what you said, but added that there is fine line between letting one sit for too long and rushing a kid out there.  Every prospect is different.

If it were me, I'd not put my rookie or young QB out there until the OL showed that they could protect him.  To me it would be as much about the line as it would be the QB.

Herbert was fine right away.  Mahomes sat for a year.  Burrow was fine.  Lawrence was fine, but learned under fire.  Each is different.

But my way would be to draft him with the idea of sitting him for a while.  A while being a couple of games to a year or two.  But if he can't start in his third year, then I've either drafted the wrong kid, or failed to get him a line that can protect him.

Love wise, Covid stunted that development.  He's getting his chance at the right time, IMO.

[Pugger]

30 minutes ago, Green19 said:

I see Colin cowherd is already walking back his jordan love take

I never watch that clown's show.  What was his take?  Negative?

[Zycho32]

2 minutes ago, Pugger said:

I never watch that clown's show.  What was his take?  Negative?

Love's been upgraded to a game manager on par with Trubisky when he made the playoffs. Now we're expected to falter in the 2nd half once there's game tape on Love.

[Leader]

8 minutes ago, Zycho32 said:

Love's been upgraded to a game manager on par with Trubisky when he made the playoffs. Now we're expected to falter in the 2nd half once there's game tape on Love.

At least he's willing to hedge his bets. If Love shows effectiveness over an extended time....Cowherd will give him his due. He's not like Bayless in that regard.

[Leader]

 

[Old Guy]

26 minutes ago, Refugee said:

In a capped league, you’re throwing away a huge advantage if you can have a good/great QB on a rookie deal. Year one might be getting thrown into the fire, but if they can survive and accelerate the learning curve, you can go all in early. Of course they could also get burned to a crisp. The correct way of doing it is the one that works but no one way is without risks. 

There is a huge advantage to drafting in the top 10 - 15. Throwing away multiple top 15 picks because you rush a quarterback into action that isn't ready is the worst use of capital in a capped league. 

List of teams who drafted QBs in top 15 in past decade:

2014 - Jax

2015 - TB, Ten

2016 - Rams, Phil

2017 - Chi, KC, Hous

2018 - Cle, Jets, Buf, Az

2019 - Az, Wa

2020 - Cin, Mia, LAC

2021 - Jax, Jets, 49ers, Chi, NE

2022 - None

2023 - Car, Hou, Indy

Strike though name not with same team. 10 out of 15 quarterbacks from 2015 - 2020 are not with the same team. 

Bold is a bust. 9 out of 15 are busts. 

The jury is still out on teh 2021 and 2023 class but the Jets and 49ers look like they already have busts, It a make-or-break year for Fields and Jones.  

 

[Brat&Beer]

PFF Fantasy Football

@PFF_Fantasy

 

Highest-graded WR in NFL preseason so far:  Romeo Doubs - 89.9

 

 

 

11:15 AM · Aug 21, 2023

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[Refugee]

1 hour ago, Old Guy said:

There is a huge advantage to drafting in the top 10 - 15. Throwing away multiple top 15 picks because you rush a quarterback into action that isn't ready is the worst use of capital in a capped league. 

List of teams who drafted QBs in top 15 in past decade:

2014 - Jax

2015 - TB, Ten

2016 - Rams, Phil

2017 - Chi, KC, Hous

2018 - Cle, Jets, Buf, Az

2019 - Az, Wa

2020 - Cin, Mia, LAC

2021 - Jax, Jets, 49ers, Chi, NE

2022 - None

2023 - Car, Hou, Indy

Strike though name not with same team. 10 out of 15 quarterbacks from 2015 - 2020 are not with the same team. 

Bold is a bust. 9 out of 15 are busts. 

The jury is still out on teh 2021 and 2023 class but the Jets and 49ers look like they already have busts, It a make-or-break year for Fields and Jones.  

 

Of course there’s a grain of truth to that but how many college QBs become NFL starters? The “bust” rate is high but increases as you go down in round of the draft. Like most things, there are multiple factors, the biggest one being landing in a program set up for success. That’s generally not the situation for teams drafting in the top 10. It’s a tough business but there’s not a clear consensus that a guy who washes out in his first season wouldn’t have had similar results if he sat for 2-3 years. There’s a sweet spot of development and also on the job learning best for each individual. If we had a crystal ball, getting a haul for 12 and getting 10 in there last year would have been the way to go but the business side of things makes that a lot trickier done than said. 

[Old Guy]

Just now, Refugee said:

Of course there’s a grain of truth to that but how many college QBs become NFL starters? The “bust” rate is high but increases as you go down in round of the draft. Like most things, there are multiple factors, the biggest one being landing in a program set up for success. That’s generally not the situation for teams drafting in the top 10. It’s a tough business but there’s not a clear consensus that a guy who washes out in his first season wouldn’t have had similar results if he sat for 2-3 years. There’s a sweet spot of development and also on the job learning best for each individual. If we had a crystal ball, getting a haul for 12 and getting 10 in there last year would have been the way to go but the business side of things makes that a lot trickier done than said. 

These were all top 15 picks in round 1. Nothing below that. I think my whole point was about the program. Which is don't rush kids into the starting lineup at QB especially. They should not play until they understand the offense, the checks and have a decent o-line and some talent at skilled positions. 

[vegas492]

28 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

These were all top 15 picks in round 1. Nothing below that. I think my whole point was about the program. Which is don't rush kids into the starting lineup at QB especially. They should not play until they understand the offense, the checks and have a decent o-line and some talent at skilled positions. 

So...if I'm expanding on this thought....

We did right by Love.  He watched MVP play and playoff caliber play for 2 years.  While watching a meh team last year.  Obviously GB had talent and was ready for him to step in.

Did the same thing happen with Andrew Luck?  That was a nice team around Peyton, then his neck injury hit.  Record was awful, but I have a feeling they pretty much tanked for Luck.

Not sure it happened that way with Herbert.  A doctor ushered him into the lineup.  That worked well, and I think, was kind of an outlier.

Lawrence?  That team hasn't been good in a while.  But I think they had cap space to make some nice moves for him.

Mahomes.  He rode pine for one year, but that team was ready to accept a new QB.

Burrow.  He's one where I think the team wasn't very good, but he elevated them big time.

Fields.  We know how bad that roster was.  They played him too early.  We shall see what happens.

Lance.  If ever there was an offense set up to be easy on the QB, it's that one.  And he's flat out stunk it up.

I guess, I'll ask you...did we move to Love at the right time?

And...Luck, was that team better than their record when he was drafted?  

I think I'm pretty much locked down on the other ones.

[R T]

The NFL wire has been very active this afternoon including the Packers making four moves. 

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

So...if I'm expanding on this thought....

We did right by Love.  He watched MVP play and playoff caliber play for 2 years.  While watching a meh team last year.  Obviously GB had talent and was ready for him to step in.

Did the same thing happen with Andrew Luck?  That was a nice team around Peyton, then his neck injury hit.  Record was awful, but I have a feeling they pretty much tanked for Luck.

Not sure it happened that way with Herbert.  A doctor ushered him into the lineup.  That worked well, and I think, was kind of an outlier.

Lawrence?  That team hasn't been good in a while.  But I think they had cap space to make some nice moves for him.

Mahomes.  He rode pine for one year, but that team was ready to accept a new QB.

Burrow.  He's one where I think the team wasn't very good, but he elevated them big time.

Fields.  We know how bad that roster was.  They played him too early.  We shall see what happens.

Lance.  If ever there was an offense set up to be easy on the QB, it's that one.  And he's flat out stunk it up.

I guess, I'll ask you...did we move to Love at the right time?

And...Luck, was that team better than their record when he was drafted?  

I think I'm pretty much locked down on the other ones.

Love, yes we did. Having his rookie year being COVID set him back. He was not going to be ready for at least two years. COVID set him back one year IMO. He was nowhere near ready to be an NFL quarterback coming out of college, but he had a skill set. BTW, same with Rodgers and his funky throwing motion. 

Quarterbacks are better served watching for a while. I'll leave that as a blanket statement and admit there are a few exceptions to that rule. More quarterbacks have been ruined by franchises who hurried to get them into the lineup. I think Richardson and Stroud should sit. I think Bryce Young can handle the mental aspects of the game right now, but his team around him is bad. All three would benefit from sitting and watching. None of them will be afforded that opportunity.

I think Andrew Luck retired early because of the pounding he took early on because he wasn't experienced enough to learn how to not take those hits. More importantly, he shouldn't be taking those hits. His body had had enough. 

As for Justin Fields, I'll be watching for one thing this year. When he can't go to his first read do his eyes go down looking for an escape route or will he sit in the pocket and go through his reads and make the correct decisions. I have serious doubts he's going to be able to do that. That was the knock on him coming out of college. It is why his coach his rookie year did not want to play him. The pressure from the FO got to him and he relented. Fields was a bad quarterback last year. Yet he was a heck of a running back. 

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by Old Guy

[Leader]

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[Pugger]

17 hours ago, Leader said:

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We really don't know how he is going to perform once the regular season starts.  So far so good but teams are not game planning for him to exploit his weaknesses, etc.  One thing I do like is his demeanor out there.  He appears to be leading his guys and showing a lot of poise.  You can't teach that.