MacReady Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 This is the type of stuff that interests me about the NFL outside of great defense and great defensive back play. NFL Future stuff. Running back market sucks because of the proliferation of WR talent in the NFL. The WR market went up as far as pay, but teams don't quite get that WR, as far as building a Super Bowl winner, is close to the bottom of the NFL in need. The amount of Super Bowl winners who have a sudden postseason emergence at RB are astounding. Pacheco for the Chiefs. Rams didn't have one. Ronald Jones for the Buccaneers Damien Williams was legit the MVP for Pat's first Super Bowl. Mahomes had two picks while Williams ran for 104 yards with a TD. Also caught the game winning TD pass. Sony Michel scored the only touchdown of the Patriots win over the Rams. Also had 94 yards rushing and was literally the only player consistently moving the ball. Blount with 90 yards and a TD in Foles Super Bowl win over Brady. Stokes with us... I'm not looking at all of them, but virtually every single Super Bowl with the exception of the Rams most recent win... It's a RB that's the X factor, that makes the difference. But somehow receivers are getting all the attention right now even though the amount of talent in the NFL at WR is absurd. There were 39 receivers over 8 yards per target in 2002. In 2022, that number shoots up to 52. Just so you know I'm not picking a random year, that number was 31 in 2003, then shot up to 50 in 2004 after rule changes. What's the difference between running backs in 2022 and running backs in 2002? Almost nothing. There were 17 running backs over 1000 yards in 2002. 16 in 2022. The talent field at RB is the same it was 20 years ago. The difficulty in being a running back is virtually the same. They're protected more, but the ability to run hasn't been increased. And they're still taking the same amount of hits (just not to the head). So what you're going to see now is 5,000 high school players up to college freshmen switching their position. There's going to be an influx of talent at S/CB/WR/ILB and other similarly sized positions. There's going to be an extreme shortage of running backs for... As long a gap as the market remains crap for running backs. There's going to be a window for a smashmouth type offense to legit compete for a Super Bowl, with or without a great QB, and I would be the biggest fan of that team in the world. Just look at when the safety market went to **** and then all at once there was an influx of WRs having great years because safeties are no longer getting drafted high and no longer making any money so everyone switched to a different position. I used a little hyperbole here, but the conversation is still interesting how the salary cap market for certain positions effects NFL history. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted August 31, 2023 Author Share Posted August 31, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refugee Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Leader said: AZ claimed 6/24 waivers. Full tank mode in the desert, just going to throw out a whole bunch of back of the roster guys and see what happens. Nice for the 9ers with Rams still all over the place and Sea probably trending up but not a serious heavyweight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 8 hours ago, Refugee said: AZ claimed 6/24 waivers. Full tank mode in the desert, just going to throw out a whole bunch of back of the roster guys and see what happens. Nice for the 9ers with Rams still all over the place and Sea probably trending up but not a serious heavyweight. This tells me their roster is so bad they went dumpster diving to find better. That organization is in shambles. It would be the perfect place for Caleb Williams to land, because he will bust hard there. That's a statement because he's about as good a prospect as has come out in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 (edited) The five highest paid TEs (Waller, Kittle, Kelce, Goedert, Andrew) average out to about 14.8M/yr so have to imagine Hockenson got at least that. Of course, the Vikings still have to pay Jefferson, figure out their QB situation, and a number of other UFAs so it's a real interesting move for a team straddling a rebuild. Edited August 31, 2023 by Striker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 Excellent move for GB, Lions and Bears! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted August 31, 2023 Author Share Posted August 31, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 42 minutes ago, Leader said: How much is guaranteed. That is the real number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Old Guy said: How much is guaranteed. That is the real number. Heard on Sirius XM that it will be the most guaranteed money in a TE contract so far. But we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted August 31, 2023 Author Share Posted August 31, 2023 Dolphins season hopes dont get crushed........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, Old Guy said: How much is guaranteed. That is the real number. Quote A source told Schefter that the average annual value of the deal is $17.125 million and that Hockenson will make $42.5 million guaranteed -- both the highest for a tight end in NFL history. Per ESPN 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 MIN paying Hockenson that contract explains why they decided to part with Cook. They knew what their priorities were. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 19 hours ago, MacReady said: This is the type of stuff that interests me about the NFL outside of great defense and great defensive back play. NFL Future stuff. Running back market sucks because of the proliferation of WR talent in the NFL. The WR market went up as far as pay, but teams don't quite get that WR, as far as building a Super Bowl winner, is close to the bottom of the NFL in need. The amount of Super Bowl winners who have a sudden postseason emergence at RB are astounding. Pacheco for the Chiefs. Rams didn't have one. Ronald Jones for the Buccaneers Damien Williams was legit the MVP for Pat's first Super Bowl. Mahomes had two picks while Williams ran for 104 yards with a TD. Also caught the game winning TD pass. Sony Michel scored the only touchdown of the Patriots win over the Rams. Also had 94 yards rushing and was literally the only player consistently moving the ball. Blount with 90 yards and a TD in Foles Super Bowl win over Brady. Stokes with us... I'm not looking at all of them, but virtually every single Super Bowl with the exception of the Rams most recent win... It's a RB that's the X factor, that makes the difference. But somehow receivers are getting all the attention right now even though the amount of talent in the NFL at WR is absurd. There were 39 receivers over 8 yards per target in 2002. In 2022, that number shoots up to 52. Just so you know I'm not picking a random year, that number was 31 in 2003, then shot up to 50 in 2004 after rule changes. What's the difference between running backs in 2022 and running backs in 2002? Almost nothing. There were 17 running backs over 1000 yards in 2002. 16 in 2022. The talent field at RB is the same it was 20 years ago. The difficulty in being a running back is virtually the same. They're protected more, but the ability to run hasn't been increased. And they're still taking the same amount of hits (just not to the head). So what you're going to see now is 5,000 high school players up to college freshmen switching their position. There's going to be an influx of talent at S/CB/WR/ILB and other similarly sized positions. There's going to be an extreme shortage of running backs for... As long a gap as the market remains crap for running backs. There's going to be a window for a smashmouth type offense to legit compete for a Super Bowl, with or without a great QB, and I would be the biggest fan of that team in the world. Just look at when the safety market went to **** and then all at once there was an influx of WRs having great years because safeties are no longer getting drafted high and no longer making any money so everyone switched to a different position. I used a little hyperbole here, but the conversation is still interesting how the salary cap market for certain positions effects NFL history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Striker said: The five highest paid TEs (Waller, Kittle, Kelce, Goedert, Andrew) average out to about 14.8M/yr so have to imagine Hockenson got at least that. Of course, the Vikings still have to pay Jefferson, figure out their QB situation, and a number of other UFAs so it's a real interesting move for a team straddling a rebuild. It's actually kind of crazy that Kelce/Andrews et al make Hunter Renfrow money. Not a fan of Hock or a Hock hater for that matter, but I'd rather have him than what a WR fetches at that cap number. Edited August 31, 2023 by skibrett15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: It's actually kind of crazy that Kelce/Andrews et al make Hunter Renfrow money. Not a fan of Hock or a Hock hater for that matter, but I'd rather have him than what a WR fetches at that cap number. Yeah that's my takeaway too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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