Eagles vs Patriots SBLII GDT

[Apparition]

Yeah, people talked about the Pats' super easy schedule last year, too...

????

[childofpudding]

45 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Before the bye:

Alex Smith, DeShaun Watson, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Drew Brees

After the bye:

Josh McCown, Tyrod Taylor, Tyrod Taylor, Jay Cutler,  Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Brock Osweiler, Derek Carr

Is this really difficult to see?

So the question really is, which Nick Foles are we going to get? Before the bye caliber or after the bye caliber? In two weeks, can Belichick/Patricia devise a game plan, and can the team execute on it, that might make a before-the-bye caliber Foles look like an after-the-bye caliber Foles? It's very likely that's what determines this game.

[Pats#1]

On 1/27/2018 at 9:59 PM, jonu62882 said:

I just don't believe that there wasn't any competitive advantage gained from all this no matter how good they are...

I mean why even do it if you're that good...I mean just head and shoulders above everyone.

First of all, I think the Pats benefited against so many crappy teams within their division over the last 17 years.  Their division provides no real challenge so they feast on that, get easy wins, and that helps boost their record year in and year out to get them to the playoffs and HFA's.  They are 72-21 against the AFC East since 2001.  That's insane.  And you know BB, tries anything to gain advantages for the big games.  Are they genius, brilliant, and talented?  No doubt, but you can't tell me the Pats wouldn't be this successful without all this extra help and that there isn't some advantage gained by what he was doing.

You know what's even more insane...they have the same win % against the rest of the league too

 

BB was stealing signals, something countless other coaches were doing, he was just the beat at cataloging it and creating a system to best help him in future meetings.

 

Brady's has a better passer rating post deflated balls than pre.

 

I completely agree they gained competitive advantages, they just gained those advantages by being better at doing the same type of crap others were trying.

 

So you can keep telling yourself the Pats got help, I'll enjoy sitting back and knowing the Pats have continued to win championships over and over and over even under a microscope by every opponent looking for any excuse they can to cast doubt on the Pats greatness and make themselves feel better. 

 

So sure, I hope it's a clean game, I hope the Eagles don't cheat or do anything nefarious as well. 

[lancerman]

21 minutes ago, Pats#1 said:

You know what's even more insane...they have the same win % against the rest of the league too

 

BB was stealing signals, something countless other coaches were doing, he was just the beat at cataloging it and creating a system to best help him in future meetings.

 

Brady's has a better passer rating post deflated balls than pre.

 

I completely agree they gained competitive advantages, they just gained those advantages by being better at doing the same type of crap others were trying.

 

So you can keep telling yourself the Pats got help, I'll enjoy sitting back and knowing the Pats have continued to win championships over and over and over even under a microscope by every opponent looking for any excuse they can to cast doubt on the Pats greatness and make themselves feel better. 

 

So sure, I hope it's a clean game, I hope the Eagles don't cheat or do anything nefarious as well. 

2001- 2006 (when Spygate would have occured) 70-26. or a .729 win percentage

2007-present (post Spygate) 139-37 or a .789 win percentage. 

They were actually better after Spygate stopped.

Just like how supposedly Brady would be worse and the Patriots would fumble more after deflategate.

[Pats#1]

Back on topic...

 

The strength of Philly in the trenches is where most of my worries are based. On the offensive side, while Foles may not be the most consistent QB, he's been good in the playoffs so far and if the Pats give him all day to throw, it's inevitable that guys like Jeffrey and Ertz will consistently get open. 

 

Pats have long had a problem with good tight ends feasting up the seams and finding open pockets, and Ertz is a very very good TE. Pats are going to need to find a way to pressure Foles and get him panicking in the pocket.

 

On the defensive side, while the Jags had the better high end talent on the DL, the Eagles have the depth to not tire as much down the stretch and get consistent pressure late into the game. 

 

Pats are going to have to go uptempo to keep a lot of the DL on the field and tire them out as much as possible.

 

If Brady can get 3 seconds of clean pocket consistently, I think he'll be able to pick apart the lesser secondary....easier said than done though.

 

I honestly see two very evenly matched teams....great news for football fans, bad news for my heart that can't take another close game. 

[mcmurtry86]

3 hours ago, childofpudding said:

So the question really is, which Nick Foles are we going to get? Before the bye caliber or after the bye caliber? In two weeks, can Belichick/Patricia devise a game plan, and can the team execute on it, that might make a before-the-bye caliber Foles look like an after-the-bye caliber Foles? It's very likely that's what determines this game.

How often do the Pats make mediocre to bad QB's look bad though?

Even if Bad Foles shows up, he should be able to move the ball on this Pats D. 

[Jlowe22]

3 hours ago, Pats#1 said:

You know what's even more insane...they have the same win % against the rest of the league too

 

BB was stealing signals, something countless other coaches were doing, he was just the beat at cataloging it and creating a system to best help him in future meetings.

 

Brady's has a better passer rating post deflated balls than pre.

 

I completely agree they gained competitive advantages, they just gained those advantages by being better at doing the same type of crap others were trying.

 

The truth is, BB probably goes out of his way to make sure nothing the team does can be portrayed as cheating.  After getting burned in Spygate, and then deflategate, I expect him to be super strict on things most teams do that "skirt" the rules.

But it's always a good time when you're making fun of Bellicheat and Shady, so why stop now?

[childofpudding]

21 minutes ago, mcmurtry86 said:

How often do the Pats make mediocre to bad QB's look bad though?

Even if Bad Foles shows up, he should be able to move the ball on this Pats D. 

Not often. Maybe a handful of games where they held the QB ~200 yards or less and generated turnovers. Foles has that type of potential game in him, though, we all know he does.

[mcmurtry86]

Just now, childofpudding said:

 Foles has that type of potential game in him, though, we all know he does.

So do all the bad QB's the Pats have let move the ball at will. And the Eagles should be able to run fairly easily. 

The Pats need to win a shootout because their D is likely to get torched. 

[Jlowe22]

1 minute ago, mcmurtry86 said:

So do all the bad QB's the Pats have let move the ball at will. And the Eagles should be able to run fairly easily. 

The Pats need to win a shootout because their D is likely to get torched. 

Eagles might torch the Pats D, because Eagles are a great team.  

But the Patriots have one of the best red zone defenses by percentage in the league.  I think that's underrated to a lot of fans who focus on yards given up.  It's similarly ranked with the Falcons D, who held the Eagles to a respectable number of points.

If Foles plays badly, Pats probably win, and win comfortably.  If Foles plays like he did vs the Vikings, the Eagles can and will beat any team in the league.  If Foles is average, that's where things get interesting IMO.

[childofpudding]

1 minute ago, mcmurtry86 said:

So do all the bad QB's the Pats have let move the ball at will. And the Eagles should be able to run fairly easily. 

The Pats need to win a shootout because their D is likely to get torched. 

Not sure what you mean by torched. They havent allowed >30 since early in the season. I predicted they would allow 24 so we'll see.

[mcmurtry86]

1 minute ago, Jlowe22 said:

Eagles might torch the Pats D, because Eagles are a great team.  

But the Patriots have one of the best red zone defenses by percentage in the league.  I think that's underrated to a lot of fans who focus on yards given up.  It's similarly ranked with the Falcons D, who held the Eagles to a respectable number of points.

If Foles plays badly, Pats probably win, and win comfortably.  If Foles plays like he did vs the Vikings, the Eagles can and will beat any team in the league.  If Foles is average, that's where things get interesting IMO.

Problem with "great red zone D" is that a lot of it is dependent upon takeaways (Pats have struggled mightily with getting them), luck (Steelers melt down), sample size and coaching. Furthermore, giving up tons of yards impacts your offense significantly

The Giants beat the Pats in two Super Bowls by keeping Brady off the field. Yes, the miracle pass plays and their undeniably effective pass rush were huge parts of it. But racking up yards, even if they end up in no points or field goals, keeps the field advantage on your opponent's side and keeps the clock moving. 

I expect the Eagles to get 400 yards and 27-31 points. It's a deep and talented offense against a mediocre D which matches up poorly. 

The Pats can win, but will need another Brady Miracle. 

[Jlowe22]

42 minutes ago, mcmurtry86 said:

Problem with "great red zone D" is that a lot of it is dependent upon takeaways (Pats have struggled mightily with getting them), luck (Steelers melt down), sample size and coaching Furthermore, giving up tons of yards impacts your offense significantly

The Giants beat the Pats in two Super Bowls by keeping Brady off the field. Yes, the miracle pass plays and their undeniably effective pass rush were huge parts of it. But racking up yards, even if they end up in no points or field goals, keeps the field advantage on your opponent's side and keeps the clock moving. 

I expect the Eagles to get 400 yards and 27-31 points. It's a deep and talented offense against a mediocre D which matches up poorly. 

The Pats can win, but will need another Brady Miracle. 

Well Eagles just torched the Vikings, so they can torch anybody.  Pats defense stops teams from scoring better than most teams in the league, and that's the most important thing a defense can do.  They don't get many takeaways though, and that's a bigger weakness than yards given up.  Historically though, they've averaged something like 30 a year.

Some of that is due to playing weak offenses, but if bad Foles shows up, the Eagles will not be a great offense.

54 minutes ago, mcmurtry86 said:

sample size and coaching.

Well every team is subjected to the same sample size, and coaching is usually a significant advantage for the Patriots.

[Pats#1]

1 hour ago, Jlowe22 said:

The truth is, BB probably goes out of his way to make sure nothing the team does can be portrayed as cheating.  After getting burned in Spygate, and then deflategate, I expect him to be super strict on things most teams do that "skirt" the rules.

But it's always a good time when you're making fun of Bellicheat and Shady, so why stop now?

[Apparition]

1 hour ago, Jlowe22 said:

The truth is, BB probably goes out of his way to make sure nothing the team does can be portrayed as cheating.  After getting burned in Spygate, and then deflategate, I expect him to be super strict on things most teams do that "skirt" the rules.

But it's always a good time when you're making fun of Bellicheat and Shady, so why stop now?

I'd argue that the rest of the league having the notion in its head that the Pats are still somehow engaging in espionage works to their advantage because it creates paranoia that leads to distraction and panic among opponents.