Dashing202 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Also stop with the smith weapons. Hill had 500 yards last year he wasn't some proven 1000 yard guy. Before this year he wasn't just an unproven wideout that took Macklin spot . jamal Charles for the past 3-4 years been injured . Mackin was good for one year than got injured and released . smith wasn't like Kirk who had weapons galore for two good seasons. jackson/garçon/Thompson/crowder/Reed and first round pick doctson. smith finally got a good running back this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Hunt is better than any RB on our team. Kelce > Reed. WRs are a toss up. Why are things going to get better for Smith? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, Woz said: And Smith is getting yet new coordinator, but that's supposed to be a point in his favor? Or that Kirk was better than Smith in two of three past seasons, and the only where he wasn't was a season when the Redskins had their team decimated by injuries and lost two top receivers (and had no run game)? That's a point in Smith's favor ... when he's coming to that very situation this season? Kirk threw the ball more so Alex didn't have those opportunities and Alex didn't have Garcon, Crowder & Djax in 2015 & 16. If Alex had thrown the ball as many times as Kirk in each of the last 3 years most likely he would have put up similar numbers to his 2017 numbers or even better. In 2017 Smith was given week 17 off to get rest and to make sure Smith was healthy for the playoffs. If he had played that game based on his averages he would have thrown for 270 yards and 2 tds meaning, his 2017 stats would have ended up better than Kirk Cousins' if Andy Reid had played Smith in week 17. 67%, 4312 yards and 28 tds. In 2016, Smith also only played 15 games. He threw 117 less passes than Kirk Cousins. Based off his completion % of 65% if Smith had thrown it as much as Cousins he would have completed 76 more passes for 702 yards. He averaged only a TD pass per game in 2016 but, if he had thrown the ball 117 more times like Kirk, clearly, he would have had thrown for around or over 4,200 yards based on the averages and throwing it more times, Smith likely would have had 20 TDs or more. In 2015 Smith did play all 16 games and if he had thrown the ball 73 more times like Kirk did, he would have completed 47 more passes based on his completion %. That translates into 436 more yards and 4 more tds in 2015. So, his finals stats would have been 65%, 3922 yards and 24 tds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Boy some of you will talk yourselves into anything every offseason. Wins: Kirk will be better leading this team forward. Losses: Every other freaking thing this team has ever done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Woz said: Because that would be significantly higher than where the market is right now. I agree with @Slappy Mc in that he's probably going to get something around 25M AAV, 26M. I believe he is worth 25M AAV, but he will most definitely get more than Matt Staffords 27M AAV. I could see 28 or 29, maybe even 30. I know the minimum I would play for this year if I was Kirk is 35M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: Hunt is better than any RB on our team. Kelce > Reed. WRs are a toss up. Why are things going to get better for Smith? Well for one most people have turned this into a stat conversation but they've ignored that Kirk has thrown the ball 225 more times than Smith over the last 3 years and Smith has missed two games (one because Reid sat him down in week 17 last year so he was healthy for the playoffs). It's true, Hunt is better at rushing than the 3 backs we had (I'd argue Thompson is a better receiver than Hunt though) and that took pressure off of Alex but most aren't realizing that when hunt is getting carries he's also taking away stat opportunities from Smith. So overall, this makes Smith look worse than Cousins because of pure stats but that doesn't make it exactly true. Hunt had 8 rushing tds this year, that probably took away a few passing TD opportunities for Smith. The Redskins sure as hell didn't try to run the ball in the redzone much since Kirk has become our starter. Oh, "wrs are a toss up?" What a convenient line. Things aren't going to get better for Smith, I'd argue they are going to stay about the same as they were last year and I'd also say Smith will have the most passing attempts he's ever had in his career in Gruden's offense. Harbaugh ran run first/ground and pound offense and Andy Reid is one of the most balanced playcallers in the entire NFL. Based on Gruden's history most of the time in Cincy and in his time in DC, he's not likely to be a balanced playcaller and that means Smith will throw more. Smith is just as accurate as Kirk is as a passer, it's totally probable he has a better statistical season than he had last year. What I hope happens is that we sign a good vet WR to start opposite Doctson; Doctson develops, Reed and Thompson play at least 12 games and both Crowder and Doctson have less dropsies than they had in 2017. If that happens, thrown in with a more healthy defense, a 1st or 2nd round draft pick at running back or a good FA and the team should be better overall than it's been the last two years and maybe better than the last 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Oh, "wrs are a toss up?" What a convenient line. Things aren't going to get better for Smith, I'd argue they are going to stay about the same as they were last year Thanks for making it more convenient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: Boy some of you will talk yourselves into anything every offseason. Wins: Kirk will be better leading this team forward. Losses: Every other freaking thing this team has ever done. Kirk has been on his way out of town since the team didn't sign him to a LTD in 2016, he'll never say it, but IMO he was extremely upset that the FO didn't want to pay him more than what they were going to pay RG3 on a 5th year option despite Kirk having the best season in the 85-year team history. Ever since the first franchise tag, Kirk has been on his way out the door and buying his time until that would happen for him. Of course he took $44 million from the team to play two seasons, why wouldn't he? Anyone else would as well, he knew that this offseason at worst he would get $35 million in another franchise tag and then leave the Redskins next March or get transition tagged and the Redskins or someone would meet his contract demands. It doesn't matter if Kirk would have been better for the team going forward because that was not an option for Kirk after the first franchise tag. He couldn't wait to hit free agency, be courted by other teams and get the hell out of DC and away from Snyder and Allen. The quicker we realize this, the better it will be for everyone to just move on. Kirk was never coming back, Lavar was right about that the last two seasons. The Front Office never showed him the RG3 love even though Kirk did more with less talent especially the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dashing202 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: Hunt is better than any RB on our team. Kelce > Reed. WRs are a toss up. Why are things going to get better for Smith? Dude Reed crowder and Thompson aren't bad . Doctson wasn't bad either he was over thrown a few times and was force to catch like miracle throws . Like you said just now on turtle post your correct . Smith gonna be what he is that's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 50 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Ah, projections. When you do projections do you project how a player might get better from what they did last year? Or do you do an average of the last decade or last 5 years and say well, he was like this 5 or 10 years ago so that's what he is, and last year doesn't matter? A three year average gives you a decent approximation. I would point out that in every case where I was showing Smith's stats, I tried to show both his career stats as well as KC stats (which are more relevant, but come with an Andy Reid inflation risk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Kirk threw the ball more so Alex didn't have those opportunities and Alex didn't have Garcon, Crowder & Djax in 2015 & 16. If Alex had thrown the ball as many times as Kirk in each of the last 3 years most likely he would have put up similar numbers to his 2017 numbers or even better. Again, I focused on the rate stats to ignore the number of attempt difference. If I throw 60 of 100 and you throw 120 of 200, we both threw for 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dashing202 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Woz said: Again, I focused on the rate stats to ignore the number of attempt difference. If I throw 60 of 100 and you throw 120 of 200, we both threw for 60%. Omg I'm awful at math.explain a bit more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Woz said: A three year average gives you a decent approximation. I would point out that in every case where I was showing Smith's stats, I tried to show both his career stats as well as KC stats (which are more relevant, but come with an Andy Reid inflation risk). Sure but you're just looking at raw stats, not looking at how many less times Smith threw the ball or that Smith didn't play 16 games in 2015 & 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Woz said: Again, I focused on the rate stats to ignore the number of attempt difference. If I throw 60 of 100 and you throw 120 of 200, we both threw for 60%. Yeah, but if Kirk throws it 200 times and Alex throws it 100 times then Kirk is going to have 60 more completions which leads to more yards and more passing tds. That's my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, Dashing202 said: Dude Reed crowder and Thompson aren't bad . Doctson wasn't bad either he was over thrown a few times and was force to catch like miracle throws . Like you said just now on turtle post your correct . Smith gonna be what he is that's fine. That's the problem though. It keeps us at status quo: 7-9 or 8-8 at best. We don't get better. It's the FO fault for being jerks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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