Doug Farrar" Redskins improved with Alex smith "

[Dashing202]

5 minutes ago, Woz said:

Okay, well that's something. Still, we'd have to pay free agency rates to keep him. Since the Redskins traded Fuller, that gives him a bit more leverage in negotiations unless they're sure that Moreau and Dunbar can handle it. In that case, why go after Breeland?

A trade will happen if all of the following things happen:

1. Another QB needy team (call them Franchise X) believes the Redskins are not going to rescind the tag.
2. Franchise X believes that there are no better options (either in house, in free agency or in the upcoming draft) for them at quarterback.
3. The Redskins get what they think to be fair compensation from Franchise X for letting Cousins sign with Franchise X.
4. Cousins is willing to go to Franchise X and will sign the tender in order to be traded to Franchise X.
5. The Redskins trade Cousins to Franchise X for the agreed upon amount.
6. Franchise X either has the available cap space to absorb the franchise tag immediately or is able to offer an acceptable long term deal to Cousins quickly so as to remove the $35M cap hold from them.

If any of those things doesn't happen or isn't the case, then a trade deal is going to fall through. Maybe point 6 can slide, if the team is willing to be unable to make any transactions (including draft players) until they get into cap compliance. Of course, if point 6 slides, Franchise X is giving A LOT of leverage to Cousins and his camp since he would have to agree to a long term deal.

Remember, per the CBA, Franchise X cannot negotiate at all with Cousins until he is traded to them. His fully guaranteed contract of $35M hits their cap immediately (it's no longer a tag but an actual contract once point 4 happens).

Only if my points 1-5 hold up. Otherwise, the Redskins best hope is a 3rd round compensatory pick provided they don't hurt themselves in free agency.

They are not saying "Oh, too bad the Redskins are in cap hell, let's leave them there." They would be saying "if we trade for Cousins, we would lock up our cap immediately until we either clear space, or we can agree to a long term contract with Cousins (something the Redskins have theoretically tried to do for the past two plus years). Do we want to risk this?"

*Woz discovers he has a melanoma on his skin*
*Woz decides to douse himself in kerosene and set his whole body on fire in order to get rid of the melanoma*

Hey, what do I have to lose?

Think about what you said for a moment: in order to justify going down this path, Bruce Allen has to believe that he can get something in exchange for Kirk Cousins that is higher than a 2019 compensatory pick. If he's wrong, he's more than likely fired. If he lets Cousins walk, he can still get that compensatory pick (provided he is smart in free agency (c'mon now, let's assume this fantasy full out)), without the risk to his job. He can point to the fact that they tried to sign Cousins multiple times and they just couldn't come to an agreement.

Let's go a step further: assume for a moment that Allen is wrong and this blows up in his face. As collateral damage, it ruins the ability of the franchise to keep talented players like Zach Brown, as well as other free agents. It could even impede their ability to sign draft picks right away. It could even further make Washington a destination you only go to if you are truly desperate (i.e. Cleveland of the NFC). The 2018 season is a disaster due to the thinness of the roster. Allen is fired and so is Gruden.

So, now the Redskins have a ton of space (but no free agents want to come here), and an even thinner roster (will we be able to keep our 2014 class folks from leaving?).

All of this to get a better pick in 2018 because they screwed up the negotiations for two years? Is this worth it?

 

 

PS This is the GM of Franchise X:

Omg he does look like him. 

Haha racer X

[Woz]

57 minutes ago, Dashing202 said:

Question why would Kirk deny the broncos the Browns the cardinals the jets the Vikings ?. 

• Broncos - would probably like going here, but right now, they couldn't afford to bring him onto their cap; yes, they can cut Talib and make the space, but then they'll be just like the Redskins with only about $1-2M in 2018 cap space.
• Browns - because he doesn't want to go to a team that is an even bigger circus/laughingstock than the Redskins? Besides they have the first overall pick, why give up anything to get a one year rental?
• Cardinals - they don't have the cap space right now either; they could cut Larry Fitzgerald and make the space, but that's going to probably be a negative for Cousins to want to go there. There may be other players they could work with to create space by renegotiating or cuts, but I haven't investigated them
• Jaguars - they've come out and said they're going with Blake Bortles this season (5th year option for him is $19M); Cousins doesn't want to get into a situation where he may have to compete for the job.
• Jets - possibly could do it, if he's interested in them; question given that they are at the top of the draft (and have quite a few needs), why would they trade for him?
• Vikings - apparently, this is Cousins' number one target, and I think the feeling could be mutual if he was just a simple free agent; however, if they have to give something up for him, why not roll with Keenum or Bridgewater?

 

So, he'd like to go to the Broncos and Vikings, with lesser interest in Cardinals and Jaguars. The teams that could absorb his $35M contract are the Browns, Jets, and Vikings. So, it would seem the Vikings would be the best fit except they just went to the NFC Championship game with a QB who they can control without giving up any draft picks for.

[Thaiphoon]

4 hours ago, Woz said:

Okay, well that's something. Still, we'd have to pay free agency rates to keep him. Since the Redskins traded Fuller, that gives him a bit more leverage in negotiations unless they're sure that Moreau and Dunbar can handle it. In that case, why go after Breeland?

A trade will happen if all of the following things happen:

1. Another QB needy team (call them Franchise X) believes the Redskins are not going to rescind the tag.
2. Franchise X believes that there are no better options (either in house, in free agency or in the upcoming draft) for them at quarterback.
3. The Redskins get what they think to be fair compensation from Franchise X for letting Cousins sign with Franchise X.
4. Cousins is willing to go to Franchise X and will sign the tender in order to be traded to Franchise X.
5. The Redskins trade Cousins to Franchise X for the agreed upon amount.
6. Franchise X either has the available cap space to absorb the franchise tag immediately or is able to offer an acceptable long term deal to Cousins quickly so as to remove the $35M cap hold from them.

If any of those things doesn't happen or isn't the case, then a trade deal is going to fall through. Maybe point 6 can slide, if the team is willing to be unable to make any transactions (including draft players) until they get into cap compliance. Of course, if point 6 slides, Franchise X is giving A LOT of leverage to Cousins and his camp since he would have to agree to a long term deal.

Remember, per the CBA, Franchise X cannot negotiate at all with Cousins until he is traded to them. His fully guaranteed contract of $35M hits their cap immediately (it's no longer a tag but an actual contract once point 4 happens).

Only if my points 1-5 hold up. Otherwise, the Redskins best hope is a 3rd round compensatory pick provided they don't hurt themselves in free agency.

They are not saying "Oh, too bad the Redskins are in cap hell, let's leave them there." They would be saying "if we trade for Cousins, we would lock up our cap immediately until we either clear space, or we can agree to a long term contract with Cousins (something the Redskins have theoretically tried to do for the past two plus years). Do we want to risk this?"

*Woz discovers he has a melanoma on his skin*
*Woz decides to douse himself in kerosene and set his whole body on fire in order to get rid of the melanoma*

Hey, what do I have to lose?

Think about what you said for a moment: in order to justify going down this path, Bruce Allen has to believe that he can get something in exchange for Kirk Cousins that is higher than a 2019 compensatory pick. If he's wrong, he's more than likely fired. If he lets Cousins walk, he can still get that compensatory pick (provided he is smart in free agency (c'mon now, let's assume this fantasy full out)), without the risk to his job. He can point to the fact that they tried to sign Cousins multiple times and they just couldn't come to an agreement.

Let's go a step further: assume for a moment that Allen is wrong and this blows up in his face. As collateral damage, it ruins the ability of the franchise to keep talented players like Zach Brown, as well as other free agents. It could even impede their ability to sign draft picks right away. It could even further make Washington a destination you only go to if you are truly desperate (i.e. Cleveland of the NFC). The 2018 season is a disaster due to the thinness of the roster. Allen is fired and so is Gruden.

So, now the Redskins have a ton of space (but no free agents want to come here), and an even thinner roster (will we be able to keep our 2014 class folks from leaving?).

All of this to get a better pick in 2018 because they screwed up the negotiations for two years? Is this worth it?

 

 

PS This is the GM of Franchise X:

Thank you @Woz, its helpful that you, @Doc Draper and a few others see it like me.

Don't get me wrong, I HOPE we are able to unload him for a higher pick. I just don't see the likelihood.

[MikeT14]

15 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Not if, yes I know "IF" the team around Smith gets better than the team that was around Kirk the last 3 seasons. Doctson should be better next year (hopefully Reed and Thompson stay more healthy), hopefully we sign or draft a true starting WR to play opposite Doctson and hopefully we find an upgrade at RB and our OL stays more healthy. I know that's a lot of "IFs" for our offense, but not impossible. We'll also now have an extra $11 to 18 million to sign on one great free agent, 2 good free agents or 3 JAGs we hope will take the next step coming off their rookie seasons. Moving on from Kirk and getting the cheaper Smith definitely should put us in the signing Jarvis Landry category now which, before I never believed we be in. 

Boy that IS a lot of ...

 

Why would you ever leave your hopes on this franchise to do the right thing?

[oldman9er]

1 hour ago, MikeT14 said:

Why would you ever leave your hopes on this franchise to do the right thing?

I would counter with a "what do you really have to lose?" 

I personally find it more enjoyable to go through football, heck life, with a positive approach.

If you are staring at a terrible HC.. bottom tier starting QB, and overall talent deprived roster.. then I could better appreciate this concept of giving up for a while.. stepping away... finding something better to do with your time.. etc. 

Kirk left. Washington brought in a solid, top 5 QB in win % over the last several years to offset this. They are getting a lot of players back healthy.. and they will be able to address the few clear weaknesses.. like LG, RB, NT, and any other lesser concerns. 

 

There must be some hope left in you, or why not just move on entirely from them?  If you are rejecting hope because you feel you can not handle the pain of disappointing results? then you are either underestimating your own strength... or are taking a sports game far too seriously. 

Just my opinion, and I have been known to be a blistering moron, so there is that.

[MikeT14]

I've moved on before. Took the rest of the 2011 season off. It went well. I'm stuck as a Redskins fan though. I don't really like any other teams - I can't. My grandfather raised me burgundy and gold.

That said, I've been dealt a bad hand since Dan Snyder took over. As long as he is there, I don't expect to ever pull blackjack on the deal.

[RSkinGM]

look, I've sung this song before so not going in depth but go read the history of the great owner Rooney family of the perrenial winners Pittsburgh Steelers. They went nearly forty years with 8 winning seasons and 1 playoff win. Things and people do ( sometimes ) change . Don't ever lose hope . Fight on fight on till you have won Sons of Washington !

 

[Slateman]

Jimmy G just got 5 years, 137 million. That should pretty much end any discussion of Cousins taking a year off and not getting a big contract. 

[Dashing202]

3 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

I've moved on before. Took the rest of the 2011 season off. It went well. I'm stuck as a Redskins fan though. I don't really like any other teams - I can't. My grandfather raised me burgundy and gold.

That said, I've been dealt a bad hand since Dan Snyder took over. As long as he is there, I don't expect to ever pull blackjack on the deal.

Hey listen ! U knew what happens when you signed up to be a full time die hard redskins fan.

you will suffer like the rest of us and will. Have to wait patiently for our 4th Super Bowl .?

[Woz]

5 hours ago, oldman9er said:

There must be some hope left in you, or why not just move on entirely from them?

Do you see that red and black thing to the left?

It's called a shackle.

[Woz]

1 hour ago, Slateman said:

Jimmy G just got 5 years, 137 million. That should pretty much end any discussion of Cousins taking a year off and not getting a big contract. 

And the bar just got reset higher ...

[turtle28]

23 hours ago, Woz said:

And the bar just got reset higher ...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/02/09/jimmy-g-gets-48-7-million-fully-guaranteed-at-signing/

Only 48.7 million guaranteed 

[e16bball]

So I just read through all 13 pages of this, and I’m really not sure it requires background in rocket science to draw the proper conclusion here. Here’s what we know:

1. Cousins had the better statistical performance in 2015 (probably) and 2016 (clearly). 

2. Smith had the better statistical performance in 2017 (clearly). 

3. Coincidentally, Cousins clearly had the better supporting cast in 2015 and 2016 (the seasons he put up better numbers) and Smith clearly had the better supporting cast in 2017 (the season he put up better numbers). 

4. Just kidding, it’s obviously not a coincidence. 

 

Neither of these guys are good enough to transcend their circumstances. They aren’t Brady or Brees or Rodgers, who can put up numbers with literally anyone to throw to. Their levels of production are always going to be dependent on the players around them and the offensive system they’re in. 

Cousins can probably succeed in a wider variety of offensive systems, because he’s more willing and (probably) more able to stand in the pocket and sling the ball around and push it downfield more aggressively. I actually think Smith is the better fit for our particular system, because he’s smarter and a quicker thinker and more of a threat with his legs. 

But otherwise, they’re very similar. Extremely accurate, tough, good work ethic, strong enough arms. 

I don’t see much reason to expect a lot of drop-off (or a lot of improvement) in performance at that position. The key, with either of them, is always going to be who we manage to put around them.

[turtle28]

11 hours ago, e16bball said:

So I just read through all 13 pages of this, and I’m really not sure it requires background in rocket science to draw the proper conclusion here. Here’s what we know:

1. Cousins had the better statistical performance in 2015 (probably) and 2016 (clearly). 

2. Smith had the better statistical performance in 2017 (clearly). 

3. Coincidentally, Cousins clearly had the better supporting cast in 2015 and 2016 (the seasons he put up better numbers) and Smith clearly had the better supporting cast in 2017 (the season he put up better numbers). 

4. Just kidding, it’s obviously not a coincidence. 

 

Neither of these guys are good enough to transcend their circumstances. They aren’t Brady or Brees or Rodgers, who can put up numbers with literally anyone to throw to. Their levels of production are always going to be dependent on the players around them and the offensive system they’re in. 

Cousins can probably succeed in a wider variety of offensive systems, because he’s more willing and (probably) more able to stand in the pocket and sling the ball around and push it downfield more aggressively. I actually think Smith is the better fit for our particular system, because he’s smarter and a quicker thinker and more of a threat with his legs. 

But otherwise, they’re very similar. Extremely accurate, tough, good work ethic, strong enough arms. 

I don’t see much reason to expect a lot of drop-off (or a lot of improvement) in performance at that position. The key, with either of them, is always going to be who we manage to put around them.

Yes, and presumably with an extra $11 to 18 million to work with in cap space with Alex as our qb vs if we had transition or franchise tagged Kirk again we’d be able to get 1 great FA signed or 2 good FA’s signed that will help us win a few more games vs what happened in 2015 through 2017.

[oldman9er]

Looks good, e16. I think you nailed down Smith pretty well in that post.

I have read lots of hyperbole about "Alex Smith needing everything to be perfect around him" from his detractors. While he is not the best improviser of QBs, I don't believe he needs perfection. He just needs good around him. Even last season, his LT and LG were from from perfect, and not even good. The LG was downright awful. Losing Chris Conley for scrubs like Albert Wilson and Robinson was not good. Losing Kelce to an awful TE2 scrub like Harris was awful. 

Even the numbers speak this. If we are to assume for a moment that he had things perfect in 2017 KC (it was not, but it was the best he's had).. then that perfect had him as tops in the League. When things were far less perfect (2013-2016), he was still top 15. There's a huge chasm between needing perfect and needing reasonable help.

So this suggests that, as you say, he is dependent on the talent around him. This makes me feel really good about the Redskins' chances, and of course, the more boxes checked around him, the better. 

It will be interesting to me to see the difference between the Gruden + Smith combo versus the Reid + Smith combo. I believe them bringing in Matt Nagy really was the big difference in Alex becoming the best deep passer in the League last year.