Jared Goff vs Jimmy Garappolo

[HTTRDynasty]

^ You said Goff was the best, if not the best of the best, on deep throws last year.  

He ranked 9th on PFF according to you, 17th in the article I linked to, and 11th in the Next Gen stats in the link below.  That's hardly "the best".  I agree he was better than Jimmy G at that aspect.  I never disagreed there.  But I do think a lot of it had to do with having Watkins in the line-up.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000921980/article/alex-smith-matthew-stafford-head-top-deepball-throwers-of-17

[stl4life07]

22 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I'm talking a guy with 4.4 speed, like Watkins, not the 4.5 speed of Woods and Reynolds.  I think you will see the difference in how defenses play you without having a true deep threat that DC's are actually afraid of this year.  Redskins, who have a 4.5 guy in Docston, saw that difference last year with the loss of Desean.  It's why we went after Paul Richardson so hard this offseason.

Again I think the Rams will miss Watkins but not all that much. Quietly Woods showed he needs to be taken seriously and I think teams will have to account for Gurley to the point where Woods, Everett, Kupp, and Reynolds are going to have their chances to beat defenses down the field and they will. I don’t care how fast a person run 40 time, it’s about game speed. What I saw from Woods last season showed me he has game speed. I liked Reynolds a lot and don’t be shocked if he has more chemistry with Goff than even Watkins had with Goff. Reynolds will have a bigger role and I think he will easily surpass 39 catches 593yds and it’s possible he matches 8tds that Watkins had last season.  

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, stl4life07 said:

Again I think the Rams will miss Watkins but not all that much. Quietly Woods showed he needs to be taken seriously and I think teams will have to account for Gurley to the point where Woods, Everett, Kupp, and Reynolds are going to have their chances to beat defenses down the field and they will. I don’t care how fast a person run 40 time, it’s about game speed. What I saw from Woods last season showed me he has game speed. I liked Reynolds a lot and don’t be shocked if he has more chemistry with Goff than even Watkins had with Goff. Reynolds will have a bigger role and I think he will easily surpass 39 catches 593yds and it’s possible he matches 8tds that Watkins had last season.  

Let's just say I really doubt defensive coordinators are lying awake at night terrified of Woods beating their coverage deep.  I never said that he can't catch deep balls.  He'll get his fair share.  Doctson will too, and is probably better than Woods at that aspect, given his penchant to come down with 50-50 balls at a high rate.  But that doesn't mean that the Redskins felt they had a true deep threat on their team, that can open up the field for everyone around them, which is why they went out and got Richardson.

[stl4life07]

1 minute ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

^ You said Goff was the best, if not the best of the best, on deep throws last year.  

He ranked 9th on PFF according to you, 17th in the article I linked to, and 11th in the Next Gen stats in the link below.  That's hardly "the best".  I agree he was better than Jimmy G at that aspect.  I never disagreed there.  But I do think a lot of it had to do with having Watkins in the line-up.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000921980/article/alex-smith-matthew-stafford-head-top-deepball-throwers-of-17

Yeah in areas like QBR, tds to ints, yards per attempt Goff was the best or the best of the best. There are many other stats to look at in terms of down the field passing. How many 20+yd plays through the air. How many 40+yd plays through the air. I’m sure Goff and the Rams are tops or among the top. But again without even looking at numbers I’ve watch Goff  make big time chunk plays down the field. Another impressive was that pass to Woods down the field against Houston. He was throwing basically from his own endzone and he was going to take a shot but he still delivered a perfect strike to Woods who not only beat his man but ran away from everyone. 

[jrry32]

30 minutes ago, lancerman said:

QBR was in YOUR link that YOU supplied as evidence. Brady was better in bulk stats and equal or better in efficiency stats despite being asked to pass more. 

Bud, I linked you to Pro Football Reference because it contained their volume and efficiency numbers. The fact that QBR is listed doesn't mean I endorse it. And if you don't endorse it as a stat, I'm not sure why you'd use it (other than the fact that it's the only stat that supports your contention outside of completion percentage). Do you think QBR is a worthwhile stat? If the answer is no, there's no debate. We both think it's useless, so there was no reason for you to use it in your argument.

Brady was better in bulk stats because he attempted 100 more passes. If you compare him in efficiency stats, we end up with a breakdown of:

Completion Percentage - Brady

YPA (as well as the other YPA variants) - Goff

YPC - Goff

TD% - Goff

Int% - Brady

TD:Int Ratio - Tie

Passer Rating - Brady

Their years were remarkably similar statistically. Goff's numbers were absolutely on par with Brady's. It's silly to try and argue otherwise.

[jrry32]

35 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I'm talking a guy with 4.4 speed, like Watkins, not the 4.5 speed of Woods and Reynolds.  I think you will see the difference in how defenses play you without having a true deep threat that DC's are actually afraid of this year.  Redskins, who have a 4.5 guy in Docston, saw that difference last year with the loss of Desean.  It's why we went after Paul Richardson so hard this offseason.

Josh Reynolds is a long-strider. He can get vertical. His 40 time was 0.03 seconds slower than A.J. Green's. There's a reason the guy averaged 17.0 yards per catch during his career in the SEC.

Did the Redskins see that difference because of the loss of DeSean or because of the loss of McVay? You guys had Terrelle Pryor and his 4.3 40. He simply didn't pan out.

[stl4life07]

2 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Let's just say I really doubt defensive coordinators are lying awake at night terrified of Woods beating their coverage deep.  I never said that he can't catch deep balls.  He'll get his fair share.  Doctson will too, and is probably better than Woods at that aspect, given his penchant to come down with 50-50 balls at a high rate.  But that doesn't mean that the Redskins felt they had a true deep threat on their team, that can open up the field for everyone around them, which is why they went out and got Richardson.

I don’t think defenses will be afraid of Woods either but the scheme comes into play. As I mentioned about Woods deep ball against Houston. That was all scheme and Houston couldn’t stop it. Then you have the broken plays like we saw Goff connect with Woods against the Niners on TNF. Again I’m not trying to say the Rams won’t miss Watkins but it won’t be as bad as you think. Experts who know the game more than we do understand the Rams offense will still be very good even without Watkins. It’s like when the Saints traded away Cooks. Nobody on the Saints offense at receiver has the type of speed he has. Not even Thomas. People even questioned whether Thomas could have success without Cooks. Well he did and the Saints offense was just fine. I know the brought in Ginn Jr and he has speed but we know the drop issues he has. The drop off from Cooks to Ginn Jr is significant just because of the inconsistency of Ginn Jr. All the Saints needed was for Ginn Jr to give them some consistency and they would be fine without Cooks and he did and thus the Saints offense didn’t miss Cooks much at all. They missed him some but that’s it.

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

Josh Reynolds is a long-strider. He can get vertical. His 40 time was 0.03 seconds slower than A.J. Green's. There's a reason the guy averaged 17.0 yards per catch during his career in the SEC.

Did the Redskins see that difference because of the loss of DeSean or because of the loss of McVay? You guys had Terrelle Pryor and his 4.3 40. He simply didn't pan out.

So he's basically a lesser version of Josh Doctson?

Pryor couldn't catch a cold.  He was also injured for most of the year, so his speed just wasn't there.

[jrry32]

Just now, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

So he's basically a lesser version of Josh Doctson?

Pryor couldn't catch a cold.  He was also injured for most of the year, so his speed just wasn't there.

Marvin Jones was the comparison most people gave him coming out.

[HTTRDynasty]

15 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

I don’t think defenses will be afraid of Woods either but the scheme comes into play. As I mentioned about Woods deep ball against Houston. That was all scheme and Houston couldn’t stop it. Then you have the broken plays like we saw Goff connect with Woods against the Niners on TNF. Again I’m not trying to say the Rams won’t miss Watkins but it won’t be as bad as you think. Experts who know the game more than we do understand the Rams offense will still be very good even without Watkins. It’s like when the Saints traded away Cooks. Nobody on the Saints offense at receiver has the type of speed he has. Not even Thomas. People even questioned whether Thomas could have success without Cooks. Well he did and the Saints offense was just fine. I know the brought in Ginn Jr and he has speed but we know the drop issues he has. The drop off from Cooks to Ginn Jr is significant just because of the inconsistency of Ginn Jr. All the Saints needed was for Ginn Jr to give them some consistency and they would be fine without Cooks and he did and thus the Saints offense didn’t miss Cooks much at all. They missed him some but that’s it.

I know you're optimistic about your team, and I respect your passion.  I just think you should try to be realistic about how much having a 4.4, top 10 deep threat, opens up your offense.

That's a big reason the Pats made the trade for Cooks, and him getting hurt is a big reason they lost the SB, IMO.  

And the Saints just needed the threat that Ginn brought.  They didn't need him to put up similar production to Cooks, but that threat makes a huge difference, which is why they wanted him.

I still expect it to be a good offense, just like the Redskins' was last year when we were healthy.  I just don't expect your offense to be anywhere near as explosive as it was last year, because losing a top 10 deep threat will reverberate throughout the offense.

[HTTRDynasty]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Marvin Jones was the comparison most people gave him coming out.

Jones had a 4.46 40... pretty big difference.  Not saying Reynolds can't be a legit deep threat.  Just that he won't be the kind of guy DCs fear.

[jrry32]

Just now, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Jones had a 4.46 40... pretty big difference. 

Not really. Almost the entirety of the difference between their 40s is in the first 10 yards. Reynolds ran a 1.56 to Jones' 1.51. From 20 to 40 yards, both players had a split of 1.88 seconds.

Quote

Not saying Reynolds can't be a legit deep threat. Just that he won't be the kind of guy DCs fear.

This statement is inherently contradictory. If Reynolds is a legit deep threat, he'll be a guy DCs fear in that regard.

[HTTRDynasty]

25 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Not really. Almost the entirety of the difference between their 40s is in the first 10 yards. Reynolds ran a 1.56 to Jones' 1.51. From 20 to 40 yards, both players had a split of 1.88 seconds.

This statement is inherently contradictory. If Reynolds is a legit deep threat, he'll be a guy DCs fear in that regard.

You can break it down however you want.  Legit 4.4 speed is scary to go against deep.  4.5 speed?  Not so much... unless you're going against AJ Green, who ran 4.50 but has a bunch of other elite traits.  

Almost every WR in the league has the potential to be a deep threat.  There are levels to this though.  Your team doesn't have anyone that can equal the level of fear Watkins engendered in DCs.

 

[jrry32]

18 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

You can break it down however you want.  Legit 4.4 speed is scary to go against deep.  4.5 speed?  Not so much... unless you're going against AJ Green, who ran 4.50 but has a bunch of other elite traits.  

Right. I'm sure that's why no DC is worried about Antonio Brown beating his team deep. Don't try to boil a skill-set down to 40 times.

Quote

Almost every WR in the league has the potential to be a deep threat.  There are levels to this though.  Your team doesn't have anyone that can equal the level of fear Watkins engendered in DCs.

That's your assumption. One that could very well prove to be wrong. Even if it isn't, Watkins wasn't the guy carrying our passing offense last year. And the threat of him getting vertical wasn't the key to our offense.

[HTTRDynasty]

24 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Right. I'm sure that's why no DC is worried about Antonio Brown beating his team deep. Don't try to boil a skill-set down to 40 times.

As is the case with AJ Green, Brown has other elite traits to rely on.  Plus, him and Ben have the best WR-QB connection in the league IMO.

And it's obviously about more than just 40 times, that's just the most important aspect for most players.  Also have to take ball tracking ability, hand fighting, leaping ability, and ability to win 50-50 balls into account.  Most other WRs don't have these traits at an elite level.  How many other 4.5 or slower top 10 deep threats are there in the league who aren't elite players as a whole at the position?

24 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

That's your assumption. One that could very well prove to be wrong. Even if it isn't, Watkins wasn't the guy carrying our passing offense last year. And the threat of him getting vertical wasn't the key to our offense.

The style of offense McVay runs is always going to need a vertical threat to be anywhere near as explosive as it was last year.  IIRC, it's a mix of Gruden's offense and Shanahan's offense, with his own wrinkles thrown in.  The offense relies on true top 10 deep threats like Julio (and Gabriel in that scheme), Desean, and Watkins to maximize its potential.  Neither Gruden nor Shanahan had that last year.  This year, McVay lacks that player.  Obviously, the key to the offense will be Gurley, so as long as he stays healthy, the offense will be above average, but I wouldn't expect a top 5 offense next year if I were a Rams fan (the obvious caveat is if you get a top deep threat in the draft).