We Should Trade Preston Smith This Offseason

[MKnight82]

18 minutes ago, Woz said:

Yes, but the problem is that the Redskins have so many holes (LG, NT, MLB, at least one WR, RB, CB (while we might have options, I'm not sure they are workable options)). Making another one they would need to fill is dicey at best. Unless you think they can get by with Ryan Anderson, I don't see them doing it. I'm not saying I disagree with your logic, but I don't think it will improve the defense they way you envision it will.

I get the idea with trading Smith: you don't think he's part of the long term plans for the franchise, so get higher trade value than you would get from any possible compensatory pick. However, due to the lack of the 3rd round pick, if the Redskins do this, I feel like they have to put Ryan Anderson there and cross their fingers. If it works, jenga! If it doesn't, you fix it in the 2019 draft.

Ok lets address these as First Round possibilities:

LG - Would a first round LG help the team?  Definitely.  Is it the best use of our resources?  That's highly debatable.  We already have two high first round picks on the line, and a bunch of our cap dedicated to Trent Williams, Morgan Moses and Brandon Scherff already.  Scherff's going to want a raise coming up too.  Adding a first round LG would definitely upgrade the unit but I think we'd be hard pressed to extend that player once his rookie deal was up.  How could we possibly dedicate that much of our cap to the Oline alone?  

NT - If we pull the trigger on Payne you aren't going to see any complaints from me.  But the reality is spending a first round pick in the modern nfl on a 2 down run stuffer is not an efficient use of our draft resources.  Ideally we would select a high quality NT in the mid to later rounds.  

MLB - This is only a first round need if Zach Brown leaves.  We aren't going to draft a first round MLB with Zach Brown and Mason Foster under contract, and we have decent depth here with Spaight and JHC.  I can understand the argument for upgrading Mason Foster with a first round talent (especially if the right one was one the board); however, I believe the front office likely pitched Foster on returning with a chance to start.  Paying Mason Foster to be a backup on the bench, one that doesn't play special teams, isn't a very efficient use of resources either.  

WR - I can't argue this position.  We obviously need an upgrade at one of the starting WR positions.  However, since Doctson is still young and developing, I think its very likely we target a veteran WR in free agency to balance out his youth and inexperience.  That's just my hunch.  Another issue is that this is a pretty weak WR draft class.  

RB - I could be giddy on gameday with a new first round RB running over people.  The problem with this is that Gruden doesn't run the ball and spending a first round pick in the modern NFL on a RB isn't a very good use of draft capital.  

CB - We've got Dunbar and Moreau to battle for the #2 role.  Dunbar has been solid and Moreau was getting first round chatter last year but "fell" due to injury concerns.  We have resources already invested in both, the most efficient use of them is to give one of them a chance to take that #2 role.  We do need an upgrade in the slot, but I'd argue that isn't a position you fill with a first round pick.  

 

I'm all about maximizing value with our picks, particularly in positional value.  Ideally we'd be spending our top picks on the most important positions on the field.  ROLB is arguably the most important position in the modern NFL's 3-4 defense.  Our 3-4 ROLB is mediocre.  Upgrading the position with a First Round pick is an excellent use of that draft resource.  

[Woz]

2 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

RB - I could be giddy on gameday with a new first round RB running over people.  The problem with this is that Gruden doesn't run the ball and spending a first round pick in the modern NFL on a RB isn't a very good use of draft capital.  

Going to go slightly out of order here: I didn't say they had to use a first round pick on any of these positions, just that they were holes on the roster. I completely agree that a first round RB is not a good use of draft capital (unless it's just a steal). They might address this in the 2nd.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

LG - Would a first round LG help the team?  Definitely.  Is it the best use of our resources?  That's highly debatable.  We already have two high first round picks on the line, and a bunch of our cap dedicated to Trent Williams, Morgan Moses and Brandon Scherff already.  Scherff's going to want a raise coming up too.  Adding a first round LG would definitely upgrade the unit but I think we'd be hard pressed to extend that player once his rookie deal was up.  How could we possibly dedicate that much of our cap to the Oline alone?  

Getting that 1st round guard could make it so they could let Scherff walk in two years time (remember they do have the 5th year option).

Just now, MKnight82 said:

NT - If we pull the trigger on Payne you aren't going to see any complaints from me.  But the reality is spending a first round pick in the modern nfl on a 2 down run stuffer is not an efficient use of our draft resources.  Ideally we would select a high quality NT in the mid to later rounds.  

I don't disagree that a two down run stuffer in the 1st is a waste of resources. However, if they want to continue the farce of running a 3-4 at least a third of the time, they need to address the position. Since they just tossed away one of the mid round picks, they're going to have to either commit early or gamble late.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

MLB - This is only a first round need if Zach Brown leaves.  We aren't going to draft a first round MLB with Zach Brown and Mason Foster under contract, and we have decent depth here with Spaight and JHC.  I can understand the argument for upgrading Mason Foster with a first round talent (especially if the right one was one the board); however, I believe the front office likely pitched Foster on returning with a chance to start.  Paying Mason Foster to be a backup on the bench, one that doesn't play special teams, isn't a very efficient use of resources either.  

If Brown re-signs, then you're right that this becomes a non-need. I'm just not sure they are going to re-sign Brown.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

WR - I can't argue this position.  We obviously need an upgrade at one of the starting WR positions.  However, since Doctson is still young and developing, I think its very likely we target a veteran WR in free agency to balance out his youth and inexperience.  That's just my hunch.  Another issue is that this is a pretty weak WR draft class.  

While the draft class for WRs might be weak, there's a decent chance that they could come away with one of the top guys. Whereas you might be down on the draft class, I'm not all that gung ho about the free agent WR options. I'd argue they've already used their "one big splash" card in trading for Alex Smith.

4 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

CB - We've got Dunbar and Moreau to battle for the #2 role.  Dunbar has been solid and Moreau was getting first round chatter last year but "fell" due to injury concerns.  We have resources already invested in both, the most efficient use of them is to give one of them a chance to take that #2 role.  We do need an upgrade in the slot, but I'd argue that isn't a position you fill with a first round pick.  

Can we both agree that this is risky? If they had Breeland under contract (not as a free agent), I wouldn't have mentioned CB. Had they not traded Fuller, I wouldn't have mentioned CB. However, losing their 2nd and 3rd corners and then having to rely on three guys (Holsey as well) with only a handful of starts between them is gambling. To be fair, this may be the same situation as my comment with Anderson at ROLB if they trade Smith away: they've got needs elsewhere so they roll with the patch job and hope it holds.

[MKnight82]

3 minutes ago, Woz said:

Going to go slightly out of order here: I didn't say they had to use a first round pick on any of these positions, just that they were holes on the roster. I completely agree that a first round RB is not a good use of draft capital (unless it's just a steal). They might address this in the 2nd.

No you didn't say first round pick but if we're hypothetically trying to upgrade the ROLB position that is likely going to have to be done in the first round.  Based on recent comments from the F.O., it sounds like they might not address RB at all.  

5 minutes ago, Woz said:

Getting that 1st round guard could make it so they could let Scherff walk in two years time (remember they do have the 5th year option).

Is that what we want though?  I mean why intentionally try to replace a guy who's already a pretty good player (before anyone tries to turn this around on me, IMO Scherff is a far superior football player compared to Preston Smith)?  Now I'm not as in love with Scherff as some other people (I don't see how a team that struggles so much to run the ball can have people calling their RG one of the best in football) but he's quite obviously talented.  Spending the #5 overall pick on an OG isn't ideal but when we did so you have to think what he's become is what we were hoping for with that pick.  

8 minutes ago, Woz said:

I don't disagree that a two down run stuffer in the 1st is a waste of resources. However, if they want to continue the farce of running a 3-4 at least a third of the time, they need to address the position. Since they just tossed away one of the mid round picks, they're going to have to either commit early or gamble late

Every year there seems to be solid NT prospects still available in the 4th or 5th rounds.  Recent high profile NT prospects like Danny Shelton haven't made big impacts, heck even Dontari Poe could be on his 3rd team this offseason (a possible free agent option for us btw).  

13 minutes ago, Woz said:

If Brown re-signs, then you're right that this becomes a non-need. I'm just not sure they are going to re-sign Brown.

Ok, that's fair.  However, answer me this.  Which is creating a bigger hole on your roster, trading an at his best middle of the road ROLB for a mid round pick or letting a pro-bowler MLB walk for nothing?  

14 minutes ago, Woz said:

While the draft class for WRs might be weak, there's a decent chance that they could come away with one of the top guys. Whereas you might be down on the draft class, I'm not all that gung ho about the free agent WR options. I'd argue they've already used their "one big splash" card in trading for Alex Smith.

We'll have cap space to make another big splash in FA.  Based on our history, free agent WRs seem to be the way to go for us.  We are pretty terrible at drafting WRs.  

15 minutes ago, Woz said:

Can we both agree that this is risky? If they had Breeland under contract (not as a free agent), I wouldn't have mentioned CB. Had they not traded Fuller, I wouldn't have mentioned CB. However, losing their 2nd and 3rd corners and then having to rely on three guys (Holsey as well) with only a handful of starts between them is gambling. To be fair, this may be the same situation as my comment with Anderson at ROLB if they trade Smith away: they've got needs elsewhere so they roll with the patch job and hope it holds.

Its definitely risky but you can't have a first round pick playing at every position.  Moreau was drafted in the 3rd round, that high of a pick (if you're doing things right) should develop into a starting caliber player.  Dunbar isn't awful, he should be the back up plan.  Moreau should  be plan A, if he fails we can limp by with Dunbar for a year then address the position next year.  I think you've gotta give Moreau a shot though.  

[Woz]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Ok, that's fair.  However, answer me this.  Which is creating a bigger hole on your roster, trading an at his best middle of the road ROLB for a mid round pick or letting a pro-bowler MLB walk for nothing? 

You say that like this front office is sane.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

We'll have cap space to make another big splash in FA.  Based on our history, free agent WRs seem to be the way to go for us.  We are pretty terrible at drafting WRs.

Gambler's fallacy there.

Also, they'll only have the space if they don't franchise Cousins. See my first point.

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Its definitely risky but you can't have a first round pick playing at every position.  Moreau was drafted in the 3rd round, that high of a pick (if you're doing things right) should develop into a starting caliber player.  Dunbar isn't awful, he should be the back up plan.  Moreau should  be plan A, if he fails we can limp by with Dunbar for a year then address the position next year.  I think you've gotta give Moreau a shot though.  

That's a fair argument. Of course, this can just as easily be applied to Anderson and having him take over at ROLB instead of addressing it this year (he was a round earlier than Moreau).

 

Where we agree is: "if they can get draft value for Smith (2nd, upper half of 3rd), then trading him might be the right play." (me: question is whether they can get that value for him)
Where we disagree is: "if they trade Smith, they should fill his position immediately in the draft." (me: roll the dice with Anderson; caveat: if there is a somewhat substantial value pick, fill it)

[turtle28]

There’s just no reason to believe that someone we may draft is going to be that much better than Smith. Smith is a good player, who has had flashes of greatness in first 3 years.

I get that people may think that’s easy to find an upgrade but there is just no guarantee. This is the same argument as to why keeping Cousins or trading for a vet like Alex Smith is better than drafting a college kid early and just handing the team to them.

I don’t buy into the hope that some  college kid is going to come in and be better than this teams leading pass rusher as far as qb pressures since he’s been drafted. Sure, it may happen, but that would be for when we had a hole at the OLB position, not when we already have a decent player there.

[MKnight82]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

There’s just no reason to believe that someone we may draft is going to be that much better than Smith. Smith is a good player, who has had flashes of greatness in first 3 years.

This is an absolute joke of a statement.  

[footy_29]

You're in a very small group of people with regard to this opinion MKnight.
You're either right and everyone is wrong, or vice versa.

Preston Smith for Haason Reddick. 


 

[MKnight82]

51 minutes ago, footy_29 said:

You're in a very small group of people with regard to this opinion MKnight.
You're either right and everyone is wrong, or vice versa.

Preston Smith for Haason Reddick. 


 

I can understand why people would have the opinion that he’s an average player, that coupled with his age and his draft status I understand why people make the argument to hold on to him.  My opinion is obviously twofold, I disagree that he’s even an average player and I’m projecting that I don’t believe he’ll improve.  I’m doing this because we need to make a decision on his contract status after this year. 

But im sorry, stating that he’s a good player with “flashes of greatness” is an absolutely ridiculous statement to me.  

[Jlash]

Pass rushers are always important, elite or not. Guys like Chris Long, Derek Barnett and Vinny Curry had such big moments for us in the playoffs and they aren't elite players. 

[MKnight82]

4 minutes ago, Jlash said:

Pass rushers are always important, elite or not. Guys like Chris Long, Derek Barnett and Vinny Curry had such big moments for us in the playoffs and they aren't elite players. 

He’s going to need a contract extension though, and he isn’t worth one.

[Jlash]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

He’s going to need a contract extension though, and he isn’t worth one.

How can you say that when you have no idea what the extension would be? Right now you're saying he's not even worth a roster spot.

[MKnight82]

17 minutes ago, Jlash said:

How can you say that when you have no idea what the extension would be? Right now you're saying he's not even worth a roster spot.

That isn’t what I’m saying at all.  The redskins aren’t going to win the Super Bowl this year.  Smith isn’t under contract beyond this season and imo hasn’t played at a level that warrants an extension.

[Jlash]

1 minute ago, MKnight82 said:

imo hasn’t played at a level that warrants an extension.

Again, without knowing what the extension would entail.

[MKnight82]

2 hours ago, Jlash said:

Again, without knowing what the extension would entail.

Are you trying to argue he will be cheap?  Because that just supports the fact that he’s a mediocre player.  Also you’re ignoring the fact that the redskins could get trade value for him now, but not when he’s a free agent next year.

[Jlash]

42 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Are you trying to argue he will be cheap?

I'm arguing you have zero context for "he's not worth it" when you don't really what the worth is.

 

Other than that, he's a 25 year old pass rusher, who learned a new position coming into the league, doing ok for himself and you want to dump him based on hypotheticals. Do you, man.