Draft Rumors

[Soko]

12 hours ago, Tugboat said:

It honestly wouldn't shock me...especially from the Browns (though maybe this time it's different?).  But i don't get this at all.  If you want a QB and value him higher than 4, and you have the 1st pick...just take the guy at #1 man.  Why goof around and get cute with it, if you're committed enough to trade up from #4 to get that guy?  Just seems like the same sort of thinking that caused them to worry overly about "getting value"...by passing on Wentz in the first place.

Well, it’s at least a little plausible. 

If the Browns really, really, really want Allen+Barkley, that’d be the way to do it. If they take Allen #1, then it’s possible NYG take Barkley with no questions asked. If Barkley is gone, they may be more inclined to trade back. 

It’s risky but not out of the realm of possibility IMO.

[Iamcanadian]

16 hours ago, Tugboat said:

You seem really convinced there's a clear hierarchy of QBs in this draft.  Even though we've seen and heard of clear indications that this isn't necessarily the case.  Lamar Jackson being the obvious big wildcard in that, but we've had all sorts of reports that different teams prefer different guys even among the rest of the group.

I think it's entirely possible we could see at least 4, maybe even 5 teams walk away from the draft with one of their Top-2 ranked QBs.  That's what makes this QB class, and draft in general so intriguing right now.

Tugboat, I have been at this game for around 65 years and have learned that any rumours about team's choices prior to the draft almost always turn out to be false, it is an attempt to confuse the issue and hope for a better result, it is an attempt to try and get weak FO's to make the wrong choices and sometimes it works, but for the most part, you can be sure, that most FO's have a very clear picture of who the best QB is and in what order they would pick them.

The only real wildcard might be Allen, his accuracy flaws were quite evident during the season, but he has had 2 month's work under a pro type QB coach and he will display the results at his pro day and he could go up or down depending on the performance. Teams are looking for a reason to draft this guy and if he shows a solid improvement after his training, he will get drafted pretty high, if it is just more of the same, he could fall a bit.

Since we do not know for absolute certainty, what the Giants and the Colts are thinking at this time, it is a difficult draft to predict. I believe the Giants will trade out of #2 and get a ton of picks for it, and for the Colts, it will come down to what the doctor's say about Luck's health, if it is a thumbs up, they will also trade the pick for more assets, if it is a thumbs down, they will draft a QB at pick #3.

As for the Giant's pick, it will be a bidding war between Denver and the Jets and if the loser is lucky, they will trade for the Colts pick, should it be available, otherwise they may have to gamble and draft Mayfield higher than he deserves, leaving Arizona and Buffalo to battle it out for Jackson.

Keenum may come into play, but I believe only Arizona has the type of weather that would suit him, Buffalo, the Jets and Denver all require a strong armed QB to play in their weather and Keenum does not suit their needs.

As you can see, I have done a lot of research and using my experience, to work out the possibilities. I am not saying it is written in stone, but I believe it is a reasonable scenario and we will just have to wait till draft day to see how it all unfolds!!!

[Iamcanadian]

On 3/8/2018 at 1:49 PM, Broncofan said:

You're not including MIA - that's the other team that could go QB at 1.11.  I think Mayfield's floor is 1.15 - but I think he could easily go to NYJ if the first 3 QB are gone, or MIA at 1.11.  In that event, then it's down to Jackson at 1.15 (or earlier if it entices a team to try to move in front of ARI).   Now, if only 3 QB's go before 1.15, then ARI probably happily takes Mayfield...leaving BUF with Jackson in their sights.  But it's all out of their hands barring a crazy move into the NYJ area of picks - which is a steep price to pay for the 4th/5th QB in this draft).

This is probably one of the most unpredictable drafts in a while in trying to figure out the top 15 picks - usually there are some easy locks, it's hard to pidgeon hole any pick right now.   Trying to predict the order of how it will go down is insane.

I just think Miami will go with Tannehill at least one more season and hope for the best, if not, they are likely in a total rebuild and I just think they will gamble with Tannehill. I could be easily wrong, but that is my current thinking.

I can see lots of scenario's where the Jets or even Denver ends up with Mayfield, selecting him far higher than he is ranked, but sometimes need overcomes rankings, especially when QB's are involved.

[Broncofan]

Just now, Iamcanadian said:

I just think Miami will go with Tannehill at least one more season and hope for the best, if not, they are likely in a total rebuild and I just think they will gamble with Tannehill. I could be easily wrong, but that is my current thinking.

I can see lots of scenario's where the Jets or even Denver ends up with Mayfield, selecting him far higher than he is ranked, but sometimes need overcomes rankings, especially when QB's are involved.

I can say with absolute confidence that whatever MIA GM Tannebaum is thinking it’s not how you or I would conventionally think.   

[Iamcanadian]

16 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

Not necessarily a rumor, but you look at all the "insiders" out there who are beginning to release their post combine mocks and they all have Darnold/Allen as the two top QBs taken in varying orders followed by Rosen/Mayfield also in varying orders. Jeremiah and Zierlien routinely go out of their way to state how mocks are what he's hearing vs. what he feels and both have Allen as the 2nd QB off the board (FWIW, Jeremiah ranks Allen as his 4th best QB; Zierlien has him 5th). Others who have jumped on the bandwagon: McShay, Reuter, Miller (I know, I know), Iyer, Mayock, Kiper, Banks... the list keeps growing, which makes you wonder if these guys are hearing something. Why else would they flip-flop Rosen and Allen?

IMO, teams are looking for any reason to move Allen up as high as possible. They are all in love with that arm and he may prove them correct. I'm guessing his pro day will decide the issue. We all know his accuracy problems, but I am guessing again, that for the last 2 month, he has been in training with a pro type QB coach and will display the results at his pro day. If he has made substantial improvement, he could even go #1 overall, but if it is just more of the same, he could possibly slide behind Mayfield, we are just going to have to wait to see the real results, till then it is all guesswork. 

[Iamcanadian]

21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

That's fair, but usually we know stuff like Garrett (or Clowney, etc.) going 1.1, or Solomon Thomas top 3.... when it's a QB draft, we know that Goff-Wentz are 1-2, or Winston-Mariota.  This year, we can't even agree who the 1st/2nd guys are overall, and certainly are all over the place on the 1-2-3 order for the top 3 QB's.  That type of uncertainty is usually seen in the 2nd half of Rd1, not the very top.

It is very confusing for a # of reasons, first there are 3 QB's in the running for the top 3 choices in the draft, that is already a very unusual situation, second, will either or both the Giants and the Colts be willing to trade their picks, I suspect the Giants will make a trade, but the Colts are a whole different ballgame, with Luck's health up in the air, so we will not get that decision till draft day.

Some people are overly enamored by Barkley, but reality shows that Hunt and Kamara came in round 3, so would a team really use a top 3 pick on Barkley, unlikely IMO, but I could see Cleveland at #4 doing it, having got their QB at #1 overall, mostly because Fitzpatrick and Chubb are not ranked nearly as high as Barkley, as the top 5 position players seem to lack real stud guarantees and Barkley is definitely a top stud.

So it is not surprising that drafting top 3 and top 5 will remain up in the air till draft day.

[Chargers]

13 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Yeah.  That too really.  Nothing like a raw guy with a somewhat problematic hero complex to begin with, being asked to come in and save a zero win franchise that seems to chew QBs up and spit them out better than anyone else around.  With a HC who i'd put zero faith in developing a guy like Allen successfully.  

Hero complex? You mean when he said he'd love to turn the Browns around? I don't see the problem with thats what you'd want from your QB.

[Chargers]

5 minutes ago, Iamcanadian said:

It is very confusing for a # of reasons, first there are 3 QB's in the running for the top 3 choices in the draft, that is already a very unusual situation, second, will either or both the Giants and the Colts be willing to trade their picks, I suspect the Giants will make a trade, but the Colts are a whole different ballgame, with Luck's health up in the air, so we will not get that decision till draft day.

Some people are overly enamored by Barkley, but reality shows that Hunt and Kamara came in round 3, so would a team really use a top 3 pick on Barkley, unlikely IMO, but I could see Cleveland at #4 doing it, having got their QB at #1 overall, mostly because Fitzpatrick and Chubb are not ranked nearly as high as Barkley, as the top 5 position players seem to lack real stud guarantees and Barkley is definitely a top stud.

So it is not surprising that drafting top 3 and top 5 will remain up in the air till draft day.

Elliott, Fournette, and Gurley all went Top 10, no reason to mess around with this Barkley is Top 10 lock.

[Iamcanadian]

1 hour ago, Kip Smithers said:

If teams are gonna pass on Rosen because essentially he sounds too mature then NFL teams are dumber than I thought. I have never understood this insatiable need for players, most notably QBs, to hide their personality. Why do people prefer false humility over real honesty? 

Rosen is gonna make some teams look like fools.

Rosen only problem is his 2 concussions and a separated shoulder. He plays a lot like Bradford and we have all seen how his career progressed re: injuries and Rosen might just follow his path. 
It has nothing to do with his personality, although there are a few questions about it, but except for those injuries, he would definitely be in the running to go #1 overall, but no team likes to draft anybody top 5 or even top 10, when they have had serious injuries. Most teams consider it just too big of a gamble.

[Tugboat]

1 hour ago, Classic said:

Hero complex? You mean when he said he'd love to turn the Browns around? I don't see the problem with thats what you'd want from your QB.

Nah.  I love that attitude thing, saying he wants to be the one to turn the Browns around and all that.  It's just about how that sort of thing manifests on the field. from one down to the next.  He's got more that a little bit of a tendency to try to be the hero, putting everything on his arm on any given snap.  Holding onto the ball too long, trusting his arm too much trying to make big plays happen when they're just not there, etc.  Rather than just living to fight another down.  Which leads to those real head scratching decisions, and a good deal of his famed inaccuracy.

It's a habit that whatever team grabs him, is going to have to break him of...insomuch as you ever can break these gunslingers of that mentality.  Whereas Cleveland seems like they're just begging for a QB to come in and save the day with those sort of hero ball antics.  Which has the potential to be very bad, with a guy like Allen naturally inclined to that kind of ill-advised risktaking.

[Tugboat]

2 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Tugboat, I have been at this game for around 65 years and have learned that any rumours about team's choices prior to the draft almost always turn out to be false, it is an attempt to confuse the issue and hope for a better result, it is an attempt to try and get weak FO's to make the wrong choices and sometimes it works, but for the most part, you can be sure, that most FO's have a very clear picture of who the best QB is and in what order they would pick them.

The only real wildcard might be Allen, his accuracy flaws were quite evident during the season, but he has had 2 month's work under a pro type QB coach and he will display the results at his pro day and he could go up or down depending on the performance. Teams are looking for a reason to draft this guy and if he shows a solid improvement after his training, he will get drafted pretty high, if it is just more of the same, he could fall a bit.

Since we do not know for absolute certainty, what the Giants and the Colts are thinking at this time, it is a difficult draft to predict. I believe the Giants will trade out of #2 and get a ton of picks for it, and for the Colts, it will come down to what the doctor's say about Luck's health, if it is a thumbs up, they will also trade the pick for more assets, if it is a thumbs down, they will draft a QB at pick #3.

As for the Giant's pick, it will be a bidding war between Denver and the Jets and if the loser is lucky, they will trade for the Colts pick, should it be available, otherwise they may have to gamble and draft Mayfield higher than he deserves, leaving Arizona and Buffalo to battle it out for Jackson.

Keenum may come into play, but I believe only Arizona has the type of weather that would suit him, Buffalo, the Jets and Denver all require a strong armed QB to play in their weather and Keenum does not suit their needs.

As you can see, I have done a lot of research and using my experience, to work out the possibilities. I am not saying it is written in stone, but I believe it is a reasonable scenario and we will just have to wait till draft day to see how it all unfolds!!!

I just don't know what most of that has to do with the idea that different teams absolutely 100% WILL have different draft lists, preferences, orders.  Including QBs in a year like this.  I'd say it's fair to project most teams will have Darnold and Rosen at the top of their QB rankings, and as a result, they're by far the most likely to be the first two QBs off the board on draft day...but i would practically guarantee that there are teams out there with somebody else in that Top-2, to say nothing of how the rest of their board rounds out.

[Broncofan]

What today shows is that anyone who thinks they can predict what Dorsey will do for 1.1 and 1.4 with a high degree of certainty is kidding themselves.   

[LinderFournette]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

What today shows is that anyone who thinks they can predict what Dorsey will do for 1.1 and 1.4 with a high degree of certainty is kidding themselves.   

barkely or chubb is pick 1.  

4 probable trade down to bills perhaps or pick a qb.

[Don Roshi]

16 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

barkely or chubb is pick 1.  

4 probable trade down to bills perhaps or pick a qb.

I'll be very disappointed if we don't take a QB with pick one. We should take the QB Dorsey likes the most and see who's available at four.

[Jeezla]

57 minutes ago, Don Roshi said:

I'll be very disappointed if we don't take a QB with pick one. We should take the QB Dorsey likes the most and see who's available at four.

Nah you should somehow draft Barkley and Chubb, then take Lauletta aka Jimmy G 2.0 in the 3rd.